Just watching these highlights, pretty obviously confirm what I saw which is that Dell was actually amazing. Again, I have absolutely no confidence in Jones shutting out this game if he was in net. That poke check on Leipsic in particular is a play where I close my eyes and just can not visualize Jones doing anything other than getting scored on in that situation.
Updated numbers since Dell's debut in 2016-2017:
Player | SV% | 5v5 SV% | dSV% | 5v5 dSV% | GAA | Points Percentage | Shutouts Per Start |
Aaron Dell | 0.921 | 93.13% | 1.17% | 1.26% | 2.34 | 0.663 | 0.109 |
Martin Jones | 0.911 | 91.20% | 0.31% | -0.59% | 2.53 | 0.587 | 0.043 |
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For those who don't know dSV%, it is the goaltender's expected save percentage (based on the quality of each shot against, not a perfect model) subtracted from their actual save percentage. So, if a goaltender is facing a ton of particularly dangerous shots, and is expected to only have a .910 SV%, but they actually have a .920 SV%, their dSV% would be 1.o%. Jones and Dell have roughly the same exact expected save percentage.
Dell's expected save percentage is 0.08% higher at 5v5 and 0.13% higher at all situations, which tells us something that we can already reasonably expect: Dell plays against weaker teams, and faces a slightly weaker quality of shots, but Dell plays significantly better against those slightly weaker shots than Jones does against those slightly stronger shots.
I'm willing to say that these numbers aren't perfect, and that Jones probably actually is facing a higher percentage of dangerous shots than the numbers suggest, but the difference in the quality of shots that they face is nowhere near enough to explain the difference in save percentage. I think we can reasonably say that more than half of the difference between the two is due to quality of play, more than anything else.
Remember, they are playing on the same team. Yes, Dell plays against weaker teams, but it's not as if Jones is playing behind the 1992 San Jose Sharks and Dell is playing behind the 2003 New Jersey Devils. The last thing that I will add is that I do watch plenty of these guys, and that Dell certainly looks better.
Just one last caveat: Points percentage is based on the number of each decision the goalie took. So, in a game like our first game in Vegas last year, where Jones got the start and Dell got the OTL, Dell got 1 point of 2 possible in 1 game, and therefore Dell's points percentage for that game would be 50% and Jones' points percentage would not be affected by that game. Keep in mind that this is particularly flattering to Jones as he is exempt from scrutiny in games where he put the team behind early and Dell saved his bacon.
Dell needs a fair chance to become the starter.