Moving on from Jones?

[SharksAddict]

Hot take: I really don't think goaltending is a position worth allocating a ton of cap space too. I don't think Jones is bad, but I think we could get away with a lower paid tandem.

100% agree. The "elite" goaltenders tends to change every season. Not many goalies consistently stay at a high level for more than a few seasons.

That being said, you also have several teams with atrocious goaltending so mediocre goalies end up getting big dollars.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Jones was good...but Pavs, Couture, Thornton, and Burns led us to the finals.

Seriously, are we forgetting this? What other time in Sharks history did the Sharks have a Norris Finalist, an elite 2nd all-team center, a #2C scoring 30 playoff points, a #1RW scoring 14 playoff goals, and a shut-down defenseman like Vlasic who shut down every single team’s top player? The answer is never. Holy shit, I am so sick of DeBoer and Jones getting any sort of credit for us making the SCF. Any former Sharks coach/goalie duo that we incessantly shit on on this forum would probably have also made the SCF with that loaded ass roster.

DeBoer pretty much just had to say “48, 19, 8” and Jones pretty much just had to stand there for us to make the SCF. Now, over 2 years later, you guys think that whatever happened then

People confuse Jones’ SCF performance with his performance throughout the entirety of those playoffs. He was a solid but largely unspectacular goaltender in each of the first 3 rounds who played behind a team that was on another level from their opponents. In the SCF, he was great for a total of 6 games. Good on him. Over two years and over 150 games later, it appears that his absolute peak was that SCF.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd be fine with moving Jones after this year, simply for cap reasons if EK65 returns. He's a solid goalie but slightly overpaid IMO.

However, barring a strong finish to this season, I think you may be hard pressed to find a taker on his contract. The UFA market for goalies this year is particularly stronger than usual so it'd be another obstacle to moving him for any real value.

Any average level starter is going to get paid that much money so either you find someone and ride it out with that or you better have a pipeline of goalies churning out quality netminders. Sharks haven't done that in over fifteen years.

 

[SjMilhouse]

I completely disagree that Jones wasn't instrumental in making the finals having been to a majority of the home games that run including 2 of the 3 finals games. He delivered like no other Sharks goalie has been able to in the past and stole a few games. He's the ONLY reason the finals went 6 games. He played out of his damn mind vs the pens and almost got us a game 7

 

[undercovernerd]

Pitchforks. Period.

 

[OrrNumber4]

People confuse Jones’ SCF performance with his performance throughout the entirety of those playoffs. He was a solid but largely unspectacular goaltender in each of the first 3 rounds who played behind a team that was on another level from their opponents. In the SCF, he was great for a total of 6 games. Good on him. Over two years and over 150 games later, it appears that his absolute peak was that SCF.

I wanted to highlight this since I feel like this happens a lot.

Under one model, Jones's 6 SCF games are worth 96 regular season games. Even in that scenario, you are looking at one absolutely superb season surrounded by nothing really spectacular.

In the EDM game, it was hard to fault him on any one of the specific goals, but I'd argue that an NHL goaltender makes one or two of those tough saves. I don't think Jones had a single big save in that game; compare that to Koskinen who had a couple.

 

[Bizz]

Last night's game just tanked whatever trade value Jones had left. It's pretty much Dell or bust at this point.

Important divisional game after a shutout by the backup and he puts up an .826. Pathetic.

I don't want to hear about how Jones "took us to the Final" in 2016. Matt Murray won the damn thing and he's now riding the pine in Pittsburgh. But that's the difference between a coaching staff that knows what they're doing and PDB.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Time to start getting Dell into games and let Jones be the backup. Let it really sink in and maybe he will wake up.

But that said...geez we are one of the top in the division. Expectations are way beyond normal this season.

 

[stator]

Holy ****, I am so sick of DeBoer and Jones getting any sort of credit for us making the SCF. Any former Sharks coach/goalie duo that we incessantly **** on on this forum would probably have also made the SCF with that loaded ass roster.

I think with Niemi, the Sharks would not have made it to the SCF. Although, I agree with you about Pete as he was mostly along for the ride as a first year coach.

Now that he had the time to remake the system into his, I don't like what I see. This season and last season. Not only does Pete need to go, so too must Spott.

The Sharks are stacked in talent and depth. Probably among the top 3 teams in the league in this regard. It's just that Pete and his staff cannot manage all that talent and depth properly.

What happened to the PDB of the first season?

 

[DG93]

Time to start getting Dell into games and let Jones be the backup. Let it really sink in and maybe he will wake up.

But that said...geez we are one of the top in the division. Expectations are way beyond normal this season.

Division is a tire fire, so not sure being one of the best teams in it is much of an accomplishment...

I think with Niemi, the Sharks would not have made it to the SCF. Although, I agree with you about Pete as he was mostly along for the ride as a first year coach.

Now that he had the time to remake the system into his, I don't like what I see. This season and last season. Not only does Pete need to go, so too must Spott.

The Sharks are stacked in talent and depth. Probably among the top 3 teams in the league in this regard. It's just that Pete and his staff cannot manage all that talent and depth properly.

What happened to the PDB of the first season?

Jones was an average goalie in the first 3 rounds year - the Sharks' star players were playing at a ridiculously high level. The only difference with Niemi in net would have been the Sharks getting swept in the final instead of losing in 6 games.

 

[Barrie22]

Division is a tire fire, so not sure being one of the best teams in it is much of an accomplishment...



Jones was an average goalie in the first 3 rounds year - the Sharks' star players were playing at a ridiculously high level. The only difference with Niemi in net would have been the Sharks getting swept in the final instead of losing in 6 games.

The sharks are still tied for 2nd in the conference and 4th in the league. 12th in the league in points% and 5th in the conference.

No matter how you slice or dice it the sharks are still one of the top teams in the conference.

And you can't say oh but they play the pacific division so they ofc are. Of the 22 games played 4 have been in the division games. With 2 of those games being games 1 and 2 on the season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The Sharks position in their conference and the NHL is directly a result of the number of games they’ve played and absolutely nothing else. They’re 12th in the NHL in points percentage, 6th in the conference in points percentage, and 2nd in the division in points percentage. 6th of 15 is not something I would say justifies them being called “one of the top teams in the conference.” They’re 13th in goal differential and 21st in 5V5 GF%. Minnesota, Montreal, Buffalo, Columbus, and Colorado all have a higher points percentage than San Jose.

Everything about these numbers say “mediocre team” and that’s absolutely unacceptable given the reasonable expectations for this team.

 

[DG93]

That's one of the most ridiculous assertions you've made here and that says a lot. Holy cow man...

Not sure why it's ridiculous when Vlasic-Braun, Burns (Martin should be on here too I guess), the Hertl-Jumbo-Pavs top line, and Couture playing out of their minds is what got them to the cup final. Jones was fantastic in the SCF, but he was merely above-average in the first 3 rounds. DeBoer icing a trash bottom-6 (outside of Marleau/Ward) and bottom pairing definitely didn't have much to do with it.

 

[boylerroom]

Here's all I can say about Jones.

He's usually not the reason we lose but he's also almost never the reason we win. He's just sort of there.

When was the last time Martin Jones stole a game we shouldn't have won? I can't remember one since the SC Final.

It's rare that cup winning teams don't have a goalie that doesn't do that now and again.

 

[Herschel]

Here's all I can say about Jones.

He's usually not the reason we lose but he's also almost never the reason we win. He's just sort of there.
When was the last time Martin Jones stole a game we shouldn't have won? I can't remember one since the SC Final.
It's rare that cup winning teams don't have a goalie that doesn't do that now and again.

Jones was excellent in the first round last year against the Ducks and Games 3 & 4 both fit that description. As did his shutout against Vegas.

Gibson was unable to match the play of Jones, who had a shutout in Game 1, set a San Jose playoff record with 45 regulation saves in Game 3 and then might have been even better in the clincher that gave the Sharks their second sweep in franchise history after also doing it in the first round in 2013 against Vancouver.

I do agree that so far this season he has yet to steal a game. Really the Sharks have maybe one win this season where they weren't the better team.

 

[undercovernerd]

Jones + Braun DW go out there and make magic happen.

 

[one2gamble]

lol.....

 

[Negatively Positive]

Jones + Braun DW go out there and make magic happen.

Jones + Braun + Deboer for Greiss + Nelson + Trotz

 

[Bizz]

send a message.

start Dell tomorrow night too.

 

[Tw1ster]

Gotta ride Dell as a starter until he falters. Maybe Joner will come back motivated

 

[SactoShark]

Jones was good...but Pavs, Couture, Thornton, and Burns led us to the finals.

Couture should have won the Conn Smythe.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Just watching these highlights, pretty obviously confirm what I saw which is that Dell was actually amazing. Again, I have absolutely no confidence in Jones shutting out this game if he was in net. That poke check on Leipsic in particular is a play where I close my eyes and just can not visualize Jones doing anything other than getting scored on in that situation.

Updated numbers since Dell's debut in 2016-2017:

Player	SV%	5v5 SV%	dSV%	5v5 dSV%	GAA	Points Percentage	Shutouts Per Start
Aaron Dell	0.921	93.13%	1.17%	1.26%	2.34	0.663	0.109
Martin Jones	0.911	91.20%	0.31%	-0.59%	2.53	0.587	0.043

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For those who don't know dSV%, it is the goaltender's expected save percentage (based on the quality of each shot against, not a perfect model) subtracted from their actual save percentage. So, if a goaltender is facing a ton of particularly dangerous shots, and is expected to only have a .910 SV%, but they actually have a .920 SV%, their dSV% would be 1.o%. Jones and Dell have roughly the same exact expected save percentage.

Dell's expected save percentage is 0.08% higher at 5v5 and 0.13% higher at all situations, which tells us something that we can already reasonably expect: Dell plays against weaker teams, and faces a slightly weaker quality of shots, but Dell plays significantly better against those slightly weaker shots than Jones does against those slightly stronger shots.

I'm willing to say that these numbers aren't perfect, and that Jones probably actually is facing a higher percentage of dangerous shots than the numbers suggest, but the difference in the quality of shots that they face is nowhere near enough to explain the difference in save percentage. I think we can reasonably say that more than half of the difference between the two is due to quality of play, more than anything else.

Remember, they are playing on the same team. Yes, Dell plays against weaker teams, but it's not as if Jones is playing behind the 1992 San Jose Sharks and Dell is playing behind the 2003 New Jersey Devils. The last thing that I will add is that I do watch plenty of these guys, and that Dell certainly looks better.

Just one last caveat: Points percentage is based on the number of each decision the goalie took. So, in a game like our first game in Vegas last year, where Jones got the start and Dell got the OTL, Dell got 1 point of 2 possible in 1 game, and therefore Dell's points percentage for that game would be 50% and Jones' points percentage would not be affected by that game. Keep in mind that this is particularly flattering to Jones as he is exempt from scrutiny in games where he put the team behind early and Dell saved his bacon.

Dell needs a fair chance to become the starter.

 

[undercovernerd]

Just watching these highlights, pretty obviously confirm what I saw which is that Dell was actually amazing. Again, I have absolutely no confidence in Jones shutting out this game if he was in net. That poke check on Leipsic in particular is a play where I close my eyes and just can not visualize Jones doing anything other than getting scored on in that situation.

Updated numbers since Dell's debut in 2016-2017:

Player	SV%	5v5 SV%	dSV%	5v5 dSV%	GAA	Points Percentage	Shutouts Per Start
Aaron Dell	0.921	93.13%	1.17%	1.26%	2.34	0.663	0.109
Martin Jones	0.911	91.20%	0.31%	-0.59%	2.53	0.587	0.043

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For those who don't know dSV%, it is the goaltender's expected save percentage (based on the quality of each shot against, not a perfect model) subtracted from their actual save percentage. So, if a goaltender is facing a ton of particularly dangerous shots, and is expected to only have a .910 SV%, but they actually have a .920 SV%, their dSV% would be 1.o%. Jones and Dell have roughly the same exact expected save percentage.

Dell's expected save percentage is 0.08% higher at 5v5 and 0.13% higher at all situations, which tells us something that we can already reasonably expect: Dell plays against weaker teams, and faces a slightly weaker quality of shots, but Dell plays significantly better against those slightly weaker shots than Jones does against those slightly stronger shots.

I'm willing to say that these numbers aren't perfect, and that Jones probably actually is facing a higher percentage of dangerous shots than the numbers suggest, but the difference in the quality of shots that they face is nowhere near enough to explain the difference in save percentage. I think we can reasonably say that more than half of the difference between the two is due to quality of play, more than anything else.

Remember, they are playing on the same team. Yes, Dell plays against weaker teams, but it's not as if Jones is playing behind the 1992 San Jose Sharks and Dell is playing behind the 2003 New Jersey Devils. The last thing that I will add is that I do watch plenty of these guys, and that Dell certainly looks better.

Just one last caveat: Points percentage is based on the number of each decision the goalie took. So, in a game like our first game in Vegas last year, where Jones got the start and Dell got the OTL, Dell got 1 point of 2 possible in 1 game, and therefore Dell's points percentage for that game would be 50% and Jones' points percentage would not be affected by that game. Keep in mind that this is particularly flattering to Jones as he is exempt from scrutiny in games where he put the team behind early and Dell saved his bacon.

Dell needs a fair chance to become the starter.

That poke check stood out to me and all I could say is “wow”

Agreed, see what Dell can do. I don’t see what bad would come out of it. Jones may come back stronger.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

That poke check stood out to me and all I could say is “wow”

Agreed, see what Dell can do. I don’t see what bad would come out of it. Jones may come back stronger.

Yeah, I was there live and got a pretty nice look at that poke check. I saw Virtanen (?) pull the puck in and was convinced he would score on a deke. I'm not here to hate on Jones, but I can't imagine Jones making that save.

People will cite the poor games that Dell played when Jones was injured but Dell was way overplayed with a workload that not even a workhorse NHL starting goaltender actually sees. I'll check the numbers in a bit and go over that to make sure I'm not just making shit up lol.

 

[mooncalf]

I was also at the game, thought Dell looked pretty great as he did his last start. I definitely think he should see more starts though I wouldn't go so far as to try him at 1A unless Jones continues to shit the bed. IMO, there are a couple of pretty big holes in Dell's game that would likely become more exposed were he to get the majority of starts: (1) a tendency to lose the net and (2) poor rebound control.