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Morgan Rielly

JT AM da real deal

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No one wants Karlsson anywhere close to the ice when a team is holding on to a 1 goal lead late in a game. To me that is what defines a #1 defense. If a team is pressing to tie a game and needs offense then he would be right near, if not at top, of my list.

Rielly is developing into a guy who is better at defending than Karlsson but not quite as offensively talented.
 

Joey Hoser

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Jan 8, 2008
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It goes to the defenseman with the most points, generally, with the occasional exception like Chara, or the year Doughty won.
 
BlueForever75

BlueForever75

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I don't see how you can give a Norris trophy to Burns or Karlsson when they are teammates and play with one another every given night.

The points they accumulate on the PP are with each other, so is one really better then the other. Or do they play off of one another?

I basically feel they cancel each other out in the race for the Norris this year. It goes to Giordano or Reilly.
 
Randy Randerson

Randy Randerson

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BlueForever75 said:
I don't see how you can give a Norris trophy to Burns or Karlsson when they are teammates and play with one another every given night.

The points they accumulate on the PP are with each other, so is one really better then the other. Or do they play off of one another?

I basically feel they cancel each other out in the race for the Norris this year. It goes to Giordano or Reilly.
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By years end I doubt it will be close, they will both overtake Rielly by a fair margin. Rielly's pace is absurd but he's doing it on unsustainable underlying numbers, shooting more than 200% of his career average and OIsh% of more than 150%, I'd guess he ends the year with 70-75pts with career years in both of those shooting % categories but that both will deflate. Burns and Karlsson have a real chance to sustain their scoring rates, both have normal-ish underlying numbers.

But I think some context is important - SJ was already so set up for their offense to run through the defensemen on the cycle that they went and got a second perennial norris candidate when they already had one, SJ is the best possession team (by CF%) in the NHL and generates the highest number of shot attempts for - they get the puck in the offense zone and set up shop, which is far more conducive to defensive scoring than doing so off the rush like Toronto often does (we're 12th in CF% and 5th in corsi shot attempts for), we rely far more on finishing plays efficiently than SJ does (which we should by virtue of our scoring talent). We were already so set up to score off the rush from clean RW zone entries that we went and got another top 10 center who's one of the best players in hockey at finishing from within the home plate area, and the right side of our defense is so weak that I'm sure the coaching staff is leery about intentionally getting the blueline involved in offensive zone possession more than is necessary. I also think that Rielly's defense partners often keep him from doing the thing he's best at offensively in joining the rush as a 4th forward because he needs to cover for them defensively. I think there's a good argument that Rielly would be more productive in SJ system than in Toronto's with all the underlying rates normalized

And I don't mean to bash Rielly, I don't think he's going to be in many Norris races in his career but if he's a perennial 60pt dman that can handle 1st line minutes and competition we should be thrilled at his money. The way the Leafs are built doesn't require Norris caliber defensemen to win
 

Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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The Beyonder said:
Burkie and the scouting staff don't look so ridiculous now for regarding him so highly.

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Lets be honest here, this is blowhard Burkie we are talking about

when a guy acts like that about most of his topics, he is bound to be right sooner or later and we fans should ignore his hard sells.

Remember this is the same guy that thought it was a wise idea to add Kessel to his line up and thought that they would be sooo good that those pick slots did not matter.

Yet they turned into slots #2 ,,32,, 9th
 
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diceman934

diceman934

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Randy Randerson said:
By years end I doubt it will be close, they will both overtake Rielly by a fair margin. Rielly's pace is absurd but he's doing it on unsustainable underlying numbers, shooting more than 200% of his career average and OIsh% of more than 150%, I'd guess he ends the year with 70-75pts with career years in both of those shooting % categories but that both will deflate. Burns and Karlsson have a real chance to sustain their scoring rates, both have normal-ish underlying numbers.

But I think some context is important - SJ was already so set up for their offense to run through the defensemen on the cycle that they went and got a second perennial norris candidate when they already had one, SJ is the best possession team (by CF%) in the NHL and generates the highest number of shot attempts for - they get the puck in the offense zone and set up shop, which is far more conducive to defensive scoring than doing so off the rush like Toronto often does (we're 12th in CF% and 5th in corsi shot attempts for), we rely far more on finishing plays efficiently than SJ does (which we should by virtue of our scoring talent). We were already so set up to score off the rush from clean RW zone entries that we went and got another top 10 center who's one of the best players in hockey at finishing from within the home plate area, and the right side of our defense is so weak that I'm sure the coaching staff is leery about intentionally getting the blueline involved in offensive zone possession more than is necessary. I also think that Rielly's defense partners often keep him from doing the thing he's best at offensively in joining the rush as a 4th forward because he needs to cover for them defensively. I think there's a good argument that Rielly would be more productive in SJ system than in Toronto's with all the underlying rates normalized

And I don't mean to bash Rielly, I don't think he's going to be in many Norris races in his career but if he's a perennial 60pt dman that can handle 1st line minutes and competition we should be thrilled at his money. The way the Leafs are built doesn't require Norris caliber defensemen to win
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He is playing like a Norris caliber D man and I do not know where he will finish as to the top scoring D man in the League but he will be real close to the top.
 
Randy Randerson

Randy Randerson

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diceman934 said:
He is playing like a Norris caliber D man and I do not know where he will finish as to the top scoring D man in the League but he will be real close to the top.
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I think he's getting Norris caliber results on a bit less than that caliber of play riding some unsustainably good luck, at least offensively which would be his ticket to being in the Norris conversation. Again, I don't think that's a bad thing, he's a #1D by any measure at this point so it covers off a major need at a great cap hit and I'd love to see what he can do with a partner that's worthy of him
 
diceman934

diceman934

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Randy Randerson said:
I think he's getting Norris caliber results on a bit less than that caliber of play riding some unsustainably good luck, at least offensively which would be his ticket to being in the Norris conversation. Again, I don't think that's a bad thing, he's a #1D by any measure at this point so it covers off a major need at a great cap hit and I'd love to see what he can do with a partner that's worthy of him
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Maybe a refresh of his season would help as he is every bit as good as any D man in the League offensive. People seem to think it is luck because they seldom pay attention to the whole play.

Rielly is producing points because he is playing with better players. He carries the mail a lot and his timing to join the rush and jump in from the point shows just how good he has been.

Sorry but he has been fantastic all year and it is not luck. His point totals over his career would have been much higher had he had the green light all along. It is only now that he has that green light and he is proving that he can put up big numbers. This is a player who other coaches in big events have used as their numbed one D man. If it was an Olympic year he would be on team Canada yet his own team fans still do not give him his due!
 
Randy Randerson

Randy Randerson

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diceman934 said:
Maybe a refresh of his season would help as he is every bit as good as any D man in the League offensive. People seem to think it is luck because they seldom pay attention to the whole play.

Rielly is producing points because he is playing with better players. He carries the mail a lot and his timing to join the rush and jump in from the point shows just how good he has been.

Sorry but he has been fantastic all year and it is not luck. His point totals over his career would have been much higher had he had the green light all along. It is only now that he has that green light and he is proving that he can put up big numbers. This is a player who other coaches in big events have used as their numbed one D man. If it was an Olympic year he would be on team Canada yet his own team fans still do not give him his due!
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By "luck" I mean that a larger percentage of the shots he takes and the shots that are taken while he's on the ice are going in than will over a larger sample, I don't mean to say that he's untalented. OIsh%'s and Shooting %'s universally regress to a mean that's lower than what he's at for this year for all defensemen, and by quite a bit

the concepts of luck and talent aren't opposed to eachother either, a player can be both, and he has been both. To keep up his current paces, the volume of shots he takes and the volume of shots taken while he's on the ice will have to about double (a little more than that for the shots he takes, a little less for the shots that are taken while he's on the ice)

I do agree that he would make Team Canada if it were an Olympic year and he would deserve that, but I think his underlying numbers point to him falling out of the race to win an award that only one defenseman that make up all of Team Canada, Team Sweden, Team USA, Team Russia, Team Finland and all the rest of them gets to take home. He's a top 20 player at his position in the world sustainably, and a top 10 player at his position this year that's gotten a few more bounces than the rest of those top 10 players at the position in the world
 
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Superstar

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Randy Randerson said:
By "luck" I mean that a larger percentage of the shots he takes and the shots that are taken while he's on the ice are going in than will over a larger sample, I don't mean to say that he's untalented. OIsh%'s and Shooting %'s universally regress to a mean that's lower than what he's at for this year for all defensemen, and by quite a bit

the concepts of luck and talent aren't opposed to eachother either, a player can be both, and he has been both. To keep up his current paces, the volume of shots he takes and the volume of shots taken while he's on the ice will have to about double (a little more than that for the shots he takes, a little less for the shots that are taken while he's on the ice)

I do agree that he would make Team Canada if it were an Olympic year and he would deserve that, but I think his underlying numbers point to him falling out of the race to win an award that only one defenseman that make up all of Team Canada, Team Sweden, Team USA, Team Russia, Team Finland and all the rest of them gets to take home. He's a top 20 player at his position in the world sustainably, and a top 10 player at his position this year that's gotten a few more bounces than the rest of those top 10 players at the position in the world
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How does a top 5 pick offensive dman (and if the draft could be redone again, would have probably gone 1st overall) be lucky when he's just entering his prime and fulfilling to be the exact player he was drafted and developed to become? It's like making a point that he was lucky to be drafted 5th overall. His hard work, maturity and development has made him become the player he is, and he is still getting better. That is the big picture of why Rielly was drafted and we're seeing him blossom infront of our very eyes.

So other top offensive dmen like Karlsson are excellent, but Rielly is just lucky...
 
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