Morgan Rielly

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by meefer, Dec 21, 2018.

  1. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    to be even more specific - I was speaking directly to Randy's attention to the "underlying" numbers - when it comes to those numbers, I aggressively believe that you can't compare underlying numbers at par between guys who get elite top pair usage and those who get 2nd/3rd pair usage. You can't say that having better underlying numbers in much softer usage is actually a real advantage, imo.
     
  2. Finnish your Czech

    Finnish your Czech João Tavares

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    I'm sure he'll be complaining while sitting on a beach down south during his 3 day vacation.
     
  3. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    a couple more things:

    Rielly does in fact face the toughest even strength quality of competition on the team by opponent's ice time. His 29.76 es toiqoc does lead the leafs dmen (11th of the 144dmen with 500+ minutes), and by a lot over anyone but hainsey, who ranks 24th. Jake and Zaits are facing tougher competition than they did in previous years, but still rank well back in 53rd and 55th in toiqoc)

    And I'm not sure why you think Vlasic would or should get tougher usage than Rielly. Vlasic gets slightly tougher usage (ranks 7th), but gets demolished in that competition (-7.4cfrel, -9.1xgfrel).

    the natural comps between the two teams, based on opponents' ice time:

    (i'll add rough cf/xgf averages in brcakets0

    Rielly 11th (50.0pos%, -2.9rel) - Vlasic 7th (49.7pos%, -8.2rel)
    Hainsey 24th (48.2pos%, -5.2rel) - Braun 27th(49.0pos%, -9.1rel)

    These two pairs get legit elite top-pair usage, neither is doing especially well in it, but the leafs' pair is doing better, and Rielly clearly faring better than any of the others. And where Hainsey seems to be clearly dragging Rielly down, vlasic and braun seem more even in their ineptitude).

    Gardiner 53rd (53.0pos%, +2.1rel) - Karlsson 77th (59.9pos%, +7.9rel)
    Zaitsev 55th (51.1pos%, -0.9rel) - Burns 105th (56.7pos%, +2.2rel)

    Jake/Zaits actually are getting stronger competition than usual, borderline top pair usage, but still well behind the top pairs. But they're doing quite well in this usage. Meanwhile Karlsson and Burns are getting strictly 2nd pair type quality of competition. Burns is actually only getting borderline 2nd pair competition. To his credit, Karlsson is absolutely crushing it against secondary competition, but still, imo you just can't call that a clear advantage over guys who are facing elite usage. But at least I see the argument there. As for Burns, his underlying numbers are only good, not great, against not even clearcut top-4 competition. Burns should not be in any Norris conversation, and never should have been.

    But, like i said, it seems like SJ is finally figuring it out and dialling down Vlasic's usage (8th is tough but this guy has led the league by a healthy margin pretty much every year of the last 5), and dialling up Karlsson's.
     
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  4. Marshy

    Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    Could an All-Star team made up entirely of players not making the All-Star game, win the All-Star game?
     
  5. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    Rielly got hosed. I voted for him everyday for last man. Leaf nation some of you did not do your part.
     
  6. Ryan Michaels

    Ryan Michaels Registered User

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    Fair enough, if I drew inaccurate conclusions about Rielly's usage it was prompted by the gut feeling there wasnt a huge difference of usage among the top 4s and misunderstanding some charts, never been a advanced stats guru.

    Im also a proponent of the Norris going to a defensive stalwart but I think offensive output can reach a point where the player is impossible to ignore, regardless of context. But I appretiate your criticism, particulary of Burns who I have always had at least 5 dmen I, personally, would take over him.

    As for Vlasic over Rielly defensively Im just giving him the benefit of the doubt for his career body of work, though its concievable he is simply declining.
     
  7. Ryan Michaels

    Ryan Michaels Registered User

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    And this makes more sense, agreed.
     
  8. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    G got hosed too. At least they got Landy right.
     
  9. ImpartialNHLfan

    ImpartialNHLfan Registered User

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    Drai making the all stars is a head scratcher...
     
  10. The Beyonder

    The Beyonder Registered User

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    I'd rather Marner and Rielly get some needed rest and regroup for the next half rather than play a meaningless all star game that gets more boring with each passing year and is becoming a major farce at that too. The fact that Rielly and Giordano stay while Yandle goes is an absolute farce.
     
    mulefarm likes this.
  11. supermann_98

    supermann_98 Registered User

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    You’re right but the whole game is a farce. The highest scoring defenseman in the league not at the all-star game is a joke on so many levels but who still watches this game? I haven’t watched since they tried the glowing puck that one year way back when the American audience couldn’t see the puck on their tv
     

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