Morgan Rielly

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by meefer, Dec 21, 2018.

  1. Faltorvo

    Faltorvo Registered User

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    he will finish top 3 Norris voting for this season, book it

    oh,,and it will be well earned.
     
  2. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    I mean, it depends what they do on the ice. Karlsson has been on the ice for 44 Sharks goals (45 expected), Rielly has been on the ice for 55 Leafs goals (37 expected). Obviously Karlsson does more offensively, and is getting less lucky
     
  3. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    again, I think you need to read my whole post (maybe whole line of posts on the subject). I think Rielly is a terrific player, and it's not a binary option where a player is either excellent or bad, it's a scale (which I believe Rielly is near the top of, but not right at the top of despite it looking that way when you look at his hockey db page).

    There also isn't a scale between talent and luck where the two are opposed to eachother, a player can be both talented/good and lucky, and I have stated that Rielly has been both (in the context of this year). No matter how good a player is, he is subject to massive filters of luck, if that weren't true the best players in the league would shoot at or near 100% which has never come close to happening in any season, by any player, ever.

    in the context of this year, when you're comparing Rielly's underlying numbers to the guys that are his immediate competition for the Norris trophy (Giordano, Letang, Burns, Karlsson for the sake of argument), all of their production to this point is built on more sustainable underlying numbers (Giordano's are a little high too, but he's got the "defensive" acumen part that will muddy the voting water). I think that Rielly is unlikely to sustain his pace because his underlying numbers are likely to normalize, meaning that a smaller percentage of the shots taken by Rielly, and while Rielly is on the ice, will go in from this point forward than before now. Which means, unless the volume of those shots increases, it's likely that Rielly produces at a slower rate in the second half than he did in the first half where that probably isn't true for the guys he's competing with for the Norris

    I don't think that will happen, but I hope you're right. I don't think it matters much either, Rielly's a stud and that's what matters
     
  4. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    eh. Burns get sheltered borderline 3rd pair competition, and Karlsson gets 2nd pair competition. Any advantage they may have in "underlying numbers" is pretty much irrelevant, imo. They simply don't get used against other teams' top lines, and thus should never be norris candidates. The vlasic-braun pairing takes all the toughest abusive matchups for them.

    Letang and Giordano do get top pair usage, though.
     
  5. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    I don't think that the Norris voters will get that in depth, so I think Rielly gets overtaken in point production by a big enough gap by season's end that he falls out of the voting. What I was saying on Rielly is purely in the context of winning the Norris, which I don't think has any impact on how good he is or how he affects us winning. We should be thrilled with the pick, and what Burke said about him at the draft is finally believable
     
  6. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    but let's be real - the underlying numbers have very, very little to do with winning the Norris.

    goals, points, plus/minus, icetime, team success. those are the only real considerations.
     
  7. Marshy

    Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    When do we find out if Rielly is voted into the All-Star game?
     
  8. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    for sure, Norris voting is boxscore driven because most of the guys that vote on it are dinosaurs. But I don't think Rielly finishes 85pts which is what will matter, I'm thinking around 70 is where he'll land and I think that gets beat but one of the other guys that's perceived to be sort of one-dimensional offence from the back end
     
  9. TheDoldrums

    TheDoldrums Registered User

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    Now! And he did not make it.

    Skinner won.
     
  10. Schooner

    Schooner Registered User

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    Rielly has more points as a D-man than Skinner...
     
  11. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    he's obviously better, but a vote is a vote. Pretty sure Sabres fans banded together to vote Girgensons in as an allstar one year. On the bright side, the Habs don't have a single representative and the Leafs still have two
     
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  12. Mattavarner

    Mattavarner Registered User

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    Wouldnt have been pissed if Point beat him, but Jeff frekin Skinner?
     
  13. Marshy

    Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    Leaf nation has more fans in some away rinks than home fans and yet we couldn't get our guy into the All-Star? Weak.
     
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  14. Burnie97

    Burnie97 Registered User

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    I'm alright with it. Yes he has more points than Skinner but Skinner has 29 goals which is pretty good too.

    I'm sure it's a nice feather in your hat, but it's an all star game. Not that big of a deal.

    Rest up Rielly.

    We'll need you to be good to go for the rest of the season/playoffs.
     
  15. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    eh. scoring is up this year. and he's been producing very consistently this year (11pts in his last 10, for example). and that's even with the PP running dry. him dropping to 24pts in his last 39gms would be pretty surprising, imo.
     
  16. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    Well we'll see, he's assured himself of the #1D moniker at this point in either case. It would be fun to see what he could do with a partner good enough to let him join the rush more often
     
  17. Ryan Michaels

    Ryan Michaels Registered User

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    Think you've lost the plot here.
     
  18. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    I think he's right, pretty sure zeke knows they've both won. The way the Norris (and a lot of the NHL awards) are decided upon is outdated, boxscores used to be the only way of tracking performance without watching every game for every player in contention, the guys that decide on the awards don't use nearly enough of what's available to them now to make their decisions
     
  19. Ace

    Ace Registered User

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    Latvia voted Girgensons in.
     
  20. Marshy

    Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    When was the last time a team failed to send their top scoring forward and dman to the allstar game who were also #1 and # 5 in scoring for their position in the league?
     
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  21. Ryan Michaels

    Ryan Michaels Registered User

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    I don't disagree with the sentiment here but if you think Karlsson should never be considered for the Norris your research has gone horribly awry.
     
  22. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    The NHL sure is making the All-star game a 'must-watch' with all the world's best players being there.... Oh.. Wait...
     
  23. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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  24. Marshy

    Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    Giordano not voted in is also a total farce.

    I voted Landy and Letang also good to see they got that right at least.
     
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  25. Randy Randerson

    Randy Randerson Registered User

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    That's fair, the offensive outputs of guys who don't face top competition and get offensive usage should be discounted accordingly when the votes are taking place though too. I don't think that would stop Karlsson from consideration when he breaks 80pts in a given year either but it's less impressive than a guy who does the same in tougher usage
     
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