Mitch Marner Vs Brock Boeser Vs William Nylander

[The Winter Soldier]

Hahahahahahaha @ "blindly" citing shooting percentage. TWS can't contextualize stats, much to the surprise of no one.

As was pointed out directly above, Boeser's current sh.% is truly historic - it would literally place him 3rd all-time in NHL history (a list, by the way, which is extremely sparsely populated by active or even recently active players, the aforementioned Steven Stamkos and his 16.9% coming in at 61st all time, and the next active player being Marchand and his 15.8% at 107). Whereas Marner and Nylander are not only shooting below league average for forwards, but below even their own numbers from last season, suggesting they aren't simply just inherently subpar finishers. Please don't act like 21.9 and 6.3 aren't huge outliers. Nylander's, though, of course has mostly normalized, but I think it's reasonable to expect his to still rise a modest amount.​

You ever hear of Jason Blake?

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

why can't we just have 3 options?

Nylander [ ]
Marner [ ]
Boeser [ ]

 

[Garthinater]

Boeser's personal sh.% is also 21.9, while Marner's and Nylander's are 6.3 and 9.2 respectively. None of those numbers are sustainable - let's not pretend that's not a factor.

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

For some reason this concept is very difficult for a lot of posters.

It's like last season. A rookie broke out with 19 goals in his first 38 games shooting at well over 20%. Lots of people (you know who) told us this player is just that good and some even said his shooting % would go up as he got stronger/more experienced! Then, like most of us predicted, his shooting % fell to 17% (which is still very good btw) and so did his goal scoring because he isn't a high volume shooter.

This is the exact same thing except the rookie is in his D+3 vs D+1. Brock will not shoot over 21% for the season.

 

[The Podium]

Probably all equal tier players.

Nylander will be the best overall
Marner the best playmaker
Boeser the best goal scorer

 

[Tralfamadore]

Boeser


Nylander
Marner

 

[Love]

Who cares about Boeser's high shooting percentage. Even if it drops to like 15% in the second half of the season he'll still score 35+ goals.

You guys act like his current shooting percentage will drop to under 10% or something.. sorry but that isn't happening. His shot is too good and he picks his spots too well. He'll likely have a career shooting percentage around 14% and in his prime years he'll probably have seasons around 17%-18%.

 

[LilySmoov]

You ever hear of Jason Blake?

Another outlier. And also another example of failure to contextualize. Do you remember Blake? He notoriously had atrocious shot selection - the dude literally shot from anywhere. He was an extremely high volume shooter without an especially good shot. While Marner’s shot is indeed pretty weak, there’s no comparison stylistically.

 

[rent free]

boeser. surprisingly leafs need a scoring rw. he's got a nose for the net. how would marner + 3rd for boeser + guds be in a trade? imo boeser > marner but 3rd > guds

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Who cares about Boeser's high shooting percentage. Even if it drops to like 15% in the second half of the season he'll still score 35+ goals.

You guys act like his current shooting percentage will drop to under 10% or something.. sorry but that isn't happening. His shot is too good and he picks his spots too well. He'll likely have a career shooting percentage around 14% and in his prime years he'll probably have seasons around 17%-18%.

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

 

[Critical13]

Get your shots in now, lads, while Boeser is statistically still ahead in terms of pacing.

Look forward to bumping this up again once 120-150 games have been played by each.

 

[bukwas]

Marner for me. Just a treat to watch.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Get your shots in now, lads, while Boeser is statistically still ahead in terms of pacing.

Look forward to bumping this up again once 120-150 games have been played by each.

Boeser already has 2 more goals than Marner's career high of 19 set last season, and is only 1 off of Nylander's 22 he scored last year. He could literally not score another goal this season and be ahead or even with both. But yes, let's bump this at the 120 game mark.

 

[Atomos2]

Boeser fever is hitting HFboards. I'll take Nylander though. They're all pretty close for the moment though.

 

[4thline]

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

Must not be scared of heights building such a strawman up on that soap box

 

[Gurilla]

B O E S E R
O
E
S
E
R

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Must not be scared of heights building such a strawman up on that soap box

What does this have to do with my post. Are you saying Marner's shot that I have read compared to a muffin is the same as Boeser's? That one would expect similar shooting both? Surely you are not reaching to these lengths.

 

[4thline]

What does this have to do with my post. Are you saying Marner's shot that I have read compared to a muffin is the same as Boeser's? That one would expect similar shooting both? Surely you are not reaching to these lengths.

I'm saying nothing of the sort. Nor has anyone in this thread. Hence your strawman construction.

Saying that rate X is likely to fall and rate Y is likely to rise is not the same as saying "X and Y are going to end up the same".

 

[Diamonddog01]

I think all three are very good. I do think the whole sh% argument is meaningless, it was brought up previously and the sample size just isn't big enough to make this particularly relevant. Sometimes it's helpful to actually look at the real world numbers these stats refer to.

Marner's career sh% is 9.4, this season he's at 6.3. A 3% difference at this point in the season doesn't translate into a lot more goal production. Marner would have 1.5 more goals if his sh% was at his career average, and his 82 game pace would be 65. He doesn't take a lot of shots so this notion that Marner's current sh% is some 'huge outlier' is silly.

Nylander's career sh% is 10.7, this season he's at 9.2 A 1.5%, which would be about 1 more goal this year. That modified ppg projected over 82 games is 60.

Now Boeser is currently at an admittedly unsustainable 21.9%. Let's change that to 13.5% - just plugged in a random number, but I do think his shooting percentage will always be at the higher end of the spectrum. Maybe not Stamkos level but high. That would reduces his goals to 13, and his modified ppg projected over 82 games is 70.

So inflating Marner's and Nylander's shooting percentage to their career average, and reducing Boeser's to a more realistic number, still results in Boeser having the highest ppg of the three.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'm saying nothing of the sort. Nor has anyone in this thread. Hence your strawman construction.

Saying that rate X is likely to fall and rate Y is likely to rise is not the same as saying "X and Y are going to end up the same".

You speak in riddles. No idea how this relates to my post, but carry on if you think Marner should be shooting at Boeser's proficiency.

 

[Morbo]

Boeser


Nylander
Marner

Make the gap bigger. The leaf players are trash.

 

[Love]

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

And the thing is, when people say his goal scoring will fall off a cliff because of his shooting percentage it’s also lazy because it’s not taking into account the fact that even if Boeser’s shooting percentage goes down, his ice time is going up. He won’t be playing 16 mins a game anymore, he’s just too good. So with more ice time comes more shots, and with more shots comes more goals. Even if his shooting percentage decreases.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Marner for me as a Leafs fan if I had to pick. He thinks the game at such an elite level. Think Nylander might be the most valuable of the 3 in the end though as he looks like he could be a promising dynamic center in the future. Boeser from what I've seen is fantastic and was one of my favourite prospects from the 2015 Draft. Going to be a premier goal scorer in the league for a long time.

This is about as close as it gets, and really it's too early to make any concrete predictions on the 3. Any of them could EASILY end up being the best. It's all just what if's right now, until we see more. All 3 will be elite NHL'ers for a long time.

It's a shame to see posts like
Marner
Nylander


Boeser

and vice versa

 

[Tkachuky]

Boeser fever is hitting HFboards. I'll take Nylander though. They're all pretty close for the moment though.

Very ironic to read a post like this from a Leafs fan. Prior to this season, Nylander and Marner were considered Gods on these boards and there were threads where they would not be traded for any D-man in the league. While I agree the 'fever' is there, it isn't on the same level as to what was said about Marner and Nylander before this season.

What Boeser is doing right now is pretty stellar. Rooting for him.

 

[Tralfamadore]

Very ironic to read a post like this from a Leafs fan. Prior to this season, Nylander and Marner were considered Gods on these boards and there were threads where they would not be traded for any D-man in the league. While I agree the 'fever' is there, it isn't on the same level as to what was said about Marner and Nylander before this season.

What Boeser is doing right now is pretty stellar. Rooting for him.

Could you imagine if the shoe was on the other foot?

Right now BB is having a more impressive rookie season than any of the Toronto 3.

 

[4thline]

And the thing is, when people say his goal scoring will fall off a cliff because of his shooting percentage it’s also lazy because it’s not taking into account the fact that even if Boeser’s shooting percentage goes down, his ice time is going up. He won’t be playing 16 mins a game anymore, he’s just too good. So with more ice time comes more shots, and with more shots comes more goals. Even if his shooting percentage decreases.

This pretty much word for word what TWS and the Lainiecs were arguing just about this time (maybe a little earlier) about his shooting percentage and how it was lazy to assume that such a god would fall from shooting at ~23% and being on pace for ~55 or more goals. Just saying.