Mitch Marner Vs Brock Boeser Vs William Nylander

[The Winter Soldier]

So to be perfectly clear, do you require me to provide an exact number for where his sh.% will fall in order to demonstrate the current number is unsustainable?

And since you really truly without a hint of hyperbole can't read, I'll quote myself again:



See, what I'm pretty sure you're doing is, as soon as I toss out a number, you'll then use that number to extrapolate his goal totals over the course of the rest of the season and then triumphantly go "BUT HE'LL STILL OUTSCORE MARNER AND NYLANDER I WIN!!!!1111" which is lovely and all except it still doesn't address the question asked in this thread. Do you even know what the thread is asking? Or is that yet another example in an unfathomably long list of things you're ignorant about?

Pure Dodge.

Poster claims Boeser shooting percentage will regress, implying he will fall off the earth. But will not answer the question of how much. Boeser is on a 49.2 goal pace over 82 games. No one here has said he would score 50 goals. So you creating a false narrative is disingenuous.

Since most reasonable posters expect him to score 35-40 goals this year in 79 games, if he stays healthy the rest of the games, Then just what am I being ignorant to?

It must really bug you that he has more goals the Nylander and Marner combined this year and already has passed or reached Nylander's career highs 35 games into his first full season huh?

 

[4thline]

If one can't see the relevance of sh% normalization likely causing the comparison from a 50/30 player vs 10/45 vs 15/40 to 40/30 vs 20/45 vs 25/40 then perhaps we need to challenge our long held beliefs and consider the possibility that what was long thought trolling is actually just simplicity.

 

[supersonic jet]

If one can't see the relevance of sh% normalization likely causing the comparison from a 50/30 player vs 10/45 vs 15/40 to 40/30 vs 20/45 vs 25/40 then perhaps we need to challenge our long held beliefs and consider the possibility that what was long thought trolling is actually just simplicity.

Wpg fan and it's Boeser and its not close

 

[4thline]

Wpg fan and it's Boeser and its not close

I haven't voted because it's damn close. By the end of the year I'm expecting all three to be between 60 and 70 points, with the main differentiator being goal v assist ratios. Looking beyond what is quite likely a non indicative gap caused by a hot start vs two cold ones we're currently looking at three young 1st line wingers- a triggerman, a playmaker, and a more balanced one. The poll asks about moving forward, and currently I don't think any is approaching their ceiling, and even looking at ceilings it's a hard call. Do you take the 50+ goal perennial rocket contender, the 70 point slick transition centre, or the 80+ point Kane light playmaking winger. I don't know which I'd pick, and I have no idea who will reach and who won't, so I'm not voting.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I haven't voted because it's damn close. By the end of the year I'm expecting all three to be between 60 and 70 points, with the main differentiator being goal v assist ratios. Looking beyond what is quite likely a non indicative gap caused by a hot start vs two cold ones we're currently looking at three young 1st line wingers- a triggerman, a playmaker, and a more balanced one. The poll asks about moving forward, and currently I don't think any is approaching their ceiling, and even looking at ceilings it's a hard call. Do you take the 50+ goal perennial rocket contender, the 70 point slick transition centre, or the 80+ point Kane light playmaking winger. I don't know which I'd pick, and I have no idea who will reach and who won't, so I'm not voting.

We have a winner. These ainec post need to stop. No need to trash any of these players but the regular trolls just can't help themselves (The Winter Solder mostly)

 

[Blue and Green]

People who are focussing on Boeser's shooting % are picking one number to justify their desired outcome, as is anyone who focusses on Marner's low goals total this season. Marner is obviously going to score goals at a substantially greater rate over the long haul than he has this season, there isn't any doubt about that. Boeser won't continue to score on 21% of his SoG but he probably also won't play the rest of his career on a bottom-four team with the other 2/3rd's of its first line injured and an absurdly low level of offensive help from its defencemen.

Is there any room here for rational thought or is just a matter of cherry picking one or two stats based on the jersey that a player is wearing?

 

[LilySmoov]

Pure Dodge.

Poster claims Boeser shooting percentage will regress, implying he will fall off the earth. But will not answer the question of how much.

Okay, for real... what? Not only was that not implied, but I explicitly said the opposite. And not only did I say the opposite, but I've quoted it at you multiple times. Here it is yet again:

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

Please, seriously please tell me how you read "I don't anticipate it to drop significantly" and interpreted that as "fall off the earth." I'm dying to hear the nonsense you spew to justify this one.

It must really bug you that he has more goals the Nylander and Marner combined this year and already has passed or reached Nylander's career highs 35 games into his first full season huh?

Not really. Note that I've never once argued Marner or Nylander are superior to Boeser. I couldn't say with any confidence who's gonna end up the better player given that we have so little data to draw from. You seem incapable of, among innumerable other things, understanding the difference between deeming a conclusion to be false and criticizing the reasoning leading to that conclusion. Pointing out a flawed argument ≠ necessarily rejecting the conclusion.

 

[LilySmoov]

Like, are you even reading your own posts? "you're implying he'll fall off the earth... but won't say how much he'll regress."

Do you not see how you're contradicting yourself in the span of one sentence fragment? If I won't say how much he'll regress, then by extension I could never have said he'd fall off the earth because that would qualify as a statement on how much he'll regress. But by your own admission, I never said how much he'd regress, so how did you ever conclude I said he'd fall off the earth?

This is truly remarkable.

 

[IPS]

Pure Dodge.

Poster claims Boeser shooting percentage will regress, implying he will fall off the earth. But will not answer the question of how much. Boeser is on a 49.2 goal pace over 82 games. No one here has said he would score 50 goals. So you creating a false narrative is disingenuous.

Since most reasonable posters expect him to score 35-40 goals this year in 79 games, if he stays healthy the rest of the games, Then just what am I being ignorant to?

It must really bug you that he has more goals the Nylander and Marner combined this year and already has passed or reached Nylander's career highs 35 games into his first full season huh?

Apparently the Leafs being the most successful young team in the league bugs you enough to come into all Leafs-related threads and post about them non-stop.

 

[eviohh26]

Apparently the Leafs being the most successful young team in the league bugs you enough to come into all Leafs-related threads and post about them non-stop.

Boeser >

 

[Lovedemfanboys]

We have a winner. These ainec post need to stop. No need to trash any of these players but the regular trolls just can't help themselves (The Winter Solder mostly)

They are quite close indeed.

Not sure why you are picking TWS when literally the sixth post of this thread is:

1) Marner
2) Nylander
.
.
.
3) Boeser

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Like, are you even reading your own posts? "you're implying he'll fall off the earth... but won't say how much he'll regress."

Do you not see how you're contradicting yourself in the span of one sentence fragment? If I won't say how much he'll regress, then by extension I could never have said he'd fall off the earth because that would qualify as a statement on how much he'll regress. But by your own admission, I never said how much he'd regress, so how did you ever conclude I said he'd fall off the earth?

This is truly remarkable.

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

But you should understand or make it clearer you understand the difference of a 6%-10% shooter normalizing, to a 16%-21% shooter normalizing their shooting percentages.

 

[LilySmoov]

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

But you should understand or make it clearer you understand the difference of a 6%-10% shooter normalizing, to a 16%-21% shooter normalizing their shooting percentages.

But the "stock reply" applies here because we're dealing with an extreme case. You're committing some kind of weird poisoning the well-esque fallacy here. Just because the argument is (purportedly often) misused in other cases, doesn't mean it's being misused now.

It feels pointless to bother typing out something this obvious, but a lot of this forum suggests it's necessary: It's wise to exercise some tentativeness when extrapolating such an outlying data point, especially one extreme as this, from such a tiny sample size. I don't think I've ever seen a group of people misunderstand this more than hockey fans. (I'm sure it's true of all sports fans, but hockey fans are the only ones I regularly engage with.)

And because it bears repeating since you keep harping on about how Boeser is a superior shooter to Marner, which no one, certainly not I, has disputed at any point: saying their shooting percentages will normalize is not the same as saying they'll equalize. If Marner ever flirts with 30 in his life, I'll be amazed.

But you should understand or make it clearer you understand the difference of a 6%-10% shooter normalizing, to a 16%-21% shooter normalizing their shooting percentages.

Please don't make me quote myself saying I don't anticipate Boeser's sh.% to drop significantly again. Oh f*** it, here:

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

 

[lawrence]

Feels good to see a canuck player beat the living crap out of 2 leafs player In a poll. More votes then both those players combined. A win for all hockey fans actually .

 

[KingTux]

Pure Dodge.

Poster claims Boeser shooting percentage will regress, implying he will fall off the earth. But will not answer the question of how much. Boeser is on a 49.2 goal pace over 82 games. No one here has said he would score 50 goals. So you creating a false narrative is disingenuous.

Since most reasonable posters expect him to score 35-40 goals this year in 79 games, if he stays healthy the rest of the games, Then just what am I being ignorant to?

It must really bug you that he has more goals the Nylander and Marner combined this year and already has passed or reached Nylander's career highs 35 games into his first full season huh?

dafuq is that

 

[NarcoPolo]

Feels good to see a canuck player beat the living crap out of 2 leafs player In a poll. More votes then both those players combined. A win for all hockey fans actually .

You need to get out more lol.

 

[NarcoPolo]

It's a well known fact shooting % fluctuate for all players during a season. As I said, the shooting % argument is one of the dumbest arguments I see on hockey boards today. To compare Marner as a shooter to Boeser and equate one to being lucky and the other unlucky defies credulity. Marner will never shoot the puck as proficient as Boeser, nor is Boeser going to shoot the puck as Marner will. Citing shooting %'s and not recognizing the difference in the quality of shooters is lazy hockey analysis that has become a stock reply on these boards these days. It all evens out in the wash at the end of the year, it is nothing new. Players since Gordie Howe played in his prime all go through plateaus. You don't need to look at a shooting % to understand this.

But you should understand or make it clearer you understand the difference of a 6%-10% shooter normalizing, to a 16%-21% shooter normalizing their shooting percentages.

Year after year on ice shooting percentages show which players are "outperforming" and which are "unlucky". The best players and best shooters in the game can maintain an oiSH% of around 8-10%. I have no idea what Boesers is mind you. Ignoring context like this and would be dumb imo, not the other way around.

 

[The Mentalist]

Its been a year would like to see the votes now. My vote is Marner.

 

[slimbob8]

I was staring at these poll results in complete confusion until I saw the date of when it was created. Of course now the obvious choice should be Marner no matter what team you cheer for.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Feels good to see a canuck player beat the living crap out of 2 leafs player In a poll. More votes then both those players combined. A win for all hockey fans actually .

Except that nobody in their right minds would vote that way today. LOL. Marner crushes all of them in reality.

Let's see if Boeser can just beat Nylander by the end of this year.

 

[Nizdizzle]

I think if anything should be learned from this it should be that making definitive statements about young players is an exercise in futility, and you probably shouldn't be a **** about it either (although that is good advice for everything in life).

Also, shooting percentage does matter.

 

[hockeeyyy]

Feels good to see a canuck player beat the living crap out of 2 leafs player In a poll. More votes then both those players combined. A win for all hockey fans actually .

And then what happened?

 

[Deadly Dogma]

Can we bump the Liljigren ‘Steal of the Draft’ threads too?

If you want, but you have to admit there are some real hot takes in here lol

 

[The Mentalist]

Can we bump the Liljigren ‘Steal of the Draft’ threads too?

You're welcome to but i'm going to bump on of your hot takes from the very first page.

Boeser
Nylander
Marner

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You're welcome to but i'm going to bump on of your hot takes from the very first page.

In 2017 that was a pretty reasonable view. Marner was a 69 point player who was struggling. Things change. I don’t know why Leaf fans feel the need to use derogatory terms like ‘hot takes.’ Why be so childish?
Some of you act like young teenagers.