Mitch Marner Vs Brock Boeser Vs William Nylander

[maroon 6]

Not really. One 28 goal season doesn't disprove my expectations, especially when it comes after a hot start followed by 17 goals in his final 61 games.

You say 17 goals in 61 games as if its a bad thing, when Mitch Marner is at 21 career goals.

 

[Knies iT]

He won't get 28 points in 59 games? Okay sure I believe you

Check back at the end of the year. The number of rookies who rack up 60+ points is minuscule. Boeser won't be one of them, his game isn't dynamic enough.

 

[maroon 6]

Diving into Boeser's stats you'll see that he is just riding a hot shooting percentage and piling up PP points. He only has 12 ES points, 8 goals and 4 assists at ES. Out of those 4 assists 3 are secondary and his only primary assist is a tip. If he were shooting at a reasonable 10% he'd literally have an ES stat line of 4 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary. That's absolutely pathetic for someone who is supposedly in the Calder race. Barzal, Keller, and Hischier are all leagues better than Boeser and have the numbers to back it up. All of this hype over Boeser is ridiculous. He has an elite shot, but the aforementioned rookies will all skate circles around him and they even know how to pass and drive the play. Imagine that.

Those 12 ES points are 4 less than Marner and Nylanders total points this season

Those 4 ES goals (at a 10% hypothetical shooting rate) are double that of Marners total goals this season and ties Nylanders total goals

Even in your hypothetical world Boeser doesn't seem so bad

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You say 17 goals in 61 games as if its a bad thing, when Mitch Marner is at 21 career goals.

It's not a bad thing, but it's pretty close to in line with my projections for him.

 

[maroon 6]

It's not a bad thing, but it's pretty close to in line with my projections for him.

IF Boeser reaches 28 goals that would be an amazing rookie year and not many Canucks fans even projected that at the start of the season. Hot start or whatever does not matter. Why would you look at the smaller sample size and not the whole season in itself?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

IF Boeser reaches 28 goals that would be an amazing rookie year and not many Canucks fans even projected that at the start of the season. Hot start or whatever does not matter. Why would you look at the smaller sample size and not the whole season in itself?

Because this current stretch is a fairly unsustainable hot streak and not really an indication of his future scoring pace.

That's all I'm getting at. If I had him pegged as a 40-55 point guy whose goal to assist ratio is roughly 1:1 then playing the final 80% of the season at a 22-23 goal pace doesn't prove my projection hilariously wrong. At least not yet.

As I've said before (and as most posters know), I'm a big USA Hockey fan. Nothing would make me happier than to see him turn into a 40g 80p winger. That would be some delicious crow.

I have many strong opinions about players, and I enjoy debating them on these message boards. But nobody should mistake my defense of my position as hatred towards the player - especially for such a great kid like Brock. I just call it as I see it. I'm wrong a lot, but I like to think that sometimes I have some pretty good insights that turn out to be more true than false.

 

[Gurilla]

Gotta go with Boeser, kid looks good. Nylander has been disappointing and Marner is on pace for 6 goals this season. Toronto's "big 3" was big for one season just like Edmonton was good for one year.

 

[tony d]

Went with Option 3.

 

[naruto]

Gotta go with Boeser, kid looks good. Nylander has been disappointing and Marner is on pace for 6 goals this season. Toronto's "big 3" was big for one season just like Edmonton was good for one year.

Toronto is making the playoffs again this year. According to you, without much contribution from Marner and Nylander. Imagine Toronto when Nylander and Marner start "doing something".

 

[winnipegger]

Tough poll but I take Marner. I still think he ends up being the best player in a few years. His toolbox is insane.

 

[SillyRabbit]

People need to give Nylander and Marner some slack. It's just an extended version of a sophomore slump. I'm a Canucks fan and I'm just thrilled to have a guy like Boeser who is on the same level as the Toronto guys.

 

[Morgs]

It's amazing how a hot start and a great shot can really influence people to make poor decisions.

I guarantee if we offered Marner/Nylander straight up for Boeser to any rational GM in the league, they wouldn't be able to say yes fast enough.

 

[Blue and Green]

It's amazing how a hot start and a great shot can really influence people to make poor decisions.

I guarantee if we offered Marner/Nylander straight up for Boeser to any rational GM in the league, they wouldn't be able to say yes fast enough.

Here we are a month later.

Boeser: 38 points in 35 games
Marner: 29 points in 38 games
Nylander: 27 points in 38 games

That's despite Boeser playing on a much lower scoring and weaker team whose first line C and LW are out for extended periods with significant injuries. He is now the obvious main target for opposing teams' defensive tactics-- yet his scoring pace has increased, not decreased as the season has progressed.

And I think Boeser is the best defensively of the three, too.

 

[Ace of Hades]

Here we are a month later.

Boeser: 38 points in 35 games
Marner: 29 points in 38 games
Nylander: 27 points in 38 games

That's despite Boeser playing on a much lower scoring and weaker team whose first line C and LW are out for extended periods with significant injuries. He is now the obvious main target for opposing teams' defensive tactics-- yet his scoring pace has increased, not decreased as the season has progressed.

And I think Boeser is the best defensively of the three, too.

The Nucks D also are not helping Boeser.

 

[LilySmoov]

Boeser's personal sh.% is also 21.9, while Marner's and Nylander's are 6.3 and 9.2 respectively. None of those numbers are sustainable - let's not pretend that's not a factor.

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

 

[Sky04]

It's amazing how a hot start and a great shot can really influence people to make poor decisions.

I guarantee if we offered Marner/Nylander straight up for Boeser to any rational GM in the league, they wouldn't be able to say yes fast enough.

Since TO fans love "pace" so much, it's funny how you don't value Boeser's. I doubt the Canucks entertain either of those guys for Boeser straight up, Marner is sheltered and Nylander leeches off Matthews, and it's funny that he's outscoring both of them by a good margin while doing it also.

 

[clunk]

Boeser's personal sh.% is also 21.9, while Marner's and Nylander's are 6.3 and 9.2 respectively. None of those numbers are sustainable - let's not pretend that's not a factor.

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

It's okay. If he stops scoring goals at that pace, he'll just rack up assists.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Boeser's personal sh.% is also 21.9, while Marner's and Nylander's are 6.3 and 9.2 respectively. None of those numbers are sustainable - let's not pretend that's not a factor.

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

If Nylander or Marner had the shot and finish of Boeser, they may have 25 goals each now. But neither do, thus some players sport higher shooting %'s. Something that is often never cited when the shooting % argument is brought up. Thinking or arguing all players have the same quality of shooting ability to blindly cite shooting % is one of the dumbest things I continually read on these forums.

 

[BigTruzz]

If Nylander or Marner had the shot and finish of Boeser, they may have 25 goals each now. But neither do, thus some players sport higher shooting %'s. Something that is often never cited when the shooting % argument is brought up. Thinking or arguing all players have the same quality of shooting ability to blindly cite shooting % is one of the dumbest things I continually read on these forums.

Agreed 100%

 

[firstemperor]

If Nylander or Marner had the shot and finish of Boeser, they may have 25 goals each now. But neither do, thus some players sport higher shooting %'s. Something that is often never cited when the shooting % argument is brought up. Thinking or arguing all players have the same quality of shooting ability to blindly cite shooting % is one of the dumbest things I continually read on these forums.

You touch on a point then speak in hyperboles to make it. If Marner and Nylander start hovering closer to even league average, they'd score a lot more goals just by sheer volume. Marner, while very much, a primary and secondary playmaker is shooting ~5%. And agreed, Boeser is a incredible finisher and I've said as such, but right now, he's pacing above any single of Stamkos's years in terms of SH%, including his 60 goal marker (at 21.1% right now). And I used that comparison because Stamkos is the general outlier when it comes to SH%, having a career SH% of 16.9% and the pedigree to back it up.

Basically, the numbers that Boeser are posting, so far are historical numbers. And again, while I don't deny he will always be above the general league average in terms of SH%, there is no precedent for it. It's almost like Stephen Curry with his 3 point numbers, not only in regards to efficiency but volume. It's precedent setting stuff, except in this case there's no framework to work on.

 

[LilySmoov]

Hahahahahahaha @ "blindly" citing shooting percentage. TWS can't contextualize stats, much to the surprise of no one.

As was pointed out directly above, Boeser's current sh.% is truly historic - it would literally place him 3rd all-time in NHL history (a list, by the way, which is extremely sparsely populated by active or even recently active players, the aforementioned Steven Stamkos and his 16.9% coming in at 61st all time, and the next active player being Marchand and his 15.8% at 107). Whereas Marner and Nylander are not only shooting below league average for forwards, but below even their own numbers from last season, suggesting they aren't simply just inherently subpar finishers. Please don't act like 21.9 and 6.3 aren't huge outliers. Nylander's, though, of course has mostly normalized, but I think it's reasonable to expect his to still rise a modest amount.​

 

[Blue and Green]

Shooting % is only one of many factors that can be indicative of luck or fortunate circumstances. Marner and Nylander are fortunate to play on a team that has a lot more offensive skill than the Canucks. They also both have a season more of experience in the NHL.

 

[Ace of Hades]

Matthews himself has a high shooting %

 

[elitepete]

Boeser is better than the other 2 already and has more room for improvement.

 

[Apotheosis]

Matthews himself has a high shooting %

We have also said his SH% will drop. It likely won't affect potential point totals though. His chance generation is up there with the best, and most of his shots are from very high danger areas anyways.