Mitch Marner Vs Brock Boeser Vs William Nylander

[The Winter Soldier]

So your argument against Boeser having a high S% is that S% rise and fall over the season and will normalize at the end? So basically you are acknowledging that he has a high S% but by seasons end it will likely fall in the range of the premier snipers in the league. Riveting.

My argument if you can call it an argument at all since it is all facts that have already happened when a bevy of Leafs posters brought up the old standby shooting % when one or 2 of their players is losing a stats or poll race is simply let the facts speak for themselves.

Boeser after 35 games has already bettered Marner's season high of 19 goals by 2. And is just 1 less then Nylander's career 22 high.

So Boeser can virtually shoot 0% the rest of the season and he will be as good or better than either Marner or Nylander as goal scorers for a season. So the shooting % narrative is voided. But we all know Boeser is unlikely to shoot 0% the rest of the season. So either way Boeser atleast when it comes to goals is > than Nylander and Marner.

 

[biturbo19]

I'm not sure if it's just the jaded Canucks fan in me or what, but i'm kinda leaning toward Marner for this, even over Boeser and all that he's done this year. Somehow i'm just having a hard time believing it's all real i guess. Marner has hit a bit of a sophomore slump, but in the long run, just has so much talent and the ability to absolute drive a scoring line even as a winger. Boeser has the sort of skillset that is so rare if he continues on this trajectory though...such a natural goal scorer and has the size+attitude to play in the hard areas too.

Really...gimme either of Boeser or Marner and i wouldn't complain one bit.

 

[LilySmoov]

Weren't you just citing unsustainable shooting percentages? This is not the topic either so don't whine about it when someone addresses this and it's inaccuracies.

Well for starters, no one has actually addressed its inaccuracies, least of all you and your repeated failures to contextualize the numbers.

Secondly, this particular aspect of the game was used to substantiate the claim that Boeser is a better player, not merely better goal scorer. The point is the conclusion doesn't logically follow from that premise despite the premise being accurate. Because, again, pretty much nobody is arguing Boeser isn't a better goal scorer.

You have a really tenuous grasp on, well, basically everything.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Boeser already has 2 more goals than Marner's career high of 19 set last season, and is only 1 off of Nylander's 22 he scored last year. He could literally not score another goal this season and be ahead or even with both. But yes, let's bump this at the 120 game mark.

it's pretty silly to compare a goal scorer to a playmaker using the criteria of goal scoring.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Well for starters, no one has actually addressed its inaccuracies, least of all you and your repeated failures to contextualize the numbers.

Secondly, this particular aspect of the game was used to substantiate the claim that Boeser is a better player, not merely better goal scorer. The point is the conclusion doesn't logically follow from that premise despite the premise being accurate. Because, again, pretty much nobody is arguing Boeser isn't a better goal scorer.

You have a really tenuous grasp on, well, basically everything.

Here was your reply to that cited me in your post earlier today. Just what am I unable to contextualize? Here is your one chance to prove yourself to me.

Hahahahahahaha @ "blindly" citing shooting percentage. TWS can't contextualize stats, much to the surprise of no one.

As was pointed out directly above, Boeser's current sh.% is truly historic - it would literally place him 3rd all-time in NHL history (a list, by the way, which is extremely sparsely populated by active or even recently active players, the aforementioned Steven Stamkos and his 16.9% coming in at 61st all time, and the next active player being Marchand and his 15.8% at 107). Whereas Marner and Nylander are not only shooting below league average for forwards, but below even their own numbers from last season, suggesting they aren't simply just inherently subpar finishers. Please don't act like 21.9 and 6.3 aren't huge outliers. Nylander's, though, of course has mostly normalized, but I think it's reasonable to expect his to still rise a modest amount.​

 

[The Podium]

My argument if you can call it an argument at all since it is all facts that have already happened when a bevy of Leafs posters brought up the old standby shooting % when one or 2 of their players is losing a stats or poll race is simply let the facts speak for themselves.

Boeser after 35 games has already bettered Marner's season high of 19 goals by 2. And is just 1 less then Nylander's career 22 high.

So Boeser can virtually shoot 0% the rest of the season and he will be as good or better than either Marner or Nylander as goal scorers for a season. So the shooting % narrative is voided. But we all know Boeser is unlikely to shoot 0% the rest of the season. So either way Boeser atleast when it comes to goals is > than Nylander and Marner.

So you agree his Shooting % is high. What you then argue is a that a goal scorer is better at scoring goals than a playmaker and a balanced offensive player. Riveting.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

So you agree his Shooting % is high. What you then argue is a that a goal scorer is better at scoring goals than a playmaker and a balanced offensive player. Riveting.

No I am simply pointing out the fact he is a much better goal scorer than Marner or Nylander are. But if you care to dispute the fact that Boeser already has 2 more goals than Marner's 19 goal career high, or is practically already tied Nylander with his career high of 22 goals, and we are not even officially at the half way mark of the season. Than go ahead, I am listening.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Marner, by FAR.

 

[Smeagoal]

Marner, by FAR.

Nah. I'm surprised you didn't add in your typical AINEC.

 

[Holymakinaw]

AINEC.

 

[LilySmoov]

Here was your reply to that cited me in your post earlier today. Just what am I unable to contextualize? Here is your one chance to prove yourself to me.

How much more do you need this spelled out for you?

Boeser's shooting percentage isn't just above average, it's quite significantly higher than any active player has ever been able to sustain over an extended period of time. It's as unsustainable as it gets.

Moreover, you argued that because Boeser is a better goal scorer (which isn't being disputed), he's therefore a better player, which is a non-sequitor because the thread is about who's the better player, not better goal scorer, and there's more that goes into evaluating a player than just gawking at their goal total.

Are you actively trying to not understand these really simple concepts or something?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

How much more do you need this spelled out for you?

Boeser's shooting percentage isn't just above average, it's quite significantly higher than any active player has ever been able to sustain over an extended period of time. It's as unsustainable as it gets.

Moreover, you argued that because Boeser is a better goal scorer (which isn't being disputed), he's therefore a better player, which is a non-sequitor because the thread is about who's the better player, not better goal scorer, and there's more that goes into evaluating a player than just gawking at their goal total.

Are you actively trying to not understand these really simple concepts or something?

Specify, how unsustainable? Since you keep harping this narrative. Are you expecting Boeser to fall off the cliff unsustainable? Or unsustainable to score 35-40 goals in 79 games which would be comparable to Matthews season last year when he scored his 40th into an empty net. I think I already clearly said it is extremely rare for a rookie to score 50. So you tell me, what concepts I do not understand? To me it looks like you do not understand simple concepts of hockey.

 

[CanadienShark]

Nylander for me by a slim margin.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Boeser
Nylander




Marner
I don't really see Marner as in the same tier as the above two players.

 

[LilySmoov]

Specify, how unsustainable? Since you keep harping this narrative. Are you expecting Boeser to fall off the cliff unsustainable? Or unsustainable to score 35-40 goals in 79 games which would be comparable to Matthews season last year when he scored his 40th into an empty net. I think I already clearly said it is extremely rare for a rookie to score 50. So you tell me, what concepts I do not understand? To me it looks like you do not understand simple concepts of hockey.

What kind of asinine question is this? Do you want me to predict the exact sh,% he finishes the season with? Do I need to provide an exact number in order to demonstrate that 21.9% is unsustainable? It's almost like you're setting yourself up for a convenient goalpost shift in a future post.

And for the record, since you do in fact need things spelled out for you even after having already been spelled out, I'm gonna quote myself from a few pages ago:

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

And do bear in mind that the topic is not who's a better goal scorer, nor is it even who do you think will have a better season. A single-season of unsustainable numbers is certainly feasible and happens with some regularity to various teams and players in various forms, but the odds of such things persisting long-term is infinitesimally slim, especially in a scenario like this where the figure being discussed is an enormous outlier.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

What kind of asinine question is this? Do you want me to predict the exact sh,% he finishes the season with? Do I need to provide an exact number in order to demonstrate that 21.9% is unsustainable? It's almost like you're setting yourself up for a convenient goalpost shift in a future post.

And for the record, since you do in fact need things spelled out for you even after having already been spelled out, I'm gonna quote myself from a few pages ago:



And do bear in mind that the topic is not who's a better goal scorer, nor is it even who do you think will have a better season. A single-season of unsustainable numbers is certainly feasible and happens with some regularity to various teams and players in various forms, but the odds of such things persisting long-term is infinitesimally slim, especially in a scenario like this where the figure being discussed is an enormous outlier.

A dodge of a post if I ever read one. You said his shooting % was not sustainable, so what exactly are you saying in terms of outliers.

It's really not that hard. Don't sit on the fence, show some guts. Make a call. Are you saying Boeser is falling off the cliff unsustainable? Or is he for teetering on a cliff unsustainable of barely scoring 9 more goals in his remaining half season, Or you think he is going to be 35-40 goal unsustainable? Which would make him a comparable to Matthews best. Go ahead, for one citing shooting % and sounding like an expert, surely you have a guess?

 

[Pip]

Marner and Nylander have hit plenty of posts and crossbars too though. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Boeser's production to drop. He's also a negative possession player unlike the Leafs guys

Using possession metrics in a rookie’s first ~35 games seems questionable.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Using possession metrics in a rookie’s first ~35 games seems questionable.

it's a bigger sample than straight up production but you have no problem with that

 

[Pip]

it's a bigger sample than straight up production but you have no problem with that

I’m just not sure it actually means a lot in terms of his evaluation. It’s a bigger sample but I really doubt it’s significance. I’m also not sure if I’ve even posted in this thread let alone made a comment about Boeser’s production so maybe you’re thinking of another poster? His production is most likely inflated, but he’s on pace to crush Nylander and Marner’s rookie years so even a return to earth to some degree could easily result in a comparable rookie season.

 

[LilySmoov]

A dodge of a post if I ever read one. You said his shooting % was not sustainable, so what exactly are you saying in terms of outliers.

It's really not that hard. Don't sit on the fence, show some guts. Make a call. Are you saying Boeser is falling off the cliff unsustainable? Or is he for teetering on a cliff unsustainable of barely scoring 9 more goals in his remaining half season, Or you think he is going to be 35-40 goal unsustainable? Which would make him a comparable to Matthews best. Go ahead, for one citing shooting % and sounding like an expert, surely you have a guess?

So to be perfectly clear, do you require me to provide an exact number for where his sh.% will fall in order to demonstrate the current number is unsustainable?

And since you really truly without a hint of hyperbole can't read, I'll quote myself again:

Not that I anticipate his sh.% to drop significantly when his shot is just that good, but he's not keeping up that 22%.

See, what I'm pretty sure you're doing is, as soon as I toss out a number, you'll then use that number to extrapolate his goal totals over the course of the rest of the season and then triumphantly go "BUT HE'LL STILL OUTSCORE MARNER AND NYLANDER I WIN!!!!1111" which is lovely and all except it still doesn't address the question asked in this thread. Do you even know what the thread is asking? Or is that yet another example in an unfathomably long list of things you're ignorant about?

 

[Garthinater]

So to be perfectly clear, do you require me to provide an exact number for where his sh.% will fall in order to demonstrate the current number is unsustainable?

And since you really truly without a hint of hyperbole can't read, I'll quote myself again:



See, what I'm pretty sure you're doing is, as soon as I toss out a number, you'll then use that number to extrapolate his goal totals over the course of the rest of the season and then triumphantly go "BUT HE'LL STILL OUTSCORE MARNER AND NYLANDER I WIN!!!!1111" which is lovely and all except it still doesn't address the question asked in this thread. Do you even know what the thread is asking? Or is that yet another example in an unfathomably long list of things you're ignorant about?

He's just being silly at this point.

 

[Regal]

it's a bigger sample than straight up production but you have no problem with that

He also plays for a poor team. His relative numbers are basically the same as Nylander's and while Marner's are better, he tends to get softer minutes. The Sedin's also tend to skew corsi numbers for the rest of the team, as the they manage a lot of weak attempts with their possession game.

 

[Addison Rae]

Marner and Nylander have hit plenty of posts and crossbars too though. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Boeser's production to drop. He's also a negative possession player unlike the Leafs guys

Why bring up possession stats when you clearly don't understand them? Toronto is a significantly better possession team than Vancouver which is why that's the case, when evaluating players possession numbers from different teams it's best to look at CorsiRel which measures their possession numbers relative to their team. A large amount of players on the Kings from 2012/2017 had better raw possession numbers than Sidney Crosby doesn't mean they were better possession players at all.

As Regal mentioned you also have to factor in deployment, advanced stats are absolutely useless without context.

All 3 of these players are in the same tier, I think the poll clearly reflects my opinion, Boeser is the best of the 3 but they're definitely comparable.

 

[Addison Rae]

He also plays for a poor team. His relative numbers are basically the same as Nylander's and while Marner's are better, he tends to get softer minutes. The Sedin's also tend to skew corsi numbers for the rest of the team, as the they manage a lot of weak attempts with their possession game.

The Sedins possession stats are more so skewed based on their deployment, at least in this stage of their career. They're given some of the softest minutes in the entire NHL and will obviously produce good possession results in that deployment.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Why bring up possession stats when you clearly don't understand them? Toronto is a significantly better possession team than Vancouver which is why that's the case, when evaluating players possession numbers from different teams it's best to look at CorsiRel which measures their possession numbers relative to their team. A large amount of players on the Kings from 2012/2017 had better raw possession numbers than Sidney Crosby doesn't mean they were better possession players at all.

As Regal mentioned you also have to factor in deployment, advanced stats are absolutely useless without context.

All 3 of these players are in the same tier, I think the poll clearly reflects my opinion, Boeser is the best of the 3 but they're definitely comparable.

Marner: 5.17 cf rel
Nylander: 0.19 cf rel
Boeser: -0.04 cf rel
Leafs aren't even that good of a possession team, we're around the middle of the pack. Marner's stats are so high they're getting beyond any advantage he has in competition