Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[flashsabre]

I've been telling people for over a year that Marner is better and more valuable player to the Leafs than Matthews but everyone would get angry. Nice to see people finally waking up. Problem now is Marner shouldn't and won't take a penny less than Matthews and now the real problems set in for the Leafs.

Let's see if Dubas goes back on his idiotic " As long as I'm GM of the Maple Leafs Nylander will not be traded" speech because Nylander will have to go to make things work.

Fans need to send Mark Hunter a big Thank You card for fighting for Marner at the draft when Babcock was set on Hanifin.

Getting the Toronto kid turning into a superstar for the hometown Leafs locked up is the objective over anything else this offseason.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Would you offer that for Rantanen and Point? Their numbers are arguably better than Marners.

I don't think either of them are nearly as good as Marner. Marner is pretty clearly the best forward and play driver on his line IMO.

MacK and Kucherov play a huge part of the success of Rantanen and Point, where as I see Marner helping Tavares more than Tavares helps Marner.

 

[Boondock]

There needs to be some sort of consensus formed in whether goals matter more than points.

Seems when the leaf player has more goals than comparables, it’s all about the goals. When the leaf player has way less goals, but similar points, now goals magically don’t matter any longer.

All 3 of those players have far more goals than Marner, and he has a bit more points. He should NOT make more than them.

These 4 players will be making comparisons to themselves. Rantanen gets far more goals/points than Marner last year, and more goals, slightly less points this year. Why would he tolerate making less than Marner?

I don't think you've played the "poor persecuted Leaf fan, why us oh Lord, why us?" card enough yet. Maybe if you stomp your feet and threaten to hold your breath you might get what you want and MM will sign for less than expected.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I don't think either of them are nearly as good as Marner. Marner is pretty clearly the best forward and play driver on his line IMO.

MacK and Kucherov play a huge part of the success of Rantanen and Point, where as I see Marner helping Tavares more than Tavares helps Marner.

Over the past two seasons Point scored 73 goals. Rantanen, 60. Marner? 48

Point almost doubled him in goals.

And I’d say Marner and Tavares compliment each other equally. before Marner had Tavares, he scored 60-70 points. Rantanen scored 85 last year while Marner scored 69.

I mean... it’s insane to say Marner is a league above those players.

The only reason Marner has more hype is because he plays in Toronto and players get much more press here.

If it was Rantanen or Point who played in Toronto instead of Marner, the media would be going insane about those players.

Also, if the option is 12x5 for Marner, or 12 mil in cap space plus 4 first round picks from Vancouver, I’d go with the latter.

What a mess that would be for Vancouver. The overpayment of Marner would mess up future negotiations in a similar way that Matthews overpayment is messing up the leafs. In a couple years they would be in just as much of cap hell as the leafs are, with absolutely no depth due to 4 years of no first round picks.

So, go for it, I say.
.[/I]

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I don't think you've played the "poor persecuted Leaf fan, why us oh Lord, why us?" card enough yet. Maybe if you stomp your feet and threaten to hold your breath you might get what you want and MM will sign for less than expected.

Can’t wait till Marner is signed. Not a single person outside of Toronto will say he’s better than players like Point and Rantanen after he's signed.

Leafs are in cap hell, so other fanbases have jumped all over it.

Marner doesn’t deserve a PENNY more than Point or a Rantanen.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Over the past two seasons Point scored 73 goals. Rantanen, 60. Marner? 48

Point almost doubled him in goals.

Surely you must understand that looking at goals only paints a terribly biased picture. This is an terrible way to evaluate players and compare a goal scorer shooting at 21.5% to an elite playmaking winger.

And I’d say Marner and Tavares compliment each other equally. before Marner had Tavares, he scored 60-70 points. Rantanen scored 85 last year while Marner scored 69.

Neither Rantanen nor Point have ever been the best player on their line or team. Both have been significantly outproduced by linemates. Both have relied heavily on PP production.

Marner hasn't.

I mean... it’s insane to say Marner is a league above those players.

Literally isn't.

Let me spell it out for you. Marner is the best player on his team. He drives the bus.

Rantanen and Point, while great, are not the best players on their respective teams. Neither are the primary play drivers on their lines.

Line drivers are more valuable than passengers. I trust that Marner could be placed on any team in the league an be an elite talent.

Point? With his 21.5% sh%, his 35PPP and his playing with a 128P Kucherov? I trust he'd be a great player on any team in the league, but I don't trust he'd repeat his elite production from this year.

The only reason Marner has more hype is because he plays in Toronto and players get much more press here.

Literally no. I don't like Toronto. I don't like the leafs. I want them to do poorly. Despite all of this, I admit Marner is an unbelievable young player and they will likely get him locked up long term.

What a mess that would be for Vancouver. The overpayment of Marner would mess up future negotiations in a similar way that Matthews overpayment is messing up the leafs. In a couple years they would be in just as much of cap hell as the leafs are, with absolutely no depth due to 4 years of no first round picks.

You don't follow the Canucks, and you have no clue what you're talking about. Toronto is blessed with an absurd amount of crazy skilled young players.

Vancouver isn't. Aside from Boeser who will get ~7-8M and Pettersson who might get ~10-12M, they have nobody good. Signing Marner doesn't condemn them to cap hell because they have nobody good they need to make room for.

 

[Connor McConnor]

And leafs fans don't know this? We watch him every game, we know how valuable he is

Do I really need to pull up the numerous amount of threads where the Leafs tell me AM is the best player on the team and it's not even that close? He's been a ghost his whole career in the playoffs while playing no defense whereas Marner elevates his game and does everything he needs to win. I'd much rather have MM personally.

 

[Torontoborn]

Do I really need to pull up the numerous amount of threads where the Leafs tell me AM is the best player on the team and it's not even that close? He's been a ghost his whole career in the playoffs while playing no defense whereas Marner elevates his game and does everything he needs to win. I'd much rather have MM personally.

LOL his whole career, you do realize he's in year 3, you do realize he plays one of the toughest positions to play, you do realize he plays with rookies on his wings, you do realize he's a 40 goal. Yup! AM will be the better player but Marner is amazing too and us Leaf fans do know it. Playing the wing is much easier then playing center in the NHL. Do me a favour watch players play rather then reading stats.

 

[Raym11]

Do I really need to pull up the numerous amount of threads where the Leafs tell me AM is the best player on the team and it's not even that close? He's been a ghost his whole career in the playoffs while playing no defense whereas Marner elevates his game and does everything he needs to win. I'd much rather have MM personally.

Marner was a ghost vs the Caps while Matthews and Nylander were noticable and great.

Last year Matthews and Nylander were non existant, Marner stood out.

This year, Marner has elevated his play as a true game breaker, and Matthews has been alright in both wins. Nobody played good in game 2 except a couple players. He hasn't been a ghost his whole career.


I'd much rather have Marner right now as well, but the cool thing about it, is we have both of them. So we don't have to "much rather".

Leaf fans are gonna defend our players, but everyone and their mother knows Marner has been a better player than Matthews this year. You're not catching someone with goggles on expressing that to us. Matthews is heavily criticized.

If you really want though, pull up and link as many threads as you can from the last 4 months about how fans think Matthews is better. I'd love to see all of them. You know, to prove your point or whatever.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Surely you must understand that looking at goals only paints a terribly biased picture. This is an terrible way to evaluate players and compare a goal scorer shooting at 21.5% to an elite playmaking winger.

In all of the Matthews threads I pointed to his point totals compared to “comparable” players. I was told that goals matter more. Now I hear the opposite.

Get that? When I compare Matthews to playmakers, goals matter more. Yet when I follow that same logic with Marner, now goals don’t matter more?
There is NO consistency.

Point scored almost DOUBLE the amount of goals Marner did.

Neither Rantanen nor Point have ever been the best player on their line or team. Both have been significantly outproduced by linemates. Both have relied heavily on PP production.

Marner hasn't.

I’m saying it’s highly debatable to claim Marner is better than Tavares right now. Both of their games were elevated from playing together.

Literally isn't.

Let me spell it out for you. Marner is the best player on his team. He drives the bus.

Rantanen and Point, while great, are not the best players on their respective teams. Neither are the primary play drivers on their lines.

Line drivers are more valuable than passengers. I trust that Marner could be placed on any team in the league an be an elite talent.

Point? With his 21.5% sh%, his 35PPP and his playing with a 128P Kucherov? I trust he'd be a great player on any team in the league, but I don't trust he'd repeat his elite production from this year.

You’re whole point hinges in Marner being a line driver while Rantanen and Point aren’t. I disagree with that point. They work well with their linemates just like Marner works well with Tavares.

Literally no. I don't like Toronto. I don't like the leafs. I want them to do poorly. Despite all of this, I admit Marner is an unbelievable young player and they will likely get him locked up long term.

For someone who doesn’t like the leafs, you’ve sure let their media brainwash you about leaf players.

You don't follow the Canucks, and you have no clue what you're talking about. Toronto is blessed with an absurd amount of crazy skilled young players.

Vancouver isn't. Aside from Boeser who will get ~7-8M and Pettersson who might get ~10-12M, they have nobody good. Signing Marner doesn't condemn them to cap hell because they have nobody good they need to make room for.

Well, I live in Vancouver, so I know a thing for two.
You sign Marner to 15% of the cap, and Peterson will want at least that much. That’s 30% of the cap right there. Add in Boeser, Hughes, the potential Luongo 10 mil... yeah. Things not looking too good.
And let’s add in four drafts with no first round picks.

It would be a disaster for the Canucks. There is absolutely no way such an offer sheet will be signed.

But you can have Marner if you want him that much. Overall, I’d prefer Marner at a fair market deal. But if it comes to a $12 mil cap hit, I’d rather have the cap space and a rebuilding teams four first round picks.
So please, make it happen.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner was a ghost vs the Caps while Matthews and Nylander were noticable and great.

Matthews 5 pts
Nylander 4 points
Marner 4 points

How is this invisible?

 

[Connor McConnor]

LOL his whole career, you do realize he's in year 3, you do realize he plays one of the toughest positions to play, you do realize he plays with rookies on his wings, you do realize he's a 40 goal. Yup! AM will be the better player but Marner is amazing too and us Leaf fans do know it. Playing the wing is much easier then playing center in the NHL. Do me a favour watch players play rather then reading stats.

I've been watching them play and I don't notice AM on the ice whereas Marner is a difference maker. The stats lean towards Marner, my eye test leans towards Marner, his defensive play is better. AM goes against the 2nd pairings while Marner/Tavares go against Bergeron/Pasta/Marchand on a regular basis, I think that more than makes up for the linemates. Keep pumping that AM train though, he's a top 10 NHL player right!

 

[CloutierForVezina]

In all of the Matthews threads I pointed to his point totals compared to “comparable” players. I was told that goals matter more. Now I hear the opposite.

Get that? When I compare Matthews to playmakers, goals matter more. Yet when I follow that same logic with Marner, now goals don’t matter more?
There is NO consistency.

Point scored almost DOUBLE the amount of goals Marner did.

I mean I've not been in those threads so I can't really comment on what other people said. I don't know why you expect me to be consistent with other random people I've never interacted with before.

For someone who doesn’t like the leafs, you’ve sure let their media brainwash you about leaf players.

I don't watch leafs media so I'm not sure how they're brainwashing me.

I've been following Marner since pre-draft. He was one of my favourite prospects and he has quickly become a top player in the league. I was kinda crushed seeing him go to the leafs.

Well, I live in Vancouver, so I know a thing for two.
You sign Marner to 15% of the cap, and Peterson will want at least that much. That’s 30% of the cap right there. Add in Boeser, Hughes, the potential Luongo 10 mil... yeah. Things not looking too good.
And let’s add in four drafts with no first round picks.

It would be a disaster for the Canucks.

Canucks can easily afford Pettersson and Marner both at 12M and Boeser at 7-8M. Wouldn't even break a sweat. Hughes has earned absolutely nothing so far, but we have plenty of room for him as well when he needs a new contract.

I mean Leafs are going to easily afford Matthews at 11.6, Tavares at 11, Nylander at 7, Marner at ~11. And you think the Canucks somehow can't do that with half as many good players to pay?

There is absolutely no way such an offer sheet will be signed.

I mean I already agreed with that in my very first post. I don't think any team will succesfully offer sheet him, he'll just re-sign with the Leafs.

My only stance was that the Canucks could and should do it, not that they will.

 

[Blowfish]

Which team can realistically offer sheet Marner "4 firsts"?

If I'm the leafs I trade one of Matthews or Tavares.

 

[mashedpotato]

Seems to be consistently the best player the Leafs have.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mean I've not been in those threads so I can't really comment on what other people said. I don't know why you expect me to be consistent with other random people I've never interacted with before.

It’s still a little silly that in the Matthews threads everyone screamed at me that goals matter more. And now here I am I a Marner thread, and it’s the precise opposite.
Do you agree that, based on your metrics, Matthews is heavily overpaid?

I don't watch leafs media so I'm not sure how they're brainwashing me.

I've been following Marner since pre-draft. He was one of my favourite prospects and he has quickly become a top player in the league. I was kinda crushed seeing him go to the leafs.

It seems you’re a Marner super fan and, as such, are willing to overpay for him. I’m sure Rantanen has super fans as well, and so does Point.

Canucks can easily afford Pettersson and Marner both at 12M and Boeser at 7-8M. Wouldn't even break a sweat. Hughes has earned absolutely nothing so far, but we have plenty of room for him as well when he needs a new contract.

I mean Leafs are going to easily afford Matthews at 11.6, Tavares at 11, Nylander at 7, Marner at ~11. And you think the Canucks somehow can't do that with half as many good players to pay?

I don’t think the leafs can “easily” afford those players. We’re quite literally in cap hell. And this seems to stem from the Matthews overpayment. It’s caused a trickling effect. The Canucks are a young rebuilding team and I don’t think you’ve considered that trickling effect with overpaying Marner. Also, a rebuilding team giving up four first round picks seems nuts.

I mean I already agreed with that in my very first post. I don't think any team will succesfully offer sheet him, he'll just re-sign with the Leafs.

My only stance was that the Canucks could and should do it, not that they will.

[/QUOTE]
I think it would be a disaster for the nucks. I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Which team can realistically offer sheet Marner "4 firsts"?

If I'm the leafs I trade one of Matthews or Tavares.

None.

Any competitive team won’t have the cap space, and any rebuilding team won’t give up four first round picks.

There isn’t a single chance it happens.

 

[LeafsNation75]

There's no state income tax in Florida, so half of his salary wouldn't be taxed at the state level. When agents present the numbers to their players it's a take home amount compared to what other players are getting for their take home amount.
Just a quick income calculator showed $4,750,000 salary in Ontario would have to pay $2,500,000 in tax vs $850,000 in Florida. So there's a $1,650,000 discount that Tampa receives because of income tax advantage. So Marner would have to get $11,150,000 in Toronto to be equal.
Now compare Kucherov's $9.5 m as a % of the cap in 2018 and add accordingly to 2019. Say the cap goes up $3 million... that means Kucherov's 2018 Toronto salary would have been 14% of the cap. 2019 - 14% of $82.5m is $11.55 million this year to be an equal % of the cap adjusted to after tax money in Toronto.

Now throw in any additional Marner qualities that Kucherov doesn't have, blocked shots, fore check etc.

Kucherov's first 3 seasons... 18, 65 and 66 points.
Marner's first 3 season........ 61, 69 and 94 points.

Dubas will argue AM is a centre vs winger but the injuries and level of compete will erase that.

To keep peace in the church I say Toronto gives Marner $11.6 million.

I know about the no state income tax in Florida, however I think what Kyle Dubas see's is the AAV in the contract that Kucherov signed for.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I've been telling people for over a year that Marner is better and more valuable player to the Leafs than Matthews but everyone would get angry. Nice to see people finally waking up. Problem now is Marner shouldn't and won't take a penny less than Matthews and now the real problems set in for the Leafs.

Let's see if Dubas goes back on his idiotic " As long as I'm GM of the Maple Leafs Nylander will not be traded" speech because Nylander will have to go to make things work.

Fans need to send Mark Hunter a big Thank You card for fighting for Marner at the draft when Babcock was set on Hanifin.

Getting the Toronto kid turning into a superstar for the hometown Leafs locked up is the objective over anything else this offseason.

Can you give me a link to Dubas giving his idiotic " As long as I'm GM of the Maple Leafs Nylander will not be traded" speech? Specifically the part where he says the exact phrase "As long as I'm GM of the Maple Leafs Nylander will not be traded" word for word, considering you've quoted it. I must have just missed that press conference.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

It’s still a little silly that in the Matthews threads everyone screamed at me that goals matter more. And now here I am I a Marner thread, and it’s the precise opposite.
Do you agree that, based on your metrics, Matthews is heavily overpaid?

Whether or not Matthews is overpaid depends on how much better you think he can be, and if you think he can stay healthy.

If you think he can stay healthy and be a consistent 40G/90P #1C then he's absolutely on a fair deal.

If you think he's closer to a 35G/70P #1C who misses 15-20 games a year than he's probably severely overpaid.

I tend to think he's more of the former than the latter, but it certainly is a gamble.

It seems you’re a Marner super fan and, as such, are willing to overpay for him. I’m sure Rantanen has super fans as well, and so does Point.

I wouldn't really say superfan. I wouldn't be willing to pay anything over $12M or make an insane trade like Pettersson+Hughes for him, but if I can acquire him for a bunch of middling 1st round picks and cap space I absolutely jump on that chance 100 times out of 100.

I don’t think the leafs can “easily” afford those players. We’re quite literally in cap hell. And this seems to stem from the Matthews overpayment. It’s caused a trickling effect. The Canucks are a young rebuilding team and I don’t think you’ve considered that trickling effect with overpaying Marner. Also, a rebuilding team giving up four first round picks seems nuts.

Vancouver is picking 10th overall this year without even having Hughes in their lineup.

Where do you think they pick over the next 4 years with Pettersson developing, Hughes developing, Boeser developing, and Marner added on top of all that? It wouldn't be top-5. It probably wouldn't be top-10. Most likely they'd be a playoff bubble team and picking around 15-20 every year.

Take any random years and pick 4 random 1st round picks in the 10s. See if you think they're better than Marner. Most likely 2 of them will bust, one will become a bottom-6 foward or top-6 defenseman, and one might become a good 1st liner / top pairing D. Most likely just a pile of spare parts for an elite player, which is a quantity for quality trade you make every day.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I've been telling people for over a year that Marner is better and more valuable player to the Leafs than Matthews but everyone would get angry. Nice to see people finally waking up. Problem now is Marner shouldn't and won't take a penny less than Matthews and now the real problems set in for the Leafs.

Let's see if Dubas goes back on his idiotic " As long as I'm GM of the Maple Leafs Nylander will not be traded" speech because Nylander will have to go to make things work.

Fans need to send Mark Hunter a big Thank You card for fighting for Marner at the draft when Babcock was set on Hanifin.

Getting the Toronto kid turning into a superstar for the hometown Leafs locked up is the objective over anything else this offseason.

Prior to the 2015 draft I was one of a lot Leafs fans on here who wanted them to select Marner. So all Mark Hunter did was the right choice.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Whether or not Matthews is overpaid depends on how much better you think he can be, and if you think he can stay healthy.

If you think he can stay healthy and be a consistent 40G/90P #1C then he's absolutely on a fair deal.

If you think he's closer to a 35G/70P #1C who misses 15-20 games a year than he's probably severely overpaid.

I tend to think he's more of the former than the latter, but it certainly is a gamble.



I wouldn't really say superfan. I wouldn't be willing to pay anything over $12M or make an insane trade like Pettersson+Hughes for him, but if I can acquire him for a bunch of middling 1st round picks and cap space I absolutely jump on that chance 100 times out of 100.



Vancouver is picking 10th overall this year without even having Hughes in their lineup.

Where do you think they pick over the next 4 years with Pettersson developing, Hughes developing, Boeser developing, and Marner added on top of all that? It wouldn't be top-5. It probably wouldn't be top-10. Most likely they'd be a playoff bubble team and picking around 15-20 every year.

Take any random years and pick 4 random 1st round picks in the 10s. See if you think they're better than Marner. Most likely 2 of them will bust, one will become a bottom-6 foward or top-6 defenseman, and one might become a good 1st liner / top pairing D. Most likely just a pile of spare parts for an elite player, which is a quantity for quality trade you make every day.

If 4 first round picks is just no big deal, how come offer sheets pretty much never happen?

If you asked me as a leaf fan right now if I’d be ok with signing Marner for $12 mil as well as giving up 4 first round picks, I’d say HELL no.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Take any random years and pick 4 random 1st round picks in the 10s. See if you think they're better than Marner. Most likely 2 of them will bust, one will become a bottom-6 foward or top-6 defenseman, and one might become a good 1st liner / top pairing D. Most likely just a pile of spare parts for an elite player, which is a quantity for quality trade you make every day.

Maybe if your scouting staff is made up of morons.

I've seen a lot of people say some dumb things in this thread. Marner is amazing but he isn't the best player on this team. He is a really good playmaker benefiting from playing with 2 of the best goal scorers in the league. Matthews is the best player on this team, maybe Tavares is better now but Matthews just keeps getting better. As for the myth that he is a ghost in the playoffs in his rookie season he led the team in scoring in the playoffs, last season he led the team in shots while facing the hardest match up, It's not very likely that he shots at 3.5% over a stretch of playoff games. Hes second in shots on the team in the playoffs this year.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

If 4 first round picks is just no big deal, how come offer sheets pretty much never happen?

#1 Because you gotta get the player to actually sign it. Canucks can send out a million offer sheets but if nobody wants to come play in Vancouver, it means nothing. I suspect there's a lot of offer sheets sent out that never actually go anywhere, but that's purely my speculation and I have no source to back it up.

#2 Because the NHL is an old boys club with a lot of unwritten rules. Offer sheets are considered fighting dirty, and are frequently followed up with revenge offer sheets. If the other team ends up matching it anyways, you've just pissed off another franchise for no gain.

#3 Because some teams are more uncertain about their futures than others. Ottawa, for example, would be insane to give up any amount of 1st round picks in the next 4 years.

So you need a perfect storm of conditions. You need a GM willing to go against unwritten rules, you need a team with tons of cap space and that is fairly certain to be competitive for the next 4 years, you need a target team that is tight up against the cap so they can't match, you need a young elite player that even makes it to RFA status instead of being locked up early, and you need that specific young player to want to sign with your team.

 

[wetcoast]

Which team can realistically offer sheet Marner "4 firsts"?

If I'm the leafs I trade one of Matthews or Tavares.

Mathews was the guy teams (Arizona especially) would target, Marner less so.

The cap situation is really bleak in Toronto there is more needed aside from the Marner signing and if he gives a hometown discount then they will be able to spend on the back end which is an urgent need.

Also how management views the team going forward will depend somewhat on what happens this round and if they get knocked out or not.