Matthews vs Dahlin

[Randy Randerson]

Keeping emotion out of polls with the Leafs involved would require at a minimum restricting their fans from posting in them. What you should propose is a Dahlin / Matthews pool, without Sabres or Leafs fans.

you know that won't work. Eichel vs. Dahlin is an ideal scenario with both players being on the same team, renders feelings towards the team moot for both Sabres and non-Sabres fans

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

you know that won't work. Eichel vs. Dahlin is an ideal scenario with both players being on the same team, renders feelings towards the team moot for both Sabres and non-Sabres fans

And that shows people are high on Dahlin, which isn't surprising given that a similar pool showed him neck and neck with Matthews. The simpler answer is that people believe he's a similar talent, not that they're hiding in their basements stabbing old voodoo dolls of Darcy Tucker.

 

[Randy Randerson]

And that shows people are high on Dahlin, which isn't surprising given that a similar pool showed him neck and neck with Matthews. The simpler answer is that people believe he's a similar talent, not that they're hiding in their basements stabbing old voodoo dolls of Darcy Tucker.

again, my belief here is that this result is being skewed by "shiny new toy syndrome" not anti Leafs bias. I think you're trying to paint me as some sort of HFLeafs conspiracy theorist, which I'm not, I just recognize that people get emotional about the Leafs (both for and against) so thought it would be a truer read if that element were removed

you're proving that people get emotional about the Leafs though

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

again, my belief here is that this result is being skewed by "shiny new toy syndrome" not anti Leafs bias. I think you're trying to paint me as some sort of HFLeafs conspiracy theorist, which I'm not, I just recognize that people get emotional about the Leafs (both for and against) so thought it would be a truer read if that element were removed

you're proving that people get emotional about the Leafs though

My appeals to recognize that people are acting earnestly and not in some contrived fashion is overly emotional? Well, more power to you I guess.

 

[cgf]

might be, I'd like to see it anyway. Whether you believe pro or anti Leaf bias, there's definitely an emotional reaction to the Leafs on HF so would be good to see it with that removed

and for the record, that poll should be Eichel in a landslide for the same reason that this one should be Matthews in a landslide - gotta account for the risk

Fair enough, I'm partial towards you guys cause I'm a knicks fan and we are kindred spirits in our respective sports...except you don't have an owner that ensures the kind of fullblown dedication to a rebuild you had isn't an option for us...but we have very similar histories with similarly massive fanbases, similarly wealthy teams, and our massive fanbases similarly include more...extreme elements that can polarize other fanbases' perception of us.

But I think that most Sabres will pick Dahlin in a landslide over Eichel...if only just because new-is-always-bettter...and he'll get most of the neutrals because he's just a higher level talent...at least IMO, as I'm in the camp that sees him as a McDavid level prospect, and not "just" as the McDavid of blueline prospects...if that distinction makes sense to anyone other than me lol.

 

[Randy Randerson]

My appeals to recognize that people are acting earnestly and not in some contrived fashion is overly emotional? Well, more power to you I guess.

you quoted a post that cited "pro or anti Leafs bias", ignored the "pro" and tried to start an argument that painted Leaf fans (or me specifically, not sure how you meant it) as believing that other fanbases use voodoo dolls of D'arcy Tucker, when my intent was just to remove the feelings about the Leafs entirely to concentrate on the feelings about the prospects/players themselves. That certainly looks like you have some feelings towards the Leafs or their HF fanbase representatives

Fair enough, I'm partial towards you guys cause I'm a knicks fan and we are kindred spirits in our respective sports...except you don't have an owner that ensures the kind of fullblown dedication to a rebuild you had isn't an option for us, but we have very similar histories with similar massive fanbases, similarly wealthy teams, and our massive fanbases similarly include more...extreme elements that definitely polarize other fanbases' perception of us.

But I think that most Sabres will pick Dahlin in a landslide over Eichel...if only just because new-is-always-bettter...and he'll get most of the neutrals because he's just a higher level talent...at least IMO, as I'm in the camp that sees him as a McDavid level prospect, not "just" the McDavid of blueline prospects, if that distinction makes sense to anyone other than me lol.

I see it exactly the same, Barney Stinson's only rule applies to HF's view of prospects

I think Dahlin is every bit the equal of Matthews or Eichel as a prospect (I'm sure there's a tiny marginal difference for consensus on ceiling, but they tier together for me). But with an asset of that level, I think you have to take the sure thing....Daigle flopped, it can happen again even if it's not tremendously likely

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

you quoted a post that cited "pro or anti Leafs bias", ignored the "pro" and tried to start an argument that painted Leaf fans (or me specifically, not sure how you meant it) as believing that other fanbases use voodoo dolls of D'arcy Tucker, when my intent was just to remove the feelings about the Leafs entirely to concentrate on the feelings about the prospects/players themselves. That certainly looks like you have some feelings towards the Leafs or their HF fanbase representatives

You think there's a lot of pro-leaf bias in the Dahlin - Matthews voting? That Dahlin should be seen as the stronger prospect? I started this discussion by pointing to a poll which contained zero possibility for 1st order leaf bias, Eichel-Dahlin. Further discussion was in response to your comments.

I have no particular feelings for or against the leafs fans. There are individual fans who I find tiresome and absurd, but the same can be said for most team's fans.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You think there's a lot of pro-leaf bias in the Dahlin - Matthews voting? That Dahlin should be seen as the stronger prospect? I started this discussion by pointing to a poll which contained zero possibility for 1st order leaf bias, Eichel-Dahlin. Further discussion was in response to your comments.

I have no particular feelings for or against the leafs fans. There are individual fans who I find tiresome and absurd, but the same can be said for most team's fans.

I think it's hard to know where the needle landed between pro and anti, but I acknowledge that there's an emotional reaction to the Leafs on HF both for and against, so rather than let that taint the results I thought I'd try a poll where that wasn't a factor. There's definitely camps of people who let their feelings on the Leafs delude their opinions on Leaf players or comparisons with Leaf players, both for and against, so I was looking to remove that element

I think in this case, your feelings about certain HFLeaf posters affected your reaction to my post - you did throw out insinuations about anti-Leaf bias paranoia a couple of times, where my initial post equally covered biases in both directions. I was just looking to remove that element from a poll

 

[cgf]

I see it exactly the same, Barney Stinson's only rule applies to HF's view of prospects

I think Dahlin is every bit the equal of Matthews or Eichel as a prospect (I'm sure there's a tiny marginal difference for consensus on ceiling, but they tier together for me). But with an asset of that level, I think you have to take the sure thing....Daigle flopped, it can happen again even if it's not tremendously likely

Which I get, I just don't agree with. I think Dahlin is the equal of McDavid as a prospect, not Matthews or Eichel. So even though he certainly could bust, I think that if he doesn't, passing on him for Eichel, Matthews or even MacKinnon...I'm an avs fan so let's put my bias on the table to...would be a fireable offense as well.

And though stinson's rule is something we must always be wary of, especially here on hf, sometimes new is just better. McDavid did turn out to be McDavid, ya know?

 

[ulvvf]

Forward are more importent, so I pick Matthews. D-men are so overrated by people.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Which I get, I just don't agree with. I think Dahlin is the equal of McDavid as a prospect, not Matthews or Eichel. So even though he certainly could bust, I think that if he doesn't, passing on him for Eichel, Matthews or even MacKinnon...I'm an avs fan so let's put my bias on the table to...would be a fireable offense as well.

And though stinson's rule is something we must always be wary of, especially here on hf, sometimes new is just better. McDavid did turn out to be McDavid, ya know?

I haven't seen anyone with a good reputation put Dahlin in the McDavid class, if that's your opinion I can understand why you would vote that way. I've seen him positioned as being a special player against the D prospects of the last 20 years, but I think that all of the near generational/elite franchise type prospect (the Matthews/Eichel/Tavares/MacKinnon/etc tier) have been forwards in that time so it skews the perception a bit

McDavid's junior production put him into that "generational" type company, Hedman more than matched Dahlin's SHL production in his draft year. I think there was more tangible smoke around the generational fire for McDavid, where Dahlin's is mostly based on projection (and don't get me wrong, his highlights are incredible). For sure the fact that McDavid turned out makes that argument stronger too, acknowledged

Daigle had generational production and flopped, so my opinion on Dahlin vs Eichel Matthews is entirely about risk - a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush kind of thing

 

[cgf]

I haven't seen anyone with a good reputation put Dahlin in the McDavid class, if that's your opinion I can understand why you would vote that way. I've seen him positioned as being a special player against the D prospects of the last 20 years, but I think that all of the near generational/elite franchise type prospect (the Matthews/Eichel/Tavares/MacKinnon/etc tier) have been forwards in that time so it skews the perception a bit

McDavid's junior production put him into that "generational" type company, Hedman more than matched Dahlin's SHL production in his draft year. I think there was more tangible smoke around the generational fire for McDavid, where Dahlin's is mostly based on projection (and don't get me wrong, his highlights are incredible). For sure the fact that McDavid turned out makes that argument stronger too, acknowledged

Daigle had generational production and flopped, so my opinion on Dahlin vs Eichel Matthews is entirely about risk - a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush kind of thing

I think that's more a problem of wording and how there not having been a generational blueliner in so long means draft commentators are less like to compare him to the elite forward prospects like that. For what it's worth, I've read best blueline prospect since Potvin from reputable folks and I think that's pretty similar, or at least doesn't exclude them from agreeing with my position.

As I do think Dahlin is a different caliber talent to Hedman, despite similar production. I think that's actually a nice example of a few trends that I think cause us on HF to sometimes have warped perceptions of players that we don't watch too often. We tend to conflate production with talent a bit too much without remembering that production depends on a lot more than just the individual player being discussed. Especially with younger players who are still at the stage of their careers where I'd prefer them to be making mistakes from trying things out that might not work but help them hone their skill/creativity to pull things off that should work. While also treating development as much more linear than it really is when discussing individual players, and in particular when we discuss the truly extraordinary talents.

So even if the bigger & stronger Hedman was producing similarly in SHL at the same age because he was just as good as Dahlin at this same point in their careers, that doesn't mean that Dahlin doesn't have superior talent and that it won't become more prevalent as both get closer to their primes...barring the unpredictable shocking busts who just don't care enough like Daigle or get destroyed by injuries like Lindros; since I think we can both agree that Dahlin won't bust because of undiagnosed-ADHD like Yakubov.

On similar grounds, I disagree with you about what made McDavid so special, at least what it was that convinced me of how special he was. His production was insane, obviously, but what sold me on him wasn't the numbers. It was watching the talent, creativity, skating, drive, and everything that went into how he put up those numbers. Watching Dahlin has enamored me the same way and often leaves me simply in awe the way McDavid did after I finally got over the fact that he was just a higher level talent than MacK & Sasha (I was a huge Barkov fan as well).

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think that's more a problem of wording and how there not having been a generational blueliner in so long means draft commentators are less like to compare him to the elite forward prospects like that. For what it's worth, I've read best blueline prospect since Potvin from reputable folks and I think that's pretty similar, or at least doesn't exclude them from agreeing with my position.

As I do think Dahlin is a different caliber talent to Hedman, despite similar production. I think that's actually a nice example of a few trends that I think cause us on HF to sometimes have warped perceptions of players that we don't watch too often. We tend to conflate production with talent a bit too much without remembering that production depends on a lot more than just the individual player being discussed. Especially with younger players who are still at the stage of their careers where I'd prefer them to be making mistakes from trying things out that might not work but help them hone their skill/creativity to pull things off that should work. While also treating development as much more linear than it really is when discussing individual players, and in particular when we discuss the truly extraordinary talents.

So even if the bigger & stronger Hedman was producing similarly in SHL at the same age because he was just as good as Dahlin at this same point in their careers, that doesn't mean that Dahlin doesn't have superior talent and that it won't become more prevalent as both get closer to their primes...barring the unpredictable shocking busts who just don't care enough like Daigle or get destroyed by injuries like Lindros; since I think we can both agree that Dahlin won't bust because of undiagnosed-ADHD like Yakubov.

On similar grounds, I disagree with you about what made McDavid so special, at least what it was that convinced me of how special he was. His production was insane, obviously, but what sold me on him wasn't the numbers. It was watching the talent, creativity, skating, drive, and everything that went into how he put up those numbers. Watching Dahlin has enamored me the same way and often leaves me simply in awe the way McDavid did after I finally got over the fact that he was just a higher level talent than MacK & Sasha (I was a huge Barkov fan as well).

Agree on a lot of this, I think Pronger was near that level as well and really only went second because of how crazy Daigle's potential was. I'd have Dahlin ranked a bit higher than Hedman/Jones/Doughty but not up to the McDavid tier. I think when comparing guys at that level we need to drop the positional constraint though, there's too few comps for guys that good and just happens to be that most of them are centers

I think one thing that's overlooked as well is how big the margin for error is on projecting defensemen, lots of them beat their draft day ceiling projections like Karlsson and the slough of 2nd round and later drafted #1Dmen.

on production, historically speaking the numbers are a better indicator of future results than anything but I get what you're saying with Dahlin, his highlights are nuts. McDavid did both, he was able to make his crazy talent produce offense at generational rates. I don't think you get to either the generational or near-generational tier without the talent being very obvious, but when it shows up on the scoresheet so regularly that makes scouts take notice

I do think Dahlin plays a similar brand of hockey to Subban/Gardiner where he spends a lot of time going east to west and making toe drag plays where getting picked means a breakaway for the other team, so I think he'll be a higher event player than Hedman/Doughty/Jones as well both in the good and bad sense - he'll contribute to more scoring chances but he'll take risks more regularly than his peers too. After watching Gardiner for so long, I hope that Dahlin is bright enough to limit those risks to the offensive side of center ice, if Gardiner did that he'd be a top pairing defenseman and he's not in nearly the same talent tier as Dahlin

 

[cgf]

Agree on a lot of this, I think Pronger was near that level as well and really only went second because of how crazy Daigle's potential was. I'd have Dahlin ranked a bit higher than Hedman/Jones/Doughty but not up to the McDavid tier. I think when comparing guys at that level we need to drop the positional constraint though, there's too few comps for guys that good and just happens to be that most of them are centers

I think one thing that's overlooked as well is how big the margin for error is on projecting defensemen, lots of them beat their draft day ceiling projections like Karlsson and the slough of 2nd round and later drafted #1Dmen.

on production, historically speaking the numbers are a better indicator of future results than anything but I get what you're saying with Dahlin, his highlights are nuts. McDavid did both, he was able to make his crazy talent produce offense at generational rates. I don't think you get to either the generational or near-generational tier without the talent being very obvious, but when it shows up on the scoresheet so regularly that makes scouts take notice

I do think Dahlin plays a similar brand of hockey to Subban/Gardiner where he spends a lot of time going east to west and making toe drag plays where getting picked means a breakaway for the other team, so I think he'll be a higher event player than Hedman/Doughty/Jones as well both in the good and bad sense - he'll contribute to more scoring chances but he'll take risks more regularly than his peers too. After watching Gardiner for so long, I hope that Dahlin is bright enough to limit those risks to the offensive side of center ice, if Gardiner did that he'd be a top pairing defenseman and he's not in nearly the same talent tier as Dahlin

I didn't start following youth hockey until Sakic retired and the avs finally accepted that we needed to rebuild, so I can't say on Pronger, but I can certainly believe it just based off of what he became in the NHL for St Louis. I'm in full agreement that we (and draft analysts) should drop the positional constraints when discussing this order of prospect; but hockey is a conservative sport that can be very stuck in its ways. And comparing forwards to forwards & blueliners to blueliners is definitely one of those things that folks are oddly resistant to.

Even more than Dahlin's highlights, which are stupefying, what has blown me away so much about him is the poise & control with which he played whenever I caught his SHL games. He didn't get any points in two or three of them, and he only got one point (maybe two) in a couple of the others, but even in those games the talent & creativity just smacked me in the face and it was obvious that they allowed him to do things that hockey players, even awesome hockey players, generally can't do. Even though he's clearly still figuring out just how dominant he can be, he showed that he already had a pretty good feel for how to use his gifts to control the game when he was on the ice...and I'm genuinely a little bummed that the Hawks didn't get him, despite them being divisional rivals, cause if they had, I could watch him live on a regular basis

Blueliners being less predictable is certainly a factor to keep in mind when assessing Rasmus, and; combined with the more unprecedented production McDavid had in his favor; is why I would vote McDavid as a prospect over Dahlin as a prospect. But I do think that their talent is comparable and on a tier of their own from the other franchise-caliber talents. And it helps that the league has been getting so much better at projecting & drafting blueliners, so I'm not as anxious about Dahlin's development being mishandled as I would have been if he was being drafted 15 years ago.

Production is important because you don't get style points in hockey, but production is something that I worry about more on a pass/fall basis. Meaning, as long as a kid has shown that he can produce well when put in a role to produce, I'm not as interested in quite how well he is producing while still developing. As long as that base level of production that I think his talent warrants, is reached or has been in the past, if current circumstances aren't favorable to producing up to his talent, then that's all I'm really worried about. Cause like I said I prefer for talented kids to err on the side of risk when they are still developing, learning when to play it safe comes with experience and can always come later, but there's no better place to hone your creativity and learn how to pull off the risky, than the youth levels and your pre-NHL days.

 

[wedge]

there is still a change that Dahlin becomes an Erik Johnson. Good d-man but not generational. That's why I'll take the proven Matthews.

 

[kylbaz]

Matthews and it's not even close. I don't know how Dahlin got so over rated.

 

[kylbaz]

I take the risk and pick Dahlin and his massive upside. Matthews is a much safer pick though and projects to be a top 10 player himself but if Dahlin pans out you’re looking at a generational Dman.

You'd risk him possibly being a below average player or generational player vs a guy that has already proven he can be a top 10 player if not top 5 player in the league. That's pretty silly of a gamble.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I didn't start following youth hockey until Sakic retired and the avs finally accepted that we needed to rebuild, so I can't say on Pronger, but I can certainly believe it just based off of what he became in the NHL for St Louis. I'm in full agreement that we (and draft analysts) should drop the positional constraints when discussing this order of prospect; but hockey is a conservative sport that can be very stuck in its ways. And comparing forwards to forwards & blueliners to blueliners is definitely one of those things that folks are oddly resistant to.

Even more than Dahlin's highlights, which are stupefying, what has blown me away so much about him is the poise & control with which he played whenever I caught his SHL games. He didn't get any points in two or three of them, and he only got one point (maybe two) in a couple of the others, but even in those games the talent & creativity just smacked me in the face and it was obvious that they allowed him to do things that hockey players, even awesome hockey players, generally can't do. Even though he's clearly still figuring out just how dominant he can be, he showed that he already had a pretty good feel for how to use his gifts to control the game when he was on the ice...and I'm genuinely a little bummed that the Hawks didn't get him, despite them being divisional rivals, cause if they had, I could watch him live on a regular basis

Blueliners being less predictable is certainly a factor to keep in mind when assessing Rasmus, and; combined with the more unprecedented production McDavid had in his favor; is why I would vote McDavid as a prospect over Dahlin as a prospect. But I do think that their talent is comparable and on a tier of their own from the other franchise-caliber talents. And it helps that the league has been getting so much better at projecting & drafting blueliners, so I'm not as anxious about Dahlin's development being mishandled as I would have been if he was being drafted 15 years ago.

Production is important because you don't get style points in hockey, but production is something that I worry about more on a pass/fall basis. Meaning, as long as a kid has shown that he can produce well when put in a role to produce, I'm not as interested in quite how well he is producing while still developing. As long as that base level of production that I think his talent warrants, is reached or has been in the past, if current circumstances aren't favorable to producing up to his talent, then that's all I'm really worried about. Cause like I said I prefer for talented kids to err on the side of risk when they are still developing, learning when to play it safe comes with experience and can always come later, but there's no better place to hone your creativity and learn how to pull off the risky, than the youth levels and your pre-NHL days.

one thing I'm a little weary about on him is all those delay and toe-drag plays, he's very poised but he's on bigger ice against weaker competition so I think he'll get stripped on some of those while he's learning. I do think there will be some times that Buffalo fans are frustrated with him, which will be offset by times that they're in awe of him

I'm hoping he doesn't hit his ceiling just so it's a little less daunting for the Leafs to play Buffalo often but I'm sure he's going to be very good

 

[Paul4587]

You'd risk him possibly being a below average player or generational player vs a guy that has already proven he can be a top 10 player if not top 5 player in the league. That's pretty silly of a gamble.

Let’s be realistic Dahlin isn’t going to be a below average player.

Also Matthews isn’t a top 10 player yet. He may be there as soon as next year but I wouldn’t even consider him a top 10 centre at this point.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

We know Matthews is a playoff chocker, but there is a chance Dahlin isn't. I go Dahlin.

 

[jj cale]

There is no way I could pick Dahlin here without seeing him play in the nhl for at least a couple of seasons.

There is just not enough to go on, especially as a defense prospect.

 

[kylbaz]

There is no way I could pick Dahlin here without seeing him play in the nhl for at least a couple of seasons.

There is just not enough to go on, especially as a defense prospect.

Exactly. Pretty silly for anyone to pick him over Matthews who has already proven himself.

 

[jj cale]

Exactly. Pretty silly for anyone to pick him over Matthews who has already proven himself.

And Matthews is going to get even better yet.

 

[Matt Ress]

Forget Hedman, Lidstrom, Karlsson... Dahlin will be the Barry Sanders of the NHL. Flashy, humble, hard working, prepared. Some douche like Emmit Smith might end up with better stats but we'll know who the GOAT is.

 

[loyaltotheend]

Forget Hedman, Lidstrom, Karlsson... Dahlin will be the Barry Sanders of the NHL. Flashy, humble, hard working, prepared. Some *****e like Emmit Smith might end up with better stats but we'll know who the GOAT is.

I think posts like this is why there's a Dahlin overrated poll. Yikes