Matthews vs Dahlin

[olli]

I'd take the proven Matthews.

 

[nobody]

While I think it’s Matthews, this thread is pretty rich in it of itself.

Flashback two seasons ago, and Matthews was winning similar polls to these.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[Randy Randerson]

please show me some clips of jones / hedman doing what dahlin does, i'll wait. also fancier is an understatement, show me anything close to this in a MENS league

yes, he's fancier, that's been said. He spends way more time going east-west than either Jones or Hedman, which is also risky - he'll get stripped for breakaways occasionally and look really bad.

Anyway, if you think he's going to be a top 9 all time scoring defenseman while playing in a much lower scoring era than any other player on that list, you're much higher on him than anyone I've seen and I would suggest that you're setting yourself up for disappointment

 

[olli]

I don't really think that's true. I mean, the best two best defenders in the league (Doughty and Karlsson), are rarely significantly more valuable than the top 5 centers in the league. Centers drive plays at 5v5 more than any other position. I'd say Matthews pretty clearly has the upside of being the 2nd best center of his generation behind McDavid (if you consider Crosby, Malkin, etc the next generation), and is probably more likely to hit that than Dahlin is to hit being the best defender of his generation. Dahlin has a crazy amount of upside but has significantly more risk, and if both hit there ultimate upside (which Matthews is closer and more likely to at this point), I don't think there is a gap, the 2nd best center every year is probably more valuable than the best defender.

Look, I'm a Leafs fan, so bias-creeps in. But, I would apply the same statement I just made about Matthews to Eichel (although, I think Matthews is slightly ahead and therefore has a better chance to be the 2nd best center behind McDavid).

While I agree that Matthews will probably end up being the 2nd best C of his generation, it doesn't mean he'll be the 2nd best C every year of his prime. The same thing can be said about Dahlin being the best defensemen every year of his prime.

 

[93LEAFS]

While I agree that Matthews will probably end up being the 2nd best C of his generation, it doesn't mean he'll be the 2nd best C every year of his prime. The same thing can be said about Dahlin being the best defensemen every year of his prime.

That was basically the logic. I'm just using that as a rough baseline. Both have risk attached to that projection, and it won't hold yearly. But, if you don't want to make it each year, the 2nd best center for a generation is generally better than the best defenceman for a generation. I also would think Matthews has less risk in that projection at this point.

 

[olli]

That was basically the logic. I'm just using that as a rough baseline. Both have risk attached to that projection, and it won't hold yearly. But, if you don't want to make it each year, the 2nd best center for a generation is generally better than the best defenceman for a generation. I also would think Matthews has less risk in that projection at this point.

Yes, I'd agree with that.

 

[EP40 AKA Lil Wayne]

Matthews. As prospects I value them about the same. Reasons for going with Matthews is that he playing C and lived up to hype so far.

 

[flamesforcup]

lol so much crying from a certain fanbase in this thread.
On another note surprised at how long it took for this thread to be made after the lottery

 

[Brock Radunske]

Could you at least try to not be incompetent?

2006 and 2016.

Congrats. TWO appearances in a 12 year span.

Boy, the Leafs have had.....three? Surely they've won a series in that span.

1. 06/07 - nope
2. 07/08 - nope
3. 08/09 - nope
4. 09/10 - nope (1st overall)
5. 10/11 - nope (1st overall)
6. 11/12 - nope (1st overall)
7. 12/13 - nope
8. 13/14 - nope
9. 14/15 - nope (1st overall)
10. 15/16 - nope
11. 16/17 - yes
12. 17/18 - nope

Count again, genius.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

I'll take Dahlin over the guy who's getting outscored by Ryan Reaves in these playoffs.

 

[PuckSeparator]

I'll take Dahlin over the guy who's getting outscored by Ryan Reaves in these playoffs.

 

[Plural]

I think his stats actually undervalue Matthews. He doesn't get elite powerplay time. If he ever starts to get that extra minute to a minute 30 most elite players get, his numbers will be higher than what he currently is. He was on pace for 83 points this year, and was a 40 goal scorer as a 19 year old. I think he pretty clearly has Sakic level upside. And, the only defender of the past 30 years I'd probably take over Sakic is Bourque, and that's still debatable.

I don't think it is. Bourque over Sakic is a no brainer IMO. So is Lidstrom. Pronger had so much injury issues that I wouldn't take him but his impact when he played was good enough.

Sakic is a borderline top-10 C all-time so it's entirely unreasonable to project Matthews to have similar career than he did.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I don't think it is. Bourque over Sakic is a no brainer IMO. So is Lidstrom. Pronger had so much injury issues that I wouldn't take him but his impact when he played was good enough.

Sakic is a borderline top-10 C all-time so it's entirely unreasonable to project Matthews to have similar career than he did.

Fair, but Bourque is a similarly unreasonable projection for Dahlin. I think the point is to compare them on the off-chance that they both reach their very high upsides

 

[Plural]

Fair, but Bourque is a similarly unreasonable projection for Dahlin. I think the point is to compare them on the off-chance that they both reach their very high upsides

Ahh, I get it. Bourque against Sakic is not debatable though. Bourque is arguably the 2nd greatest D ever and arguably a top-10 player all-time. Sakic, as great as he was is not in the top-20.

 

[Laineux]

Ahh, I get it. Bourque against Sakic is not debatable though. Bourque is arguably the 2nd greatest D ever and arguably a top-10 player all-time. Sakic, as great as he was is not in the top-20.

I don't think it's that black and white. You could make an argument based on positional importance that Sakic would be more valuable despite ranking clearly lower within his position.

Centers tend to have bigger impact than defencemen and if you think about it it's not really that easy to choose whether you'd take a top 5 center over the best defender in the world.

 

[Volica]

I don't think it is. Bourque over Sakic is a no brainer IMO. So is Lidstrom. Pronger had so much injury issues that I wouldn't take him but his impact when he played was good enough.

Sakic is a borderline top-10 C all-time so it's entirely unreasonable to project Matthews to have similar career than he did.

Yeeeesh.
A guy with a 20 year career, 1600+ points, a couple cups, a gold medal, 10+ all-star games, Conn Smythe, Hart, first ballot-HOFer...

Maybe let the Matthews actually prove something before we compare him to a guy who was probably the best Centre in the league between like 1998-2002.

 

[nobody]

I think a lot of people are in for disappointment this season. As good as Dahlin is, he's going to have to anchor a terrible D-core on a terrible team with a sophomore coach. I wouldn't bet on Dahlin looking like a star for atleast 3-4 years, similar to Hedman.

 

[Plural]

I don't think it's that black and white. You could make an argument based on positional importance that Sakic would be more valuable despite ranking clearly lower within his position.

Centers tend to have bigger impact than defencemen and if you think about it it's not really that easy to choose whether you'd take a top 5 center over the best defender in the world.

I'm sure there have been times when the 5th best C in the world would be a good pick over the best D in the world. However, regarding Sakic and Bourque there's no debate. Ray was among the most influential defensemen ever. His skating and puck carrying skills impacted the ice just as much as elite C in that regard. If we're going by the "C position impacts the game more because of involvement with the puck" argument then we should acknowledge that Bourque had elite-C qualities in his puck carrying and passing skills.

 

[X66]

Yeeeesh.
A guy with a 20 year career, 1600+ points, a couple cups, a gold medal, 10+ all-star games, Conn Smythe, Hart, first ballot-HOFer...

Maybe let the Matthews actually prove something before we compare him to a guy who was probably the best Centre in the league between like 1998-2002.

People make style comparisons all the time, it's no big deal.

I've said long before Matthews was a Leaf that his style is actually a lot like a Hybrid of Sakic and Forsberg(minus the edge).

That doesn't mean he's better than both players, just talking style.

 

[Thenameless]

The question though, isn't what your teams need. Its if you were starting a team with nothing, who would you take to build your franchise around.

I think in that scenario, you have to take Eichel or Matthews. For the Leafs, I'd probably take Eichel over Dahlin even with the cap-hit and weaker D. Just because of how sure a thing it is, and having 3 centers who can dominate play like this would wear teams down and off-set having sub-par D.

It's a good theory, but there are other ways of looking at it too. A dominant two-way defenseman playing 25-30 minutes a game would make so many players better. You have 12 forwards and 6 d-men for the most part. Having a better No. 1 defenseman has a greater "pushdown" effect on the position as your current No. 1 becomes your No. 2....all the way to No. 5 becomes No. 6, and your No. 6 goes to the pressbox - not to mention the benefit to your offense with better d-men in transition. With the 12 forwards, the pushdown effect of a better No. 2 or No. 3 center is not as great (assuming the center, Eichel in this case, isn't as good as Matthews). Can't really go wrong either way.

 

[Volica]

People make style comparisons all the time, it's no big deal.

I've said long before Matthews was a Leaf that his style is actually a lot like a Hybrid of Sakic and Forsberg(minus the edge).

That doesn't mean he's better than both players, just talking style.

This wasn't a style comparison. This was 'Sakic level upside'.

 

[X66]

This wasn't a style comparison. This was 'Sakic level upside'.

Is that really a terrible thing to say though?

That's not saying he's Joe Sakic right now.

Matthews is a tier 1 first overall pick, he's done nothing but smash expectations so far.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't think it is. Bourque over Sakic is a no brainer IMO. So is Lidstrom. Pronger had so much injury issues that I wouldn't take him but his impact when he played was good enough.

Sakic is a borderline top-10 C all-time so it's entirely unreasonable to project Matthews to have similar career than he did.

If it is unreasonable to project Matthews to be like Sakic, it is unreasonable to project Dahlin to be Lidstrom or Bourque. Which is basically what is happening when people are saying they would take Dahlin.

I also don't think its a no-brainer. There is still a decent argument for Sakic over Bourque, although I would lean Bourque.

 

[93LEAFS]

This wasn't a style comparison. This was 'Sakic level upside'.

If Matthews hits his ceiling he's a Joe Sakic level player. Considering how often we see how elite Dahlin will be and a perennial Norris winner, which people are implying here, it is equally absurd to imply Dahlin has Bourque or Lidstrom level upside, which is the main argument to take him here.

 

[Ninety7]

You wanna know how you can tell Matthews and the Leafs other young players are bonafide stars in the making? Everyone else compares their elite young players or prospects to them. Gimme Matthews. Worst thing you end up with him is a 45-50 goal, 85 point center with a good two way game. Too much risk for Dahlin and a reward that might not even be that much better, if at all.

How’s that the worst thing you end up with when he’s never even hit those numbers in his career?