Matthews vs Dahlin

[93LEAFS]

If it's pre draft honestly It's 50/50 think i would go with dahlin he's a human highlight wheel and I can't remember the last time a D-man was doing what he is doing at his age. Edge Work, Skating , zone entry's, Hands, shooting, plays Physical and is Super smart with/without the puck he checks off all boxes for me. attitude and work ethic as well the kid is so humble and eager to get better at hockey he wants to be Karlson. Love his kid, Obviously yeah I'm a buffalo fan so I'm bias. If your'e talking empty roster and you have a choice between 3rd year matthews and 1st year dahlin yeah you'd be crazy to not pick matthews but at the same time if a kid has a chance / potential to be the best d-man in the league over a centre who has potential to be a top 5 centre in the league you gotta pick the D-man

I don't really think that's true. I mean, the best two best defenders in the league (Doughty and Karlsson), are rarely significantly more valuable than the top 5 centers in the league. Centers drive plays at 5v5 more than any other position. I'd say Matthews pretty clearly has the upside of being the 2nd best center of his generation behind McDavid (if you consider Crosby, Malkin, etc the next generation), and is probably more likely to hit that than Dahlin is to hit being the best defender of his generation. Dahlin has a crazy amount of upside but has significantly more risk, and if both hit there ultimate upside (which Matthews is closer and more likely to at this point), I don't think there is a gap, the 2nd best center every year is probably more valuable than the best defender.

Look, I'm a Leafs fan, so bias-creeps in. But, I would apply the same statement I just made about Matthews to Eichel (although, I think Matthews is slightly ahead and therefore has a better chance to be the 2nd best center behind McDavid).

 

[Randy Randerson]

If it's pre draft honestly It's 50/50 think i would go with dahlin he's a human highlight wheel and I can't remember the last time a D-man was doing what he is doing at his age. Edge Work, Skating , zone entry's, Hands, shooting, plays Physical and is Super smart with/without the puck he checks off all boxes for me. attitude and work ethic as well the kid is so humble and eager to get better at hockey he wants to be Karlson. Love his kid, Obviously yeah I'm a buffalo fan so I'm bias. If your'e talking empty roster and you have a choice between 3rd year matthews and 1st year dahlin yeah you'd be crazy to not pick matthews but at the same time if a kid has a chance / potential to be the best d-man in the league over a centre who has potential to be a top 5 centre in the league you gotta pick the D-man

was going to say something similar to 93Leafs - remove the position for ranking purposes and just look at it as players that you'd want to build a franchise around. Personally I end up quite a ways down the list before I get to a defenseman (Crosby, McDavid, Malkin, probably Eichel and Matthews, then a bunch of guys that are close to par with Doughty/Karlsson in Barkov, Tavares, Stamkoes, Scheifele, etc)

so to me, the potential to be the best defenseman in the world is a bit misleading as to how that guy compares to centers because the group of centers is more competitive

 

[Tavares to Marner]

A guy whos never laced for the NHL vs a proven 40 goal scorer?

[mod]

 

[nickdawg95]

I don't really think that's true. I mean, the best two best defenders in the league (Doughty and Karlsson), are rarely significantly more valuable than the top 5 centers in the league. Centers drive plays at 5v5 more than any other position. I'd say Matthews pretty clearly has the upside of being the 2nd best center of his generation behind McDavid (if you consider Crosby, Malkin, etc the next generation), and is probably more likely to hit that than Dahlin is to hit being the best defender of his generation. Dahlin has a crazy amount of upside but has significantly more risk, and if both hit there ultimate upside (which Matthews is closer and more likely to at this point), I don't think there is a gap, the 2nd best center every year is probably more valuable than the best defender.

Look, I'm a Leafs fan, so bias-creeps in. But, I would apply the same statement I just made about Matthews to Eichel (although, I think Matthews is slightly ahead and therefore has a better chance to be the 2nd best center behind McDavid).

I disagree, I don't believe he can be a top 2 centre consistently, i think he's caps as a 40/40 guy which is a amazing in his own right 40 goals?!, only 5 centres did that this year, could have been 6 if matthews didn't go down forsure. hell maybe he could of won the rocket this year with a bit of puck luck going his way. anyways i just think i'd go with dahlin, 3 years from now you can shove down my throat, i just like my guy is all

 

[Torontonian]

Well, for now I will take the player that has scored 40 goals in the NHL and has put up 60 point seasons in his first two NHL seasons. Although depending on how Dahlin can live up to his hype and how he does in first season that can change.

 

[nickdawg95]

was going to say something similar to 93Leafs - remove the position for ranking purposes and just look at it as players that you'd want to build a franchise around. Personally I end up quite a ways down the list before I get to a defenseman (Crosby, McDavid, Malkin, probably Eichel and Matthews, then a bunch of guys that are close to par with Doughty/Karlsson in Barkov, Tavares, Stamkoes, Scheifele, etc)

so to me, the potential to be the best defenseman in the world is a bit misleading as to how that guy compares to centers because the group of centers is more competitive

I disagree, we've seen Karlson pretty much single-handedly carry his team to the ECF, can't say the same for any of those guys you listed except Crosby/Malkin

 

[93LEAFS]

I disagree, I don't believe he can be a top 2 centre consistently, i think he's caps as a 40/40 guy which is a amazing in his own right 40 goals?!, only 5 centres did that this year, could have been 6 if matthews didn't go down forsure. hell maybe he could of won the rocket this year with a bit of puck luck going his way. anyways i just think i'd go with dahlin, 3 years from now you can shove down my throat, i just like my guy is all

I think his stats actually undervalue Matthews. He doesn't get elite powerplay time. If he ever starts to get that extra minute to a minute 30 most elite players get, his numbers will be higher than what he currently is. He was on pace for 83 points this year, and was a 40 goal scorer as a 19 year old. I think he pretty clearly has Sakic level upside. And, the only defender of the past 30 years I'd probably take over Sakic is Bourque, and that's still debatable.

 

[nickdawg95]

I think his stats actually undervalue Matthews. He doesn't get elite powerplay time. If he ever starts to get that extra minute to a minute 30 most elite players get, his numbers will be higher than what he currently is. He was on pace for 83 points this year, and was a 40 goal scorer as a 19 year old. I think he pretty clearly has Sakic level upside.

Real-talk he does remind me of Sakic, forsure

 

[Randy Randerson]

I disagree, we've seen Karlson pretty much single-handedly carry his team to the ECF, can't say the same for any of those guys you listed except Crosby/Malkin

we've also seen Karlsson's team miss the playoffs really consistently, don't think anyone is looking at Ottawa as the blueprint for a winner.

the point I was trying to make though is that Dahlin having the potential to be the best defenseman in the world only has a bearing on his comparison to Matthews/Eichel if the group of defensemen is equivalent to the group of centers, otherwise it's just moving goalposts

 

[nickdawg95]

we've also seen Karlsson's team miss the playoffs really consistently, don't think anyone is looking at Ottawa as the blueprint for a winner.

the point I was trying to make though is that Dahlin having the potential to be the best defenseman in the world only has a bearing on his comparison to Matthews/Eichel if the group of defensemen is equivalent to the group of centers, otherwise it's just moving goalposts

The thing is he's not equivalent to any group because we haven't seen anything like him before. he is interstellar

 

[Randy Randerson]

The thing is he's not equivalent to any group because we haven't seen anything like him before. he is interstellar

He's a marginally better prospect than Hedman was, definitely not the best prospect of all time if that's what you're insinuating

 

[nickdawg95]

He's a marginally better prospect than Hedman was, definitely not the best prospect of all time if that's what you're insinuating

I'm not saying all time, He's the best D-man prospect in a very long time though

 

[93LEAFS]

The thing is he's not equivalent to any group because we haven't seen anything like him before. he is interstellar

The thing is, to be consistently more valuable than a top 3 or so center, he basically needs to have an Orr like career. So, when you measure probabilities of where Matthews already is, and what he can become, to what Dahlin is and would need to become, I find it hard to side against the established player.

While scarcity and value are heavily linked, they aren't the same thing (not saying you are doing this). So, because of how rare a defender of Dahlin's quality is, there is a bit of an overestimation. While centers of Matthews quality might be more common (for example Tavares, Stamkos, Eichel, and MacKinnon being close to his level or on par entering their draft), than a defender who is arguably the best since Potvin, that scarcity alone doesn't make him better. Elite centers are such a rare commodity by themselves and impossible to acquire, you have to measure their on-ice impact. Historically, centers drive high-conversion rates and possession more than any other position. The only position that tends to be more valuable is goalie, but since goalies also tend to be more erratic and the drop-off from an elite one to an average one is much smaller than the drop-off between an elite center and an average center, has made an elite 1st line center arguably the most important franchise building block in the league.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'm not saying all time, He's the best D-man prospect in a very long time though

sure, but not by a big margin (Hedman, Jones) and there's been some defensemen turn out better than their draft day projections like Karlsson. It's not likely that he ends up in a tier above Karlsson when his career is over

 

[FrolikFan67]

not a fair comparison, one player has two years of experience now and established himself, the other is a prospect thats an unknown as of now. Id say as prospects coming into the draft, dahlin gets an ever so slight edge because a #1 star d has a slight edge on a #1 star c and i dont know if people knew matthews was going to be THIS good. as prospects, dahlin, as a known commodity, matthews. let dahlin get two years and revisit this to compare.

if the question is both are in this draft, who would i take? matthews. despite how good dahlin is D are still slightly more risky than forwards, with matthews being a center id take him due to slightly less risk and id rather be sure im hitting with the #1 pick.

 

[nickdawg95]

sure, but not by a big margin (Hedman, Jones) and there's been some defensemen turn out better than their draft day projections like Karlsson. It's not likely that he ends up in a tier above Karlsson when his career is over

Pre-draft it is a big margin. 100% dahlin goes before those two, those guys DON'T DO WHAT DAHLIN DOES.

 

[nickdawg95]

The thing is, to be consistently more valuable than a top 3 or so center, he basically needs to have an Orr like career. So, when you measure probabilities of where Matthews already is, and what he can become, to what Dahlin is and would need to become, I find it hard to side against the established player.

While scarcity and value are heavily linked, they aren't the same thing (not saying you are doing this). So, because of how rare a defender of Dahlin's quality is, there is a bit of an overestimation. While centers of Matthews quality might be more common (for example Tavares, Stamkos, Eichel, and MacKinnon being close to his level or on par entering their draft), than a defender who is arguably the best since Potvin, that scarcity alone doesn't make him better. Elite centers are such a rare commodity by themselves and impossible to acquire, you have to measure their on-ice impact. Historically, centers drive high-conversion rates and possession more than any other position. The only position that tends to be more valuable is goalie, but since goalies also tend to be more erratic and the drop-off from an elite one to an average one is much smaller than the drop-off between an elite center and an average center, has made an elite 1st line center arguably the most important franchise building block in the league.

i understand what you're saying I don't disagree with you at all, yes you should take the matthews, but you sometimes you gotta be a little Coo-coo and go with your gut.

Dahlin will finish his career with 1000 points.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Pre-draft it is a big margin. 100% dahlin goes before those two, those guys DON'T DO WHAT DAHLIN DOES.

it's not a big margin, Hedman is particularly comparable having played in the same leagues and very similar SHL production. I agree the Dahlin has a little more hype, and that he'd go before those guys in the same draft, but the gap would be smaller than it is between Dahlin and Svechnikov.

Dahlin is fancier than those guys, but he isn't the physical specimen that either was

 

[Maplebeasts]

You wanna know how you can tell Matthews and the Leafs other young players are bonafide stars in the making? Everyone else compares their elite young players or prospects to them. Gimme Matthews. Worst thing you end up with him is a 45-50 goal, 85 point center with a good two way game. Too much risk for Dahlin and a reward that might not even be that much better, if at all.

 

[Maplebeasts]

i understand what you're saying I don't disagree with you at all, yes you should take the matthews, but you sometimes you gotta be a little Coo-coo and go with your gut.

Dahlin will finish his career with 1000 points.

I highly doubt this. You think he's going to put up the equivalent of 20 50 point seasons as a defenceman in a low scoring era starting out on a pathetic Sabres team?

 

[nickdawg95]

it's not a big margin, Hedman is particularly comparable having played in the same leagues and very similar SHL production. I agree the Dahlin has a little more hype, and that he'd go before those guys in the same draft, but the gap would be smaller than it is between Dahlin and Svechnikov.

Dahlin is fancier than those guys, but he isn't the physical specimen that either was

please show me some clips of jones / hedman doing what dahlin does, i'll wait. also fancier is an understatement, show me anything close to this in a MENS league

 

[nobody]

Well looks like the population of bandwagon Sabres fans just skyrocketed. TWS and Ted Midowsky seem to be huge fans.

 

[Volica]

While I think it’s Matthews, this thread is pretty rich in it of itself.

Flashback two seasons ago, and Matthews was winning similar polls to these.

 

[Maplebeasts]

While I think it’s Matthews, this thread is pretty rich in it of itself.

Flashback two seasons ago, and Matthews was winning similar polls to these.

And it was equally stupid.

 

[nobody]

Other than a guy like Drew Doughty who seemed to excel right from the get go (keep in mind, he started day 1 with a defensive minded coach who never over exposed his D-men), no d-man has started off their career at the top level. Even the best of the best D-men right now had to go through their struggles and learning curves. Dahlin is going to be no different. He's going to struggle quite a bit in his first few seasons. Especially playing for the atrocity that is the Buffalo Sabres d-core. I hope these people who voted so confidently for him right now can back up their boy in two years time when he's being called a bust and being compared to the next hot shot prospect.