Confirmed with Link: Matthews new deal Pt 3

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Sure. But the Cap Hit is higher over the next 5 years.

Not by much, and year 5,6,7,8 this contract would be a steal due to cap increasing instead of him getting a new, much bigger contract in year 5. 8 years at $12.5m is much, much better then $11.6m/5.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

This analysis would make sense if it was an 8 year deal like the comparables you mention but the fact that you completely ignored the term makes this analysis useless.

It is still relevant. If Matthews signed an 8 year, he would be closer to McDavid than Eichel. Most expected him to be closer to McDavid in terms of Cap %.

 

[DarkKnight]

Matthews has repeatedly said he wants to be a Maple Leaf. Why is it interesting?

It doesnt fit the narrative that he wants to bolt as soon as he can though.

Because we couldn't get a longer deal, despite the player being open to it.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not by much, and year 5,6,7,8 this contract would be a steal due to cap increasing instead of him getting a new, much bigger contract in year 5. 8 years at $12.5m is much, much better then $11.6m/5.

But that's irrelevant because he'd be getting over 13M on a 8 year deal. Some even said it was OVER 14M.

Matthews has been the best goal scorer in the entire NHL since entering the league. Those are extremely rare.

 

[Warden of the North]

Because we couldn't get a longer deal, despite the player being open to it.

He was open to it if the number worked for him and his agents.

They didnt.

So, here we are..

In 5 years he'll probably sign another 5 year deal here.

 

[Advanced stats]

Because we couldn't get a longer deal, despite the player being open to it.

Because both parties were aware that the cap hit would have to be too high

 

[GoonieFace]

The majority of people in here are just a bunch of whiners. Enjoy the ride for the next 5 years, hopefully it pays off, if not, try again.

So much criticizing from a bunch of people who have no idea what they are talking about, they just like to pretend they know better.

 

[Nineteen67]

Not by much, and year 5,6,7,8 this contract would be a steal instead of him getting a new, much bigger contract in year 5. 8 years at $12.5m is much, much better then $11.6m/5.

When they signed Tavares they basically defined their window. Worrying about a the 7 th playoff year is a little premature, in my mind.
The Leafs have Matthews and Tavares for the next 6 playoffs. That’s a pretty good combo.

 

[SprDaVE]

The majority of people in here are just a bunch of whiners. Enjoy the ride for the next 5 years, hopefully it pays off, if not, try again.

So much criticizing from a bunch of people who have no idea what they are talking about, they just like to pretend they know better.

Only Leaf fans are worried about the playoffs 5 years from now.

Did you know that 5 seasons ago (2013) we traded for and signed Dave Bolland?

5 years is a lot of time in sports.

Enjoy the ride. Trades will happen. Players will move. The cap will grow. Crap happens. Relax a little.

 

[Nineteen67]

He was open to it if the number worked for him and his agents.

They didnt.

So, here we are..

In 5 years he'll probably sign another 5 year deal here.

A lot of water will go under the bridge between now and then.

 

[Nineteen67]

Only Leaf fans are worried about the playoffs 5 years from now.

Did you know that 5 seasons ago (2013) we traded and signed Dave Bolland?

5 years is a lot of time in sports.

Enjoy the ride. Trades will happen. Players will move. The cap will grow. Crap happens. Relax a little.

They may even draft a few impact players....

 

[Statsman1]

Initially, I was freaked out by how badly this signing was being taken by the members of this forum.

Then I watched the press conference and listened to a number of people in the industry say how this was a win on both sides. So who is right? If those in the industry think it's a good deal for both sides, who am I to say it isn't?

I have played enough hockey sims to know that being a real-life GM is beyond my scope, so it comes down to this, for me:

I want the Leafs to win a Cup ASAP. I want them to get the best players they can, and pay them what they have to pay them, and just win it. I can't worry about what the salary landscape appears to be 5 years from now, if I want them to win this year, or next year. That's not my job.

We are better with Matthews, Marner, Tavares et al here then we would be if they weren't here. Our chances of a Cup in the next 5 years are better than most other teams in the league with these guys, so we want them, and we have them (hopefully Marner too...), at whatever it took to keep them. A Cup win in the next 1-5 years over worrying about salary cap Issues in 2024? Yes, please. So much can happen between now and then...the sure thing is that these guys are here now, and for the next few years.

Just win the first one, boys. Nobody will care, at least for a few weeks, about 2023-2024 salary cap forecasts when you win that first one.

 

[leafs in five]

I hate that the salary cap has done this to this fanbase

lol nothing negative has even happened yet unless you count re-signing two players plus signing the best UFA to hit the market since the lockout as negatives (many apparently do!)

 

[thunder16]

Initially, I was freaked out by how badly this signing was being taken by the members of this forum.

Then I watched the press conference and listened to a number of people in the industry say how this was a win on both sides. So who is right? If those in the industry think it's a good deal for both sides, who am I to say it isn't?

I have played enough hockey sims to know that being a real-life GM is beyond my scope, so it comes down to this, for me:

I want the Leafs to win a Cup ASAP. I want them to get the best players they can, and pay them what they have to pay them, and just win it. I can't worry about what the salary landscape appears to be 5 years from now, if I want them to win this year, or next year. That's not my job.

We are better with Matthews, Marner, Tavares et al here then we would be if they weren't here. Our chances of a Cup in the next 5 years are better than most other teams in the league with these guys, so we want them, and we have them (hopefully Marner too...), at whatever it took to keep them. A Cup win in the next 1-5 years over worrying about salary cap Issues in 2024? Yes, please. So much can happen between now and then...the sure thing is that these guys are here now, and for the next few years.

Just win the first one, boys. Nobody will care, at least for a few weeks, about 2023-2024 salary cap forecasts when you win that first one.

And to think 2-3 years ago a nothing D-man Josh Gorges wanted nothing to do with the Leafs. how times have changed.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Only Leaf fans are worried about the playoffs 5 years from now.

Did you know that 5 seasons ago (2013) we traded for and signed Dave Bolland?

5 years is a lot of time in sports.

Enjoy the ride. Trades will happen. Players will move. The cap will grow. Crap happens. Relax a little.

Came here to say this. 5 years is along time, people forget that.

And look in the bright side: we now won’t have to listen to the pundits and haters go on about Matthews’ holding out this offseason, and offer sheets. Remember when offer sheeting Matthews was the next big thing?

Take the good with the bad.

 

[Bloomberg]

We'll be worse next year than this year. Year 2 of Matthews's might to tough too. We need to sign/replace Muzzin and sign Dermott to extension, but we do have Marleau's contract out. Year 3, I see Woll or Scott being our starter, so Anderson's 5m contract will be out. That might be our best chance at winning. Year 4 the team will get worse. Year 5 is okay. Year 6 everything re-starts. We are still missing RHD and a heavy forward, let's hope we draft well and Woll or Scott pan out.

The appeal of 8 year deals is that the re-start is pushed back 3 years. I think Edmonton will be really good in years 6-8 of McDavid's contract.

Year 1 - Need to sign: Gardiner, Kapanen, Johnsson
Year 2 - Need to sign: Muzzin, Brown, Dermott
-Key contract out: Marleau (6.25m)
Year 3 - Need to sign: Anderson, Hyman
Year 4 - Need to sign: Rielly, Kadri
-Contract out: Kessel (1.2m)
Year 5 - N/A
Year 6 - Need to sign: Matthews, Nylander

 

[leafs in five]

Our chances of a Cup in the next 5 years are better than most other teams in the league with these guys, so we want them, and we have them (hopefully Marner too...), at whatever it took to keep them. A Cup win in the next 1-5 years over worrying about salary cap Issues in 2024? Yes, please. So much can happen between now and then...the sure thing is that these guys are here now, and for the next few years.

Just win the first one, boys. Nobody will care, at least for a few weeks, about 2023-2024 salary cap forecasts when you win that first one.

Leafs cup window aligns nicely with the twilight years of western capitalist hegemony and the illusions as well as the realities of relative stability security and prosperity that defined many north american/western experiences of that epoch. acceptance of the grave reality that awaits your children will deliver at least a rosier view of Dubas's spendthrift ways.

 

[Advanced stats]

We'll be worse next year than this year. Year 2 of Matthews's might to tough too. We need to sign/replace Muzzin and sign Dermott to extension, but we do have Marleau's contract out. Year 3, I see Woll or Scott being our starter, so Anderson's 5m contract will be out. That might be our best chance at winning. Year 4 the team will get worse. Year 5 is okay. Year 6 everything re-starts. We are still missing RHD and a heavy forward, let's hope we draft well and Woll or Scott pan out.

The appeal of 8 year deals is that the re-start is pushed back 3 years. I think Edmonton will be really good in years 6-8 of McDavid's contract.

Year 1 - Need to sign: Gardiner, Kapanen, Johnsson
Year 2 - Need to sign: Muzzin, Brown, Dermott
-Key contract out: Marleau (6.25m)
Year 3 - Need to sign: Anderson, Hyman
Year 4 - Need to sign: Rielly, Kadri
-Contract out: Kessel (1.2m)
Year 5 - N/A
Year 6 - Need to sign: Matthews, Nylander

Count on huge cap increases some of those years from new TV deal(s) and Seattle expansion profits

 

[SprDaVE]

Mirtle: On Kyle Dubas, Auston Matthews and the aftermath of...

Dubas is taking some heat from Toronto fans for Matthews’ new contract, especially after the way the William Nylander situation played out. Neither took a discount, that’s for sure. But if you drew up a big chart of cap hits and expected contributions for next season, with the bad contracts at the top and the good ones at the bottom, neither player would be on the leaderboard.

The crappiest contracts in the NHL right now are almost exclusively dedicated to older players. Ryan Kesler. Dion Phaneuf. Karl Alzner. James Neal. Milan Lucic. David Backes. Ryan Callahan. Brent Seabrook. Loui Eriksson. Andrew Ladd. And a pile I’m likely forgetting. (Feel free to add them in the comments.)

Those $5-7-million black holes are tough to work around in a hard-cap system. Especially for teams that have more than one anchor onboard.

Matthews, who has been averaging a 44-goal pace his whole career to this point and is still getting better, isn’t that. And he won’t ever be that on the term of this deal, which takes him all the way to the ripe old age of 26.

He’ll be worth the money.

 

[The Podium]

If we estimate an 83 mill cap hit then this deal comes in around 14% of total cap. 85 mill would be around 13%.

McDavid = 16.67 (8 years)
Ovi = 16.82 (13 years)
Malkin = 15.34
Crosby = 17.3
Stamkos = 11.66
Toews = 11.09
Kane = 11.09

Not a steal by any means, but I am assuming that these were the comparables used by both camps. Matthews should have been closer to the Stamkos, Toews and Kane group which would have put him somewhere around 9.5-10 x 5 years.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Any idea on what he wanted over 8 years?

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Initially, I was freaked out by how badly this signing was being taken by the members of this forum.

Then I watched the press conference and listened to a number of people in the industry say how this was a win on both sides. So who is right? If those in the industry think it's a good deal for both sides, who am I to say it isn't?

I have played enough hockey sims to know that being a real-life GM is beyond my scope, so it comes down to this, for me:

I want the Leafs to win a Cup ASAP. I want them to get the best players they can, and pay them what they have to pay them, and just win it. I can't worry about what the salary landscape appears to be 5 years from now, if I want them to win this year, or next year. That's not my job.

We are better with Matthews, Marner, Tavares et al here then we would be if they weren't here. Our chances of a Cup in the next 5 years are better than most other teams in the league with these guys, so we want them, and we have them (hopefully Marner too...), at whatever it took to keep them. A Cup win in the next 1-5 years over worrying about salary cap Issues in 2024? Yes, please. So much can happen between now and then...the sure thing is that these guys are here now, and for the next few years.

Just win the first one, boys. Nobody will care, at least for a few weeks, about 2023-2024 salary cap forecasts when you win that first one.

If we one cup just one i'll die happy and just watch golf the rest of my days. I dont mind this deal as I know for certain there is a kid out west who despertly wanted our team to win the lottery. Hes stuck out there and he wants out. He will have one team higher than all others on his list. Could be anytime between now and five years from now. He Will NOT finish his contract out west

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Mirtle: On Kyle Dubas, Auston Matthews and the aftermath of...

I'm a habs fan but I've consistently said that even if the leafs are in cap trouble next season the players they have signed(minus Marleau and his NMC) have value. Kadri would fetch a lot for example.

It's a much better problem to have than my habs with Alzner for example.

 

[SprDaVE]

I'm a habs fan but I've consistently said that even if the leafs are in cap trouble next season the players they have signed(minus Marleau and his NMC) have value. Kadri would fetch a lot for example.

It's a much better problem to have than my habs with Alzner for example.

We're basically spoiled compared to many many many other teams.

 

[Walshy7]

Because we couldn't get a longer deal, despite the player being open to it.

open to it for more money? what is so hard to understand here? Matthews wanted ~$14M for 8 years that means we are gaining $3.3M each season for the 5 seasons and then we resign him. Why be so insecure about him bolting?