mikeyp24
Registered User
- Jun 28, 2014
- 5,959
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The team is clearly the worst team in the league sell him to keep our #1 pick next year and sell off Jones and PLD while we are at it...
I'd rather lose all than only sign Dzingel tbhI don't think that this assessment is very far off to be entirely honest. As of the trade deadline with Bread and Bob- We were a fringe playoff team. We are still a fringe playoff team afterwards (granted with upgrades on paper). I think if you subtract Duchene, Bread, Dzingel, Bob (remember, how good he was in the prior 2 years and his career when healthy)- I think there could be some struggles next year. People say watch us not sign any of them- I think if we can't resign any of those- We could be in for some struggles. I think we can at least sign Dzingel.
Keep in mind- Bread is a 80 point a year player, a line driver, make plays that not many people can. Losing him for nothing in the off-season is going to hurt. Cam Atkinson will still be good, but I don't think we'll see Cam get the same point totals without him.
I think we could see similar struggles in net next year as well. I don't think Korpisalo is our answer as a #1 goalie. Should he play more with Bobrovsky's struggles- Yes, but I don't think he's that much of a better goalie. Do we sign a UFA? Just rely on Merzlikins to be the answer? Maybe, I'm being a pessimist- But, I don't know whether to fully count on Merzlikins as a reliable NHL goalie- when he has no experience in the AHL/NHL. He'll be 25, but I'm cautious with goalie voodoo.
Is Texier/Foudy/Bemstrom ready to step into the NHL next year or do they need more seasoning? None have played a game in the AHL.
I don't know if we are necessarily a bottom 5 NHL team- But, I could see us being a non-playoff team. A team that finishes like 6-12 range or so. It's not the greatest of picks- But, with the NHL draft lottery, maybe you could get lucky.
Not that, I'm saying we should prepare for a tank job- Not sign any UFA's, not sign Duchene, rely on Korpi/Merzlikins- But, i think if we went down that route, we could certainly suck.
Sad to say but I am going to say no. Duchene is good, but not good enough to overpay for and most likely have until he is 36. I would rather him than Dzingel though....
The team is clearly the worst team in the league sell him to keep our #1 pick next year and sell off Jones and PLD while we are at it...
Nylander - Dubois - Atkinson
Nyquist - Duchene - Bjorkstrand
Foligno - Jenner - Anderson
Robinson - Nash - Sedlak
Hannikainen
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Werenski traded for Nylander, Nyquist signed (4 yrs x $6m), Duchene signed ($8m x 8 years), Dubi bought out, Wennberg given away. That leaves millions to spare too in case they need to upgrade the goalie in-season.
Sorry to dash your dreams but I don't think this lineup is getting a top 5 pick. It looks a lot stronger than what we had this year. It looks like the strongest roster in the division.
That lineup is like a bootleg version of this seasons lineup. Nylander (poorly) playing the role of Panarin, Nyquist playing the role of Dzingel, and an incredibly weak defense and goaltender group. That lineup is competing with Jersey for bottom of the Metro, and a top 5 pick.
That’s a goalie duo for the draft lotteryNylander - Dubois - Atkinson
Nyquist - Duchene - Bjorkstrand
Foligno - Jenner - Anderson
Robinson - Nash - Sedlak
Hannikainen
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Werenski traded for Nylander, Nyquist signed (4 yrs x $6m), Duchene signed ($8m x 8 years), Dubi bought out, Wennberg given away. That leaves millions to spare too in case they need to upgrade the goalie in-season.
Sorry to dash your dreams but I don't think this lineup is getting a top 5 pick. It looks a lot stronger than what we had this year. It looks like the strongest roster in the division.
That’s a goalie duo for the draft lottery
I stopped reading at "incredibly weak defense". If that's your read on
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
I really don't know where to start. I see perhaps the best top pair in the division, and though it's unclear which pair is going to emerge behind them, there's not a single weak D out of the 6.
Regarding "bootleg version of this seasons lineup", well we might have a disagreement on just how good this season's lineup is. I think there is a serious coaching / confidence / chemistry issue but the lineup is contender level. 6 20 goal scorers, zero holes. For next year, there's much you can't tell just from the lineup strength, chemistry matters. But we don't know a damned thing about next year's chemistry or even who is coaching the team. You have to make projections based on the strength of the lineup, and it's objectively a good lineup. You can add up the goals if you don't believe me.
That defense is Seth Jones, fragile Murray, and a bunch of meh. Who knows how Gavrikov will be. At best, that defense is above average, and thats incredibly boosted by Jones and Murray. Any time missed by either top two guy drops this defensive core to bottom tier.
We certainly do have a disagreement on how good the roster is. Dubois and Atkinson without Panarin revert to a 30-40 point center, and around 25 goal winger. That doesn't even mention the impact of the other lines. That's not bad, mind you, but it's a huge step back from what they produced with Panarin.
Nylander on a bad offensive team isn't much better, if at all better, than Atkinson. While he'd be a nice addition to the top 6, he's not tipping the scales anything like Panarin does. Especially at the cost of Werenski, who isn't playing well right now, to hurt our back end. I understand getting Nylander isn't to replace Panarin, but you're at least trying to get close to his production, and Nylander would only be a small chip into that.
On paper, I agree, this seasons roster is good. The play on the ice, is not. And it hasn't been good for a large portion of the year. It's just now catching up to them. But they've been really really bad since January, and their inevitable playoff miss is deserved.
If you think this season's roster is good on paper, well it's not going to be that different next year. Losing one player doesn't move a team down that many spots (I say losing one, because Bob hasn't been very good this year)/ Bad chemistry or coaching can ruin what's on paper, but we really have no idea what any of that stuff is going to be like. What's on paper is all that we can see.
Also going for the most negative possible projection on every player is just not credible. Dubois is a very talented player who has some unique skills - with the way he uses his shoulders to protect the puck, and the way he can walk defenders, he's going to be more than a 30-40 pt guy next year. He's not consistent in any of that, but that's a thing young players learn. Atkinson had 35 the year before Panarin arrived and you're sure he's a 25 goal winger without Panarin?
Nylander isn't finishing plays this year but he has all the tools to get the puck from one end to the other and make good plays for his linemates. I don't even know if the value is even on that deal, but the Jackets need a guy like that. Werenski is going to be better and better but he's been the biggest liability for the Jackets, so I don't think this is a downgrade from what we currently have.
Nutivaara started the year playing like a #2/#3 and he's been more like a #5 lately. Savard is a #4. Gavrikov looks like a 3/4. Harrington up until this week was a very consistent guy, looked like a #4/#5. For bottom four guys, that's not "incredibly weak", not even compared to plenty of top teams. I'm wondering how many other teams you watch. Kempny was a healthy scratch who immediately stepped in as the #4 D on the Caps, he plays on the level of Kukan (I like both guys). Their bottom pair was awful last Spring. So was the Pens the year before that (and now, holy crap). Dan Girardi is like Adam Mcquaid, Have you seen this Zaitsev guy? How about Ozhiganov?
The roster IS going to be a lot different though. McQuaid, Duchene (In all likelihood), Dzingel (best chance to stay but do we even want?), Panarin, and Bobrovsky are all out the door. That's two top liners, an elite starting goalie, a top 6/9 forward, and depth out the door. You even bring up Dubinsky being bought out in your previous post. That's 5 usual lineup regulars and McQuaid out the door. Mostly in the top 6. That's a lot of change over (And that's just what we KNOW/THINK is going to happen. There obviously could be/will be other signings/trades).
Dubois hasn't looked good at any period he's been away from Panarin, yes small sample size, but its what we have to go on. I do think he's going to be a very good player, but I do think he regresses big time next year. Atkinson going from a career high of 40+ with Panarin this year back to his previous career averages (His 35 year was a previous career high on a red hot hockey team) is fair. Plus, I said around 25 goals, so he could still get to 30 or close to it. I don't think thats looking at worst case scenario.
Have grown very "meh" on Nutivaara this year. He was supposed to take a step forward, and hasn't. You can make the same argument for Werenski too. Savard is fine, but not special. Gavrikov is an unknown. I agree with you that Harrington has been solid aside from the past week, but Kukan has been a mess.
That’s a goalie duo for the draft lottery
I think you try hard to keep him also. I believe though he needs to be a Robin to a Batman and might be incapable of being Batman himself. Go spend and get Batman also...
Odd analogy as I'm not really a Batman fan...
@major major , @CBJWennberg10
A lot of good discussion points in your posts. The most puzzling to me involves Nuti. Frankly he often looked liked a solid #3 last year and very early this year. He flashed good offensive skills, passing and puck-carrying, and showed competence on defense. He's regressed on both areas. "What happened?" I'm left to ask.
I'm a big Nuti fan so I want to see him find his game again.Player development is not a straight upward line, nor is player performance a plateau. It's not very satisfying, but the answer is probably 'he's just not playing as well right now.'
I'm a big Nuti fan so I want to see him find his game again.
@major major , @CBJWennberg10
A lot of good discussion points in your posts. The most puzzling to me involves Nuti. Frankly he often looked liked a solid #3 last year and very early this year. He flashed good offensive skills, passing and puck-carrying, and showed competence on defense. He's regressed on both areas. "What happened?" I'm left to ask.