The team is clearly the worst team in the league sell him to keep our #1 pick next year and sell off Jones and PLD while we are at it...
Matt Duchene - Should He Stay or Should He Go?
- Thread starter EspenK
- Start date
- Status
Nylander - Dubois - Atkinson
Nyquist - Duchene - Bjorkstrand
Foligno - Jenner - Anderson
Robinson - Nash - Sedlak
Hannikainen
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Werenski traded for Nylander, Nyquist signed (4 yrs x $6m), Duchene signed ($8m x 8 years), Dubi bought out, Wennberg given away. That leaves millions to spare too in case they need to upgrade the goalie in-season.
Sorry to dash your dreams but I don't think this lineup is getting a top 5 pick. It looks a lot stronger than what we had this year. It looks like the strongest roster in the division.
Nyquist - Duchene - Bjorkstrand
Foligno - Jenner - Anderson
Robinson - Nash - Sedlak
Hannikainen
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Werenski traded for Nylander, Nyquist signed (4 yrs x $6m), Duchene signed ($8m x 8 years), Dubi bought out, Wennberg given away. That leaves millions to spare too in case they need to upgrade the goalie in-season.
Sorry to dash your dreams but I don't think this lineup is getting a top 5 pick. It looks a lot stronger than what we had this year. It looks like the strongest roster in the division.
Cowumbus
Registered User
Sad to say but I am going to say no. Duchene is good, but not good enough to overpay for and most likely have until he is 36. I would rather him than Dzingel though....
Cowumbus
Registered User
I'd be curious to think through alternatives to spending some of our cap on Duchene. Not just for next year, but long run.
Is our homegrown talent going to use up all $80-90m? No. Are there going to be UFAs available that are not "overpay"s? I tend to think that's what the UFA market is (unless you're in a destination market) - a market where you overpay so that you can fill a need.
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
- Jun 13, 2009
- 42,343
- 24,268
Yes, because all rebuilding teams sell off cost controlled assets.
(Yes, I know you're being sarcastic about trading those two. But its a dumb suggestion even for a rebuilding team.)
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
- Jun 13, 2009
- 42,343
- 24,268
That lineup is like a bootleg version of this seasons lineup. Nylander (poorly) playing the role of Panarin, Nyquist playing the role of Dzingel, and an incredibly weak defense and goaltender group. That lineup is competing with Jersey for bottom of the Metro, and a top 5 pick.
Old Guy
Just waitin' on my medication.
- Aug 30, 2015
- 1,847
- 1,645
Great discussion but, TL/DR.
To those who say 4 games is too small a sample size, I say okay to you. But the Old Guy is willing to look at his 9 years in the league to form his opinion.
Great on face-off's. That will remain regardless of line mates or coaches.
Great speed. That will remain regardless of line mates or coaches.
After Joey went, would anybody be willing to give 2-1st round picks to get a #1 center signed for term? I would have. I still would.
If he will sign in Columbus, I say sign him. It will hurt if this team doesn't make the cut, but I can live with what Jarmo has done. Press on!
To those who say 4 games is too small a sample size, I say okay to you. But the Old Guy is willing to look at his 9 years in the league to form his opinion.
Great on face-off's. That will remain regardless of line mates or coaches.
Great speed. That will remain regardless of line mates or coaches.
After Joey went, would anybody be willing to give 2-1st round picks to get a #1 center signed for term? I would have. I still would.
If he will sign in Columbus, I say sign him. It will hurt if this team doesn't make the cut, but I can live with what Jarmo has done. Press on!
I stopped reading at "incredibly weak defense". If that's your read on
Murray - Jones
Gavrikov - Nutivaara
Harrington - Savard
Kukan
I really don't know where to start. I see perhaps the best top pair in the division, and though it's unclear which pair is going to emerge behind them, there's not a single weak D out of the 6.
Regarding "bootleg version of this seasons lineup", well we might have a disagreement on just how good this season's lineup is. I think there is a serious coaching / confidence / chemistry issue but the lineup is contender level. 6 20 goal scorers, zero holes. For next year, there's much you can't tell just from the lineup strength, chemistry matters. But we don't know a damned thing about next year's chemistry or even who is coaching the team. You have to make projections based on the strength of the lineup, and it's objectively a good lineup. You can add up the goals if you don't believe me.
Maybe so. I'm not a goalie scout, I'm just going off reports that he's already NHL starter quality. But if that's not accurate then the team can put a veteran in there. There was about $5m left when I counted up the cap. In any case, the point is that the Jackets could be a very good team next year, and we shouldn't expect them to be one of the 5 worst teams.
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
- Jun 13, 2009
- 42,343
- 24,268
That defense is Seth Jones, fragile Murray, and a bunch of meh. Who knows how Gavrikov will be. At best, that defense is above average, and thats incredibly boosted by Jones and Murray. Any time missed by either top two guy drops this defensive core to bottom tier.
We certainly do have a disagreement on how good the roster is. Dubois and Atkinson without Panarin revert to a 30-40 point center, and around 25 goal winger. That doesn't even mention the impact of the other lines. That's not bad, mind you, but it's a huge step back from what they produced with Panarin.
Nylander on a bad offensive team isn't much better, if at all better, than Atkinson. While he'd be a nice addition to the top 6, he's not tipping the scales anything like Panarin does. Especially at the cost of Werenski, who isn't playing well right now, to hurt our back end. I understand getting Nylander isn't to replace Panarin, but you're at least trying to get close to his production, and Nylander would only be a small chip into that.
On paper, I agree, this seasons roster is good. The play on the ice, is not. And it hasn't been good for a large portion of the year. It's just now catching up to them. But they've been really really bad since January, and their inevitable playoff miss is deserved.
If you think this season's roster is good on paper, well it's not going to be that different next year. Losing one player doesn't move a team down that many spots (I say losing one, because Bob hasn't been very good this year)/ Bad chemistry or coaching can ruin what's on paper, but we really have no idea what any of that stuff is going to be like. What's on paper is all that we can see.
Also going for the most negative possible projection on every player is just not credible. Dubois is a very talented player who has some unique skills - with the way he uses his shoulders to protect the puck, and the way he can walk defenders, he's going to be more than a 30-40 pt guy next year. He's not consistent in any of that, but that's a thing young players learn. Atkinson had 35 the year before Panarin arrived and you're sure he's a 25 goal winger without Panarin?
Nylander isn't finishing plays this year but he has all the tools to get the puck from one end to the other and make good plays for his linemates. I don't even know if the value is even on that deal, but the Jackets need a guy like that. Werenski is going to be better and better but he's been the biggest liability for the Jackets, so I don't think this is a downgrade from what we currently have.
Nutivaara started the year playing like a #2/#3 and he's been more like a #5 lately. Savard is a #4. Gavrikov looks like a 3/4. Harrington up until this week was a very consistent guy, looked like a #4/#5. For bottom four guys, that's not "incredibly weak", not even compared to plenty of top teams. I'm wondering how many other teams you watch. Kempny was a healthy scratch who immediately stepped in as the #4 D on the Caps, he plays on the level of Kukan (I like both guys). Their bottom pair was awful last Spring. So was the Pens the year before that (and now, holy crap). Dan Girardi is like Adam Mcquaid, Have you seen this Zaitsev guy? How about Ozhiganov?
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
- Jun 13, 2009
- 42,343
- 24,268
The roster IS going to be a lot different though. McQuaid, Duchene (In all likelihood), Dzingel (best chance to stay but do we even want?), Panarin, and Bobrovsky are all out the door. That's two top liners, an elite starting goalie, a top 6/9 forward, and depth out the door. You even bring up Dubinsky being bought out in your previous post. That's 5 usual lineup regulars and McQuaid out the door. Mostly in the top 6. That's a lot of change over (And that's just what we KNOW/THINK is going to happen. There obviously could be/will be other signings/trades).
Dubois hasn't looked good at any period he's been away from Panarin, yes small sample size, but its what we have to go on. I do think he's going to be a very good player, but I do think he regresses big time next year. Atkinson going from a career high of 40+ with Panarin this year back to his previous career averages (His 35 year was a previous career high on a red hot hockey team) is fair. Plus, I said around 25 goals, so he could still get to 30 or close to it. I don't think thats looking at worst case scenario.
Have grown very "meh" on Nutivaara this year. He was supposed to take a step forward, and hasn't. You can make the same argument for Werenski too. Savard is fine, but not special. Gavrikov is an unknown. I agree with you that Harrington has been solid aside from the past week, but Kukan has been a mess.
1. Of course there are "unknowns", I'm not saying I know exactly where that roster I sketched would finish, I'm saying you don't know that they'll be bottom 5. There aren't a lot of teams going into next year with established rock solid players in every roster spot, you're going to have some guesswork. It doesn't make the Jackets a bottom-5 team, it makes them normal.
2. I'm confused as to which roster, pre deadline or post deadline, we are comparing next year to. I was thinking in terms of pre deadline, where it's really just Panarin leaving that hurts. Losing Dubinsky would be a huge upgrade. (In the post-dl scenario, Mcquaid and Dzingel look bad too, we'd be better off without them).
3. This discussion started with the question of whether we should sign Duchene to an extension, and you said no because you thought the team was going to be bottom 5 bad so they should keep the pick and let him go. I penciled him in that lineup to show that with Duchene, and some other reasonable efforts to balance the roster, it wouldn't be a bottom 5 team. If you want to tell me that we couldn't sign him anyways, fine. But this is about whether we want to.
4. Dubois hasn't looked good plenty of times (he's 20) but he's put up points without Panarin. Two in two games last week. And funny enough Panarin produces at a much higher rate with him than without him.
5. Nutivaara, it isn't that he didn't take a step forward, it's that he took a step backward. Last season and the first half of this season he was middle-pair quality.
6. The words you use to describe your own team's #3-#7 D are positively genteel compared to the words reserved for most team's bottom D.
KJ Dangler
Registered User
I don’t see anyway that you let Duchene go . Overpay if you must . Thing is , most are making judgements on Duchene , and our whole team for that matter , In Torts system, which I would argue is holding nearly every position group back badly .
As Major said above . On paper , this teams strength is the defensive unit they have, and there is no reason that it’s not a top 3 unit , top to bottom in the league . How many teams would love to have a top 4 of Jones, Murray, Werenski, Nutivaara , and soon to be here Garikov ? Yes , Torts has badly squandered this group, but he’s not going to be here next year , barring some sort of miracle, and we actually get out of the first round of the playoffs . I’ve been an advocate of moving Werenski , because the return would be huge , and in all honesty , coverage in our defensive zone would become much better , with a steady stay at home defenseman . Having said all that . This group could be elite , if we have a competent coach that plays them as actual defenseman , rather than the irresponsible safe is death , rover scheme . This ripples thru the rest of the team . Forwards are asked to essentially play a left wing lock , where they have to focus equally on reading the play, and ready to skate backwards to be the last line of defense . You don’t think that affects our forwards production? I won’t go on a huge rant , but yes , pay Duchene his money m get a new coaching staff , and this team is competing for a cup
As Major said above . On paper , this teams strength is the defensive unit they have, and there is no reason that it’s not a top 3 unit , top to bottom in the league . How many teams would love to have a top 4 of Jones, Murray, Werenski, Nutivaara , and soon to be here Garikov ? Yes , Torts has badly squandered this group, but he’s not going to be here next year , barring some sort of miracle, and we actually get out of the first round of the playoffs . I’ve been an advocate of moving Werenski , because the return would be huge , and in all honesty , coverage in our defensive zone would become much better , with a steady stay at home defenseman . Having said all that . This group could be elite , if we have a competent coach that plays them as actual defenseman , rather than the irresponsible safe is death , rover scheme . This ripples thru the rest of the team . Forwards are asked to essentially play a left wing lock , where they have to focus equally on reading the play, and ready to skate backwards to be the last line of defense . You don’t think that affects our forwards production? I won’t go on a huge rant , but yes , pay Duchene his money m get a new coaching staff , and this team is competing for a cup
Ice9
Registered User
I think you try hard to keep him also. I believe though he needs to be a Robin to a Batman and might be incapable of being Batman himself. Go spend and get Batman also...
Odd analogy as I'm not really a Batman fan...
Odd analogy as I'm not really a Batman fan...
Good analogy. I think in this case, you mean be a 1B to a 1A center, which we have in Dubois. If Dutchy walks, who's our #2? Jenner at 2C is not sustainable. Texier/Foudy may be that someday, but that may not be for several years.
MoeBartoli
Checkers-to-Jackets
- Jan 12, 2011
- 14,070
- 10,282
@major major , @CBJWennberg10
A lot of good discussion points in your posts. The most puzzling to me involves Nuti. Frankly he often looked liked a solid #3 last year and very early this year. He flashed good offensive skills, passing and puck-carrying, and showed competence on defense. He's regressed on both areas. "What happened?" I'm left to ask.
A lot of good discussion points in your posts. The most puzzling to me involves Nuti. Frankly he often looked liked a solid #3 last year and very early this year. He flashed good offensive skills, passing and puck-carrying, and showed competence on defense. He's regressed on both areas. "What happened?" I'm left to ask.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Player development is not a straight upward line, nor is player performance a plateau. It's not very satisfying, but the answer is probably 'he's just not playing as well right now.'
MoeBartoli
Checkers-to-Jackets
- Jan 12, 2011
- 14,070
- 10,282
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
I gotta say, I think we're being too quick to judge the newcomers. This infusion of new players has created a CHEMISTRY problem, not a talent problem. When players don't know for sure where their teammates are going to be on the ice, they get tentative.
Is McQuaid better than Kukan? Probably yes. Kukan knows the system, McQuaid doesn't. When players don't know where they're supposed to be, they get tentative.
We wouldn't be the first team to experience this from trade deadline acquisitions. The question is, can chemistry be forged quickly enough? (given the tight race we are in). If we can get into the playoffs and avoid Tampa, it was a risk that can generate rewards. If we can't, we just screwed ourselves because we had a roster good enough to make the playoffs and have another first round exit.
Is McQuaid better than Kukan? Probably yes. Kukan knows the system, McQuaid doesn't. When players don't know where they're supposed to be, they get tentative.
We wouldn't be the first team to experience this from trade deadline acquisitions. The question is, can chemistry be forged quickly enough? (given the tight race we are in). If we can get into the playoffs and avoid Tampa, it was a risk that can generate rewards. If we can't, we just screwed ourselves because we had a roster good enough to make the playoffs and have another first round exit.
I think in general you see a lot more inconsistency with younger players because they're still figuring out what works and doesn't work for their bodies and brains. Sometimes it works and they don't know why, things change, maybe he got dinged up and didn't know how to react to it.
- Status
Ad
Latest posts
-
-
Series Talk: ECQF: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders (CAR Leads 3-1)- Latest: The Crypto Guy
-
GDT: ECQF Game 4: Boston Bruins vs Toronto Leafs:, | 8pm, | SN- Latest: ShippinUpToBoston
Upcoming events
-
Game 4 Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs - Boston leads series 2-1Wagers: 11Staked: $29,211.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Series Winner Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs - Boston leads series 2-1Wagers: 6Staked: $7,365.00Event closes
- Updated:
-
-
-