Matt Duchene - Should He Stay or Should He Go?

[EspenK]

Although his time here may be brief, I thought the least we could do is give him his own thread.

Stay: Who else is going to play C next year on the top 2 lines except PLD? Oh, wait Jenner is our 2nd line C.

Go: Are you kidding? In 4 games he only has a goal & 2 assists, the team sucks since he's been here and he's going to want a boatload to stay. Plus the Jackets will get their 1st back for next year and Foudy or Texier can fill the 2C spot for years to come at a much lower cost.

Waddya think?

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[213 Sentinel]

It really depends on what contribution he makes while he's here. I don't think four games is enough to make that determination.

 

[Finner]

If he cant stand up like a starplayer whats expected then go. Mentally hard test play here at this time

 

[JacketsDavid]

Depends on who the coach is. If the system is dump and chase then he won't stay (and rightfully so).
But if a coaching change occurs and we offer him a big contract then he could stay. Starting a family, so Columbus is attractive to folks in tha situation.
Personally I wouldn't want to pay him 8 years at $8-10M but to each their own.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Ah, yes. Today's "FIRE" thread.

 

[cslebn]

I felt like the stay option sounded like a go reason.

 

[Monk]

Although his time here may be brief, I thought the least we could do is give him his own thread.

Stay: Who else is going to play C next year on the top 2 lines except PLD? Oh, wait Jenner is our 2nd line C.

Go: Are you kidding? In 4 games he only has a goal & 2 assists, the team sucks since he's been here and he's going to want a boatload to stay. Plus the Jackets will get their 1st back for next year and Foudy or Texier can fill the 2C spot for years to come at a much lower cost.

Waddya think?

Still too early to say, but also, 3 points in 4 games on a new team isn't that concerning to me.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Love the player but he should go. Next season is going to likely be a tire fire, and he's not worth losing a potential top 5 pick for.

In the extremely unlikely event we can keep Panarin, you keep Duchene too. But unless you have another star to go along with Duchene, you let him walk to preserve your top 5 pick next season.

 

[Monk]

Love the player but he should go. Next season is going to likely be a tire fire, and he's not worth losing a potential top 5 pick for.

In the extremely unlikely event we can keep Panarin, you keep Duchene too. But unless you have another star to go along with Duchene, you let him walk to preserve your top 5 pick next season.

Does Cam Atkinson not count?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Does Cam Atkinson not count?

Complimentary piece. Good goal scorer, and sound defensively. First line player, not a star. I wouldn't make that risk.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

It’s actually been 3 in 6 games for him, not 4.

I still think, at the moment, he should stay. But I think we’re also getting a bit ahead of ourselves with some of these threads and should calm down a little...

 

[Monk]

Complimentary piece. Good goal scorer, and sound defensively. First line player, not a star. I wouldn't make that risk.

Gotcha. I can't say I entirely agree, but I can understand where you're coming from. I think the chances CBJ makes the playoffs next year, almost regardless of what happens with the UFAs, are greater than being so bad they end up with a top 5 pick. But we're both being realistic, so there's that

 

[Monk]

It’s actually been 3 in 6 games for him, not 4.

I still think, at the moment, he should stay. But I think we’re also getting a bit ahead of ourselves with some of these threads and should calm down a little...

So in that span he has only 1 goal fewer than Wennberg's entire season total, plus 60% on faceoffs? Hard to believe the CBJ have actually lost any games at all after both adding Duchene and "adding by subtraction" by sitting Wennberg.

 

[GoJackets1]

If we hire a coach that implements a modern offensive system, Duchene and the team as a whole would thrive. Imagine if we had Barry Trotz or Gerard Gallant with this roster. There would be little to no doubt that this team could go deep. It's a shame that in all likelihood we'll never get to see Artemi play in such a system for the CBJ.

I'd try to keep Duchene regardless because who else are we going to use all that cap space on? I know our young guys will need raises in a couple of years, but I don't want to be a cap floor team.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

If he's willing to sign you keep him

 

[majormajor]

The swings back and forth on this board are nauseating. Settle down people. The team went through one horrific game against the Oilers, and then one game where they objectively played well against the Jets (eventually, after starting with low confidence), and now you want to run this team through the wood-chipper?

Duchene is not a savior. He is a solid 1b center. That's a piece the Jackets need. I've argued consistently that he's not worth 1a center money ($9m+ per), but the team is also going to be better this year and next if he's here. He's worth more than $7m per to the Jackets, maybe even $8m per. The decision on whether he stays or goes should be based on those financial parameters, and on long term projections. Is Foudy or Texier going to be that good? Is it worth waiting? Are there good stopgap options at that position?

The decision should not be be based on what you saw last weekend.

But unless you have another star to go along with Duchene, you let him walk to preserve your top 5 pick next season.

This team would have to unload Jones to be even close to top 5 bad.

This is a losing mentality. A willing failure is a failure.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

This team would have to unload Jones to be even close to top 5 bad.

This is a losing mentality. A willing failure is a failure.

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree

 

[majormajor]

If we hire a coach that implements a modern offensive system, Duchene and the team as a whole would thrive. Imagine if we had Barry Trotz or Gerard Gallant with this roster.

I hate to burst your bubble but there is no sense in which those guys have "modern offensive systems" and Torts does not. Torts systems are not that bizarre, they're actually pretty similar to Gallant's. Those two are very different coaches temperamentally, not structurally. And Trotz' calling card is shutdown hockey, not scoring. He made the Islanders go 31st to 1st in team defence. He didn't help the Islanders score more (many of their forwards have seen a a decline in production).

 

[GoJackets1]

I hate to burst your bubble but there is no sense in which those guys have "modern offensive systems" and Torts does not. Torts systems are not that bizarre, they're actually pretty similar to Gallant's. Those two are very different coaches temperamentally, not structurally. And Trotz' calling card is shutdown hockey, not scoring. He made the Islanders go 31st to 1st in team defence. He didn't help the Islanders score more (many of their forwards have seen a a decline in production).

That's fine and definitely notable. Maybe I should rephrase to transition game, as I don't think our game in the offensive zone really differs that much from other teams, with the exception of our players seemingly lacking an ability to get open compared to other teams with our skill level. That being said, our defensive system isn't exactly all world either.

After watching the Caps last year in the playoffs, you're right, it's clear that Trotz absolutely has a stout defensive system, but his teams also have generally had a fantastic transition game highlighted by carrying the puck into the zone with speed, and the puck carrier pulling up to create space in the middle of the ice. By comparison, Torts' calling cards are dump and chase, and safe is death.

Dump and chase is widely considered an outdated concept in today's NHL, at least in terms of a transition game that focuses on it. Obviously teams can't carry the puck into the zone every time, but all of the contending teams in the league right now do not use it as the default zone entry. About a year ago, I wanted to start a project that actually compared the amount of high danger chances generated by different types of zone entries. I thought about it after going to a Bruins-Wings game where it was very notable that the Bruins utilized the carry-in zone entry whenever possible, and generated a high quality chance, shot on net, or goal, almost every time they did. When I then went back to watching the Jackets, they almost never made those same kinds of plays. Unfortunately I never got around to actually statistically evaluate this, but I would be shocked if dump and chase generated anywhere near as many chances per entry as carry in.

Safe is death is something I actually liked as a concept at first. But somehow it seems the CBJ's ability to actually implement it has worsened. Now that we have the skill up front that we have, I'm not convinced that this is a concept we need our defensemen to utilize, especially with our defense currently suffering. The only one I'm actually confident can do it successfully is Seth. At least this season, it has led to far too many odd man rushes for it to be worth it. Bob gets hung out to dry 3-5 times a game. I've really been struggling to pinpoint why it suddenly got so much worse.

Overall, my main concern with the team is that over a 2 year period, they seem to be playing worse this year than last. To me that can only be a coaching problem. I also have maintained my position on Torts for awhile now, so I swear I'm not simply reacting to current events. I think an actually elite coach is what gets this team to the next level.

To bring it back to the thread, I think we should keep Duchene if he wants to stay. I just want him and all of the other skilled players on the team to have a coach that, in my opinion, better facilitates their development and ability to thrive together.

 

[majormajor]

That's fine and definitely notable. Maybe I should rephrase to transition game, as I don't think our game in the offensive zone really differs that much from other teams, with the exception of our players seemingly lacking an ability to get open compared to other teams with our skill level. That being said, our defensive system isn't exactly all world either.

After watching the Caps last year in the playoffs, you're right, it's clear that Trotz absolutely has a stout defensive system, but his teams also have generally had a fantastic transition game highlighted by carrying the puck into the zone with speed, and the puck carrier pulling up to create space in the middle of the ice. By comparison, Torts' calling cards are dump and chase, and safe is death.

Dump and chase is widely considered an outdated concept in today's NHL, at least in terms of a transition game that focuses on it. Obviously teams can't carry the puck into the zone every time, but all of the contending teams in the league right now do not use it as the default zone entry. About a year ago, I wanted to start a project that actually compared the amount of high danger chances generated by different types of zone entries. I thought about it after going to a Bruins-Wings game where it was very notable that the Bruins utilized the carry-in zone entry whenever possible, and generated a high quality chance, shot on net, or goal, almost every time they did. When I then went back to watching the Jackets, they almost never made those same kinds of plays. Unfortunately I never got around to actually statistically evaluate this, but I would be shocked if dump and chase generated anywhere near as many chances per entry as carry in.

Safe is death is something I actually liked as a concept at first. But somehow it seems the CBJ's ability to actually implement it has worsened. Now that we have the skill up front that we have, I'm not convinced that this is a concept we need our defensemen to utilize, especially with our defense currently suffering. The only one I'm actually confident can do it successfully is Seth. At least this season, it has led to far too many odd man rushes for it to be worth it. Bob gets hung out to dry 3-5 times a game. I've really been struggling to pinpoint why it suddenly got so much worse.

Overall, my main concern with the team is that over a 2 year period, they seem to be playing worse this year than last. To me that can only be a coaching problem. I also have maintained my position on Torts for awhile now, so I swear I'm not simply reacting to current events. I think an actually elite coach is what gets this team to the next level.

To bring it back to the thread, I think we should keep Duchene if he wants to stay. I just want him and all of the other skilled players on the team to have a coach that, in my opinion, better facilitates their development and ability to thrive together.

What I've seen from the Jackets is that Panarin's line does a lot more carry-in, and FJA does a lot more dump-ins. They're also very very good at winning the puck after the dump-in, so we wouldn't want them to change, what we're really talking about here is how to integrate Duchene and Dzingel. I could be wrong but I saw them and Bjorkstrand doing some very nice carry-ins. It certainly seems there is no prohibition against it. There might be an issue with the way the D break out and pass almost always straight along the wall, and if it's contested at the red line the puck will be tipped in (the so-called "neutral zone bypass"). The bypass is an essential feature of Torts' system. I don't think Duchene is being told not to carry it. But he might be receiving passes that are designed for dump ins, which would be a problem.


**
I 100% agree about the failure of the strategy that we can see in the mounting odd-man rushes against. I think that failure just comes from the difficulty of a system that requires all the players to cover each other and cover so much ice. All it takes is for a couple guys to be a few feet off and the system breaks. The system doesn't bend, it breaks.

***
You might be on to something about the transition game. I don't know if the carry-in and button-hook is something this group should do. I'd want to see some data on this - I believe it was Corey Sznajder (he's on twitter) who was gathering data on success rates of different entry types. It's really hard to judge because a dump-in can be both a primary strategy and an alternative in case the zone is well defended, so it's success rate is going to be biased downward.

 

[majormajor]

That's fine and definitely notable.

I'm glad you brought this up, because now it's occurred to me that in the last week, the D are definitely taking longer behind the net to start the breakout. It seems they're less confident in running pucks straight up the wall on the neutral zone bypass, or perhaps they just have more options to choose from. Perhaps Duchene or others are looping a little lower looking for a pass that they can take and carry the puck into the zone.

 

[GoJackets1]

You might be on to something about the transition game. I don't know if the carry-in and button-hook is something this group should do. I'd want to see some data on this - I believe it was Corey Sznajder (he's on twitter) who was gathering data on success rates of different entry types. It's really hard to judge because a dump-in can be both a primary strategy and an alternative in case the zone is well defended, so it's success rate is going to be biased downward.

Yeah, and this was one of the the variables that I realized would be pretty difficult to note when I considered compiling some data. However, I think it's possible that it can be reasonably noted when a player chooses to dump a puck in, rather than being forced to dump it in (IE if there is an opposing player within stick length). Maybe this is something that I'll take up after all. I would certainly love to know the answer.

All I know is, I was in awe of the transition game the Bruins had, and it reminded me of the days where the Wings absolutely dominated us with similar plays... Which ultimately led me to believe it's a superior strategy to dump and chase. I think lines with Panarin and Duchene could certainly generate more chances using this transition as the default. Whereas you are correct about the FJA line being more suitable for dump and chase. Andy alone makes that a legitimately good option, which is why I'm worried they might be split up in all the line fumbling.

 

[InfiniteElement]

I think you gotta sign him (wouldn't go over 8/8.5M per) assuming he's willing and he performs at an adequate pace the rest of this season. Keeping Jenner at 3C is good and I don't know who else would push for 2C.

 

[Absolut]

What you see is what you get with Matt. He is a very solid addition to any team. But he doesn't make a team go (few players do). Is he a good value at $8 mm / 7 yrs? Personally, I don't think so. But I have no doubt that he'll get that somewhere. I am not sure that somewhere should be your team, and I would have a cow if the Rangers signed him to a big contract. I want Bread. I do think some teams would be greatly strengthened by Duchene's presence. He can be very valuable to the Oilers, for example.

 

[hardkorejackets]

Love the player but he should go. Next season is going to likely be a tire fire, and he's not worth losing a potential top 5 pick for.

In the extremely unlikely event we can keep Panarin, you keep Duchene too. But unless you have another star to go along with Duchene, you let him walk to preserve your top 5 pick next season.

I don't think that this assessment is very far off to be entirely honest. As of the trade deadline with Bread and Bob- We were a fringe playoff team. We are still a fringe playoff team afterwards (granted with upgrades on paper). I think if you subtract Duchene, Bread, Dzingel, Bob (remember, how good he was in the prior 2 years and his career when healthy)- I think there could be some struggles next year. People say watch us not sign any of them- I think if we can't resign any of those- We could be in for some struggles. I think we can at least sign Dzingel.

Keep in mind- Bread is a 80 point a year player, a line driver, make plays that not many people can. Losing him for nothing in the off-season is going to hurt. Cam Atkinson will still be good, but I don't think we'll see Cam get the same point totals without him.

I think we could see similar struggles in net next year as well. I don't think Korpisalo is our answer as a #1 goalie. Should he play more with Bobrovsky's struggles- Yes, but I don't think he's that much of a better goalie. Do we sign a UFA? Just rely on Merzlikins to be the answer? Maybe, I'm being a pessimist- But, I don't know whether to fully count on Merzlikins as a reliable NHL goalie- when he has no experience in the AHL/NHL. He'll be 25, but I'm cautious with goalie voodoo.

Is Texier/Foudy/Bemstrom ready to step into the NHL next year or do they need more seasoning? None have played a game in the AHL.

I don't know if we are necessarily a bottom 5 NHL team- But, I could see us being a non-playoff team. A team that finishes like 6-12 range or so. It's not the greatest of picks- But, with the NHL draft lottery, maybe you could get lucky.

Not that, I'm saying we should prepare for a tank job- Not sign any UFA's, not sign Duchene, rely on Korpi/Merzlikins- But, i think if we went down that route, we could certainly suck.