Dreger: Matt Duchene Mega-thread:Habs, NSH, NYI, OTT inquired - Part IV

[Filthy Dangles]

Galchenyuk, Sergachev, 1st

Duchene, Grigorenko

 

[Ginu]

Galchenyuk, Sergachev, 1st

Duchene, Grigorenko

Ya there's no point of getting Duchene if that's what we have to give up lol

 

[SensNation613]

I think another factor to consider is the expansion draft. Sure there isn't a single team in the NHL that wouldn't protect Duchene but I think Colorado was aiming for ED exempt players in return. This would force certain teams to expose better forwards and they may have considered it when deciding on deals.

Just going to use Ottawa as an example:
Turris - Stone - Brassard - Hoffman - Smith - Pageau - Dzingel

As an example, had we moved White+ for Duchy, one of Pageau/Dzingel would be exposed. A guy like Dorion loves these two players and might consider that when talking trade. Maybe teams are more desperate at TD but I'm sure they're all keeping the expansion draft in the back of their minds. Certain teams have exactly 7 forwards worth protecting and having to expose one of them if acquiring Duchy probably plays a role in their thought process.

As a Sens fan, I'm all for acquiring Duchene but the idea of losing a player like Pageau/Dzingel because of the draft makes me want to wait until summer. That way, you can add a star player to the core group while still keeping quality depth alongside them.

 

[El_Loco_Avs]

Ya there's no point of getting Duchene if that's what we have to give up lol

Reverse hold true as well. No point in giving up Duchene without getting a young D with lots of potential.

 

[Benedict Kovalchuk]

Reverse hold true as well. No point in giving up Duchene without getting a young D with lots of potential.

Eh, not as much as it would for the Habs. Its not like the Avs are one LHD from competing, maximizing sheer value wouldn't be the worst thing as they look to be embarking on a rebuild.

 

[cgf]

Eh, not as much as it would for the Habs. Its not like the Avs are one LHD from competing, maximizing sheer value wouldn't be the worst thing as they look to be embarking on a rebuild.

They may not be one LHD away from contending, but if this year's 1st is a C; then the team is just a potential #1 and a top 6er away from having the rebuild on track to actually end successfully. And with the way this draft is shaping up, we won't be able to draft the dman with this year's pick. If it's not from a Duchene trade our only shot at that potential #1 is getting lucky in next year's draft.

Jost - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Landeskog - '17 1st - '18 1st
Greer - Compher - Morrison
Nieto - Beaudin - Andrighetto
Nantel - Henley - Barron

DutchyTrade - EJ
Zadorov - Barrie
Bigras - Meloche
Boikov - Mironov
(Clurman)

Varlamov
Martin
Pickard

 

[JoemAvs]

Eh, not as much as it would for the Habs. Its not like the Avs are one LHD from competing, maximizing sheer value wouldn't be the worst thing as they look to be embarking on a rebuild.

What does maximizing sheer value right now do if you will be forced to make a Hall for Larsson trade a few years down the road to adress the defense as a consequence of it?

Why not be smart and try to adress your biggest need by far with your biggest trade chip instead?


That little bit of extra value you might get by not insisting on that high value D piece in return right now will be easily lost 10x over when you will be forced to overpay 3-4 years down the road for a similar prospect/player when your young team needs that D to take the next step...

 

[Kimota]

It's unfortunate that Habs-Avs did not happen.

As talented as Duchene is, if I'm Sakic and in a rebuilding mode and I won't win with him and the Avs hasn't been any good with this core, I take Sergachev, Plekanec and 1st and run. You are getting a top prospect, you are getting a center that can play hockey and can fill the Duchene loss for a little bit while you are rebuilding.

And if I'm the Habs, I do this cause it finally fill the hole they needed for a long time and as much as Sergachev is valuable, you need to win now. The 1st, who cares since if you go far in the playoffs it's more like a 2nd. And trading Plek is like a salarary dump cause you can't take Duchene without moving a salary.

I feel like both GMs needed to take a shill pill and use logic and a deal could have been easily possible.

 

[tucker3434]

It's unfortunate that Habs-Avs did not happen.

As talented as Duchene is, if I'm Sakic and in a rebuilding mode and I won't win with him and the Avs hasn't been any good with this core, I take Sergachev, Plekanec and 1st and run. You are getting a top prospect, you are getting a center that can play hockey and can fill the Duchene loss for a little bit while you are rebuilding.

And if I'm the Habs, I do this cause it finally fill the hole they needed for a long time and as much as Sergachev is valuable, you need to win now. The 1st, who cares since if you go far in the playoffs it's more like a 2nd. And trading Plek is like a salarary dump cause you can't take Duchene without moving a salary.

I feel like both GMs needed to take a shill pill and use logic and a deal could have been easily possible.

If that deal was on the table, I'd be disappointed they couldn't work something out. If Bergevin's final offer was centered around Beaulieau, I'm glad it didn't happen.

We really don't know how close they got.

 

[Ice Crusher]

They are taking a big risk with their asset. In many scenarios, Sakic is wrong for not taking "the bird in hand" and the Avs are worse off because of it.

It isn't about the offer they want, it is the fact that Sakic is gambling with some very hard to guess odds. If you're fine with the gamble itself, that's your choice, but not everyone will be fine with it.

The likelihood of Duchene returning more in the off-season is balanced against the possibility of him returning a similar package to the deadline or even returning a smaller package. Possible injury/overt trade demand, poor/good play, availability of trade targets, changing size of market, etc...

Lots of factors will change in the off-season, but they all aren't all likely to be positive for Duchene.

If Duchene doesn't return more in the off-season, Sakic gambled for nothing. If he returns less, he will be open to well-deserved criticism.

Only if Duchene somehow returns more than was rumored would Sakic have made a good choice.

We don't know the offers that were out there, but based on the reports, Sakic's demands weren't very reasonable. How certain is Sakic that Duchene will return more in the off-season? I don't know how he can be certain it will be a better return.

Edit: All that being said, Sakic is the one who will bear the responsibility if something goes wrong. My guess is that he will end up with a similar package to the deadline based on teams making trades for expansion. As such, I don't think it was terribly stupid of him. On the other hand, I don't think he'll get much more either.

And I think most Avs fans are fine with getting similar value to the deadline. From my perspective with the expansion, more teams are going to be willing to deal in the offseason.

On another note, I was one of the few that thinks the core isn't the problem but the depth and defense on our team was always an issue. Bad signings were also part of the bad seasons we had. If keeping Duchene and drafting a typical defenseman like Jones, Hanifin, Werenski, Provorov and bringing our young guys like Mironov, Siemens, Bigras, Meloche, Jost, Greer, Compher to replace the deadwood on our team, I think were more close than people think.

 

[Drydenwasthebest]

Reverse hold true as well. No point in giving up Duchene without getting a young D with lots of potential.

The young "D" is not the deal breaker. The 1st is not the deal breaker. Adding Galchenyuk to the young "D" is the deal breaker. Sergachev, 1st, and something else is fair. Galchenyuk being involved is stupid for the Habs. Nobody will trade a 30 goal scoring younger center in addition to a 1st and a blue chip defensive prospect for Duchene. That would be really bad asset management.

 

[ThunderBird]

The young "D" is not the deal breaker. The 1st is not the deal breaker. Adding Galchenyuk to the young "D" is the deal breaker. Sergachev, 1st, and something else is fair. Galchenyuk being involved is stupid for the Habs. Nobody will trade a 30 goal scoring younger center in addition to a 1st and a blue chip defensive prospect for Duchene. That would be really bad asset management.

If the Avs were offered that we would jump, but I don't think any of us fans think that is even a possibility. I think most of us fans would be happy with Serg, 1st, prospect, cap dump. The prospect would be negotiated and if a depth player needs thrown that would also depend on the prospect and negotiated.

 

[Jeffrey]

Ya there's no point of getting Duchene if that's what we have to give up lol

I think the ship has sailed. I don't see the habs going back to Duchene.

 

[Jeffrey]

Duchene>RNH

Fair point but if a deal for Duchene is around Sergachev/Chabot and a deal for RNH is around Beaulieu/Ceci.

I would easily take the deal for RNH.

I feel both are in similar situation as highly thought prospect that did not deliver to their draft ranking but could still be useful center.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I think the ship has sailed. I don't see the habs going back to Duchene.

I think a few teams were really interested to bolster their chances this year and were looking to add immediately for a playoff run, these teams will likely be out going forward and I would put both Ottawa and Montreal in there. Both will look to add in UFA or internally. If either Lando/Duch is made available in the future other teams may get in on it but im thinking a few packages that may have been offered would now be off the table moving forward.

 

[Freudian]

I think a few teams were really interested to bolster their chances this year and were looking to add immediately for a playoff run, these teams will likely be out going forward and I would put both Ottawa and Montreal in there. Both will look to add in UFA or internally. If either Lando/Duch is made available in the future other teams may get in on it but im thinking a few packages that may have been offered would now be off the table moving forward.

Only Caps and Wild were interested in bolstering their chances this deadline.

Most of the other teams (Ottawa, Montreal and so on) were just tinkering with minor, rather pointless, moves.

 

[Dipietro39]

Per TSN yesterday:

If Hall (better offensive player) was traded for Larsson, how Duchene worth top 4 YOUNG D + Top Prospect + 1st round pick.

Avs fans are over valuing him and will be disappointed in the return. I guarantee it.

Very happy the Isles didn't trade for him at those prices.

 

[Freudian]

Per TSN yesterday:

If Hall (better offensive player) was traded for Larsson, how Duchene worth top 4 YOUNG D + Top Prospect + 1st round pick.

Avs fans are over valuing him and will be disappointed in the return. I guarantee it.

Very happy the Isles didn't trade for him at those prices.

Why is Hall for Larsson the universal measure of player value instead of Erat for Forsberg or Hanzal as a rental for a 1st and two 2nds?

Most trades aren't as lopsided as those trades and expecting your teams trade to match that value (always on the winning side of course) just make you have unrealistic expectations.

If Barzal wasn't on the table, of course Sakic isn't going to trade Duchene to Islanders. C'mon now.

 

[triggrman]

Why is Hall for Larsson the universal measure of player value instead of Erat for Forsberg or Hanzal as a rental for a 1st and two 2nds?

Most trades aren't as lopsided as those trades and expecting your teams trade to match that value (always on the winning side of course) just make you have unrealistic expectations.

If Barzal wasn't on the table, of course Sakic isn't going to trade Duchene to Islanders. C'mon now.

great point.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Per TSN yesterday:

If Hall (better offensive player) was traded for Larsson, how Duchene worth top 4 YOUNG D + Top Prospect + 1st round pick.

Avs fans are over valuing him and will be disappointed in the return. I guarantee it.

Very happy the Isles didn't trade for him at those prices.

By "Per TSN" you mean the host of the show James Duthie? This theory was then immediately shot down by Ray Ferraro who hates the Avalanche. Cute way to go about it though by saying "Per TSN" instead of admitting who actually said that.

One trade doesn't dictate the market. UFA 3rd line centre with a career high 41 points in Martin Hanzal arguably returned better "value" than Taylor Hall did. The timing and fit for the trading team doesn't mean every future trade will duplicate that.

 

[Avs44]

Per TSN yesterday:

If Hall (better offensive player) was traded for Larsson, how Duchene worth top 4 YOUNG D + Top Prospect + 1st round pick.

Avs fans are over valuing him and will be disappointed in the return. I guarantee it.

Very happy the Isles didn't trade for him at those prices.

You mean Duthie, yeah? Meanwhile Bob McKenzie has offered his personal opinion several times in which he said that, in his opinion, the Avs shouldn't lower their price.



I've explained why the Larsson trade is a terrible comparison a multitude of times. If that is still beyond the grasp of some people, that's their problem. A little basic logic would go a long way.

 

[CodeE]

I think the ship has sailed. I don't see the habs going back to Duchene.

Penguins fans have been speculating with Islander fans that both of our teams met Sakic's "asking price", only for Sakic to raise the asking price even further. Pens fans claim they had Maata, Jarry, 1st on the table, only to have Sakic go "we're also gonna need you to add Sheary/Guentzel/Sprong".

If this is true, Sakic might have just burned some bridges with GMs who were eager and willing to meet his asking price. As much as us fans like to crap on our own GMs, Rutherford's been a General Manager since 1994 and even Snow has over a decade of GM experience under his belt.

Playing these games with veteran GMs? If it's true Colorado needs Sakic out ASAP, and although it's just speculation it makes a lot of sense when you look at the overall picture.

- 0 deals for Snow.

- 2 minor deals for Sakic, strangely ignoring a lot of veteran UFAs that a seller would normally move for anything staying in Colorado.

- 2 last-minute deals for Rutherford, likely after he found out he wasn't getting Duchene and rushed to make some moves to at least try and keep up with Washington adding Shattenkirk.

Even Montreal makes sense, they put in a fair offer that Sakic also rejected, but still managed to make the Andreghetto swap during discussions with Sakic.

If the most interested parties feel slighted and decide to "move on", it's a very bad sign for Duchene's future value.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Penguins fans have been speculating with Islander fans that both of our teams met Sakic's "asking price", only for Sakic to raise the asking price even further. Pens fans claim they had Maata, Jarry, 1st on the table, only to have Sakic go "we're also gonna need you to add Sheary/Guentzel/Sprong".

If this is true, Sakic might have just burned some bridges with GMs who were eager and willing to meet his asking price. As much as us fans like to crap on our own GMs, Rutherford's been a General Manager since 1994 and even Snow has over a decade of GM experience under his belt.

Playing these games with veteran GMs? If it's true Colorado needs Sakic out ASAP, and although it's just speculation it makes a lot of sense when you look at the overall picture.

- 0 deals for Snow.

- 2 minor deals for Sakic, strangely ignoring a lot of veteran UFAs that a seller would normally move for anything staying in Colorado.

- 2 last-minute deals for Rutherford, likely after he found out he wasn't getting Duchene and rushed to make some moves to at least try and keep up with Washington adding Shattenkirk.

Even Montreal makes sense, they put in a fair offer that Sakic also rejected, but still managed to make the Andreghetto swap during discussions with Sakic.

If the most interested parties feel slighted and decide to "move on", it's a very bad sign for Duchene's future value.

Meeting demands is one thing.

Sakic came out with a general guideline of what he wanted as offers.

But once GMs start calling, the offers will change depending on the players included.

Not all prospects are equal. Not all 1st are equal, and not all defence are equal.

Barzal is clearly not the same as MDC.

Sergachev is clearly not the same as Beaulieu.

And Maatta, is as risky an option as they come.

Bob Mckenzie has stated from the beginning the price was likely 4 or 5 pieces depending on who was included.

Saying you "meet demands" is essentially just posturing.

Hamonic, Barzal and a 1st
&
Pulock, MDC and 1st

Both meet demands. But they're clearly different. Sakic was going to ask for specific players once he got into discussions with teams. Those GMs clearly didn't put what Sakic wanted and instead just tried to assemble together the pieces that fit the demand.

Not sure where I read it, but the islanders supposedly didn't include hamonic or Barzal.

Pretty pointless discussion. Because all I see are teams who were hoping to get duchene, unhappy that they didn't get him for subpar packages. There's not a single avs fan unhappy that these packages weren't accepted.

 

[1909]

Why would Colorado trade Duchene and-or Landeskog ?

All they need is get a better coach and a couple of d-man that they can draft or acquire on the UFA market.

 

[Freudian]

Penguins fans have been speculating with Islander fans that both of our teams met Sakic's "asking price", only for Sakic to raise the asking price even further. Pens fans claim they had Maata, Jarry, 1st on the table, only to have Sakic go "we're also gonna need you to add Sheary/Guentzel/Sprong".

If this is true, Sakic might have just burned some bridges with GMs who were eager and willing to meet his asking price. As much as us fans like to crap on our own GMs, Rutherford's been a General Manager since 1994 and even Snow has over a decade of GM experience under his belt.

Playing these games with veteran GMs? If it's true Colorado needs Sakic out ASAP, and although it's just speculation it makes a lot of sense when you look at the overall picture.

- 0 deals for Snow.

- 2 minor deals for Sakic, strangely ignoring a lot of veteran UFAs that a seller would normally move for anything staying in Colorado.

- 2 last-minute deals for Rutherford, likely after he found out he wasn't getting Duchene and rushed to make some moves to at least try and keep up with Washington adding Shattenkirk.

Even Montreal makes sense, they put in a fair offer that Sakic also rejected, but still managed to make the Andreghetto swap during discussions with Sakic.

If the most interested parties feel slighted and decide to "move on", it's a very bad sign for Duchene's future value.

They 'met' Sakic's asking price by pretending Maatta and Pulock/deHaan was the young high end defender it would take to make a deal.

Obviously that wasn't going to work for Sakic and that was why he didn't trade Duchene yesterday.

Bob McKenzie said all along that the asking price was very high and Sakic wouldn't budge from it. That's exactly what happened yesterday. If GMs and fans of other teams are salty about him not budging because they expected him to, that's on them.