Seems unlikely. Barzal started out getting limited minutes and limited power play time and his scoring increased fairly significantly as the season went on. Had he got decent minutes from the start he’d probably have had over 90 points. This should help balance out any loss in points from extra attention. He was the biggest point getter on that team in the second half as Tavares tailed off.Or, it is the fact that Tavares faced QoC in the 97th percentile and with no Tavares, Barzal will be going up against elite competition with not much surrounding him. They have no matchup centerman whatsoever. Add into the equation that he was in the 39th percentile in dzone starts, and there is a legitimate, even likely, case for regression.
Other teams already saw him as a huge scoring threat last year. He’s used to the attention.
85 point rookies historically since the lockout have been exceptional players
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