Mat Barzal WILL take a huge step back next season

[The Winter Soldier]

Isles should have gone hard after Stastny to shelter Barzal. He has much better tools than Tavares and could be in the Seguin/Kuznetsov/MacKinnon tier with good coaching and support

I agree. I liked Statsny if JT outpriced himself from the Isles. Poster @Instant did not like this strategy. Wonder what her ideas are on this now? But it looks like it was JT all or nothing. As the Isles didn't even have a chance to bid on Statsny. 3 years at 6.5 is what it cost VGK. Statsny would have been a great alternative on the shorter and cheaper caphit.

I think Barzal will be fine.. by the 2nd half of the season he was the Center facing #1D pairings. The ones that watched the Isles games know this. An Islanders fan posted a chart collaboratng this.

 

[LemonSauceD]

I think without Tavares now, there's going to be a lot of pressure on Barzal to perform, and I agree with the poster above me.

I don't know, but ROR could be a good fit for you guys, not familiar with your cap and all that, and not sure what it would take to get it done, but someone like ROR could take a lot of the pressure off of Barzal. Bozak would've been good too but went to St Louis.

 

[Fantomas]

Tavares is a notorious underachiever who for some reason gets by on a reputation of being a great star. With the way Leafs Nation is celebrating one wonders if they watched him play at all, so blissfully unaware of his many disappearing acts.

And things looked so good for them for a while. Now, in a span of weeks, they lose Hunter and all the scouts close to him and shackle themselves with the league's most overrated superstar.

I am not worried about Barzal and the Isles at all. They just had an amazing draft and Barzal will lead them for years to come.

 

[Instant]

I agree. I liked Statsny if JT outpriced himself from the Isles. Poster @Instant did not like this strategy. Wonder what her ideas are on this now? But it looks like it was JT all or nothing. As the Isles didn't even have a chance to bid on Statsny. 3 years at 6.5 is what it cost VGK. Statsny would have been a great alternative on the shorter and cheaper caphit.

Sorry, no idea who this Statsny guy is.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think without Tavares now, there's going to be a lot of pressure on Barzal to perform, and I agree with the poster above me.

I don't know, but ROR could be a good fit for you guys, not familiar with your cap and all that, and not sure what it would take to get it done, but someone like ROR could take a lot of the pressure off of Barzal. Bozak would've been good too but went to St Louis.

I don't like ROR at 7.5M. He hasn't really taken any pressure off Eichel in Buffalo NY. I would look at a Cap strapped team. We can see some hint hint coming soon and try to work out a deal. But there should be plenty of opportunities to add Center depth. Maybe even an offer sheet. Not crazy about big long cap hits unless they are for young core players.

 

[Islesfan22]

Barzal thrives when he has to be the man. He took an average Seattle team on his back to the Memorial Cup. Barzal will see not having Tavares as a challenge. He has line mates who can still put the puck in the nets. He will raise his game and I believe under Trots will be a better overall player.

 

[tictactoe]

Huge step? I mean how huge? He already scored 85...

 

[tucker3434]

Barzal thrives when he has to be the man. He took an average Seattle team on his back to the Memorial Cup. Barzal will see not having Tavares as a challenge. He has line mates who can still put the puck in the nets. He will raise his game and I believe under Trots will be a better overall player.

It doesn’t always necessarily work that way at this level.

One thing is for sure, Barzal will now be facing top pairing defensemen 100% of the time while on the road. I guess the flip side of that is that he no longer has to split the best offensive opportunities with Tavares either though. But if the over/under is 85, I’d pretty safely take the under.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

How many times in the past has someone who produced at an elite leveled regressed the following year? It's happened, obviously, but I'm not sure why it's assumed it will happen with Barzal just because Tavares is no longer around.

 

[buud]

It doesn’t always necessarily work that way at this level.

One thing is for sure, Barzal will now be facing top pairing defensemen 100% of the time while on the road. I guess the flip side of that is that he no longer has to split the best offensive opportunities with Tavares either though. But if the over/under is 85, I’d pretty safely take the under.

Barzal will also be getting more O-zone starts. and will probably be the focus of the PP from now on. the kid's as confident as hell, and talented as hell. i think he is 10-20 forwards next year (points), and improves on his defensive game. even if he doesn't score as much, he absolutely dominates with his skating and possession.

i will not diss JT for his actions/motivations, but i can tell you, Barzal was better than him last year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It doesn’t always necessarily work that way at this level.

One thing is for sure, Barzal will now be facing top pairing defensemen 100% of the time while on the road. I guess the flip side of that is that he no longer has to split the best offensive opportunities with Tavares either though. But if the over/under is 85, I’d pretty safely take the under.

Shouldn't Av fans, maybe more than any other fanbase, be aware of how losing a 1C doesn't mean the guy who takes his place will falter now that he's the main focus? Trading Duchene didn't exactly hurt MacKinnon's production/play. In fact, he was on fire after Duchene got dealt. Why can't the same thing happen for Barzal?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

How many times in the past has someone who produced at an elite leveled regressed the following year? It's happened, obviously, but I'm not sure why it's assumed it will happen with Barzal just because Tavares is no longer around.

Tarasenko went from 39 goals and 75 points to 33 goals and 66 points. Ovechkin went from 85 points to 65 the next year back in 2012. Kane went from 89 to 76 points. Benn went from 89 to 69 points a couple of years ago. It does happen for sure. It's really impossible to say if it will happen to Barzal, but I would think that losing a player of Tavares' caliber on the powerplay will hurt his numbers. I also don't know that I would call that a regression or a "huge step back" though. I assume he'll be the same caliber player as this year or better, although his numbers might look worse

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Tarasenko went from 39 goals and 75 points to 33 goals and 66 points. Ovechkin went from 85 points to 65 the next year back in 2012. Kane went from 89 to 76 points. Benn went from 89 to 69 points a couple of years ago. It does happen for sure. It's really impossible to say if it will happen to Barzal, but I would think that losing a player of Tavares' caliber on the powerplay will hurt his numbers. I also don't know that I would call that a regression or a "huge step back" though. I assume he'll be the same caliber player as this year or better, although his numbers might look worse

But I'm talking outright regression, which is what a lot of people seem to think will happen to Barzal. Him scoring 70-75 points next year, I wouldn't consider regression.

Regression would be like MacKinnon going from 63 points as a rookie all the way down to like 38 points as a sophomore. Barzal may see a slight drop in total points, but I don't think we'll see actual regression (ie. going from looking like an elite 1C to now looking like he should be a 2C or lower).

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

But I'm talking outright regression, which is what a lot of people seem to think will happen to Barzal. Him scoring 70-75 points next year, I wouldn't consider regression.

Regression would be like MacKinnon going from 63 points as a rookie all the way down to like 38 points as a sophomore. Barzal may see a slight drop in total points, but I don't think we'll see actual regression (ie. going from looking like an elite 1C to now looking like he should be a 2C or lower).

yeah I basically said as much. I think he'll take on more responsibility and play a larger role while being about the same in terms of ability. Players don't simply lose their talent after one year in the league. it's not really a thing other than in extreme cases.

 

[sabremike]

People are also sleeping on the fact that last season he was coached by Bozo the Clown, this season he will be coached by a guy who is not just arguably the best coach in the league but who is also among the best coaches ever. This is also the same reason I completely expect pajama boy to have a very good season as well: he is playing for a real quality coach for the first time in his career.

 

[tucker3434]

Shouldn't Av fans, maybe more than any other fanbase, be aware of how losing a 1C doesn't mean the guy who takes his place will falter now that he's the main focus? Trading Duchene didn't exactly hurt MacKinnon's production/play. In fact, he was on fire after Duchene got dealt. Why can't the same thing happen for Barzal?

The Avs had a pretty bizarre 24 months. There wasn’t much that happened over that span that I think will be repeated very often by anyone.

Plus, Mack was in his 5th season. Barzal is in his second. Barzal could be as good or even play a better all-around game and not hit 85.

 

[TheRexman]

Don't get me wrong, I like this kid alot. great hands, speed and a deadly hockey IQ.
However that being said hes going have a huge drop off in points next year.
Teams will be looking at him a lot closer and have their top defense on him
If JT doesn't resign, he will be relied on to go up against top centers in the NHL, something he isn't ready for.
Add all this into a team that has no defense or goal tending his plus minus is going take a hit.

I can still see him reaching the 60 point mark but i cant expect anything close to the 80 plus he put up last year

Everything said before a "but" or "however" is usually bull.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

For reference, Tavares went from 54 points as a rookie, to 67 points as a sophomore, to 81 points in his third year. This, despite the fact teams got adjusted to him and he had to face the other team's top defense units.

If Tavares could do it without massive regression once the league got more tape on him, why is it such a stretch to think Barzal can handle it, too?

 

[PWJunior]

For reference, Tavares went from 54 points as a rookie, to 67 points as a sophomore, to 81 points in his third year. This, despite the fact teams got adjusted to him and he had to face the other team's top defense units.

If Tavares could do it without massive regression once the league got more tape on him, why is it such a stretch to think Barzal can handle it, too?

I think Barzal makes the transition to the new alpha dog seamlessly this season. Next season is his D+4 season and he's a young man at 21. He was 'the man' for Seattle for multiple seasons after being drafted and led them to the WHL title and a Memorial Cup berth. Assuming the mantle seems like the natural progression in his development.

I expect him to be about the PPG pace again next season and more likely to improve his numbers. Barzal proved how explosive he can be with the 3 5-pointers and the numerous multi-point games. When he gains possession of the puck in the defensive zone with any open ice in front of him, it's almost an automatic offensive zone entry. He dictates the play like few can, that simply works no matter which defensive pairings are on him.

McDavid is the gold standard of the fleet footed puck dominant centers that control the play. Barzal is in that mode with more east-west wiggle to his game. That profile of player is oftentimes a high end one.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think Barzal makes the transition to the new alpha dog seamlessly this season. Next season is his D+4 season and he's a young man at 21. He was 'the man' for Seattle for multiple seasons after being drafted and led them to the WHL title and a Memorial Cup berth. Assuming the mantle seems like the natural progression in his development.

I expect him to be about the PPG pace again next season and more likely to improve his numbers. Barzal proved how explosive he can be with the 3 5-pointers and the numerous multi-point games. When he gains possession of the puck in the defensive zone with any open ice in front of him, it's almost an automatic offensive zone entry. He dictates the play like few can, that simply works no matter which defensive pairings are on him.

McDavid is the gold standard of the fleet footed puck dominant centers that control the play. Barzal is in that mode with more east-west wiggle to his game. That profile of player is oftentimes a high end one.

I think more often than not, elite play drivers don't regress. The players who regress are typically either players who simply had seasons above their capabilities, or players who aren't play drivers and need someone else to create the chances for them.

The only time you typically see a high end play driver regress is due to a serious injury that hampers them.

 

[blueberrie]

For reference, Tavares went from 54 points as a rookie, to 67 points as a sophomore, to 81 points in his third year. This, despite the fact teams got adjusted to him and he had to face the other team's top defense units.

If Tavares could do it without massive regression once the league got more tape on him, why is it such a stretch to think Barzal can handle it, too?

I agree with your other points about there being few examples of rookies regressing. Generally elite players get better, not worse.

But Tavares is a bad comparable, he was on a different level as a prospect and broke in the NHL in his D+1.

I don't think Barzal is going to regress talent wise or look any less elite, but I think I would comfortably take the under on him matching his rookie point totals.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

A big step back?
First rookie since Malkin to put up 85 points. If he takes a step it will be forward not back. Kids the real deal. If he was a high draft pick people wouldn’t expect him to struggle.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

A big step back?
First rookie since Malkin to put up 85 points. If he takes a step it will be forward not back. Kids the real deal. If he was a high draft pick people wouldn’t expect him to struggle.

Or, it is the fact that Tavares faced QoC in the 97th percentile and with no Tavares, Barzal will be going up against elite competition with not much surrounding him. They have no matchup centerman whatsoever. Add into the equation that he was in the 39th percentile in dzone starts, and there is a legitimate, even likely, case for regression.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

How many times in the past has someone who produced at an elite leveled regressed the following year? It's happened, obviously, but I'm not sure why it's assumed it will happen with Barzal just because Tavares is no longer around.

Tavares gone and a new system/coach is massive

Some Islanders fans make claims that Barzal faced top competition but its so untrue it hurts to read. Posting stats about what defensive pairings the guy faced for the last third of the season doesnt mean he faced top competition.

Next season Barzal will be opposing teams ONLY focus - that means top defensive pair and top defensive forward lines. And not only will he match against them but opposing teams will make sure these matchups get through, whereas with Tavares they had two great centers to worry about. Made the decision making... twice as hard.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

For reference, Tavares went from 54 points as a rookie, to 67 points as a sophomore, to 81 points in his third year. This, despite the fact teams got adjusted to him and he had to face the other team's top defense units.

If Tavares could do it without massive regression once the league got more tape on him, why is it such a stretch to think Barzal can handle it, too?

At no point in John Tavares' career was he ever as sheltered as Barzal was last season.