Mat Barzal WILL take a huge step back next season

[WetcoastOrca]

Or, it is the fact that Tavares faced QoC in the 97th percentile and with no Tavares, Barzal will be going up against elite competition with not much surrounding him. They have no matchup centerman whatsoever. Add into the equation that he was in the 39th percentile in dzone starts, and there is a legitimate, even likely, case for regression.

Seems unlikely. Barzal started out getting limited minutes and limited power play time and his scoring increased fairly significantly as the season went on. Had he got decent minutes from the start he’d probably have had over 90 points. This should help balance out any loss in points from extra attention. He was the biggest point getter on that team in the second half as Tavares tailed off.
Other teams already saw him as a huge scoring threat last year. He’s used to the attention.
85 point rookies historically since the lockout have been exceptional players

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think more often than not, elite play drivers don't regress. The players who regress are typically either players who simply had seasons above their capabilities, or players who aren't play drivers and need someone else to create the chances for them.

The only time you typically see a high end play driver regress is due to a serious injury that hampers them.

Agreed. Had Barzal been a top three pick I don’t think we’d be even having this conversation.
He was the player leading the team in the second half of the season. Not Tavares.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I agree with your other points about there being few examples of rookies regressing. Generally elite players get better, not worse.

But Tavares is a bad comparable, he was on a different level as a prospect and broke in the NHL in his D+1.

I don't think Barzal is going to regress talent wise or look any less elite, but I think I would comfortably take the under on him matching his rookie point totals.

Tavares' hype was on a different level, but in terms of how they played as rookies, Barzal was a vastly superior rookie to Tavares in his rookie year.

And the comparable is that both (now with Barzal) have to be the 1C on a team with no one to shelter them. Tavares handled it just fine, and IMO, so will Barzal.

 

[CodeE]

Some Islanders fans make claims that Barzal faced top competition but its so untrue it hurts to read. Posting stats about what defensive pairings the guy faced for the last third of the season doesnt mean he faced top competition.

Thinking "facing top defensive pairings" doesn't correlate with "facing top competition" is so untrue it hurts to read.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Thinking "facing top defensive pairings" doesn't correlate with "facing top competition" is so untrue it hurts to read.

News flash

theres a thing called matchups on offense too. I know the Islanders havent had one in over a few decades now but a shutdown line will be put against Barzal every game from now on

 

[CodeE]

News flash

theres a thing called matchups on offense too. I know the Islanders havent had one in over a few decades now but a shutdown line will be put against Barzal every game from now on

Are we really going back to the silly argument of "nobody tried to defend Barzal at all last season"?

The stats prove as the season wore on, teams deployed their top pairings onto Barzal, and he kept up his level of production. Yet despite altering their defensive strategy to account for Barzal's game with their defenseman, they made zero such effort with their forwards. Absolutely none whatsoever.

I assume you will not be providing any stats to back this up thesis, just the word of a Devils fan who likes to take childish shots at the Islanders? All righty then.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Are we really going back to the silly argument of "nobody tried to defend Barzal at all last season"?

The stats prove as the season wore on, teams deployed their top pairings onto Barzal, and he kept up his level of production. Yet despite altering their defensive strategy to account for Barzal's game with their defenseman, they made zero such effort with their forwards. Absolutely none whatsoever.

I assume you will not be providing any stats to back this up, just the word of a Devils fan who likes to take childish shots at the Islanders? All righty then.

Keep your fancy stats that you misintepret and have no real understanding of

Ill stick with reality where teams had to still focus on Tavares even when he wasnt on the ice and now Barzal is the only 'star' on the entire roster.

 

[winnipegger]

Barzal is the real deal. The archetype of the new modern star in the NHL. Ridiculous skating, edges, agility and hands. Can't hit him because he never moves in straight lines. Kuznetsov is the other one that comes to mind.

 

[Beautvillier]

teams had to still focus on Tavares even when he wasnt on the ice

what

 

[WetcoastOrca]

News flash

theres a thing called matchups on offense too. I know the Islanders havent had one in over a few decades now but a shutdown line will be put against Barzal every game from now on

If teams weren’t trying to shut down Barzal last year I question the intelligence of their coaching staff. He was more dangerous than Tavares in the second half.
Will he get more attention this year?
Probably. But he will also get top power play time and ice time from the beginning of the season which he didn’t get at the beginning of last year. It probably balances out.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

what

Tavares is more dangerous from the bench than Barzal is on the ice obviously.

 

[CodeE]

Keep your fancy stats that you misintepret and have no real understanding of

Ill stick with reality where teams had to still focus on Tavares even when he wasnt on the ice and now Barzal is the only 'star' on the entire roster.

As long as you're ignoring "fancy stats" to stick with the "reality" that exists inside your head, why even give Barzal 85 points? Let's just say Hischier scored 85 points in a Calder-winning season while Barzal scored a respectable 52 points last season and not let these silly stats or facts get in the way of our Barzal trashing.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

what

crazy concept I know

When the Islanders had Barzals line out, get this, the opposing team's coach had to make sure his team was prepared for when Tavares came out.

Its almost like.. matchups are a thing in hockey and why home ice advantage matters

 

[WetcoastOrca]

what

They even shadow him when he goes to the concession stand or washroom. He can strike from anywhere!

 

[CodeE]

crazy concept I know

When the Islanders had Barzals line out, get this, the opposing team's coach had to make sure his team was prepared for when Tavares came out.

Its almost like.. matchups are a thing in hockey and why home ice advantage matters

Except that didn't happen.

Much in the same way teams prepare for Pittsburgh by - wait for it - applying defensive pressure to both the Crosby and Malkin lines, once Barzal starting breaking out and making a name for himself, teams would prepare for the Islanders by - brace yourselves folks this is gonna be a shocker - applying defensive pressure to both the Tavares and Barzal lines.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Except that didn't happen.

Much in the same way teams prepare for Pittsburgh by - wait for it - applying defensive pressure to both the Crosby and Malkin lines, once Barzal starting breaking out and making a name for himself, teams would prepare for the Islanders by - brace yourselves folks this is gonna be a shocker - applying defensive pressure to both the Tavares and Barzal lines.

and now theres only one line that needs pressure and will get full focus

im glad we figured this out

 

[SI90]

I don’t even have the energy to chime in. This is hilarious.

 

[CodeE]

and now theres only one line that needs pressure and will get full focus

im glad we figured this out

Nobody is arguing the Barzal line will get the majority of defensive pressure moving forward.

If you'd like to win more easy arguments though, feel free to tell me grass is green or water is wet.

If you'd like to get back to the point that you're incredibly wrong and ignorant about:

Some Islanders fans make claims that Barzal faced top competition but its so untrue it hurts to read. Posting stats about what defensive pairings the guy faced for the last third of the season doesnt mean he faced top competition.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I can just hear the opposition coaching staffs talking to themselves before playing the Islanders this year.
Coach: “I just noticed this Barzal kid led the Islanders in scoring last year. I’m thinking we should maybe try to check him this year. Thoughts?”

 

[Beautvillier]

crazy concept I know

When the Islanders had Barzals line out, get this, the opposing team's coach had to make sure his team was prepared for when Tavares came out.

Its almost like.. matchups are a thing in hockey and why home ice advantage matters

so the same thing as when the opposing coach had to make sure his team was prepared for when barzal came out?

 

[lomiller1]

Or, it is the fact that Tavares faced QoC in the 97th percentile

?

There was nothing out of the ordinary with Tavares's QoC. If anything it was on the light side for a #1 C. It was a little tougher than the QoC Barzel faced, but not much.

 

[KPower]

70-75 points will be a great season with Tavares gone and Trotz behind the bench.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

70-75 points will be a great season with Tavares gone and Trotz behind the bench.

Agreed. Just a few more points than Matthews.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don’t even have the energy to chime in. This is hilarious.

Teams still won't be shadowing Barzal this season because they'll be resting for the next time they play Toronto and Tavares.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Teams still won't be shadowing Barzal this season because they'll be resting for the next time they play Toronto and Tavares.

And don’t forget they need to watch Tavares both on and off the ice. It’s exhausting!