Mat Barzal WILL take a huge step back next season

[dlawong]

If Barzal slipped that much would not Isles just increased the Jack Hughes lottery chance by a lot? It is not so bad if he has as set back year and come back in the 3rd like MacKinnon did. If he does not slip then it may be tougher for Isles to land another young top center in a very solid center talent draft year. Preferably finishing bottom 6 to guarantee landing one of the top 3 centres that they badly need to lead that 2nd line in 4 years.

 

[sabremike]

The only coach who could make Barzal a non factor last year was Doug Weight benching him as punishment if he made any type of minor mistake. The refusing to put him in a shootout because he tried to make a skilled play in an overtime and McDavid (only the best player on the planet) blew it up was the high water mark of that.

 

[SI90]

The only coach who could make Barzal a non factor last year was Doug Weight benching him as punishment if he made any type of minor mistake. The refusing to put him in a shootout because he tried to make a skilled play in an overtime and McDavid (only the best player on the planet) blew it up was the high water mark of that.

My father brings that up still to this day. Gets his blood boiled that weight essentially hurt the team by punishing Barzal benching him for shootout.
I always felt you have to pick and choose your battles. The last thing you want is a kid/player like Barzal playing tight in fear of making a “mistake”.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

My father brings that up still to this day. Gets his blood boiled that weight essentially hurt the team by punishing Barzal benching him for shootout.
I always felt you have to pick and choose your battles. The last thing you want is a kid/player like Barzal playing tight in fear of making a “mistake”.

I'm surprised Weight didn't bench players who attempted to play defense.

"Damn it, kid. That's not the system I taught you! Take a seat on that bench until you get this 'play defense' nonsense out of your head"

 

[BAM]

Agreed. Just a few more points than Matthews.

When you care more about the Leafs and their players than your own team...sad...

 

[boredmale]

Barzal will also be getting more O-zone starts. and will probably be the focus of the PP from now on. the kid's as confident as hell, and talented as hell. i think he is 10-20 forwards next year (points), and improves on his defensive game. even if he doesn't score as much, he absolutely dominates with his skating and possession.

I actually don't think offensive zone starts will make a difference for Barzal. Barzal is at his best racing through the neutral zone catching the defense off guard and making a pass. In a perfect world one hopes Barzal can increase his faceoff percentage and I would start him in the defensive zone more often.

To me this will probably be a case we will see his PP stats get better, his TOI get higher but points over 60 5 on 5 decrease

 

[bionic]

A new coach with a new system that will ask more defensive responsibility plus the loss of Tavaras all point to a lower point total from last year. But the kid is skilled AF so in reality its all just a guessing game at this point.

 

[buud]

I actually don't think offensive zone starts will make a difference for Barzal. Barzal is at his best racing through the neutral zone catching the defense off guard and making a pass. In a perfect world one hopes Barzal can increase his faceoff percentage and I would start him in the defensive zone more often.

To me this will probably be a case we will see his PP stats get better, his TOI get higher but points over 60 5 on 5 decrease

gotta disagree. all teams put their 1st lines out for a face-off in the O-zone. sure, Barzy is much more effective off the rush, but i don't see more O-zone starts as not making a difference. if he was just about speed, then yeah, set him up in the D-zone and get his teammates to slingshot him down the ice. but he is a possession monster. not only can he dipsy-doodle with the best of them, but the kid is exceptional at finding open players, and has a really good (under appreciated) shot.

i honestly think that losing JT 'may' help this team. especially how it all played out, with JT essentially stiffing the rest of the team, for personal gain.

instead of being an inspirational icon, with the hallways and rooms filled with pics of JT, he may turn into a key motivational figure, in a different way.

 

[boredmale]

i honestly think that losing JT 'may' help this team. especially how it all played out, with JT essentially stiffing the rest of the team, for personal gain.

I don't think losing Tavares helps, but I do think Trotz will make a big difference in a positive way(especially for the teams defense and goaltending)

 

[buud]

I don't think losing Tavares helps, but I do think Trotz will make a big difference in a positive way(especially for the teams defense and goaltending)

agreed 100%. losing JT's skill is a negative, but... chemistry is a funny thing. hard to place a value on intangibles, but i am a firm believer that they are very important.

 

[PWJunior]

agreed 100%. losing JT's skill is a negative, but... chemistry is a funny thing. hard to place a value on intangibles, but i am a firm believer that they are very important.

Losing a #1C for nothing is a huge loss. High end talent is hard to come by, the Isles now have a big hole to fill and will need to replace that talent somehow.

While I expect Barzal to continue his ascension into an elite #1C, the team around him is going to be relatively bad due to lack of talent. Effort won't be questioned and the better coaching will make the team more competitive, it's still going to be a rough season. The door is always open for a miracle Disney movie season when you have a talent like Barzal, but not likely.

 

[BillNy]

Counterpoint: nah.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

A new coach with a new system that will ask more defensive responsibility plus the loss of Tavaras all point to a lower point total from last year. But the kid is skilled AF so in reality its all just a guessing game at this point.

If Barzal improves defensively, is that really a step back though?

Teemu Selanne's best point total was his rookie year. Did Teemu just decline throughout his career?

 

[major major]

I doubt the harder competition will stop Barzal. Plenty of teams put their top shutdown units against him last year and it did no good. He's a one-man breakout so starting from defensive play is no problem for him.

I'd put him at around 90 points in a full season.

 

[LeafGrief]

?

There was nothing out of the ordinary with Tavares's QoC. If anything it was on the light side for a #1 C. It was a little tougher than the QoC Barzel faced, but not much.

Seriously? I don't think Barzal is going to regress, he's a freaking sick player, holy smokes, but your own examples clearly show the difference in competition. These graphs are absolutely terrible because they have no numbers and are there for visual interpretation. But even when you look at them, Tavares faced well above average time against #1 and #2 defensemen, average 2nd pairing time, and well below average third pairing time. Barzal faced below average time from #1's, above average time from the second pair, and average time from the third pair. The forwards are similar, Tavares was well above average against the top4 opposing forwards, while Barzal was average for #1's and below average for 2-4. Tavares was well below average in time against 8-12, while Barzal was above average against the #9th and 10th forwards. There are other little variances throughout, but those are the ones that jump out at me. When you add all those up, it is a huge difference in competition and to claim otherwise just means that you aren't interpreting the graphs correctly.

TOIQoC
Tavares - 29.77 (1st for Islanders forwards)
Barzal - 28.94 (5th for Islanders forwards)

Tavares was 12th in the league for forwards with 50+ games. Barzal sits closer to 200 with neighbours like Marner, Konecny, and Tyler Johnson.

Again, I don't think Barzal will regress, I think he's phenomenal, but bad analysis does no favours.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

1. He won’t have all those 5 point games next season.

2. He won’t play with Tavares on the PP anymore.

3. He’ll get tougher match ups.

4. Trotz will put him in a more defensive system.

He’ll do great to get 80 points next year.

 

[blinkman360]

The Kid Who Won The Calder will be fine.

 

[lomiller1]

Seriously? I don't think Barzal is going to regress, he's a freaking sick player, holy smokes, but your own examples clearly show the difference in competition.

It shows "differences" that amount to a few seconds a game against top players, IOW is shows QoC had negligible impact on their relative performance last year.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

1. He won’t have all those 5 point games next season.

2. He won’t play with Tavares on the PP anymore.

3. He’ll get tougher match ups.

4. Trotz will put him in a more defensive system.

He’ll do great to get 80 points next year.

1. He won’t get limited minutes at the beginning of the season.
2. He will be on the PP from day 1.
3. He’ll be the number one center from day one.
4. He’ll continue to get multiple point games.
5. Trotz will play him to his strength as an offensive player.

90 points is my prediction.

 

[major major]

Seriously? I don't think Barzal is going to regress, he's a freaking sick player, holy smokes, but your own examples clearly show the difference in competition. These graphs are absolutely terrible because they have no numbers and are there for visual interpretation. But even when you look at them, Tavares faced well above average time against #1 and #2 defensemen, average 2nd pairing time, and well below average third pairing time. Barzal faced below average time from #1's, above average time from the second pair, and average time from the third pair. The forwards are similar, Tavares was well above average against the top4 opposing forwards, while Barzal was average for #1's and below average for 2-4. Tavares was well below average in time against 8-12, while Barzal was above average against the #9th and 10th forwards. There are other little variances throughout, but those are the ones that jump out at me. When you add all those up, it is a huge difference in competition and to claim otherwise just means that you aren't interpreting the graphs correctly.

TOIQoC
Tavares - 29.77 (1st for Islanders forwards)
Barzal - 28.94 (5th for Islanders forwards)

Tavares was 12th in the league for forwards with 50+ games. Barzal sits closer to 200 with neighbours like Marner, Konecny, and Tyler Johnson.

Again, I don't think Barzal will regress, I think he's phenomenal, but bad analysis does no favours.

I'll admit my ignorance with QoC, but it looks like for most top players that there's little variance in QoC. How important is it really?

We've also yet to establish that Barzal's scoring rate is worse when the QoC is higher. By my viewings I didn't see him shutdown when he was focused on.

 

[major major]

1. He won’t have all those 5 point games next season.

2. He won’t play with Tavares on the PP anymore.

3. He’ll get tougher match ups.

4. Trotz will put him in a more defensive system.

He’ll do great to get 80 points next year.

1. Why? Maybe he'll have fewer zero point games too.

2. He actually scored a lot more at 5v5 than Tavares did, and didn't rely on PP scoring. Barzal actually has growth potential on the PP.

3. It's not like teams never tried to shut him down last year. They just failed at it.

4. Do you think he was just floating around the neutral zone all last year? Barzal actually stays pretty low in support of his D. Keeping him down low doesn't hurt him because it actually gives him more space to get to top speed.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

Whos the better centre going forward and why? Barzal, Eichel, Matthews, strome?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I'll admit my ignorance with QoC, but it looks like for most top players that there's little variance in QoC. How important is it really?

We've also yet to establish that Barzal's scoring rate is worse when the QoC is higher. By my viewings I didn't see him shutdown when he was focused on.

it's pretty undetermined exactly how important it is, although in my experience it does make a difference with most players. The general idea that playing well against 2nd rate competition is easier than replicating those results playing against the best players in the league does hold up though

 

[TheDoldrums]

Whos the better centre going forward and why? Barzal, Eichel, Matthews, strome?

strome ainec

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Whos the better centre going forward and why? Barzal, Eichel, Matthews, strome?

Too soon to say imo for the first three. I’d say Matthews has clearly been better than Eichel but Barzal just put up the best NHL season in terms of points of all of them. Matthews was on pace for a similar point total if he hadn’t been injured.
I think the consensus amongst most others though would be Matthews as Barzal has only had one season in the NHL. I don’t necessarily agree with that reasoning.