Movies: Marvel Cinematic Universe Discussion - Part 3

[Deadpool8812]

The Sony movies will likely suck again and the MCU has lost too many beloved characters recently to get away unscathed too.

Losing Iron Man, Captain America, and Spider-Man within a matter of months is going to hurt. I have severe doubts that the likes of Black Panther, Captain Marvel, Doctor Strange are going to be as successful doing the heavy lifting in the "team up" movies.

Getting Xmen and Deadpool will help

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Getting Xmen and Deadpool will help

Yep, I'm aware of the new IP they've added. But they lost a lot of established iconic characters who were perfectly cast and people had developed a history with in a matter of months.

That's not all wiped away because the MCU got some new toys to play with, and it's hard to imagine them hitting home runs like Downey Jr., Evans, and Holland again. I'm sure they'll keep trucking and making hundreds of millions of dollars, but the bloom's a bit off the rose. We've probably seen the pinnacle of the MCU.

 

[Thread The Needle]

Ummm… have you not watched the MCU movies? They have very much touched on this, especially in Far From Home

I agree to an extent, but I really liked it when all of those things would stack on top of each other at the same time (it's a personal preference). It gets me thinking "how the hell is he gonna get out of this?". Don't get me wrong, I like the movies, I just like the rougher Spider-Man world more. Also, no need to add in shit like the bolded.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Yep, I'm aware of the new IP they've added. But they lost a lot of established iconic characters who were perfectly cast and people had developed a history with in a matter of months.

That's not all wiped away because the MCU got some new toys to play with, and it's hard to imagine them hitting home runs like Downey Jr., Evans, and Holland again. I'm sure they'll keep trucking and making hundreds of millions of dollars, but the bloom's a bit off the rose. We've probably seen the pinnacle of the MCU.

I think a lot of it comes down to how well-received the next Wolverine is. I don’t think they’ll have a problem steering towards the next great threat 10 years from now (Galactus), but with the benefit of adding the X-Men and the Fantastic Four comes the burden of having to follow Hugh Jackman.

 

[xtra]

Quick question here - with the advent of Disney + what’s to stop Disney from doing a Spider-Man show. From everything I’ve read the streaming rights were never included in the deal as it wasn’t a consideration then.

Couldn’t Disney just do a Disney+ show for Spider-Man - making it like a 4 hour episodic show/movie?

 

[Mario_is_BACK!!]

Really good (long read) on the situation:

How The Marvel-Sony 'Spider-Man' Dispute Will Be Solved One Way Or Another [Updated]

 

[RandV]

Yep, I'm aware of the new IP they've added. But they lost a lot of established iconic characters who were perfectly cast and people had developed a history with in a matter of months.

That's not all wiped away because the MCU got some new toys to play with, and it's hard to imagine them hitting home runs like Downey Jr., Evans, and Holland again. I'm sure they'll keep trucking and making hundreds of millions of dollars, but the bloom's a bit off the rose. We've probably seen the pinnacle of the MCU.

I feel like you're not really appreciating what Marvel has built here. Like what discostu said, apart from a decline simply from being unable to top their own insane peak achievement I don't see why anything should be slowing down, especially for the reasons you're citing.

This is a unique entertainment setup where you have 2-3 loosely connected stand alone movies and every 3-4 years they combine together for one big spectacle. On their own none of these properties, Spiderman aside, was ever that well known. And from stand alone films of the big individual names you talk about, Ironman 2, Ironman 3, Captain America 1, Thor 1, and Thor 2 by MCU standards were nothing exceptional. Through phase 2 and 3 they added a bunch of new standalone movies without posting a single flop, and most importantly to the discussion here these were all done without the help of Downey Jr./Evans/Holland/etc.

The big spectacle is over but they've never slowed down on releasing quality stand alone films and there's no reason to think the new batch won't be as well in the same range that Ant-Man to Dr. Strange to Captain Marvel to Black Panther was. And the Avengers films are spaced far enough apart that once they're ready to put out another one people will be ready to come regardless of whether Ironman or Captain America are in it.

 

[discostu]

Really good (long read) on the situation:

How The Marvel-Sony 'Spider-Man' Dispute Will Be Solved One Way Or Another [Updated]

Interesting read. This part caught my eye though

If and when Sony winds up in a merger with a company like Netflix, Amazon, or Apple, the Spider-Man IP will revert back to Marvel

That seems to be a significant clause if true, as is the authors strong speculation that Sony will get bought out by one of the the streaming companies.

 

[Jussi]

Tom Holland has the Uncharted film under development with Sony right now with a supposed release date of December 2020.

You can't read too much into socially media follows, but man, that's one way for this to spin out of control for Sony, if it starts impacting their other projects.

Apparently Holland never followed Sony on Instagram at all..

The Uncharted film is without a director again by the way....

 

[Mario_is_BACK!!]

That seems to be a significant clause if true, as is the authors strong speculation that Sony will get bought out by one of the the streaming companies.

This isn’t the only article I’ve read that says as much, either.

 

[discostu]

With all of the discussion about the financial future of the MCU, I thought I'd try and lay out what my current expectations around the announced and speculated films. These are very early on, and there's probably a better sense of the financial outlooks on things as trailers are released and any hype builds. Still, I thought I'd share my thoughts at least, as I tend to talk a lot about the box office side around here.

Black Widow $300M domestic, $800M worldwide

This shouldn't be a big film for the studio, as it's a prequel on a lower tier avenger, but it still had enough going for it. One, being the first film of the next phase means you'll have audiences waiting for this film. Black Widow is still an original avenger after most of the others have left. Third, the release date of early May is a great one, as people expect to see a big Marvel movie in that slot. I think it opens pretty big a

The Eternals $225M domestic, $600M worldwide

This is probably the riskiest project the MCU has planned, and one where marketing and word of mouth will need to play a big role. This project is a big mystery though to general audiences, and if audiences decide they don't want to jump into a whole new set of characters, I can see this falling short of even these fairly tepid expectations for a Marvel film. Still, probably comfortably profitable. It mainly needs to beat well received to generate interest in the next phase.

Shang Chi $350M, $1B

I'm a little bullish on this one, as even though it's an unknown character, Marvel has found great success with big solo origin stories during the winter period. I'm assuming a strong worldwide tally as the Asian markets will respond positively, but the Chinese market is always hard to predict.

While the release date and a traditionally underrepresented demographic being profiled will draw parallels to Black Panther, I don't think that's a reasonable comparison. There was too many lightning in a bottle elements there, but this is a highly profitable film without that type of success. I also think that this feels like a very accessible superhero origin story, so its a safe bet in that regard. The Eternals being an alien race may get too weird for many, while this appears to be more grounded (note: I'm not familiar with the comics, AO I can be out to lunch here).

Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness - $350M domestic, $1B

We'll see where they go with the storylines leading up to this, but name multiverse suggests a lot of crossover. This may end up feeling a lot like an Avengers film. Centering on one of the least successful characters to date(based on box office) though limits its breakout, and the numbers here are probably the high end.

Thor: Love and Thunder $400M $1.2B

This is where I think Marvel has laid out a pretty safe strategy for themselves. If they do struggle with something of the other films, they'll likely be able to bring things back here. I think people loved the Waikiki take on the character and fans will comes out enthusiastically for this.

Other projects without confirmed release dates

I think GOTG3 and Black Panther 2 are safe bets for a billion dollars internationally and probably $400M domestically.

Captain Marvel 2 may not be as successful as the first one. It seemed to benefit from its role between the avengers films. I still think it's profitable, but it could struggle to get to $300M domestically unless they do something really interesting with it.

Whatever they do with Antman will probably land in the similar range as the previous ones.

Summary

I think Marvel will have no issue putting out a string of profitable films. This many potential billion dollar hits would be huge deal for any other studio. It lacks any obvious $2B films (or even $1.5B). But, I'd argue that the last two Avengers films were the only films to ever be safely predicted at that type of level.

All of this is before any Xmen or other Fox properties enter the picture, so Marvel has the ability to drive more interest of things stagnate.

 

[Pilky01]

Look at Tom Holland’s IG.

Something has gotten done. My thinking is they will announce a resolution at D23 and Tom was told to post a ‘teaser’ to get people speculating/freaking out.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

With all of the discussion about the financial future of the MCU, I thought I'd try and lay out what my current expectations around the announced and speculated films. These are very early on, and there's probably a better sense of the financial outlooks on things as trailers are released and any hype builds. Still, I thought I'd share my thoughts at least, as I tend to talk a lot about the box office side around here.

Black Widow $300M domestic, $800M worldwide

This shouldn't be a big film for the studio, as it's a prequel on a lower tier avenger, but it still had enough going for it. One, being the first film of the next phase means you'll have audiences waiting for this film. Black Widow is still an original avenger after most of the others have left. Third, the release date of early May is a great one, as people expect to see a big Marvel movie in that slot. I think it opens pretty big a

The Eternals $225M domestic, $600M worldwide

This is probably the riskiest project the MCU has planned, and one where marketing and word of mouth will need to play a big role. This project is a big mystery though to general audiences, and if audiences decide they don't want to jump into a whole new set of characters, I can see this falling short of even these fairly tepid expectations for a Marvel film. Still, probably comfortably profitable. It mainly needs to beat well received to generate interest in the next phase.

Shang Chi $350M, $1B

I'm a little bullish on this one, as even though it's an unknown character, Marvel has found great success with big solo origin stories during the winter period. I'm assuming a strong worldwide tally as the Asian markets will respond positively, but the Chinese market is always hard to predict.

While the release date and a traditionally underrepresented demographic being profiled will draw parallels to Black Panther, I don't think that's a reasonable comparison. There was too many lightning in a bottle elements there, but this is a highly profitable film without that type of success. I also think that this feels like a very accessible superhero origin story, so its a safe bet in that regard. The Eternals being an alien race may get too weird for many, while this appears to be more grounded (note: I'm not familiar with the comics, AO I can be out to lunch here).

Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness - $350M domestic, $1B

We'll see where they go with the storylines leading up to this, but name multiverse suggests a lot of crossover. This may end up feeling a lot like an Avengers film. Centering on one of the least successful characters to date(based on box office) though limits its breakout, and the numbers here are probably the high end.

Thor: Love and Thunder $400M $1.2B

This is where I think Marvel has laid out a pretty safe strategy for themselves. If they do struggle with something of the other films, they'll likely be able to bring things back here. I think people loved the Waikiki take on the character and fans will comes out enthusiastically for this.

Other projects without confirmed release dates

I think GOTG3 and Black Panther 2 are safe bets for a billion dollars internationally and probably $400M domestically.

Captain Marvel 2 may not be as successful as the first one. It seemed to benefit from its role between the avengers films. I still think it's profitable, but it could struggle to get to $300M domestically unless they do something really interesting with it.

Whatever they do with Antman will probably land in the similar range as the previous ones.

Summary

I think Marvel will have no issue putting out a string of profitable films. This many potential billion dollar hits would be huge deal for any other studio. It lacks any obvious $2B films (or even $1.5B). But, I'd argue that the last two Avengers films were the only films to ever be safely predicted at that type of level.

All of this is before any Xmen or other Fox properties enter the picture, so Marvel has the ability to drive more interest of things stagnate.

I think both Black Widow and Doctor Strange will be $100-$200M lower than what you show worldwide. That's not a bad thing, but I don't see Doctor Strange topping a billion especially. I know people are really starting to come around on him, but that's like a 47% increase from the original.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Look at Tom Holland’s IG.

Something has gotten done. My thinking is they will announce a resolution at D23 and Tom was told to post a ‘teaser’ to get people speculating/freaking out.

I’m not sold a deal is done, but that Instagram picture sure is intriguing given the circumstances..

 

[discostu]

I think both Black Widow and Doctor Strange will be $100-$200M lower than what you show worldwide. That's not a bad thing, but I don't see Doctor Strange topping a billion especially. I know people are really starting to come around on him, but that's like a 47% increase from the original.

It's admittedly an ambitious forecast, but I figure it's potentially similar to Winter Soldier - > Civil War type of transition. Doctor Strange has been showcased pretty well in the MCU since his debut and is more popular than he was the first film camera out.

If it's truly used as an opportunity to converge storylines, it may get viewed as a quasi-Avengers film. We know it will have Wanda, but they can bring in others like Hulk, Black Panther, if they choose. I feel this would ve the type of film that would do that.

 

[Jussi]

I’m not sold a deal is done, but that Instagram picture sure is intriguing given the circumstances..

What picture?

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

What picture?

Tom Holland has series of photos on Instagram with Robert Downey Jr. from a hiking trip that says "We did it Mr. Stark!"

I mean, it's most likely just a troll job by him knowing how crazy it would make everyone go, but I guess you never know. Just funny giving the timing!​

 

[discostu]

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I didn't know Disney bought Marvel for 4 billion in 2009. What a steal of a deal.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Shang Chi $350M, $1B

I'm a little bullish on this one, as even though it's an unknown character, Marvel has found great success with big solo origin stories during the winter period. I'm assuming a strong worldwide tally as the Asian markets will respond positively, but the Chinese market is always hard to predict.

Shang Chi could be the most lucrative of the bunch depending on popularity in the Chinese/Asian market.

 

[Jussi]

Marvel panel at D23 is on Saturday so if something has been developing, we'll know by then.

 

[phisherman]

Shang Chi could be the most lucrative of the bunch depending on popularity in the Chinese/Asian market.

Well so far it doesn't look that way.

China is angry about Marvel's first Asian superhero movie

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Well so far it doesn't look that way.

China is angry about Marvel's first Asian superhero movie

"China is angry" is based on reactions from a blog. That is definitely a good indication of how an entire country feels

If online reactions determined the success a movie, Captain Marvel would have made negative money.

 

[Jussi]

Well so far it doesn't look that way.

China is angry about Marvel's first Asian superhero movie

That's just clickbait headline, the reaction for the casting was met with positive reactions by a majority of fans there. Focusing on the minority voices does not improve the rep of the article or it's writer.

 

[phisherman]

That's just clickbait headline, the reaction for the casting was met with positive reactions by a majority of fans there. Focusing on the minority voices does not improve the rep of the article or it's writer.

Source?