Speculation: Marner or Nylander?

[nuck]

Right now the only guys with value are William and Matthews. Nobody wants Marner and his contract.

The thing is Mitch had that heavy front load payment as well so in real salary dollars he looks pretty good. If you are NJ or the Kings that has to look interesting because he is young enough to carry a rebuild.

 

[thewave]

The thing is Mitch had that heavy front load payment as well so in real salary dollars he looks pretty good. If you are NJ or the Kings that has to look interesting because he is young enough to carry a rebuild.

I hope you're right. I guess we're all just going to have to wait a little while to see what they do.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Right now the only guys with value are William and Matthews. Nobody wants Marner and his contract.

This is just blatantly wrong.

 

[nuck]

This could end up like the Rask and Pogge debacle. Marner is potentially 100+ point winger. There are not many of those around.

So long as he isn't dealt for the defensive version of Raycroft it will be fine, plus Pogge was hardly the goalie comp of Willie . Too much money was spent for two danglers with no physicality on a team that desperately lacks physicality. If the rest of their top 6 is cheap grinding plumbers AM and MM both fit very well but JT and Willie are $18M and they don't exactly play like Getzlaf and Kesler. With a $90M cap next year they could deal and spend their weaknesses away and keep the big 4 together. With a flat cap all they can do is tread water and hope that a whole bunch of really cheap talent in the form of Roberts, Mik, and Sandin comes to rescue them.

Now we aren't even talking about Andreas Johnsson bouncing back and we want to dump him because of his massive $3M salary. I posted to the below before about him and Matthews prior to the shadow of Willie replacing him. That bolded 55 game stretch was a bigger sample then his weak season this year. Maybe moving him is the next debacle as the club fails to have any value contracts.

'Re: Johnsson's rookie numbers he had 13:40 TOI a night and missed 9 games. Also he started the year on the 4th line scoring 3 points in his first 18 games with the lone assist being October 13 when he played under 9:00. I don't recall for sure but it may have been Marleau beside Matthews for the early part of the year.

After that slow start Johnsson had 40 pts in 55 games so it really was fairly impressive, albeit a limited sample (although a bigger sample than this year). Too bad he couldn't resume that level this season. It could be time to move him with the rookie shine still close or selling low and a bad move."

So what if the bolded is the actual AJ and last season was an anomaly? If having that potential 100pt winger prevents them from ever affording a balanced lineup, then maybe keeping the better player isn't the smartest move. And when he bends them over in 5 years on his next deal maybe they will remember it meant more to him to be paid like AM than it did to wear the Maple Leaf. Anyways, its not about the talent, its about the cap and what that third $11M salary prevents them from doing. Covid and the resulting flat cap chewed up Dubas' paper thin safety margin. Back to the lab again.

 

[thewave]

This is just blatantly wrong.

Then he should be the first to go IMHO. I hope you're right for that reason alone.

 

[Faltorvo]

This. It's nothing against Marner. But when your four highest players eat up half your cap, you are going to have flaws elsewhere in your roster. You have to look at ROI.

Curious question for Leaf fans. Forget St. Louis' depth up front, etc....This is a hypothetical. Let's say Pietrangelo is signed for five years at $9 million. They call the Leafs and offer him for Marner. Do you do the trade?

nope

i sign AP for 10 x7

and trade marner for real assets

 

[glue]

Few articles I’ve read all seem to be suggesting Dubas is very very high on Mitch so most likely it’s Willy between these 2.

Interesting note from Elliot Friedman on 31 thoughts:

31 Thoughts: How will Dubas handle Maple Leafs’ off-season? - Sportsnet.ca

The Maple Leafs have more flexibility than some realize. Nylander’s actual cash payments drop below his cap hit the next four seasons, Kasperi Kapanen’s for the next two. (My understanding of the post-signing no-trade promise to Nylander was that it was intended to be solely in the immediate aftermath of the agreement.)

 

[desperateblue]

I think that Marner contract is untradeable without retaining salary so I’m sure Willy is a goner.
I think robertson is a cheaper version of the same player anyway so I won’t lose sleep.

 

[Petrus]

So long as he isn't dealt for the defensive version of Raycroft it will be fine, plus Pogge was hardly the goalie comp of Willie . Too much money was spent for two danglers with no physicality on a team that desperately lacks physicality. If the rest of their top 6 is cheap grinding plumbers AM and MM both fit very well but JT and Willie are $18M and they don't exactly play like Getzlaf and Kesler. With a $90M cap next year they could deal and spend their weaknesses away and keep the big 4 together. With a flat cap all they can do is tread water and hope that a whole bunch of really cheap talent in the form of Roberts, Mik, and Sandin comes to rescue them.

Now we aren't even talking about Andreas Johnsson bouncing back and we want to dump him because of his massive $3M salary. I posted to the below before about him and Matthews prior to the shadow of Willie replacing him. That bolded 55 game stretch was a bigger sample then his weak season this year. Maybe moving him is the next debacle as the club fails to have any value contracts.

'Re: Johnsson's rookie numbers he had 13:40 TOI a night and missed 9 games. Also he started the year on the 4th line scoring 3 points in his first 18 games with the lone assist being October 13 when he played under 9:00. I don't recall for sure but it may have been Marleau beside Matthews for the early part of the year.

After that slow start Johnsson had 40 pts in 55 games so it really was fairly impressive, albeit a limited sample (although a bigger sample than this year). Too bad he couldn't resume that level this season. It could be time to move him with the rookie shine still close or selling low and a bad move."

So what if the bolded is the actual AJ and last season was an anomaly? If having that potential 100pt winger prevents them from ever affording a balanced lineup, then maybe keeping the better player isn't the smartest move. And when he bends them over in 5 years on his next deal maybe they will remember it meant more to him to be paid like AM than it did to wear the Maple Leaf. Anyways, its not about the talent, its about the cap and what that third $11M salary prevents them from doing. Covid and the resulting flat cap chewed up Dubas' paper thin safety margin. Back to the lab again.

Lets say we trade Johnson and Nylander but keep Marner.

This opens up 10m (Johnson + Nylander cap) vs 11m (Marner cap).

The salary difference in these two scenarios is not a whole lot.

I do not believe we need a true #1D. We need one or 2 complimentary defensive first RHD to play with Rielly or Muzz. This will not require a Marner trade to obtain.

 

[Faltorvo]

Lets say we trade Johnson and Nylander but keep Marner.

This opens up 10m (Johnson + Nylander cap) vs 11m (Marner cap).

The salary difference in these two scenarios is not a whole lot.

I do not believe we need a true #1D. We need one or 2 complimentary defensive first RHD to play with Rielly or Muzz. This will not require a Marner trade to obtain.

Marners last 2 POs 12 gp 2g 8p -5,,i can't say i am impressed for 11m per

 

[Lightsol]

Or traded Willie after the first missed regular season game. Your 3rd best forward is not irreplaceable.

No, no, no, you have to keep heartless wingers who don't want to take a damned hit and frequently just check out when it counts...

 

[Ulysses31]

Neither. both young. leafs have a good young roster. get kadri back.

Move AJ and maybe if Kap if they have to and maybe keefoot (if there is a 3c rep.) if leafs need to free space

 

[Gabriel426]

Lets say we trade Johnson and Nylander but keep Marner.

This opens up 10m (Johnson + Nylander cap) vs 11m (Marner cap).

The salary difference in these two scenarios is not a whole lot.

I do not believe we need a true #1D. We need one or 2 complimentary defensive first RHD to play with Rielly or Muzz. This will not require a Marner trade to obtain.

And if you trade Marner and AJ, thats 14mil.
You can sign Pietra and a solid mid 6 winger or another solid mid pairing Dman at 14mil.
Or
You trade both Willie and Marner, thats just under 19mil.
You go out and sign Toffolli(5.5mil), Pietra(10mil) and another solid mid pairing Dman.

Hyman-AM-Toffolli
Soup-JT-Robertson
AJ-Kerfoot-Kap
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza

Reilly-Pietra
Muzzin-Dman
Dermott-Holl

 

[Petrus]

And if you trade Marner and AJ, thats 14mil.
You can sign Pietra and a solid mid 6 winger or another solid mid pairing Dman at 14mil.
Or
You trade both Willie and Marner, thats just under 19mil.
You go out and sign Toffolli(5.5mil), Pietra(10mil) and another solid mid pairing Dman.

Hyman-AM-Toffolli
Soup-JT-Robertson
AJ-Kerfoot-Kap
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza

Reilly-Pietra
Muzzin-Dman
Dermott-Holl

What I am saying is that the decision to trade one of Marner and Nylander must balance the net gain and loss. I dont think it is quite as cut and dry as cap constraints created by their respective Salaries.

 

[TheGreatOne11]

Marner is my favourite player when he plays to his potential, having said that. He is the better player, will return the bigger asset and Nylabders contract will be better from a business standpoint and cap stand point compared to Marners.

Hate to say it but he makes a lot more sense to get rid of. If we even did. I hate that he is capable of so much but this season and playoffs showed I don't know if he's capable of controlling that. I love the guy, I hate talking like this but I am thoroughly disappointed in his performance. Wheres take over the game dive in front of snapshots to protect a lead Marner?

 

[IPS]

Already know full well how this is going down. This is the Leafs

Nylander will be the one traded and it will be the wrong move. He will score ~30 goals and 70-75 points with his new team. Marner will get around ~20 goals and 80-85 points with the Leafs. Better player, yes. 4M better? Not even f***ing close. I don't want to trash Marner like this because he's going to be a Leaf for a very long time, but I really believe the league is going to continue to figure him out. He's undersized and he can't shoot, he's made little progress with his shot since he's been in the league. Jackets closed off his passing and he was almost useless.

Nylander on the other hand - showed great strength on the puck this season and improved a lot as a goal scorer, scored a ton in the dirty areas. It's very believable that he can refine the accuracy on his shot and be an even better scorer. Also can become a tougher player.

The trade is going to come down to getting equivalent value back. There's no chance in hell you're getting equivalent value back on Mitch. There's a very solid chance you're getting equivalent value back on Willy. And that's the move that will be made.

The gap between Marner and Nylander closed a lot this year, and I suspect it will close even further with Willy traded to another team.

 

[Gabriel426]

What I am saying is that the decision to trade one of Marner and Nylander must balance the net gain and loss. I dont think it is quite as cut and dry as cap constraints created by their respective Salaries.

No doubt about it. They are not cap dump. Marner for all the talks about having a bad season is still having PPG and Willie is a 30 goals scorer and probably will be one for the remainder of his contract. They are good players and I don't think it will be a Hall for Larsson trade.
This is just an idea but if you look at a team like the Kings.
If the trade is Marner for Doughty at 50%. On the surface, it looks like a not so good deal for the Kings bc the cap hit will be 16.5mil but Kings only need to pay 13mil/yr, which is 2 mil more than Doughty but they get a 90pts winger playing with Carter and barring injuries the Marner contract will age much better than Doughty.
Leafs on the other hand will save 5.5mil of cap space and thats enough to sign someone like Tanev or if they are really aggressive, trade AJ and Kerfoot to free up another 7mil space and sign Pietra and Brassard for 3c.
The lineup will be
AJ-AM-Hyman
Soup-JT-Willie
Robertson-Brassard-Kap
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza

Reilly-Pietra
Muz-Doughty
Dermott-Holl

 

[IPS]

bold words from a Leaf fan, who would have thought the mighty offense of the Leafs would be out pointed by the lowly Blue Jackets. Leafs being shut out is not the goalies fault, yes he let in some softies, but that first goal last night wasn't on him, so if the Leaf don't score.................

Question, how much of the .980 sv% was the BJ's goalies or the lack of finish of the Leaf forwards? Guess will see in the coming rounds how good Columbus actually is at keeping the puck out of their net?

Well he just put on one of the best goalie performances of all time today

It will be very interesting how this develops.

 

[biotk]

This is just an idea but if you look at a team like the Kings.
If the trade is Marner for Doughty at 50%.

The Kings are not retaining 5.5M a year on Doughty for 7 years. Let's get serious.

 

[Gabriel426]

The Kings are not retaining 5.5M a year on Doughty for 7 years. Let's get serious.

Was an example to show retention might look bad in terms of cap, but in real dollars it is not as bad as some teams might take it.

 

[saffronleaf]

This is just blatantly wrong.

who would be able to take on that contract and what would they consider giving in return?

 

[6ix]

Last year I was saying let Marner sign an offersheet, get 4 1st rounders for him and sign Panarin instead.

Not sure if he was actually offer sheeted but could you imagine having Panarin and 4 1st rounders from probably a non contending team.

 

[Superstar]

Last year I was saying let Marner sign an offersheet, get 4 1st rounders for him and sign Panarin instead.

Not sure if he was actually offer sheeted but could you imagine having Panarin and 4 1st rounders from probably a non contending team.

No GM was giving four 1st rounders for Marner...he's not McDavid...wouldn't be surprised if he got offered something like what Bergevin offered for Aho...that's why we never heard of any leaks about dollar thrown around for those offersheets, because if some team heaped tons of money at Marner, we would hear about it to make Marner look good, like he did the Leafs a favour with signing a cheaper contract...there was a lot of hype as there always are in Leaf land... Dubas bit hard...nearly $11 million for a winger who hasn't scored a single goal in eleven or so post-season games (if we count these 5 games as post season)...did anyone watch Brayden Point play tonight? I swear he's shorter than Marner, but plays a foot taller.

 

[Faltorvo]

No doubt about it. They are not cap dump. Marner for all the talks about having a bad season is still having PPG and Willie is a 30 goals scorer and probably will be one for the remainder of his contract. They are good players and I don't think it will be a Hall for Larsson trade.
This is just an idea but if you look at a team like the Kings.
If the trade is Marner for Doughty at 50%. On the surface, it looks like a not so good deal for the Kings bc the cap hit will be 16.5mil but Kings only need to pay 13mil/yr, which is 2 mil more than Doughty but they get a 90pts winger playing with Carter and barring injuries the Marner contract will age much better than Doughty.
Leafs on the other hand will save 5.5mil of cap space and thats enough to sign someone like Tanev or if they are really aggressive, trade AJ and Kerfoot to free up another 7mil space and sign Pietra and Brassard for 3c.
The lineup will be
AJ-AM-Hyman
Soup-JT-Willie
Robertson-Brassard-Kap
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza

Reilly-Pietra
Muz-Doughty
Dermott-Holl

marner Byfield would be a solid start to their rebuild

 

[Gabriel426]

marner Byfield would be a solid start to their rebuild

I agree with you.
By the time their kids mature in a few yrs, Kopitar can still be very effective and Marner will be in his prime.