Speculation: Marner’s Deal

[RLF]

Yes a mistake that Chicago is regretting right now, and basically gave the rest of the NHL a blueprint on what not to do.

And what Marner's agent will use No? I would say other teams gave out other contracts in a way not to do things...hasn't stopped GM's or agents from doing it.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

The opportunity to pay down risk and avoid a show me season doesn't begin with an offer that is in line with Marner staying flat in points from last year total numbers. Marner demonstrated huge production increases in the later half of the year and it was known he would be pair with Tavares this year as well.
There was a real possibility that Marner could hit a 90 point season on his own and with Tavares, that possibility increases.
A 7.5MM offer was a slap in the face and showed no confidence.
Had Dubas stress tested the possibilities of Marner's projected point totals this year, he would have put Marner at 69 points (an absolute regression of his development curve and demonstrated production output in last half of year including playoffs) and 100 points (the demonstrated production output in last half of year including playoffs+ the Tavares effect).

100 points would have been a 10MM/year payday as of last summer all day long. Eichel @10MM and Draisaitl @ 8.5MM never came close to that number in the year their deals were negotiated.
A prudent offer would have been around 8.5MM over 8 years which was .5MM from Marner's ask. This puts the contract behind everyone and also mitigates an increased ask in a year from an increased salary cap and shifts in any market dynamics.
The lost opportunity is likely 2MM/year and 3 years of UFA to the leafs. I'd call that a catastrophic blunder.

To avoid a season like that they signed eichel before his RFA year to an 10x8 and he's probably worth it. Draisaitl's contract was a joke at the time of signing and now it looks good. All you're looking to do with a 10M contract for a winger that isn't Patrick Kane is get in cap hell. Marner's got sky high potential and I legitimately believe he can break 40 goals some seasons. Dubas has smart people around him, they're not gonna break the RFA winger market with Marner

 

[Nineteen67]

All 3 of those players should make more than Marner but Point will probably not since he plays for Tampa and there's no state tax in Florida.
Aho is a center and a selke candidate while being by far their best player so I wouldn't be surprised if he got 10x8 on his contract.
I think both Rantanen and Marner benefit from their surroundings - Marner more than Rantanen (still think Marner's better)
My guesses (for fun): Rantanen: 9x8, Point: 6.5x3, Aho 10x8, Marner 8.5x6

8.5 x 6 is an insult.

 

[Notsince67]

Didn't Toews and Kane get the same contract?

This Matthews money crap is a distraction. How is it that the reported ask from Marners camp was 9MM in the summer when the consensus was that Matthews would get 11 MM over 8?
Beyond that, there is little to indicate that an elite center gets paid significantly more than an elite forward.
Ovechkin got a better contract than Crosby 2 years earlier than Crosby signed for. You brought up Kane and Toews. Even Stamkos and Kucherov weren't considered too far off in skill at the time of their respective signings and Kuch makes more.

 

[Mess]

To avoid a season like that they signed eichel before his RFA year to an 10x8 and he's probably worth it. Draisaitl's contract was a joke at the time of signing and now it looks good. All you're looking to do with a 10M contract for a winger that isn't Patrick Kane is get in cap hell. Marner's got sky high potential and I legitimately believe he can break 40 goals some seasons. Dubas has smart people around him, they're not gonna break the RFA winger market with Marner

If Jack Eichel a #1 franchise centre gets 8 X $10 mil and if Leafs give Marner a winger the same $10 mil but on a shorter term 5-6 years leaving expensive UFA years on the cutting room floor, while Kucherov the highest scoring winger in the game gets 8 x $9.5 mil then it will be easily debated that Leafs did break the RFA market with this signing.

Patty Kane won the Conn Symthe leading the Hawks as playoff MVP to another Cup title before he got paid that as a reward on past performance.. Hopefully Marner leads Leafs to a Stanley Cup this year and is also the Conn Smythe winner and then that would warrant Patty Kane $$.

 

[Notsince67]

To avoid a season like that they signed eichel before his RFA year to an 10x8 and he's probably worth it. Draisaitl's contract was a joke at the time of signing and now it looks good. All you're looking to do with a 10M contract for a winger that isn't Patrick Kane is get in cap hell. Marner's got sky high potential and I legitimately believe he can break 40 goals some seasons. Dubas has smart people around him, they're not gonna break the RFA winger market with Marner

Kane's RFA contract cap adjusted in something like 9.6MM x 5 years. @ 100 points, Marner has produced at the exact level and there has been a shift towards paying RFA's more and UFA less than they use to be.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This Matthews money crap is a distraction. How is it that the reported ask from Marners camp was 9MM in the summer when the consensus was that Matthews would get 11 MM over 8?
Beyond that, there is little to indicate that an elite center gets paid significantly more than an elite forward.
Ovechkin got a better contract than Crosby 2 years earlier than Crosby signed for. You brought up Kane and Toews. Even Stamkos and Kucherov weren't considered too far off in skill at the time of their respective signings and Kuch makes more.

My problem, once again, is the lack of consistency. One of the many rationalizations for Matthews contract was the fact that he was a CENTER. It was said many many times, and pretty much nobody questioned it.

So now we’re at marner, and now it changes to “Welll... actually, there isn’t really evidence that centres make more...”

It feels like everything is spun a million times in every direction to rationalize leafs getting more.

Nyalnder vs Goal scorers? “Goals don’t matter more”
Matthews vs play makers? “Of COURSE goals matter more”.

Marner vs centres? “Winger, center, doesn’t matter”.
Matthews vs wingers? “Of COURSE centres make more.”

 

[Mess]

Kane's RFA contract cap adjusted in something like 9.6MM x 5 years. @ 100 points, Marner has produced at the exact level and there has been a shift towards paying RFA's more and UFA less than they use to be.

$10.5 mil X 8 years (all UFA) = $9.6 mil X 5 years

3 extra years at +$900k a season that seems awfully cheap to me.

If that is the case then Leafs would be foolish to give Marner $9.6 mil X 5 years, if they could get him for $10.5 mil X 8 years to match Kane.

 

[4thline]

You did indeed. Must have missed it. Good post. I honestly think that Dubas needs to avoid dragging the negotiation by waiting for other comparables. Momentum will help prevent the discussions from being stuck in the mud.
Dubas says "I'll wait for more evidence of how to pay you less
Ferris says "Ok...we'll wait to see what offersheets come in".

I'd only add this
if the floor is 9.5x5 (Kane)
and the ceiling is 11.325x5 (Matthews)
The split is a .925MM difference from floor to ceiling (10.4MM)
The practical expectation of a negotiated outcome for both sides can't be more that +-.5MM. Any side playing a principled battle would be taking tremendous risk for little gain.
Let's hope cooler head prevail and they stick the landing before Jul 1 to avoid furthering the brinkmanship that began last summer.

My hopeful expectation is 10.5-11 x6. I'd love to see better but I think he has the leverage and willingness to fight that I think rules it out.

My only prediction is that 95% of the RFA/ cap situation is settled before July 1, and that we have an eventful first day of the draft because of it.

 

[Notsince67]

If Jack Eichel a #1 franchise centre gets 8 X $10 mil and if Leafs give Marner a winger the same $10 mil but on a shorter term 5-6 years leaving expensive UFA years on the cutting room floor, while Kucherov the highest scoring winger in the game gets 8 x $9.5 mil then it will be easily debated that Leafs did break the RFA market with this signing.

Patty Kane won the Conn Symthe leading the Hawks as playoff MVP to another Cup title before he got paid that as a reward on past performance.. Hopefully Marner leads Leafs to a Stanley Cup this year and is also the Conn Smythe winner and then that would warrant Patty Kane $$.

It is a good point but one can argue that Marner has a steeper trajectory for the future

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

8.5 x 6 is an insult.

Matthews wanted 14x8. got 3.5 less than his ask.
Marner wants 11.5 on his contract? Well... Insult the guy for all I care he's gotta drop his price.

Kane's RFA contract cap adjusted in something like 9.6MM x 5 years. @ 100 points, Marner has produced at the exact level and there has been a shift towards paying RFA's more and UFA less than they use to be.

Kane's big contract came after winning 3 Stanley cups which allows for some more money to be paid. There is for sure a trend but how many UFA years are bought is also a factor. 6 years is a prime target.

If Jack Eichel a #1 franchise centre gets 8 X $10 mil and if Leafs give Marner a winger the same $10 mil but on a shorter term 5-6 years leaving expensive UFA years on the cutting room floor, while Kucherov the highest scoring winger in the game gets 8 x $9.5 mil then it will be easily debated that Leafs did break the RFA market with this signing.

Patty Kane won the Conn Symthe leading the Hawks as playoff MVP to another Cup title before he got paid that as a reward on past performance.. Hopefully Marner leads Leafs to a Stanley Cup this year and is also the Conn Smythe winner and then that would warrant Patty Kane $$.

Kuch is a different situation because of Florida's state tax rules. If he played in any other State or Province he'd be well above 9.5M. I think I'm really one of the very few people on this board that attributes his success more to the players around him this year compared to years prior. Guy's advanced metrics look near identical to Nylander's per 60 and it's a whole different ballpark with the salary discussed on this board. Marner's putting up points, great, I love it to no end. But unless Dubas is willing to break up 2 or 3 key pieces from the roster Marner isn't getting near his asking price.

 

[Notsince67]

My hopeful expectation is 10.5-11 x6. I'd love to see better but I think he has the leverage and willingness to fight that I think rules it out.

My only prediction is that 95% of the RFA/ cap situation is settled before July 1, and that we have an eventful first day of the draft because of it.

I think that everyone wants this behind them. Nobody will look good if this drags on

 

[4thline]

$10.5 mil X 8 years (all UFA) = $9.6 mil X 5 years

3 extra years at +$900k a season that seems awfully cheap to me.

If that is the case then Leafs would be foolish to give Marner $9.6 mil X 5 years, if they could get him for $10.5 mil X 8 years to match Kane.

The Kane comparison is his 11.09% x 5 year 2nd contract.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Marner is a Leaf for life.
Direct quote Mike Babcock.

He's said the same about Willy though, and people still think he'll be traded. I think Babs is absolutely right though, at least about Marner. There's a slight chance that Nylander gets traded. There's no chance that happens with Marner.

 

[Nineteen67]

Matthews wanted 14x8. got 3.5 less than his ask.
Marner wants 11.5 on his contract? Well... Insult the guy for all I care he's gotta drop his price.


Kane's big contract came after winning 3 Stanley cups which allows for some more money to be paid. There is for sure a trend but how many UFA years are bought is also a factor. 6 years is a prime target.


Kuch is a different situation because of Florida's state tax rules. If he played in any other State or Province he'd be well above 9.5M. I think I'm really one of the very few people on this board that attributes his success more to the players around him this year compared to years prior. Guy's advanced metrics look near identical to Nylander's per 60 and it's a whole different ballpark with the salary discussed on this board. Marner's putting up points, great, I love it to no end. But unless Dubas is willing to break up 2 or 3 key pieces from the roster Marner isn't getting near his asking price.

He doesn’t have to drop anything. He holds all the aces.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas will overpay.

This team isn't cup seeking like Boston and Tampa Bay. They are money seeking and they'll get what they want

 

[RLF]

Matthews wanted 14x8. got 3.5 less than his ask.
Marner wants 11.5 on his contract? Well... Insult the guy for all I care he's gotta drop his price.


Kane's big contract came after winning 3 Stanley cups which allows for some more money to be paid. There is for sure a trend but how many UFA years are bought is also a factor. 6 years is a prime target.


Kuch is a different situation because of Florida's state tax rules. If he played in any other State or Province he'd be well above 9.5M. I think I'm really one of the very few people on this board that attributes his success more to the players around him this year compared to years prior. Guy's advanced metrics look near identical to Nylander's per 60 and it's a whole different ballpark with the salary discussed on this board. Marner's putting up points, great, I love it to no end. But unless Dubas is willing to break up 2 or 3 key pieces from the roster Marner isn't getting near his asking price.

Matthews only got $3.5 less because the term dropped by 3 years. If it had of been the 8 years, given what we gave him for 5, it would work out to about $13-$14 per if it was 8 years since we would be buying 3 more UFA years. He really didn't take much less if any.

 

[Trapper]

He's said the same about Willy though, and people still think he'll be traded. I think Babs is absolutely right though, at least about Marner. There's a slight chance that Nylander gets traded. There's no chance that happens with Marner.

We will have to gauge the ask.
It’s great to have Marner or Nylander but you can’t leave yourself team poor.
It’s very rare that 1 player wins the Cup by themselves. You need a balanced team and cap committed accordingly between center/forward, D and G.

 

[Mess]

Marner wants 11.5 on his contract? Well... Insult the guy for all I care he's gotta drop his price.

Kane's big contract came after winning 3 Stanley cups which allows for some more money to be paid. There is for sure a trend but how many UFA years are bought is also a factor. 6 years is a prime target.

Marner's putting up points, great, I love it to no end. But unless Dubas is willing to break up 2 or 3 key pieces from the roster Marner isn't getting near his asking price.

I think once key depth players are being forced off the roster for cap casualty reasons over the JT + AM + MM contracts will be the time this will all truly sink in.

Its going to be so much more difficult after this year and after Marner's contract is official to ice the same cup competitive team that the Leafs have this season.

Those 3 big contracts and Leafs Cup aspirations are tied pretty closely together in the future because of the team the Leafs will be able to surround them with.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The Kane comparison is his 11.09% x 5 year 2nd contract.

So Rantanen and Aho will also make, at the very least, 9.5x5?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He doesn’t have to drop anything. He holds all the aces.

Wouldn’t Point, Aho, and Rantanen also hold all the aces? Is Marner going to make more than them?

 

[Nineteen67]

Wouldn’t Point, Aho, and Rantanen also hold all the aces? Is Marner going to make more than them?

In Toronto, absolutely.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In Toronto, absolutely.

Why?

 

[Nineteen67]

Why?

Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Dubas.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Dubas.

Oh, ok. I actually agree with you then.

Due to the horrible precedent set in previous contracts, Dubas is going to have to overpay Marner.

Couldn’t agree more.

I still don’t understand why most people on the leaf board are making excuses for these overpayments, as opposed to expressing their frustrations at them.