Speculation: Marner’s Deal

[Funk21]

So Stone just signed a 8x9.5 deal as a pending UFA with Vegas. Marner has come back down to Earth with play as of late but obviously is very important to this club. Both Stone and Kucherov both signing similar deals so have cooler heads prevailed and is this likely the range that he signs a long term deal for?

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[KE19]

A fair deal doesn't have him earning any more than $8.5-9m AAV over 8 years, but that isn't how things work here.

I don't have high expectations with Dubas on this one. Anything under $10m AAV over 5 years would be a win for me.

Yeah, I really have low expectations.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Well we paid nylander on how much better he will get not what he was actually worth at his signing. People have already stated in two years this deal will look great.

We paid Matthews as the second best player in the league because he will get better. Again peo0le have stated in 2 years this deal will look great.

Stone and kucherov are as good as they are going to be, so now we get to pay marner on how much better he will be.

Dubas has set this standard with the first two how can he change the rules now. And I hope he gives marner one of those we aren’t trading you guarantees like he already did.

You see it’s one thing to ask players to take a little discount but when you are a poor negotiator you have to decide what not to give, and he has shown no fortitude on this level.

 

[kb]

I'm going with $9 million. His numbers are definitely inflated by playing with Tavares. Even as such, he's playing at a 61 point pace over his last 24 games.....commonly referred around here as 'Nylander numbers'

The pace he was on to finish last year and start this year is definitely the anomaly, and not the norm.

 

[Confucius]

if Mitch ends up with 85 points i think he'll get his 9 x8. Mitch is a very good player but he is not Kucherov good yet. Maybe he never gets a 100 point season.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm going with $9 million. His numbers are definitely inflated by playing with Tavares. Even as such, he's playing at a 61 point pace over his last 24 games.....commonly referred around here as 'Nylander numbers'

The pace he was on to finish last year and start this year is definitely the anomaly, and not the norm.

this is cringeworthy

 

[BlueForever75]

Marner has been non-existent the past 2-3 weeks. His point totals have dropped.

He also doesn't seem like he's having any fun anymore. On the go ahead goal against Montreal that Hyman scored he looked not himself. Very serious.

Maybe this contract talk has gotten to him. Or maybe teams have figured him out. Or maybe he is flat out tired. Who knows. But one thing is for certain, hes going through a tough stretch right now.

2pts in 6 games is below his average.

 

[SprDaVE]

I've been saying for awhile that it will be between 8.5M and 10M depending on the term. Chances are it will be around 9M on a 5 year deal. 3-4 years 8.5M and 8 years would be 10M. Something along those lines, give or take 500k.

 

[ULF_55]

He's still on pace for 94 inflated points.

3 player had 100 points last year, 9 on pace this year.

Draisaitl's deal should be ceiling for Marner.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

I'm going with $9 million. His numbers are definitely inflated by playing with Tavares. Even as such, he's playing at a 61 point pace over his last 24 games.....commonly referred around here as 'Nylander numbers'

The pace he was on to finish last year and start this year is definitely the anomaly, and not the norm.

I wish Nylander was putting up Nylander numbers....

 

[BayStreetBully]

Less than Kucherov, please.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Can i be reminded why the Leafs match UFA money with RFAs ?

 

[ULF_55]

I wish Nylander was putting up Nylander numbers....

Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
?

 

[SprDaVE]

Can i be reminded why the Leafs match UFA money with RFAs ?

They aren't? At least the Leafs are not the only ones.

There are clear comparables for RFAs out there.

When you have elite and superstar 20-21 year old players, probably the best the Leafs have drafted/developed in 30 years and BY FAR the best Leafs team in the cap era, it's something new for Leaf fans to digest I guess.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

3-4 years 8.5M

3 year deal at 8.5 is a rip-off.

8x10 and make him captain.

 

[Nithoniniel]

It would be interesting to see a list of his comparables like the one we got for Nylander.

 

[SprDaVE]

3 year deal at 8.5 is a rip-off.

8x10 and make him captain.

Cap. Percentage. Age. Production. Compare. Agents.

 

[SprDaVE]

It would be interesting to see a list of his comparables like the one we got for Nylander.

The list is pretty short for Marner comparables. Patrick Kane seems to be the closest to me? First 2 seasons under a PPG then the third over a PPG (and 30 goals).

Goal scorers historically get paid more, which hurts Marner. But he's a 2-way beast for the most part, so maybe that plays into the negotiations. I don't know.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The idea that the Leafs draft talent and have a dominant team for years with cost controlled RFA talent is frankly dying. The Leafs are just another drop in the parity era NHL bucket.

The Leafs must be setting some record for paying huge dollars to players so quickly after they are drafted.

The Leafs are just another reason Lord Stanley is the hardest trophy in sports to win.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Cap. Percentage. Age. Production. Compare. Agents.

i'll take 9+ x 5 vs. 8.5 x 3. A 3 year deal is more like 7.5

 

[SprDaVE]

i'll take 9+ x 5 vs. 8.5 x 3.

Those are just what I think. I have no idea if that's what it will take. I think a 5/6 x 10.16M deal is also something I could see happening. I haven't really dove into the numbers for him that much... his end of season will play a lot into the number.

Ferris and his dad made it crystal clear they want to get paid and will likely seek top end comparable and cap percentage wise.

It's going to be interesting to say the least.

 

[Leaftors]

It would be interesting to see a list of his comparables like the one we got for Nylander.

i agree, i seen a tweet with kappy's recently as well

 

[hotpaws]

i'm getting a jump on the spinning , putting my "true fan" hat on and saying anything under the full 20% allowed regardless of term is a steal and Dubas would be a genius to get him signed to that deal

 

[Mess]

Marner's side offered Dubas 8 years @$9 mil in the summer and Dubas turned it down.

Now the asking $$ price has likely gone up and the term will go down. IMO

Even at $9.5 mil on an shorter term than 8 years, that will be > $2 mil less than Matthews ($11.634 mil) just got and that would be the floor that I believe Marner/agent would accept in direct comparison, potentially use offersheet leverage to drive up the ask and narrow that gap.

 

[WilliamNylander]

9 million is crazy talk.

It's going to start with a 7. Maybe low 8s if he signs for 8 years.

There are literally zero comparisons making 9+.