Prospect Info: Marlies and Prospects Discussion - 2018/19 Edition IV

[Mr Hockey]

Was a UFA. There is another like him in Gusev (current property of Vegas); when he his 26 or whatever he will become a UFA and be able to come over.

Vegas has quite the stash of prospects, they made out like bandits from that expansion draft

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Nope, he had him as a top 3 defender who projected like Dougie Hamilton and ranked him 10th overall. Sometime between the draft and his rankings last year he soured on him. Here's the write up he did for TSN.

https://www.tsn.ca/timothy-liljegren-defence-1.742574

People shouldn't kid themselves, Button does favors for people (or relies on pro-teams info) he like to make people look good to the public or owner. He always overly ranked Coyotes due to his relationship with Tim Bernhardt who got ousted this summer in favor of our old golf cart buddy. It is funny how Liljegren and (and none of Marks Picks) no London Knights are on the list. I'm not gonna dig too deep into it as a conspiracy theory, but maybe Mark pissed into Craig's coffee or something.

For whatever reason, it feels like Craig has undervalued Leafs players outside of Sandin and later Nylander in these rankings. Here is what he did in 2015, he had Willy at 16 (not terrible but too low) and had Domi one (shock a Coyotes prospect, also had Dvorak top 10), and the next year while he had Willy at 1, he put Marner behind Strome, Dvorak, Connor and Provorov (shocking two Coyotes prospect).

2015
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

2016
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

Button has been known to over value and under-value certain prospects.

I believe in 2014, he had Virtanen as a 2nd round pick (he went top 10).

 

[biotk]

Nope, he had him as a top 3 defender who projected like Dougie Hamilton and ranked him 10th overall. Sometime between the draft and his rankings last year he soured on him. Here's the write up he did for TSN.

https://www.tsn.ca/timothy-liljegren-defence-1.742574

That is around 7 weeks before the draft. Button did the Summer showcase a couple weeks after the draft and it was clear before Liljegren even stepped on the ice that he thought Liljegren was a dud.[/QUOTE]

 

[Mr Hockey]

Nope, he had him as a top 3 defender who projected like Dougie Hamilton and ranked him 10th overall. Sometime between the draft and his rankings last year he soured on him. Here's the write up he did for TSN.

https://www.tsn.ca/timothy-liljegren-defence-1.742574

People shouldn't kid themselves, Button does favors for people (or relies on pro-teams info) he like to make people look good to the public or owner. He always overly ranked Coyotes due to his relationship with Tim Bernhardt who got ousted this summer in favor of our old golf cart buddy. It is funny how Liljegren and (and none of Marks Picks) no London Knights are on the list. I'm not gonna dig too deep into it as a conspiracy theory, but maybe Mark pissed into Craig's coffee or something.

For whatever reason, it feels like Craig has undervalued Leafs players outside of Sandin and later Nylander in these rankings. Here is what he did in 2015, he had Willy at 16 (not terrible but too low) and had Domi one (shock a Coyotes prospect, also had Dvorak top 10), and the next year while he had Willy at 1, he put Marner behind Strome, Dvorak, Connor and Provorov (shocking two Coyotes prospect).

2015
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

2016
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

Prospects like Lilly will be constantly matched up with current and new incoming prospects, so even if a prospect (Lily) has a good season, he can still be pushed down the rankings because of the new younger prospects and older ones having a great year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hunter was better than what we had before. Dubas is inconclusive so far, I hope he does well.

To be fair, that should not really be taken as a compliment. We were arguably the worst drafting team before Hunter came, and while Hunter made us semi-respectable, he was far from the great scout he was made out to be. Not to mention that some, if not many, of the picks that he was getting credit for were not even his picks. They were picks from scouts that luckily the Leafs still have today, like Lilley, Vuori, Bergman, etc. There is a reason why Lilley quickly climbed the ladder despite being from multiple old regimes...

 

[SeaOfBlue]

May already be here, but McAdam sent down to the Growlers.

TBH, I can see Dubas shipping him in another AHL swap to give him a chance elsewhere. In a normal year, he would not be given that chance, but goalies are trash this year. There are some teams who may want to give him a shot to shore up their AHL depth, and with the Marlies having Hutchinson (if he's not traded again), Kaskisuo and Garteig on their depth chart, they do not need him.

Plus, since Bouthillier will be done by the end of the Q season, they may decide to sign him to an ATO and let him get his feet wet in the ECHL. Or maybe Scott plays down there if his season ends at the appropriate time. Either would combine with Garteig to form a pretty nice duo for their playoff run IMO.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Nope, he had him as a top 3 defender who projected like Dougie Hamilton and ranked him 10th overall. Sometime between the draft and his rankings last year he soured on him. Here's the write up he did for TSN.

https://www.tsn.ca/timothy-liljegren-defence-1.742574

People shouldn't kid themselves, Button does favors for people (or relies on pro-teams info) he like to make people look good to the public or owner. He always overly ranked Coyotes due to his relationship with Tim Bernhardt who got ousted this summer in favor of our old golf cart buddy. It is funny how Liljegren and (and none of Marks Picks) no London Knights are on the list. I'm not gonna dig too deep into it as a conspiracy theory, but maybe Mark pissed into Craig's coffee or something.

For whatever reason, it feels like Craig has undervalued Leafs players outside of Sandin and later Nylander in these rankings. Here is what he did in 2015, he had Willy at 16 (not terrible but too low) and had Domi one (shock a Coyotes prospect, also had Dvorak top 10), and the next year while he had Willy at 1, he put Marner behind Strome, Dvorak, Connor and Provorov (shocking two Coyotes prospect).

2015
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

2016
https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-30-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.183391

I think I see Liljegren as a #4 aka 2nd pairing guy. Not sure I see the upside of a top pair guy but a 2nd pair RHD is still pretty valuable and not bad at all to get out of the 17th pick.

To be fair, that should not really be taken as a compliment. We were arguably the worst drafting team before Hunter came, and while Hunter made us semi-respectable, he was far from the great scout he was made out to be. Not to mention that some, if not many, of the picks that he was getting credit for were not even his picks. They were picks from scouts that luckily the Leafs still have today, like Lilley, Vuori, Bergman, etc. There is a reason why Lilley quickly climbed the ladder despite being from multiple old regimes...

I'll still take semi-respectable over bad lol. I know what you're saying though. We just can't go backwards either.

Goal still is to grab 1-2 guys a draft to help the big club. I would still love to hit a home run pick with later round picks that can be a big part of the team like a top 6 forward or top 4 D.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'll still take semi-respectable over bad lol. I know what you're saying though. We just can't go backwards either.

Goal still is to grab 1-2 guys a draft to help the big club. I would still love to hit a home run pick with later round picks that can be a big part of the team like a top 6 forward or top 4 D.

Of course not. I am not a huge fan of Dubas' first draft, but for the time he was given, he did a respectable enough job. It was not the best draft in the world either. At the very least it would be on par for what Hunter could do in a full year, so I think we will be fine.

 

[biotk]

Speaking of Liljegren, there is a rumor that Lilly will be playing for the Growlers tomorrow (or today I guess - the 16th) as part of a conditioning stint post-injury.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Of course not. I am not a huge fan of Dubas' first draft, but for the time he was given, he did a respectable enough job. It was not the best draft in the world either. At the very least it would be on par for what Hunter could do in a full year, so I think we will be fine.

I take it you're referring to the most recent draft and not the one he and Hunter split? If so, I agree.

I wasn't sure on the Sandin pick but I will say he looks to be right. I liked the Kral pick.

I wasn't a giant fan of the other picks compared to what else is on the board. Minus rounds 6-7 where I didn't know the players.

Speaking of Liljegren, there is a rumor that Lilly will be playing for the Growlers tomorrow (or today I guess - the 16th) as part of a conditioning stint post-injury.

That would be surprising.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I take it you're referring to the most recent draft and not the one he and Hunter split? If so, I agree.

I wasn't sure on the Sandin pick but I will say he looks to be right. I liked the Kral pick.

I wasn't a giant fan of the other picks compared to what else is on the board. Minus rounds 6-7 where I didn't know the players.

Yes. I mean I know Dubas had some input on other drafts but a lot of the picks did not seem like Dubas picks to me. At least not the ones that turned out terribly. Grundstrom, McGregor and Brooks are really the only ones that really stand out as Dubas-type picks to me (even though Bergman was probably the one who flagged Grundstrom just like he did witih Sandin). None of them look too bad so far.

The Sandin and Kral picks were really the only ones I really liked too. I knew the Leafs would fall in love with Sandin's hockey IQ, because that is the quality they should be looking for in all of their prospects, and so far they have no regrets. I also like Holmberg even though I did not know about him before he was selected, but even at the draft it was an amazing trade (he moved up an entire round for nothing essentially...) and a great looking selection.

I'm going to give Dubas and Co. at least one or two more drafts to let them make a name for themselves. They've already earned a couple of nice early checkmarks with Sandin, Holmberg, and Kral in my books, but they still need to go a long way. I think at the very least, Dubas is going to trust his scouts and will rely on their expert opinions more when making decisions than Hunter did.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yes. I mean I know Dubas had some input on other drafts but a lot of the picks did not seem like Dubas picks to me. At least not the ones that turned out terribly. Grundstrom, McGregor and Brooks are really the only ones that really stand out as Dubas-type picks to me (even though Bergman was probably the one who flagged Grundstrom just like he did witih Sandin). None of them look too bad so far.

The Sandin and Kral picks were really the only ones I really liked too. I knew the Leafs would fall in love with Sandin's hockey IQ, because that is the quality they should be looking for in all of their prospects, and so far they have no regrets. I also like Holmberg even though I did not know about him before he was selected, but even at the draft it was an amazing trade (he moved up an entire round for nothing essentially...) and a great looking selection.

I'm going to give Dubas and Co. at least one or two more drafts to let them make a name for themselves. They've already earned a couple of nice early checkmarks with Sandin, Holmberg, and Kral in my books, but they still need to go a long way. I think at the very least, Dubas is going to trust his scouts and will rely on their expert opinions more when making decisions than Hunter did.

Round 1- He hit Sandin out of the park
Round 2 - He picked Durzi - I would have taken Addison, Olofsson, Morozov, Hallander, Wise
Round 3 - He picked SDA - I would have taken Shafigullin
Round 3 - He picked Stotts - I would have taken Gruden (I was reaching)
Round 4 - He picked Hollowell - I would have taken Hall, Utunen or Kral (I liked him a lot)
Round 5 - He picked Kral - I like it
Round 6 & 7 - No opinion, I only researched so much. Holmberg looks good so far.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes. I mean I know Dubas had some input on other drafts but a lot of the picks did not seem like Dubas picks to me. At least not the ones that turned out terribly. Grundstrom, McGregor and Brooks are really the only ones that really stand out as Dubas-type picks to me (even though Bergman was probably the one who flagged Grundstrom just like he did witih Sandin). None of them look too bad so far.

The Sandin and Kral picks were really the only ones I really liked too. I knew the Leafs would fall in love with Sandin's hockey IQ, because that is the quality they should be looking for in all of their prospects, and so far they have no regrets. I also like Holmberg even though I did not know about him before he was selected, but even at the draft it was an amazing trade (he moved up an entire round for nothing essentially...) and a great looking selection.

I'm going to give Dubas and Co. at least one or two more drafts to let them make a name for themselves. They've already earned a couple of nice early checkmarks with Sandin, Holmberg, and Kral in my books, but they still need to go a long way. I think at the very least, Dubas is going to trust his scouts and will rely on their expert opinions more when making decisions than Hunter did.

Grundstrom doesn't seem like a Dubas style pick at all. I don't really see McGregor as one either. People manage a staff, which is the director of scouting job, it is not like they hand a pick to Bergman in the second and say take whoever you want. They may do that occasionally later in the draft but not that high.

 

[93LEAFS]

That is around 7 weeks before the draft. Button did the Summer showcase a couple weeks after the draft and it was clear before Liljegren even stepped on the ice that he thought Liljegren was a dud.

Well, no games were played between those two dates. And, that isn't 7 weeks before the draft. All those things are done in time for the release of McKenzie's list, which is the week of the draft. Button's rankings come out 3 weeks before the draft.

A bunch of those pages are created and left blank on TSN's pages to eventually be filled in. I remember this from when it was leaked. So, while that page may have been created as a template on May 3rd, it wasn't released and filled out until McKenzie's list came out which was June 19th.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Round 1- He hit Sandin out of the park
Round 2 - He picked Durzi - I would have taken Addison, Olofsson, Morozov, Hallander, Wise
Round 3 - He picked SDA - I would have taken Shafigullin
Round 3 - He picked Stotts - I would have taken Gruden (I was reaching)
Round 4 - He picked Hollowell - I would have taken Hall, Utunen or Kral (I liked him a lot)
Round 5 - He picked Kral - I like it
Round 6 & 7 - No opinion, I only researched so much. Holmberg looks good so far.

Yeah, not bad. I had some different guys. Many of them are doing quite well. Some not too great. Most are doing better than the picks I did not like though (i.e. Durzi and Hollowell).

Oh well, at least it looks like all of them except Bouthillier (I still do not understand that pick with Scott and Woll both locking up the Marlies crease for the foreseeable future and Bouthillier only having 2 years of control) are at least going to get a kick at the Marlies can and go from there. That's all you can really hope for when you are drafting, and then just hoping one or two can shine and develop enough to make it to the Leafs full time.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Grundstrom doesn't seem like a Dubas style pick at all. I don't really see McGregor as one either. People manage a staff, which is the director of scouting job, it is not like they hand a pick to Bergman in the second and say take whoever you want. They may do that occasionally later in the draft but not that high.

McGregor was similar to Stotts IMO. I can see Dubas liking him more than Hunter, that is for sure.

I also know that is not how it works, but scouts will advocate for guys even early in the draft. Grundstrom is one that I think Bergman put on the radar, Hunter/Dubas saw at the WJC, and then liked when he dropped to them. Not like Bergman literally made the pick, but kind of a did a "scouting nudge" to get him noticed. Maybe both liked Grundstrom, but if only one of the two liked him, I put my money on Dubas liking him more than Hunter.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Yeah, not bad. I had some different guys. Many of them are doing quite well. Some not too great. Most are doing better than the picks I did not like though (i.e. Durzi and Hollowell).

Oh well, at least it looks like all of them except Bouthillier (I still do not understand that pick with Scott and Woll both locking up the Marlies crease for the foreseeable future and Bouthillier only having 2 years of control) are at least going to get a kick at the Marlies can and go from there. That's all you can really hope for when you are drafting, and then just hoping one or two can shine and develop enough to make it to the Leafs full time.

About the Bouthilier pick, at the time Scott was an unknown commodity. He was just coming off 2 really bad junior seasons. Though he was known to be toolsy he had yet to put it together consistently until this season. The Bouthilier pick only really look questionable in hindsight and still has the potential to turn out well depending on how his development goes from here on out.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yeah, not bad. I had some different guys. Many of them are doing quite well. Some not too great. Most are doing better than the picks I did not like though (i.e. Durzi and Hollowell).

Oh well, at least it looks like all of them except Bouthillier (I still do not understand that pick with Scott and Woll both locking up the Marlies crease for the foreseeable future and Bouthillier only having 2 years of control) are at least going to get a kick at the Marlies can and go from there. That's all you can really hope for when you are drafting, and then just hoping one or two can shine and develop enough to make it to the Leafs full time.

For later picks like 6th-7th round, I like the idea of NCAA/Russian picks because you get more time to work with. Obviously I would take them earlier too if they're good but if you're going to gamble later on, at least have a pick you can take your time with. That being said, Swedes have worked out real well for us in the later rounds too

 

[93LEAFS]

McGregor was similar to Stotts IMO. I can see Dubas liking him more than Hunter, that is for sure.

I also know that is not how it works, but scouts will advocate for guys even early in the draft. Grundstrom is one that I think Bergman put on the radar, Hunter/Dubas saw at the WJC, and then liked when he dropped to them. Not like Bergman literally made the pick, but kind of a did a "scouting nudge" to get him noticed. Maybe both liked Grundstrom, but if only one of the two liked him, I put my money on Dubas liking him more than Hunter.

I don't see how Grundstrom is more a Dubas pick. And, from everything I've heard since Lou arrived Hunter had pretty much full autonomy over the draft board. Hunter and Dubas didn't like each other, and stayed out of each other's domains (and even before that, it was Hunter's show). That means Hunter ran the draft, and Dubas ran analytics and the Marlies. Grundstrom is a north/south player with grinding abilities. Those aren't the players Dubas seems to be a fan of.

Bergman would have been the lead scout. But, Grundstrom entered the year as a known entity. He was at major events and was viewed as a top 45 to 60 pick. It wasn't really finding a diamond in the rough in a Swedish lower league.

 

[Knies iT]

Speaking of Liljegren, there is a rumor that Lilly will be playing for the Growlers tomorrow (or today I guess - the 16th) as part of a conditioning stint post-injury.

The game is against the Maine Mariners.

Liljegren, as well as a few other Marlies, were spotting heading to Boston with their gear/equipment.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

About the Bouthilier pick, at the time Scott was an unknown commodity. He was just coming off 2 really bad junior seasons. Though he was known to be toolsy he had yet to put it together consistently until this season. The Bouthilier pick only really look questionable in hindsight and still has the potential to turn out well depending on how his development goes from here on out.

I'm willing to bet a pretty penny that we were hoping for Jordan Kooy with that pick. Guy should have been taken way earlier but almost slipped to us before getting taken one pick before us by Vegas. He had to split time with Raaymakers which really hurt his draft stock.

At that point Dubas probably asked his scouts if anybody had a goaltender on their radar and went with the selection.

 

[SprDaVE]

Smart move. Get him back up to speed with a game tonight. Marlies don't play until Saturday.

 

[stickty111]

Grundstrom doesn't seem like a Dubas style pick at all. I don't really see McGregor as one either. People manage a staff, which is the director of scouting job, it is not like they hand a pick to Bergman in the second and say take whoever you want. They may do that occasionally later in the draft but not that high.

I think Grundstorm was a Hunter pick. We dont even know if Dubas had any control of the draft in 16 or 17, I dont think he had any kind of substantial input. Even 2015, Dubas only managed the trades.
There were probably some players Hunter and Dubas both liked, but Hunter was the man in charge.

 

[MyBudJT]

Didn't Hunter say that the only time he went to see Grundstrom play, he got kicked out of the game on a boarding penalty on his first shift??

Gotta think it was our European guys that did most of the scouting on this guy...

 

[Mr Hockey]

Thinking the scouts would inform Hunter of potential players/prospects and then Hunter checks them out and decides if they are worthy of a pick