Prospect Info: Marlies and Prospects Discussion - 2018/19 Edition IV

[DarkKnight]

Button's top 50 prospects is out, only one Leaf in there, Sandman at a respectable 26th. Projects him as potential top pair, number 2/3. Really liked him at world juniors too.

Seems a bit down on Lil, said there were thoughts he could be top pair but now see's him as a 4/5.

I have Sandin ahead as well, but that doesn't mean Lil isn't good, just Sandman has been so noticeable, looks a sure thing prospect. I do think Lil gets pumped a bit too much here, every pass is over stated and mistakes ignored, been that way since we "stole" him in the draft. That said, AGE is key here and he's progressing quite well.

Overall, I'd say our prospect pool is starting to look a bit thin, particularly top 9 talent. To be expected on one hand, but something to keep an eye on because we will need a steady stream of cheap players coming up to sustain things.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

If Liljegren wasn't hurt for the WJCs, Button would probably have him there. He seems to put a lot of stock into that tournament.

He has Troy Terry at #5, and Max Jones made the list. He must really like the Ducks.

Also Brannstrom is at #12; I don't think he's 40~ spots better than Liljegren.

There's a lot of other things wrong with that list but whatever.... Oh god the more I look at it, the worse it gets.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Button's top 50 prospects is out, only one Leaf in there, Sandman at a respectable 26th. Projects him as potential top pair, number 2/3. Really liked him at world juniors too.

Seems a bit down on Lil, said there were thoughts he could be top pair but now see's him as a 4/5.

I have Sandin ahead as well, but that doesn't mean Lil isn't good, just Sandman has been so noticeable, looks a sure thing prospect. I do think Lil gets pumped a bit too much here, every pass is over stated and mistakes ignored, been that way since we "stole" him in the draft. That said, AGE is key here and he's progressing quite well.

Overall, I'd say our prospect pool is starting to look a bit thin, particularly high end talent. To be expected on one hand, but something to keep an eye on because we will need a steady stream of cheap players coming up to sustain things.

There are only a few die-hard Lily is the best D'man in his draft year guys left.

 

[Pyromaniac]

There are only a few die-hard Lily is the best D'man in his draft year guys left.

There are also only a few who think he is 4-5 years away.

 

[Mr Hockey]

There are also only a few who think he is 4-5 years away.

Yes, I said he is 4-5 years away from being a top 4 NHL d'man from the draft, what's your point kid, next year will be his 3rd year? you guys in here keep bringing this up like its supposed to make me look bad or something lol

 

[DarkKnight]

Yes, I said he is 4-5 years away from being a top 4 NHL d'man from the draft, what's your point kid, next year will be his 3rd year? you guys keep bringing this up like its supposed to make me look bad or something lol

4 years to project to a top 4 looks reasonable. Dermott isn't even top 4 just yet, probably should be though

 

[Mr Hockey]

4 years to project to a top 4 looks reasonable. Dermott isn't even top 4 just yet, probably should be though

There are 3 guys in here that think it makes me look like a fool, they keep bringing it up all last season in here and this season as well lol. It's a tough call, dunno know if Travis can play top 4 every game yet.

 

[SprDaVE]

A lot of recency bias on Liljegren. I don't know how you can go from top pairing potential to a #4-5 defenseman in literally within a calendar year. So weird.

The WJCs makes some people see and say some really absurd things sometimes.

Now that we've graduated about 2-3 players almost every season since drafting Matthews, I think the prospect cupboards will fill back up if the Leafs draft well and draft enough times in the top 90. It's okay to spend picks to fix holes but they shouldn't be relying on trading picks and prospects every chance they get like past management used to do.

The draft will be as important as ever now.

 

[BertCorbeau]

A lot of recency bias on Liljegren. I don't know how you can go from top pairing potential to a #4-5 defenseman in literally within a calendar year. So weird.

The WJCs makes some people see and say some really absurd things sometimes.

Especially given Lily's been given top pairing minutes as a 19 y/o with the Marlies.

Nonetheless Button is going to Button. He likes to be contrarian with a lot of prospects.

 

[Knies iT]

A lot of recency bias on Liljegren. I don't know how you can go from top pairing potential to a #4-5 defenseman in literally within a calendar year. So weird.

The WJCs makes some people see and say some really absurd things sometimes.

Now that we've graduated about 2-3 players almost every season since drafting Matthews, I think the prospect cupboards will fill back up if the Leafs draft well and draft enough times in the top 90. It's okay to spend picks to fix holes but they shouldn't be relying on trading picks and prospects every chance they get like past management used to do.

The draft will be as important as ever now.

I don't think anyone realistically believed Liljegren had surefire top pair potential; it was always a generous ceiling. I think its very fair to say he projects as a puck moving 2nd pair D man with #3/#4 potential, which is slightly better than Button's assessment. I lean closer to a #4 than a #3 with him.

I think the souring on his potential has a lot to do with the stagnation of his numbers despite increased usage despite playing with a more offensive oriented D partner, while the other aspects of his game have developed quite slowly (if at all), and of course the recent injury.

I actually think he's a pretty safe prospect at this point, in that his skating/puck moving attributes will make him an NHLer in some capacity, at the very least. I definitely question his upside beyond the 2nd pair largely due to the same warts that hinder Gardiner and I question his motivation to improve those areas to the level required.

 

[stickty111]

Lilly has a 57 CF%, and has the highest corst relative on the D core. He also has the 3rd lowest OZ% among regular d man.
His potential should have stayed the same, or even increased.
Button is clueless and biased as he always was.

 

[bonjovi0308]

We wasted lots of our picks on giant ds under Hunter. I'm not sure if Bracco worths honorable mention as top 50 prospects, but him and SDA are mariner-lite.

 

[SprDaVE]

I don't think anyone realistically believed Liljegren had surefire top pair potential; it was always a generous ceiling. I think its very fair to say he projects as a puck moving 2nd pair D man with #3/#4 potential, which is slightly better than Button's assessment. I lean closer to a #4 than a #3 with him.

I think the souring on his potential has a lot to do with the stagnation of his numbers despite increased usage despite playing with a more offensive oriented D partner, while the other aspects of his game have developed quite slowly (if at all), and of course the recent injury.

I actually think he's a pretty safe prospect at this point, in that his skating/puck moving attributes will make him an NHLer in some capacity, at the very least. I definitely question his upside beyond the 2nd pair largely due to the same warts that hinder Gardiner and I question his motivation to improve those areas to the level required.

That's pretty fair overall. Although I don't think there's any reason to suspect his potential has lowered since last season, which was my original point. His role increased, his minutes increased and the quality of minutes have increased quite a bit and he's responded really well to that. Not easy to do as a teenager in the AHL as a defenseman. Had he not responded well to a big increase in role, I would have been a lot more skeptical of his NHL readiness and potential. And this is on a much weaker team than last season.

Either way, we got 2 darn good defensive prospects close to NHL ready I would say. That's a good thing, no matter what kind of ranking is out there.

Also, if Liljegren turns into Gardiner quality, I'd say that's a pretty good thing. Not sure why that's a negative at all.

 

[bonjovi0308]

Anyone know the story on Rasanen? Last I checked he had played in 6 games, which was a few months ago. EP still shows him at...6 games. Has he seriously been healthy scratched the entire season??

I think its better for your health just to scratch him off

 

[Mr Hockey]

We wasted lots of our picks on giant ds under Hunter. I'm not sure if Bracco worths honorable mention as top 50 prospects, but him and SDA are mariner-lite.

Middleton is in the AHL and has more points than Lilly, Rasanen is in the KHL with CHL eligibility, according to people in this thread Gordeev is good.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Lilly has a 57 CF%, and has the highest corst relative on the D core. He also has the 3rd lowest OZ% among regular d man.
His potential should have stayed the same, or even increased.
Button is clueless and biased as he always was.

Half the defenceman he ranked higher are playing in a weaker league, CHL/NCAA.
Liljegren is putting up decent totals in a hard league.

 

[zeke]

Lilly is well ahead of Dermott at the same age. So if you like Dermott, you should really, really like Lilly.

Lilly is also well ahead of a certain comparable I've always liked for him at the same age, Anton Stralman.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Half the defenceman he ranked higher are playing in a weaker league, CHL/NCAA.
Liljegren is putting up decent totals in a hard league.

It's not how prospects are judged, it's not about the better league, etc

 

[DoobieDubas]

It's not how prospects are judged, it's not about the better league, etc

actually..it is. Whats better 150 points in the ohl or 100 points in the beer league? cuz im killin it this year

 

[Mr Hockey]

actually..it is. Whats better 150 points in the ohl or 100 points in the beer league? cuz I'm killing it this year

you think just because a team decided to play Sandin in the AHL he is automatically better than the D picked before him playing in weaker leagues?

 

[Boutette]

Middleton is in the AHL and has more points than Lilly, Rasanen is in the KHL with CHL eligibility, according to people in this thread Gordeev is good.

Middleton is 20 years old. He has 10pts in 33 games.
Liljigren is 19 years old. He has 25pts in 64 games.

 

[DarkKnight]

Lilly is well ahead of Dermott at the same age. So if you like Dermott, you should really, really like Lilly.

Lilly is also well ahead of a certain comparable I've always liked for him at the same age, Anton Stralman.

Not really. Many expected Dermott to make the team his third year at camp, that's how good he was second year. I don't see where Lil is "ahead" at all. Dermott had a very strong first year in the AHL. That isn't a slight on Lil, but guys like you had a #freelil hashtag his first camp, when he made zero impact, the hype was over the top, so perhaps there's a lesson there.

He should push for a job next camp, if he does, bravo young man. He will have competition though, Sandman is a keeper, of that I'm certain.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Middleton is 20 years old. He has 10pts in 33 games.
Liljigren is 19 years old. He has 25pts in 64 games.

LOL ...

I wonder how many more points Middleton would have if he was on the PP, the guy is a beast!

 

[7even]

Lilly is well ahead of Dermott at the same age. So if you like Dermott, you should really, really like Lilly.

Lilly is also well ahead of a certain comparable I've always liked for him at the same age, Anton Stralman.

Stralman didn't have anything close to a normal development curve. Like saying Rielly's ahead of Keith at the same age; sounds nice, doesn't mean much.

 

[Boutette]

LOL ...

I wonder how many more points Middleton would have if he was on the PP, the guy is a beast!

Maybe as many points as Andrew Nielson, Maybe?