Mark Kelley’s weigh in on Top Draft Prospects

[Brother Espo]

Krebs feels like their trade down guy. If somebody comes in with a serious offer and they can slide back to 8-10 range and net a top 4 defenseman for the NHL roster.

You could be right. Of those slated to pick in the lower half of the lottery, which team(s) do you think would make an ideal trade partner for the Hawks with their #3 pick?

 

[Brother Espo]

... unless of course, the Blackhawks view Peyton Krebs in the same way that the Montreal Canadiens had viewed Jesperi Kotkaniemi last season, and decide to confidently hold on to their selection and boldly pick Krebs there at #3.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

You could be right. Of those slated to pick in the lower half of the lottery, which team(s) do you think would make an ideal trade partner for the Hawks with their #3 pick?

A team with two 1st seems ideal. Anaheim 9th + 20th and try to walk away with Krebs/Zegras/Caufield at 9 + York at 20.

 

[CallMeShaft]

... unless of course, the Blackhawks view Peyton Krebs in the same way that the Montreal Canadiens had viewed Jesperi Kotkaniemi last season, and decide to confidently hold on to their selection and boldly pick Krebs there at #3.

Kotkaniemi's stock had risen to a big enough point that he wasn't viewed as a leap at 3. Love him or hate him, but I believe (if I'm not mistaken) that Pronman had JK at 3rd before that draft.

Lowest I've seen Krebs listed in any ranking is 5th, with most rankings having him closer to 10. He's a much bigger reach for 3rd overall.

 

[HawksDub89]

Barrett Hayton would be more of a reach comp than JK

 

[Brother Espo]

A team with two 1st seems ideal. Anaheim 9th + 20th and try to walk away with Krebs/Zegras + York at 20.

That would allow the Hawks to still get a really talented forward prospect in a forward-heavy lottery and still possibly nab one of the many intriguing left-handed defencemen in the draft like Cam York. Even if York is taken, they could still get a shot at another LHD like Philip Broberg, Thomas Harley, Ville Heinola or Tobias Bjornfot. Who do you go with, if York is gone?

 

[Brother Espo]

Barrett Hayton would be more of a reach comp than JK

Agreed. Barret Hayton definitely seemed a reach at #5 last season. Considering the Coyotes already had Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome as centre prospects, it was a bit of a puzzler.

 

[hawksfan50]

I do not think I Kelley revealed any "leaning towards" anyone yet for our first rounder...wants to let process play out..including combine results and interviews plus the thrashing out of differing g opinions as each of our scouts weigh in in the pre-draft war room meetings to come.

I agree that IF the price is right to trade down 4-5 spots and still get a forward they would be pleased with plus maybe another first or another 2nd and 3rd (not necessarily both in this draft) then that move down price could justify moving g down a bit when the choice among almost equal candidates for a forward pick is so congested...

Obviously the rationale for a team prepared to pay such a price to get their coveted target at #3 would've a fear that player will not last to when they pick or that a team drafting after them will trade up with the Hawks to get their target.

Obviously this is less likely if their target was a forward because if the Hasks see it as an almost equal choice a.o g several forwards so should they be happy with whichever forward last to their original pick slot.

However if their target is Byram then it is easy to see a fear he either will not last to their pick or some team will jump over them to trade up with the Hawks to get him before they can select him...in that case if Byram is viewed by that team as their priority target they Must secure then the price they would pay would be quite high..

So which teams drafting after us would perhaps over pay to get Byram or I other words who desperately from#4 through #8 or even # 9 would pay us the kids he's ransom to get Byram?

Now it Avs really want Byram would they give us their own 1st if it was at#16 in addition to the#4 just to secure Byram or would they gamble we keepthe#3 and take a forward because no other team decided to pay a price good enough to trade up with us?

If Avs are prepared to be happy with a forward at#4 then this whole speculation with their target being g Byram is moit.

As for teams in the #5-9 spots...if any 1 of them wants Byram and fears another team among them would jump them to trade with Hawks to get him,this again drives the price up.

If all teams from#4thru #9 in round one are prepared to just accept fate and settle for whoever' drafts Byram and be happy instead with the forward they get I stead then there is no trade market for Hawks to consider trading g down those 4-5 spots...

And if that is the case then Byram is not really that clear BPA coveted piece at#3 anyway...If he is that special as the best dman in this class then one expects some team from 4 thru9 that wants to add THE top dman prize of this draft to their stable Must be prepared to pay a steep price to ensure they get him.












K

 

[TheDachKnight]

Agreed. Barret Hayton definitely seemed a reach at #5 last season. Considering the Coyotes already had Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome as centre prospects, it was a bit of a puzzler.

Keller plays wing and Strome was playing 3rd/4th line. Hayton was definitely a reach but they needed a C.

 

[Brother Espo]

Keller plays wing and Strome was playing 3rd/4th line. Hayton was definitely a reach but they needed a C.

Fair point.

 

[AmericanDream]

Kelley can say whatever he likes, there is no secret that Hughes and Kakko are going 1-2...he can gush over the rest and likely is, we have no cards to play as we get the pick of the litter...he obviously likes a handful of names and rightfully so..he doesn't need to come out and say who they like the best, but they know who will be there to draft at #3 and the reality of it is setting in...in a good way.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I do not think I Kelley revealed any "leaning towards" anyone yet for our first rounder...wants to let process play out..including combine results and interviews plus the thrashing out of differing g opinions as each of our scouts weigh in in the pre-draft war room meetings to come.

I agree that IF the price is right to trade down 4-5 spots and still get a forward they would be pleased with plus maybe another first or another 2nd and 3rd (not necessarily both in this draft) then that move down price could justify moving g down a bit when the choice among almost equal candidates for a forward pick is so congested...

Obviously the rationale for a team prepared to pay such a price to get their coveted target at #3 would've a fear that player will not last to when they pick or that a team drafting after them will trade up with the Hawks to get their target.

Obviously this is less likely if their target was a forward because if the Hasks see it as an almost equal choice a.o g several forwards so should they be happy with whichever forward last to their original pick slot.

However if their target is Byram then it is easy to see a fear he either will not last to their pick or some team will jump over them to trade up with the Hawks to get him before they can select him...in that case if Byram is viewed by that team as their priority target they Must secure then the price they would pay would be quite high..

So which teams drafting after us would perhaps over pay to get Byram or I other words who desperately from#4 through #8 or even # 9 would pay us the kids he's ransom to get Byram?

Now it Avs really want Byram would they give us their own 1st if it was at#16 in addition to the#4 just to secure Byram or would they gamble we keepthe#3 and take a forward because no other team decided to pay a price good enough to trade up with us?

If Avs are prepared to be happy with a forward at#4 then this whole speculation with their target being g Byram is moit.

As for teams in the #5-9 spots...if any 1 of them wants Byram and fears another team among them would jump them to trade with Hawks to get him,this again drives the price up.

If all teams from#4thru #9 in round one are prepared to just accept fate and settle for whoever' drafts Byram and be happy instead with the forward they get I stead then there is no trade market for Hawks to consider trading g down those 4-5 spots...

And if that is the case then Byram is not really that clear BPA coveted piece at#3 anyway...If he is that special as the best dman in this class then one expects some team from 4 thru9 that wants to add THE top dman prize of this draft to their stable Must be prepared to pay a steep price to ensure they get him.












K

Agree with some of fofty post here...














K

 

[TheDachKnight]

Agree with some of fofty post here...














K

And in true Fiddy spirit, you misspelled Fifty.

 

[Brother Espo]

Kelley can say whatever he likes, there is no secret that Hughes and Kakko are going 1-2...he can gush over the rest and likely is, we have no cards to play as we get the pick of the litter...he obviously likes a handful of names and rightfully so..he doesn't need to come out and say who they like the best, but they know who will be there to draft at #3 and the reality of it is setting in...in a good way.

While Kelley has gushed over some of the other prospects, he was pretty explicit during the podcast, about Hughes and Kakko going 1-2, saying:

“Well, I think you would have to agree with most people that when you look at the body of work over the year, um I think Jack and Kakko, uh, Kaapo, they stand out. Um, but I think for us in doing our work and doing our due diligence, uh, we can’t make any assumptions, so we have to run every scenario there is.”

 

[Brother Espo]

I do not think I Kelley revealed any "leaning towards" anyone yet for our first rounder...wants to let process play out..including combine results and interviews plus the thrashing out of differing g opinions as each of our scouts weigh in in the pre-draft war room meetings to come.

I agree that IF the price is right to trade down 4-5 spots and still get a forward they would be pleased with plus maybe another first or another 2nd and 3rd (not necessarily both in this draft) then that move down price could justify moving g down a bit when the choice among almost equal candidates for a forward pick is so congested...

Obviously the rationale for a team prepared to pay such a price to get their coveted target at #3 would've a fear that player will not last to when they pick or that a team drafting after them will trade up with the Hawks to get their target.

Obviously this is less likely if their target was a forward because if the Hasks see it as an almost equal choice a.o g several forwards so should they be happy with whichever forward last to their original pick slot.

However if their target is Byram then it is easy to see a fear he either will not last to their pick or some team will jump over them to trade up with the Hawks to get him before they can select him...in that case if Byram is viewed by that team as their priority target they Must secure then the price they would pay would be quite high..

So which teams drafting after us would perhaps over pay to get Byram or I other words who desperately from#4 through #8 or even # 9 would pay us the kids he's ransom to get Byram?

Now it Avs really want Byram would they give us their own 1st if it was at#16 in addition to the#4 just to secure Byram or would they gamble we keepthe#3 and take a forward because no other team decided to pay a price good enough to trade up with us?

If Avs are prepared to be happy with a forward at#4 then this whole speculation with their target being g Byram is moit.

As for teams in the #5-9 spots...if any 1 of them wants Byram and fears another team among them would jump them to trade with Hawks to get him,this again drives the price up.

If all teams from#4thru #9 in round one are prepared to just accept fate and settle for whoever' drafts Byram and be happy instead with the forward they get I stead then there is no trade market for Hawks to consider trading g down those 4-5 spots...

And if that is the case then Byram is not really that clear BPA coveted piece at#3 anyway...If he is that special as the best dman in this class then one expects some team from 4 thru9 that wants to add THE top dman prize of this draft to their stable Must be prepared to pay a steep price to ensure they get him.












K

Very thoughtful reply, ‘hawksfan50’!

You mentioned that you do not believe that Kelley has ‘“revealed any “leaning towards” anyone yet for our first rounder,”’ but is it not possible that he has revealed a ‘leaning away from’ certain prospects? Based on comments he’s recently made to both the Chicago Tribune and here in this podcast, I think we can get a sense of who he and Hawks’ scouts view as not favourable at #3. From there we can begin a process of elimination.

Good points on the whole though, and as ‘Toews2Bickell’ had also raised, maybe it will be worthwhile for the Hawks to explore a trade down by 4-5 spots, still acquire a top young forward prospect and in addition, another prospect or draft pick. With this year’s lottery being as loaded as it is, it might be worthwhile for the Hawks to consider this option and continue to add to and build-up their stable of prospects.

During the interview, Mark Kelley was asked if he sees a large drop-off in talent between 1-2 and 3-10. He responded:

“No, no I think, I think you see eh uh, by the time we have a board built to ten, I think there will be a um, there will be stairs of a ladder coming down in talent but I don’t think y’know, what you’re talking about, is there a significant fall-off from one number to the next? No.”

If this is the case and the Hawks don’t view 3-10 as being too wide in disparity, a trade down could make sense.

 

[crazyhawk]

It all comes down to who they covet .. and whether they feel he will be available a little later.
Given the Arizona factor one can never be too sure!
I say still go with Byram.

 

[LDF]

While Kelley has gushed over some of the other prospects, he was pretty explicit during the podcast, about Hughes and Kakko going 1-2, saying:

“Well, I think you would have to agree with most people that when you look at the body of work over the year, um I think Jack and Kakko, uh, Kaapo, they stand out. Um, but I think for us in doing our work and doing our due diligence, uh, we can’t make any assumptions, so we have to run every scenario there is.”

you make a point i am just wondering if we the fan are over valuing Byram ....... some mock has him late in the top 10 or in the high teens.

 

[LDF]

Kelley can say whatever he likes, there is no secret that Hughes and Kakko are going 1-2...he can gush over the rest and likely is, we have no cards to play as we get the pick of the litter...he obviously likes a handful of names and rightfully so..he doesn't need to come out and say who they like the best, but they know who will be there to draft at #3 and the reality of it is setting in...in a good way.

i just wish he and the Bhawks can pick up extra pick in the 3-12 range.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

That would allow the Hawks to still get a really talented forward prospect in a forward-heavy lottery and still possibly nab one of the many intriguing left-handed defencemen in the draft like Cam York. Even if York is taken, they could still get a shot at another LHD like Philip Broberg, Thomas Harley, Ville Heinola or Tobias Bjornfot. Who do you go with, if York is gone?

I don’t know enough to say but to walk away with a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman from this draft would do a lot of good for the system depth wise. That said I think I prefer to just take Byram. The opportunity to potentially replace Keith is just too good to pass up if Byram is the real deal. This team knows how to find forwards so not worried about their ability to find ways to continue replenishing the depth if they go Byram at #3.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Very thoughtful reply, ‘hawksfan50’!

You mentioned that you do not believe that Kelley has ‘“revealed any “leaning towards” anyone yet for our first rounder,”’ but is it not possible that he has revealed a ‘leaning away from’ certain prospects? Based on comments he’s recently made to both the Chicago Tribune and here in this podcast, I think we can get a sense of who he and Hawks’ scouts view as not favourable at #3. From there we can begin a process of elimination.

Good points on the whole though, and as ‘Toews2Bickell’ had also raised, maybe it will be worthwhile for the Hawks to explore a trade down by 4-5 spots, still acquire a top young forward prospect and in addition, another prospect or draft pick. With this year’s lottery being as loaded as it is, it might be worthwhile for the Hawks to consider this option and continue to add to and build-up their stable of prospects.

During the interview, Mark Kelley was asked if he sees a large drop-off in talent between 1-2 and 3-10. He responded:

“No, no I think, I think you see eh uh, by the time we have a board built to ten, I think there will be a um, there will be stairs of a ladder coming down in talent but I don’t think y’know, what you’re talking about, is there a significant fall-off from one number to the next? No.”

If this is the case and the Hawks don’t view 3-10 as being too wide in disparity, a trade down could make sense.

I thought what he had to say on Podkolzin and Cozen were not that favorable as far as them selecting either one. Podkolzin he used the term “would be” to describe what type of player he is...I took that as he would be a two way player yada yada but he’s staying in Russia. And the Cozens description just screamed meh to me. “He’s fast and he plays inside”. Thats about as vanilla as it gets...

 

[Brother Espo]

^ Process of elimination!

 

[Brother Espo]

I don’t know enough to say but to walk away with a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman from this draft would do a lot of good for the system depth wise. That said I think I prefer to just take Byram. The opportunity to potentially replace Keith is just too good to pass up if Byram is the real deal. This team knows how to find forwards so not worried about their ability to find ways to continue replenishing the depth if they go Byram at #3.

The Hawks have traded away too many picks and prospects in recent years, which has left their depth chart thin and their stable weak. The temptation to add two lower picks for one higher pick would be strong here... but at what point does quantity surpass quality?

There is probably a greater assurance that the Hawks will get quality if they decide to retain the #3 pick. Will it be a forward or a defenceman? I lean toward it being a forward.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

The Hawks have traded away too many picks and prospects in recent years, which has left their depth chart thin and their stable weak. The temptation to add two lower picks for one higher pick would be strong here... but at one point does quantity surpass quality?

There is probably a greater assurance that the Hawks will get quality if they decide to retain the #3 pick. Will it be a forward or a defenceman?

If they feel Byram is a legit #1 defenseman with upside to be a franchise cornerstone then thats something they cant afford to pass on to move back. If they think Byram is more of a 2-3 and there's concerns about Turcotte's health and the difference between him and Zegras/Boldy/Caufield is not much, then it might be worth it to add a mid to late 1st to try to snag a defenseman that might not have Byram's upside of a #2, but maybe a very good #4. Again, this is in the scenario they don't see Byram as a #1. The kid looks like the real deal. It's him or Turcotte most likely.

 

[Brother Espo]

^ Judging by how both Turcotte and Byram have been described, it seems the Hawks view them both as future potential #1 players in their designated positions. It’s going to be a tough call!

Kelley on Turcotte: “You just know what you’re going to get. You can see him playing with your top line. You can put him out there at the end of the game to shut down (the opponent’s) top center.”

Kelley on Byram: “He’s had an outstanding year... he’s really been outstanding... His playoffs have been outstanding... he’s a dynamic player that effects the outcome of the game.”

 

[Brother Espo]

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