Mark Kelley’s weigh in on Top Draft Prospects

[Brother Espo]

you make a point i am just wondering if we the fan are over valuing Byram ....... some mock has him late in the top 10 or in the high teens.

Bowen Byram seems to be highly valued by the Blackhawks and if they elect to go with a defenceman at #3, it will be him.

However, I am thinking that it will end up being a forward and for good reason.

Asked whether the Hawks will pick BPA at #3, Kelley said: “I think even if you look back to um, y’know, the past two drafts, I don’t think we went in there saying, um, we’re going to draft a defenceman with our first pick and a defenceman with our second pick and certainly that happened with Henri and then with Ian and then last year, going in, probably, um y’know, organizational, Stan and I talked and we said, ideally we’d like to come out of the first round with a forward and a defenceman.”

This is the year of the forward like last year was the year of the defenceman. The Hawks are lacking blue chip forward talent in their system, unlike defencemen, and there are clearly several high-end forwards of which to choose from in this year’s lottery. For this reason, I think they will end up going with a forward with this year’s 1st round pick. A center with ‘top line’ potential fits their line of thinking, I’d wager!

 

[Kevin Musto]

Bowen Byram seems to be highly valued by the Blackhawks and if they elect to go with a defenceman at #3, it will be him.

However, I am thinking that it will end up being a forward and for good reason.

Asked whether the Hawks will pick BPA at #3, Kelley said: “I think even if you look back to um, y’know, the past two drafts, I don’t think we went in there saying, um, we’re going to draft a defenceman with our first pick and a defenceman with our second pick and certainly that happened with Henri and then with Ian and then last year, going in, probably, um y’know, organizational, Stan and I talked and we said, ideally we’d like to come out of the first round with a forward and a defenceman.”

This is the year of the forward like last year was the year of the defenceman. The Hawks are lacking blue chip forward talent in their system, unlike defencemen, and there are clearly several high-end forwards of which to choose from in this year’s lottery. For this reason, I think they will end up going with a forward with this year’s 1st round pick. A center with ‘top line’ potential fits their line of thinking, I’d wager!

The whole point of that quote is Kelley saying that even if they really want a forward, they always go BPA. So if Byram is BPA, they will picked him regardless of position.

 

[Brother Espo]

The whole point of that quote is Kelley saying that even if they really want a forward, they always go BPA. So if Byram is BPA, they will picked him regardless of position.

True. However, I’d left the whole quote in so as to highlight the Hawks’ thought process around their eventually needing and wanting to select a top end forward, to replenish their stable, which they have not done since at least 2016.

This is the year of the forward, with several stellar prospects of which to choose from, would you not agree? I really do think this is the year they go with a forward, especially since at least a couple of them are considered as being so skilled that they are not a huge drop-off in talent from Hughes. I’m specifically referring to Turcotte and Zegras who I know the Hawks covet, with Krebs ever so slightly less so.

 

[Kevin Musto]

True. However, I’d left the whole quote in so as to highlight the Hawks’ thought process around their eventually needing and wanting to select a top end forward, to replenish their stable, which they have not done since at least 2016.

This is the year of the forward, with several stellar prospects of which to choose from, would you not agree? I really do think this is the year they go with a forward, especially since at least a couple of them are considered as being so skilled that they are not a huge drop-off in talent from Hughes. I’m specifically referring to Turcotte and Zegras who I know the Hawks covet, with Krebs ever so slightly less so.

Needing a forward and it being a stacked forward draft means nothing.

If BPA is a defenceman, they will take one.

 

[Brother Espo]

Needing a forward and it being a stacked forward draft means nothing.

If BPA is a defenceman, they will take one.

Agreed. But, if the Hawks rate a few players equally near the top of this draft, which I have reason to believe that they do, then don’t doubt that positional need will then come in to play. When it comes to the Hawks’ prospect depth chart, they are currently thin at forward and yet fairly strong at defence.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Agreed. But, if the Hawks rate a few players equally near the top of this draft, which I have reason to believe that they do, then don’t doubt that positional need will then come in to play. When it comes to the Hawks’ prospect depth chart, they are currently thin at forward and yet fairly strong at defence.

There aren't going to be any ties or equal players on their board. They'll come up with a definitive player to take at 3. If that player is Byram, than it's Byram. Position will not, under any circumstance, be a contributing factor.

 

[crazyhawk]

Agreed. But, if the Hawks rate a few players equally near the top of this draft, which I have reason to believe that they do, then don’t doubt that positional need will then come in to play. When it comes to the Hawks’ prospect depth chart, they are currently thin at forward and yet fairly strong at defence.

I get your drift .. and you may be right as arguably the C position is the greatest need ( looking down the road a few years when Toews declines ) but ... other than Beaudin the LD position is fairly thin and in particular the 1LD position is extremely thin given that Beaudin is more projected to be a 2 or 3D. It really could go either way ... from Toews' performance this year I can see him staying in 1LC for at least another 2 - 3 years while Keith at 1LD is not showing that kind of projection. This would indicate to me at least a slight favouring of going with Byram over the likes of Turcotte or Zegras or ?

 

[Chuck Testa]

Can’t pass on a stud defenseman like Byram. Everything else is just noise.

We were gifted the #3 pick, can’t waste a top 3 pick on someone who may be fringe top 8.

The team defense is awful.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Can’t pass on a stud defenseman like Byram. Everything else is just noise.

We were gifted the #3 pick, can’t waste a top 3 pick on someone who may be fringe top 8.

The team defense is awful.

Ya, having a good to great top-4 for the next decade all but guarantees the Hawks will be competitive, even if the offense from the forwards isn’t stellar.

Nashville for few years and Carolina this year show how a good top-4 can at least bring you to the playoffs, and if you get lucky, to the conference final

Add in scoring from guys like Strome and DeBrincat, and you have more potential. That’s ignoring any production you can still get out of Kane and Toews in a few years from now.

I can see the Blackhawks being pretty similar to the Carolina team 4-5 years from now.

Strome and DeBrincat will be our Aho and Teravainen, Kane our Justin Williams, Toews our Jordan Staal, and our defense will hopefully be even better than Carolina's is this year.

 

[kmwtrucks]

we picked up 3 top 9 or so forwards this year in Cagguila, Strome, and perlini. who were all in there 1st 3 years in the league. How often do you see top 5 type young D traded? the only thing people trade are forsling types who are fringe bottom pairing players. I'm not sure how good bowen is but I would be fine drafting him and trading AA and signing a younger forward as his replacement. Kubalik and Dzingel, Nuquist or hayes, or one of the mid tier guys and we could be pretty good next year if Craw stays healthy.

 

[ChiHawk21]

Ya, having a good to great top-4 for the next decade all but guarantees the Hawks will be competitive, even if the offense from the forwards isn’t stellar.

Nashville for few years and Carolina this year show how a good top-4 can at least bring you to the playoffs, and if you get lucky, to the conference final

Add in scoring from guys like Strome and DeBrincat, and you have more potential. That’s ignoring any production you can still get out of Kane and Toews in a few years from now.

I can see the Blackhawks being pretty similar to the Carolina team 4-5 years from now.

Strome and DeBrincat will be our Aho and Teravainen, Kane our Justin Williams, Toews our Jordan Staal, and our defense will hopefully be even better than Carolina's is this year.

but also if they get a number one center (say they rank turcotte to become one)

x-Turcotte-Kane
Debrincat-Strome-x
Saad-Toews-x

Thats just plug and play for years with

Joker,Mitchell,Keith, Boqvist, Beaudin,Murphy on the backend

Im still undecided who i want them to take.

 

[bwana63]

The team defense is awful.

Wrong. Our team D was awful in the ~first half of the season. From there, it improved markedly. Admittedly, that's a low bar. But it's far from the tire fire it was. Is there room for improvement? Of course. Massive amount of room. But it's questionable whether Byram is going to help much this season. Much more of a longer play. Still on the Byram train, FWIW.

Also, as our young guns replace the marginal placeholders, our team D is bound to improve (teething problems, no withstanding).

 

[RememberTheRoar]

but also if they get a number one center (say they rank turcotte to become one)

x-Turcotte-Kane
Debrincat-Strome-x
Saad-Toews-x

Thats just plug and play for years with

Joker,Mitchell,Keith, Boqvist, Beaudin,Murphy on the backend

Im still undecided who i want them to take.

That's not bad either, to be honest.

I think with the defensive prospects we have right now, our defense will be as good as Carolina's in the next few years, and should be good enough to at least carry the Hawks to the playoffs. Add in Byram, and we could be looking at the best defensive core in the NHL in the next few years.

But to your point, that's a damn good forward lineup where you basically have three top lines that you can roll evenly.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

we picked up 3 top 9 or so forwards this year in Cagguila, Strome, and perlini. who were all in there 1st 3 years in the league. How often do you see top 5 type young D traded? the only thing people trade are forsling types who are fringe bottom pairing players. I'm not sure how good bowen is but I would be fine drafting him and trading AA and signing a younger forward as his replacement. Kubalik and Dzingel, Nuquist or hayes, or one of the mid tier guys and we could be pretty good next year if Craw stays healthy.

You could also argue that Kahun was another top-9 forward that got picked up this year.

Also, is seems people are expecting Kubalik to be a top-9 forward.

 

[LDF]

Bowen Byram seems to be highly valued by the Blackhawks and if they elect to go with a defenceman at #3, it will be him.

However, I am thinking that it will end up being a forward and for good reason.

Asked whether the Hawks will pick BPA at #3, Kelley said: “I think even if you look back to um, y’know, the past two drafts, I don’t think we went in there saying, um, we’re going to draft a defenceman with our first pick and a defenceman with our second pick and certainly that happened with Henri and then with Ian and then last year, going in, probably, um y’know, organizational, Stan and I talked and we said, ideally we’d like to come out of the first round with a forward and a defenceman.”

This is the year of the forward like last year was the year of the defenceman. The Hawks are lacking blue chip forward talent in their system, unlike defencemen, and there are clearly several high-end forwards of which to choose from in this year’s lottery. For this reason, I think they will end up going with a forward with this year’s 1st round pick. A center with ‘top line’ potential fits their line of thinking, I’d wager!

ref the bold, this comment tells me that the Bhawks are looking to trade for an additional 1st rounder which i love.

a case can be made on other lhd that are prospect to be drafted in the high 1st or in the 1st in the teens. then i can see the opportunity to draft a forward at #3.

however i have always maintain that the BPA is still subjective to the pro's vs fans opinions.

but the Bhawks needs to have to draft a potential #1 lhd to be the heir apparent replacement for keith. that means in another 2 or 3 yrs..... guess what, that is a time line i expect for a d-men to develop into what they will become in the future.

in other future draft, a forward can be drafted, maybe the upside will not be as high, then the Bhawks will need to trade their surplus to get additional 1st rounder this draft.

this draft is very important for the Bhawks future...... per my opinion.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Wrong. Our team D was awful in the ~first half of the season. From there, it improved markedly. Admittedly, that's a low bar. But it's far from the tire fire it was. Is there room for improvement? Of course. Massive amount of room.

GA in first 41GP = 148
GA in last 41 GP = 143

 

[BK]

GA in first 41GP = 148
GA in last 41 GP = 143

I wouldn't just use GA alone though.

 

[ColdSteel2]

GA in first 41GP = 148
GA in last 41 GP = 143

Plus we have to factor in Keith’s resurgence. He was so much better in the second half. He looked like he was declining or coasting during the first half, hopefully it was the latter. If that improvement didn’t put a dent in the GA, we need a lot more help from outside the organization to fix the problem.

 

[hawksfan50]

Byram may be best dman of this draft...But this does not automatically make him THE BPA at#3...

And Kelley indicated Hawks at this point have not yet let the"process play out"for their determination who they think is the best player they could take at #3...when it is this congested among so many prospects in afirward heavy top 13 or 14 really good prospects in this draft ,I would suggest that the BOA idea is too muddled to present a clear 100% guaranteed "this is the BPA" andnobody ekseis close so we must take this guy idea..

The fact is that it is always difficult to project 3-4 years out and say we know for sure Now that our choice will turn out better than those taken after him...There are drafts I some years where you can say there is a clear top 3 or top 5...buttons draft it only appears the clearness as to potential impact certainty is at least in the forwards,limited to Hughes and Kakko...after that you get differing g ooinionsby too many "experts" as to which forward Hawks should take at#3..It is easy then to simply say take the clear
top dman...BUT it is not clear Byram is any sort of overall BPA that high...you can argue the forward crop of candidates could turn out better as Byram may not even be a franchise 1Dsome are claiming he is...he certainly did not produce in the last 3 straight losses Vancouver had to Pronce Albert in the WHL final going on(Byram's Vancouver Giants trail 3-1 in the series)... RATHER WE SEE THAT Brett Leason has upped his game to impact big in this series and he is not even in consideration as high as #3 (of course he is much older than Byram)..but still..if Byeam was really that much a BPA he would have done a lit more to "star" than I just 1 of the 4 games played so far in the series..

All the prospects for consideration at #3 have some flaws...I cludi g Byram...hejust gets a benefit that he is the clear best Dman ranked for this draft wherasforward rankings Fter Highes and Kakko are more muddled..but this may sY more about the lack of REAL tip 5 quality dman I this draft vs. Top5 or even top 7 or 8 top forwards in this draft when you project out everything.Wecoild even see a guy like Leason who will not even go top 10 maybe being g the best pro impact player fro. This draft deowndi g on which team he gets picked to ,and if he comments their ste and those he plays with.

Some teMs play Nort South and arebifger and heavier...so.e teMs play a fast skilled style with more east-west ste.

You must factor in lots of considerations and also your teM'sbiggest Needs not just for next year or two but down the line if you factor i current tezmstRs agi g and declining .

So there is a lot to consider at '3 especially this draft within clear have to take at #3 because player is so far Head of all others to consider taking g that high.

No..this is a draft where you can clearly be wrong g about calling g Nyone the BPA at #3...rather this draft HWks must think more strategically..What is will be their biggest Need 1 year or 2 years out (because no ody we pick at #3 will be in the roster this season anyway)..

I think on strategic reasons the answer is clear...it has to be a 2 way C who fills lots of roles...drive the 3rdline 5x5 to make that line product and dofferenxe-making at events....to win face-offs to keep possession...To impact in helping the pk and relieve Toews from pk duty...To plY strong defensively...cut of attacks in neutral zone...take picks away.. start back quick transitions ..to forecheck and ba k-check well.. Finally in 4-5 years to be in prime years form and Ready to take over as 1C from a Toews heading into his final few seasons of his career into his late 30s..
When looked at it this way who is the best C candidate to fill all these needs and roles?

I THINK Turcotte ticks the most boxes on this
...but thevonly concern is the is he prone to injury question...was last season a 1 off bad luck yet with I juries or do other prior seasons indicate problems staying healthy through a long grind? IF there is no long history of injury problems then we should take the player ticking the most boxes for our impact C needs for a year out and longer...

If there is such an injury red flag history then take either 1 of the bigger body Centers in Cozens or Dach or go with Krebs who at the least ticks boxes for many roles as a 3C and pk solution.Or if you want an immediate solution.. then trade the pick down and take something else..

 

[LDF]

Byram may be best dman of this draft...But this does not automatically make him THE BPA at#3...

And Kelley indicated Hawks at this point have not yet let the"process play out"for their determination who they think is the best player they could take at #3...when it is this congested among so many prospects in afirward heavy top 13 or 14 really good prospects in this draft ,I would suggest that the BOA idea is too muddled to present a clear 100% guaranteed "this is the BPA" andnobody ekseis close so we must take this guy idea..

The fact is that it is always difficult to project 3-4 years out and say we know for sure Now that our choice will turn out better than those taken after him...There are drafts I some years where you can say there is a clear top 3 or top 5...buttons draft it only appears the clearness as to potential impact certainty is at least in the forwards,limited to Hughes and Kakko...after that you get differing g ooinionsby too many "experts" as to which forward Hawks should take at#3..It is easy then to simply say take the clear
top dman...BUT it is not clear Byram is any sort of overall BPA that high...you can argue the forward crop of candidates could turn out better as Byram may not even be a franchise 1Dsome are claiming he is...he certainly did not produce in the last 3 straight losses Vancouver had to Pronce Albert in the WHL final going on(Byram's Vancouver Giants trail 3-1 in the series)... RATHER WE SEE THAT Brett Leason has upped his game to impact big in this series and he is not even in consideration as high as #3 (of course he is much older than Byram)..but still..if Byeam was really that much a BPA he would have done a lit more to "star" than I just 1 of the 4 games played so far in the series..

All the prospects for consideration at #3 have some flaws...I cludi g Byram...hejust gets a benefit that he is the clear best Dman ranked for this draft wherasforward rankings Fter Highes and Kakko are more muddled..but this may sY more about the lack of REAL tip 5 quality dman I this draft vs. Top5 or even top 7 or 8 top forwards in this draft when you project out everything.Wecoild even see a guy like Leason who will not even go top 10 maybe being g the best pro impact player fro. This draft deowndi g on which team he gets picked to ,and if he comments their ste and those he plays with.

Some teMs play Nort South and arebifger and heavier...so.e teMs play a fast skilled style with more east-west ste.

You must factor in lots of considerations and also your teM'sbiggest Needs not just for next year or two but down the line if you factor i current tezmstRs agi g and declining .

So there is a lot to consider at '3 especially this draft within clear have to take at #3 because player is so far Head of all others to consider taking g that high.

No..this is a draft where you can clearly be wrong g about calling g Nyone the BPA at #3...rather this draft HWks must think more strategically..What is will be their biggest Need 1 year or 2 years out (because no ody we pick at #3 will be in the roster this season anyway)..

I think on strategic reasons the answer is clear...it has to be a 2 way C who fills lots of roles...drive the 3rdline 5x5 to make that line product and dofferenxe-making at events....to win face-offs to keep possession...To impact in helping the pk and relieve Toews from pk duty...To plY strong defensively...cut of attacks in neutral zone...take picks away.. start back quick transitions ..to forecheck and ba k-check well.. Finally in 4-5 years to be in prime years form and Ready to take over as 1C from a Toews heading into his final few seasons of his career into his late 30s..
When looked at it this way who is the best C candidate to fill all these needs and roles?

I THINK Turcotte ticks the most boxes on this
...but thevonly concern is the is he prone to injury question...was last season a 1 off bad luck yet with I juries or do other prior seasons indicate problems staying healthy through a long grind? IF there is no long history of injury problems then we should take the player ticking the most boxes for our impact C needs for a year out and longer...

If there is such an injury red flag history then take either 1 of the bigger body Centers in Cozens or Dach or go with Krebs who at the least ticks boxes for many roles as a 3C and pk solution.Or if you want an immediate solution.. then trade the pick down and take something else..

ref the bold, you wrote up a good report however i tend to disagree with you on this report as a whole .

the fact is and i would like to state that it is an indisputable fact that offensive players will always get the most write up, the most attention.

one will really need to think outside the box and be self aware of the defense and in this point a d-man.

now i am not including player/prospects that may be a generational talent which i am not saying any are that.

 

[kmwtrucks]

anybody find some reviews of the WHL game the last 2 nights? Bowen team lost both last night was a shotout they out shoot the other team by about 10 shoots. the game Tues was a blow out with a ton of PP goals.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I wouldn't just use GA alone though.

What other stats shall we look at?

Shot attempts against?
first 41GP = 1938
last 41GP = 1997

Shots on goal against?
first 41GP = 1402
last 41GP = 1450

I'm not sure which stats would make the team look defensively better? Not trying to cherry pick here.

The team improved offensively in the last half, but defensively they were the same, or worse (stats wise).

 

[BK]

What other stats shall we look at?

Shot attempts against?
first 41GP = 1938
last 41GP = 1997

Shots on goal against?
first 41GP = 1402
last 41GP = 1450

I'm not sure which stats would make the team look defensively better? Not trying to cherry pick here.

The team improved offensively in the last half, but defensively they were the same, or worse (stats wise).

I would start with corsi but also dig into goalie numbers as well.

IMO there are a lot of stats that need to be looked at to formulate a definitive answer along with using the eye test.

My whole point is that using just GA is not the best way to look at it.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I would start with corsi but also dig into goalie numbers as well.

IMO there are a lot of stats that need to be looked at to formulate a definitive answer along with using the eye test.

My whole point is that using just GA is not the best way to look at it.

Right, maybe they slightly improved, at best. My point was, they certainly did not markedly improve defensively.
If they did, they wouldn't have let in almost as many goals, and more Shots Against.

 

[d rake]

ref the bold, you wrote up a good report however i tend to disagree with you on this report as a whole .

the fact is and i would like to state that it is an indisputable fact that offensive players will always get the most write up, the most attention.

one will really need to think outside the box and be self aware of the defense and in this point a d-man.

now i am not including player/prospects that may be a generational talent which i am not saying any are that.

Turcotte is the best 2-way forward in this draft.