Marc Bergevin: Draft? Edition (XIV)

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

UFA signing is over rated.

Drafting.... You should point your finger towards Timmins, not MB.

Trading sideways is also very overrated. Proof is in the pudding. No matter how many trades you can speculate he won, it hasn't moved the needle to anywhere close to bringing us back to the level the team was when he first got here.

 

[Miller Time]

Tatar, Domi, Drouin, Suzuki, KK, Gallagher have all top-six talent.. Two very good second lines.

Yes, kinda like Plekanec, patcioretty, Cole/Ryder, Gionta, Galchenyuk, Desharnais...

Thank you for affirming my point.

 

[DAChampion]

Yes, kinda like Plekanec, patcioretty, Cole/Ryder, Gionta, Galchenyuk, Desharnais...

Thank you for affirming my point.

Your list includes several players who were at or very near the end of their productive years.

 

[Miller Time]

Your list includes several players who were at or very near the end of their productive years.

Feel free to add Eller & Gallagher to the list if it makes you feel better.

 

[Habs Halifax]

How much bonuses can Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, and Romanov make if they reach targets next year on their ELC's? I believe it's an extra $3M ish. So not many talking about this potential and how we need to keep that space open. Rather not defer that to the 21/22 season.

Can someone explain the defer options for ELC's where players reach target bonuses? You have the option to use that current cap space year or defer to the following year? Correct or not?

 

[Archijerej]

With Suzuki and Kotkaniemi emerging it should be an exciting time this off-season for the management and coaching staff. Lots of decisions concerning roster construction and player deployment.

 

[DAChampion]

Concerning the discussions in the PGT, it's not actually realistic for Bergevin to trade all six of Tatar, Drouin, Domi, Gallagher, Lehkonen, and Armia.

Abd they're not all bad. At least one of them is injured, they're not getting great support from their D, and they're up against the best team in the Eastern Conference.

Does Mete have any shots in this series?

I think that replacing one of them or maybe two with better players, and upgrading the D, would go a long way.

 

[ArtPeur]

Concerning the discussions in the PGT, it's not actually realistic for Bergevin to trade all six of Tatar, Drouin, Domi, Gallagher, Lehkonen, and Armia.

Abd they're not all bad. At least one of them is injured, they're not getting great support from their D, and they're up against the best team in the Eastern Conference.

Does Mete have any shots in this series?

I think that replacing one of them or maybe two with better players, and upgrading the D, would go a long way.

Mete has no shots and no body checks.
4 blocked shots (3 in game 1)

 

[Runner77]

Mete has no shots and no body checks.
4 blocked shots (3 in game 1)

Mete is like the Holy Ghost.

He works in mysterious ways.

It's amazing, it's like he was never there! Stat sheet bears witness! Amen!

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

How do the Habs find a way to hire Lemaire... Leafs sign Tavares, everyone thinks the Isles are dead, and here they are looking great with a Lemaire driven revive. Almost at the same time he leaves the leafs and they falter.

Habs need someone who knows how to win, not pretends he knows how to win (getting coffee for the GM of the stanley cup champion only makes you his assistant, not assistant GM)

 

[DAChampion]

Moving from the PGT,

I would not say it's average. It's good. But it's not top. Also people underestimate the fact our best players are getting old. Price (33), Weber (35) and Petry (33 next december) will all slow down in the next 5 years. Those are big pieces to replace. They will still be here but they wont bring the same level of performance as right now.

Just replacing those players production would already a significant accomplishment from our prospect pool. But the thing is they need to eventually replace those players production and also significantly improve the team. Personally i don't see it. We had to sell at the deadline. I might be wrong but i strongly believe we had to sell.

It is true that the Habs' farm system needs to be strong to merely replace the production of the currently declining Price, Weber, Petry. These players are healthy and smart, they may decline gradually, but they will still decline. The best scenario is that they'll be replacement level by 2025. I think that 2025 is a reasonable bet.

But I think it's fair to assume that the current farm system, which includes Primeau, Norlinder, Romanov, Juulsen, not to mention Poehling, Ylonen, Harris, Caulfield, can at least do that much. It's a good bet. The replacement might come from having two very good players as opposed to one great one, but that's fine. And Price might improve in the next two years if they bring in a backup who can play ~30 games.

That leaves trades, UFA signings, and any prospects drafted in the period 2020-2024 as pieces to not simply replace declining players, but to improve the team beyond that.

To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, do not think like a chess player who focuses on the pieces currently on the board. Think like a GO player, who also thinks about the pieces that can be added.

 

[LaP]

To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, do not think like a chess player who focuses on the pieces currently on the board. Think like a GO player, who also thinks about the pieces that can be added.

But that the point. The pieces that could have been added by selling at the deadline could have been huge. If you sell Petry and Tatar then there's good chance you add two 1st first picks and a prospect. Then with Fleury instead of Petry maybe we don't beat the Pens. Petry played a huge role in that series. Maybe the 1st picks we would have gotten would have been from team eliminated in the plays-in. That's exactly by thinking like a Go player that imo we had to sell.

 

[DAChampion]

But that the point. The pieces that could have been added by selling at the deadline could have been huge. If you sell Petry and Tatar then there's good chance you add two 1st first picks and a prospect. Then with Fleury instead of Petry maybe we don't beat the Pens. Petry played a huge role in that series. Maybe the 1st picks we would have gotten would have been from team eliminated in the plays-in. That's exactly by thinking like a Go player that imo we had to sell.

Well, Bergevin didn't know that there would Covid-induced rule changes.

I think that Tatar, etc still have trade value. I've been convinced by another poster is that the best thing that the Habs can do is trade Tatar for assets, and then sign Hall as a UFA. They then end up with an upgrade at wing, a higher payroll, and increased assets. Or they can sign another UFA winger if Hall doesn't want to come here.

I'm in favour of the Habs keeping Petry. He might be tradeable at the deadline if at least three of Juulsen, Romanov, Fleury, and Brook show substantial improvement, but that seems unlikely. Edit: Forgot about Mete and Kulak but I'm not optimistic.

 

[Runner77]

But that the point. The pieces that could have been added by selling at the deadline could have been huge. If you sell Petry and Tatar then there's good chance you add two 1st first picks and a prospect. Then with Fleury instead of Petry maybe we don't beat the Pens. Petry played a huge role in that series. Maybe the 1st picks we would have gotten would have been from team eliminated in the plays-in. That's exactly by thinking like a Go player that imo we had to sell.

You're not wrong but if we look at what could have been, there are other junctures in Bergevin's tenure where the failure to act was also critical.

We can't do anything about what has happened, evidently. But, the future is also compromised given that the same decision-makers remain at the helm.

It's a private business at the end of the day and we as fans, have limited say. Sure we fuel their profits by being fans but we're disorganized and some people are just looking for a place where they can bring their clients for entertainment.

I think it's one of those things where fans have a decision to make -- they either choose to live with the incompetence of a spineless ownership group or they move on. I'm sick and tired of hoping Bergevin will do this and that -- he's had 8 years and that's more than enough, he will not change.

 

[DAChampion]

You're not wrong but if we look at what could have been, there are other junctures in Bergevin's tenure where the failure to act was also critical.

We can't do anything about what has happened, evidently. But, the future is also compromised given that the same decision-makers remain at the helm.

It's a private business at the end of the day and we as fans, have limited say. Sure we fuel their profits by being fans but we're disorganized and some people are just looking for a place where they can bring their clients for entertainment.

I think it's one of those things where fans have a decision to make -- they either choose to live with the incompetence of a spineless ownership group or they move on. I'm sick and tired of hoping Bergevin will do this and that -- he's had 8 years and that's more than enough, he will not change.

I can't blame Bergevin for not planning for Covid, but in my opinion these are his three greatest failures, that have caused the most long-term damage:

- The Drouin for Sergachev trade. That might have been forced by ownership, but Bergevin could have likely had Drouin for cheaper;
- Keeping Lefebvre for six years;
- Not acquiring Teuvo Terevainen when he was available for cheap. Bergevin should have known better as a former Chicago executive;

That said, things are looking up since mid-2018. Bergevin might still be the same fool but if he's surrounded by better people then the situation will keep improving.

 

[Runner77]

I can't blame Bergevin for not planning for Covid, but in my opinion these are his three greatest failures, that have caused the most long-term damage:

- The Drouin for Sergachev trade. That might have been forced by ownership, but Bergevin could have likely had Drouin for cheaper;
- Keeping Lefebvre for six years;
- Not acquiring Teuvo Terevainen when he was available for cheap. Bergevin should have known better as a former Chicago executive;

That said, things are looking up since mid-2018. Bergevin might still be the same fool but if he's surrounded by better people then the situation will keep improving.

I would add not having properly planned for Markov's succession in a timely manner, was one of the biggest mistakes. It created a domino effect of regression that included the signing of Alzner. Another was not being able to optimize his team's asset mix by featuring too many players with a similar profile. Also -- the confusing pursuit of both building through the draft and vying to make the playoffs at the same time, somehow continues to be entertained.

Bergevin may or may not have better people but since the buck still stops with him (or Molson or both), then it's more than likely that history will keep repeating itself. There are still too many management types who don't appear to be held to account given the org.'s paltry results. Ultimately, the way this org. is run sounds like a play toy for the afterthought money of a deluded billionaire ownership group.

 

[LaP]

Well, Bergevin didn't know that there would Covid-induced rule changes.

I think that Tatar, etc still have trade value. I've been convinced by another poster is that the best thing that the Habs can do is trade Tatar for assets, and then sign Hall as a UFA. They then end up with an upgrade at wing, a higher payroll, and increased assets. Or they can sign another UFA winger if Hall doesn't want to come here.

I'm in favour of the Habs keeping Petry. He might be tradeable at the deadline if at least three of Juulsen, Romanov, Fleury, and Brook show substantial improvement, but that seems unlikely. Edit: Forgot about Mete and Kulak but I'm not optimistic.

But he knew the expansion draft is coming in 2021. Teams acquiring our players if we have to sell (and we probably will have to sell 1 or 2) will have a very tinny windows to sign them if they can't protect them. This could impact value.

 

[Kriss E]

Well, Bergevin didn't know that there would Covid-induced rule changes.

I think that Tatar, etc still have trade value. I've been convinced by another poster is that the best thing that the Habs can do is trade Tatar for assets, and then sign Hall as a UFA. They then end up with an upgrade at wing, a higher payroll, and increased assets. Or they can sign another UFA winger if Hall doesn't want to come here.

I'm in favour of the Habs keeping Petry. He might be tradeable at the deadline if at least three of Juulsen, Romanov, Fleury, and Brook show substantial improvement, but that seems unlikely. Edit: Forgot about Mete and Kulak but I'm not optimistic.

Signing Hall accomplishes nothing if it isn't done with a clear plan behind. It's like trading Sergachev for Drouin and leaving it at that....utterly pointless.
Trade Tatar for assets...great, I'm all for that. Signing Hall? Meh...Tatar produced more than him this season and he's injury prone.

This team is in a very bad position. Our prospects are interesting but they aren't good enough for us to to rely on them to lead us in the future...unless some of them take big leaps.
Our veterans are aging so we can't rely on them either for much longer so we should be moving them while they're still worth something but our dumb GM refuses to do that.

Then we look at the general make up of this team....too many small players...too many inconsistent guys...nobody is really aggressive or physical. When Jeff Petry is your leader in hits....it's just sad. Heck, Lek is our 4th leading hitter! That's hilarious...

This team needs a complete makeover.

 

[DAChampion]

Signing Hall accomplishes nothing if it isn't done with a clear plan behind. It's like trading Sergachev for Drouin and leaving it at that....utterly pointless.
Trade Tatar for assets...great, I'm all for that. Signing Hall? Meh...Tatar produced more than him this season and he's injury prone.

This team is in a very bad position. Our prospects are interesting but they aren't good enough for us to to rely on them to lead us in the future...unless some of them take big leaps.
Our veterans are aging so we can't rely on them either for much longer so we should be moving them while they're still worth something but our dumb GM refuses to do that.

Then we look at the general make up of this team....too many small players...too many inconsistent guys...nobody is really aggressive or physical. When Jeff Petry is your leader in hits....it's just sad. Heck, Lek is our 4th leading hitter! That's hilarious...

This team needs a complete makeover.

In a hypothetical scenario where the Habs trade Tatar for assets and sign Hall, they are better off.

Hall is the better player. Aside from being three inches taller, 22 lbs heavier, and 11 months younger while playing at the same position, he produces better.
- In the last three seasons, Tatar has 67 goals and 86 assists in 230 games, whereas Hall has 61 goals and 116 assists in 174 games. Per 82 games, that is an extra 6 goals and 24 assists, where the assists matter as both of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi have good shots.
- Hall has 12 points in 13 career playoff games, Tatar has 11 points in 33 career playoff games;
- Admittedly Hall has had an extra 1 minute of PP and 2 minutes of ES time per game.

Just in a swap, Hall would be worth the extra 3 or 4 million per season, but you also have to factor the assets that the Habs would get for Tatar.

 

[The Real Timo]

With Suzuki and Kotkaniemi emerging it should be an exciting time this off-season for the management and coaching staff. Lots of decisions concerning roster construction and player deployment.

It's the same people that have been making roster decisions for the past 7 years... i think we know how this round will end up

 

[Kriss E]

In a hypothetical scenario where the Habs trade Tatar for assets and sign Hall, they are better off.

Hall is the better player. Aside from being three inches taller, 22 lbs heavier, and 11 months younger while playing at the same position, he produces better.
- In the last three seasons, Tatar has 67 goals and 86 assists in 230 games, whereas Hall has 61 goals and 116 assists in 174 games. Per 82 games, that is an extra 6 goals and 24 assists, where the assists matter as both of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi have good shots.
- Hall has 12 points in 13 career playoff games, Tatar has 11 points in 33 career playoff games;
- Admittedly Hall has had an extra 1 minute of PP and 2 minutes of ES time per game.

Just in a swap, Hall would be worth the extra 3 or 4 million per season, but you also have to factor the assets that the Habs would get for Tatar.

Come on DA...this isn't my first rodeo.
You're just putting lipstick on pig here. Hall is injury prone, in his 10 year career, he played 82 games once. So you can use his scoring pace all you want, it's pretty pointless when he never finishes the seasons anyways.
Hall had over a ppg pace two seasons ago, who cares, Tatar still outproduced him in the end.

Yes, he's bigger, faster, more potential but as I said he never plays a whole season so what's the point? Even if you want to say he's better than Tatar, odds are it won't be by much by the end of the year. We need to start making strong mindful moves, not do these maybe it's better - maybe not, types of moves.

I'm all for the assets Tatar would fetch us. I would be selling a lot of players, we need a complete overhaul.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Team is going in the right direction, give us 7-8 years, once we replace Weber and Price after their decline we are right back on track baby go Habs go

 

[DAChampion]

Come on DA...this isn't my first rodeo.
You're just putting lipstick on pig here. Hall is injury prone, in his 10 year career, he played 82 games once. So you can use his scoring pace all you want, it's pretty pointless when he never finishes the seasons anyways.
Hall had over a ppg pace two seasons ago, who cares, Tatar still outproduced him in the end.

Yes, he's bigger, faster, more potential but as I said he never plays a whole season so what's the point? Even if you want to say he's better than Tatar, odds are it won't be by much by the end of the year. We need to start making strong mindful moves, not do these maybe it's better - maybe not, types of moves.

I'm all for the assets Tatar would fetch us. I would be selling a lot of players, we need a complete overhaul.

The roots of my optimism are non-trivial:
- Lefebvre was replaced with Bouchard two years ago. In recent years they've also stockpiled a lot of picks.
- The youth/farm system is progressing more rapidly than anticipated.
- The Habs defeated the Penguins, and are now putting up a strong fight against the best team in the conference.
- The Habs have enough cap space to manoeuver.
- The team's primary area of weakness, the wings, is only contextually weak. Of Tatar, Domi, Gallagher, and Drouin, I expect that three of them have substantial trade value.

The situation is not desperate.

I don't put lipstick on pigs -- I'm Jewish. f*** pigs. But I'm seeing a kitchen with a lot of great ingredients that's only missing a few vegetables to add flavour. The meat, preferably lamb, and the spices are there.

 

[Habricot]

I am not sure I would call Gallagher a weakness. He is only when he is in a slump (like now) but his play in these playoff is not typicall you can see he is trying too much. I think two of Tatar, Domi and Drouin need to be replaced. I would like/hope that Poehling could replace one of them but currently it does not look too promising.

 

[Kriss E]

The roots of my optimism are non-trivial:
- Lefebvre was replaced with Bouchard two years ago. In recent years they've also stockpiled a lot of picks.
- The youth/farm system is progressing more rapidly than anticipated.
- The Habs defeated the Penguins, and are now putting up a strong fight against the best team in the conference.
- The Habs have enough cap space to manoeuver.
- The team's primary area of weakness, the wings, is only contextually weak. Of Tatar, Domi, Gallagher, and Drouin, I expect that three of them have substantial trade value.

The situation is not desperate.

Nothing in your arguments should lead you to believe we're actually going to become a strong team.

1) Bouchard replaced Sly, ya, but the book is still unwritten regarding his ability to develop our players.
Sure, it's cool to see more younger players possibly make the league but the Poehling, Fleury, Juulsen, etc...aren't major players.

2) Our youth progressing more rapidly? Well that's pretty subjective and debatable. KK had a great rookie year, then a step back. Suzuki had a great rookie year...maybe his second season will be more difficult like KK...other than them, there isn't a prospect who's progressing quicker than anticipated...actually maybe even the opposite, I expected Brooks to do better, Juulsen I thought would be a mainstay NHLer by now....so ya...not exactly as you paint it.

3) I can't believe you are seriously taking beating the Pens as some type of argument. And we've played like crap vs the Flyers except for one game. Heck, we didn't even score in half of the games! How can you possibly be taken serious with this mate? Come on.

4) Habs have had cap space for like 3 years, we've done nothing with it. It's completely trivial at this point as shown by previous years.

5) Our primary area of weakness is a massive lack of cohesion on our team. This team needs a big facelift. Too many small similar players, not enough talent, saying our assets have good trade value is irrelevant. Saying Tatar has good trade value means absolutely nothing with whether or not we will improve.

You can be optimistic and hope for the best. It's fine, but I don't think that's an objective way of looking at things.

I don't put lipstick on pigs -- I'm Jewish. f*** pigs. But I'm seeing a kitchen with a lot of great ingredients that's only missing a few vegetables to add flavour. The meat, preferably lamb, and the spices are there.

Disagree. I see a chaotic kitchen. Yup, some nice ingredients here and there, but doesn't mean the meal comes out looking tasty.