Confirmed with Link: Maple Leafs Extend Connor Carrick (1 Year Deal, 1.3M)

[jrgtml67]

No issue with this. Very moveable player of we so choose. Now we have Miro, Johnsson and Holl to sign. I think Goat is done, Marincin is done and Baun 50 50 chance.

 

[FreeBird]

Nothing to dislike here

Is this a riff going forward between Babs and Kid Dubas, Babs never played him at all going into the playoffs, 1.3 is pretty good coin for a Bench guy.

 

[jrgtml67]

Holl would come at nearly half the price of Carrick, and isn't all that much worse...

Its more of a matter of opportunity... one player got the opportunity, the other one didn't.

And why wouldn't Holl play in the NHL? If Polak isn't back..which I cant see he slots in. I really liked the Holl Dermott pairing. After Dermott..Justin is the closest D we have to stepping up. Timmy still needs some time it looks like.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Holl would come at nearly half the price of Carrick, and isn't all that much worse...

Its more of a matter of opportunity... one player got the opportunity, the other one didn't.

You can also look at it as one player earned their opportunity through good play while the other didn't.

Carrick was playing in the NHL at like 20 years old with Washington, Holl has never played in the NHL other than 2 games and it's hard to think that is a coincidence. especially as Holl was drafted much earlier.

Edit: as for the cap difference, it is a one year deal and i would wager the Leafs will have more than like half a million in cap space.

 

[Morgs]

That is crazy man.... Zaistev plays way harder QoC, way more mins and a lot tougher zone usage..

Zaitsev is also only like 2 years older.

Connor Carrick:

2016-17:

toiQOC: 28.49 (weak 2nd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: +1.23
rel.xGF%: +1.54
rel.GF%: +4.63

2017-18:

toiQOC: 27.92 (3rd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: +2.47
rel.xGF%: +5.24
rel.GF%: -7.75

Carrick in 2nd pairing minutes was a productive defenseman, and it's not surprising at all that his stats got even better when he moved down to the third pair. Guy is a great 3rd pair defenseman, and has shown the ability to be better than that.


Nikita Zaitsev:

2016-17:

toiQOC: 29.6 (tough 1st pairing comp)
rel.CF%: -0.87
rel.xGF%: -2.56
rel.GF%: -9.4

2017-18:

toiQOC: 29.12 (tough 2nd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: -3.73
rel.xGF%:-1.51
rel.GF%: -5.18

Zaitsev plays harder comp, but he always hurts our team. He had a great start to his career, and it looked like with a drop in the toughness of minutes he'd improve. Guess again, he was worse to not only the analytics community, but even the "eye-test" people could plainly see what a mistake the 7 year contract was.

 

[Kiwi]

Really...?

Carrick's role as a bottom six RD can easily be replaced by Holl or Ozhiganov or a re-signed Polak.

Holl is a career AHLer who's got 2 games of NHL experience
Ozhiganov was a healthy scratch in the KHL playoffs with zero NHL experience
Polak is a plug who should be fired into the sun

None of them make Carrick redundant in the system

 

[Morgs]

I mean:

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Connor Carrick:

2016-17:

toiQOC: 28.49 (weak 2nd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: +1.23
rel.xGF%: +1.54
rel.GF%: +4.63

2017-18:

toiQOC: 27.92 (3rd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: +2.47
rel.xGF%: +5.24
rel.GF%: -7.75

Carrick in 2nd pairing minutes was a productive defenseman, and it's not surprising at all that his stats got even better when he moved down to the third pair. Guy is a great 3rd pair defenseman, and has shown the ability to be better than that.


Nikita Zaitsev:

2016-17:

toiQOC: 29.6 (tough 1st pairing comp)
rel.CF%: -0.87
rel.xGF%: -2.56
rel.GF%: -9.4

2017-18:

toiQOC: 29.12 (tough 2nd pairing comp)
rel.CF%: -3.73
rel.xGF%:-1.51
rel.GF%: -5.18

Zaitsev plays harder comp, but he always hurts our team. He had a great start to his career, and it looked like with a drop in the toughness of minutes he'd improve. Guess again, he was worse to not only the analytics community, but even the "eye-test" people could plainly see what a mistake the 7 year contract was.

The Gardiner pairing with Carrick did look very good that year against fairly easy QoC. However Gardiner always has a positive impact on his partners possession numbers so I would keep that in mind when looking at that season.

Also take a look at some of the zone start differences at even stength.

Carrick:

2016/17: 58.8 oZS% 41.2 dZS%
2017/18: Oddly the exact same as previous year.

Zaitsev:

2016/17: 44.8 oZS%, 55.2 dZS%
2017/18: 45.6 oZS%, 54.4 dZS%

Almost a 15% difference in the zone starts in the offensive zone will drastically influence any advanced stats. The statistical probability of a goal for or a shot for in the offensive zone is obviously much higher than when starting in the defensive zone. Same thing with the high relative probability of a goal against or shot against when starting in the defensive zone. As a result zone starts difference that large can drastically alter many advanced statistics.

I would say the zone usage and very different QoC bridges the gap in any of their advanced stats.

That being said I agree that Zaitsev had a really bad year. He seems scared with the puck and would just ring it around the boards and it never made it out of the zone. He also had terrible positioning and never made himself open for a pass.

However he had a tough year with injuries and off ice stuff. When you combined that with his rookie season where he faced some of the toughest QoC in the league and did pretty well I would say there is a fair shout he will rebound to a good 2nd pairing guy. I don't think Carrick is there yet. He is a good 3rd pairing guy with potential. Just wasn't used as Babcock wanted someone physical in that #6 spot.

 

[thewave]

Good deal.

 

[DarkKnight]

If he's in the lineup opening night I'll be disappointed. Meh.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think some are looking at re-signing RFAs like it means he will 100% be used X or Y way. He was a RFA and teams re-sign their RFAs most of the time. Not sure a deep dive into an early RFA signing means a whole lot at this point. He could still be traded or he can be seen as a good player for us.

One thing is for sure, I hope he plays if they plan on keeping him. I thought he was pretty good for us in the games he played. He plays with an edge and can actually make a pass. His 0ffensive game has been disappointing but I think he's shown that he's more than capable. He's not perfect and makes his mistakes but he does a lot more good on the ice as opposed to other options we have.

I still to this day completely disagree with playing Polak over Carrick under any circumstance.

 

[Deebo]

According to CapFriendly, the Maple Leafs now have $21,042,500 remaining in cap space, needing to add 4 forwards (including William Nylander), and 3 defenders to an assumed 23 man roster.

Going out on a limb here, and gonna assume Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, Andreas Johnsson and Par Lindhom (along with William Nylander) are going to be penciled into those spots, and that leaves us with $18,329,167 to sign William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson, add another defender to the roster, and then upgrade the team.

That's based on a 75M cap. Like you posted elsewhere, the cap is going to jump to 79.5M minimum. CapFriendly also includes Horton so there is added flexibility of his salary going to LTIR.

 

[SprDaVE]

That's based on a 75M cap. Like you posted elsewhere, the cap is going to jump to 79.5M minimum. CapFriendly also includes Horton so there is added flexibility of his salary going to LTIR.

A ton of flexibility.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Is this a riff going forward between Babs and Kid Dubas, Babs never played him at all going into the playoffs, 1.3 is pretty good coin for a Bench guy.

Old man Lou called him an A prospect when he was acquired

 

[DarkKnight]

I like him as our 7th for a year, then move on when Lil is ready. He was terrible one on one in the corners last year, it was painful at times. People hated Polak, I get it, but it was also a testament to the fact Carrick simply wasn't that good, couldn't even beat out Polak for a job. He was given ample opportunity, it wasn't simply Babs favouritism, although easier to say that I suppose. For me both were flawed in different ways, we need to upgrade that spot. Carrick in for injuries I'm okay with. Polak gone.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Im kind of surprised but the right side is weak.

Im surprised because Carrick is terrified retrieving pucks with a forechecker on his back. The end result is a lack of commitment in the corner, turn-over, poor decision or lost puck battle. Even coming out of his own zone under pressure with the puck on his stick, he also makes poor decisions. Carrick is a great skater and seems like a good guy but his hockey sense is a glaring issue.

 

[Morgs]

The Gardiner pairing with Carrick did look very good that year against fairly easy QoC. However Gardiner always has a positive impact on his partners possession numbers so I would keep that in mind when looking at that season.

Also take a look at some of the zone start differences at even stength.

Carrick:

2016/17: 58.8 oZS% 41.2 dZS%
2017/18: Oddly the exact same as previous year.

Zaitsev:

2016/17: 44.8 oZS%, 55.2 dZS%
2017/18: 45.6 oZS%, 54.4 dZS%

Almost a 15% difference in the zone starts in the offensive zone will drastically influence any advanced stats. The statistical probability of a goal for or a shot for in the offensive zone is obviously much higher than when starting in the defensive zone. Same thing with the high relative probability of a goal against or shot against when starting in the defensive zone. As a result zone starts difference that large can drastically alter many advanced statistics.

I would say the zone usage and very different QoC bridges the gap in any of their advanced stats.

That being said I agree that Zaitsev had a really bad year. He seems scared with the puck and would just ring it around the boards and it never made it out of the zone. He also had terrible positioning and never made himself open for a pass.

However he had a tough year with injuries and off ice stuff. When you combined that with his rookie season where he faced some of the toughest QoC in the league and did pretty well I would say there is a fair shout he will rebound to a good 2nd pairing guy. I don't think Carrick is there yet. He is a good 3rd pairing guy with potential. Just wasn't used as Babcock wanted someone physical in that #6 spot.

Im not suggesting we take Z out of the lineup and put Carrick in his place. Im saying that Z has proven he isn't good enough for the role he is currently in, and needs to be a bottom-pair guy. I believe Carrick is better suited for that role.

This is all assuming Dubas finds a competent player for Rielly's pairing (Pysyk, Tanev, Pesce, Faulk). If not, we'll either have to suffer through Z/Hainsey playing too tough comp, or hope they can pull it together.

 

[Hclass47]

He moves the puck well but I’m surprised no one has mentioned his size. Hes always a target when he’s on the ice and consistently takes a beating from the opposition. Hence Polak playing in front of him. If Justin or Igor show well in camp and show a little bit of grit I can see one of them playing ahead of Connor.

 

[Liminality]

He moves the puck well but I’m surprised no one has mentioned his size. Hes always a target when he’s on the ice and consistently takes a beating from the opposition. Hence Polak playing in front of him. If Justin or Igor show well in camp and show a little bit of grit I can see one of them playing ahead of Connor.

That's funny cause Carrick is the type of guy who doesn't really back down from anyone. He's pretty in your face and gritty for a player his size.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Im not suggesting we take Z out of the lineup and put Carrick in his place. Im saying that Z has proven he isn't good enough for the role he is currently in, and needs to be a bottom-pair guy. I believe Carrick is better suited for that role.

This is all assuming Dubas finds a competent player for Rielly's pairing (Pysyk, Tanev, Pesce, Faulk). If not, we'll either have to suffer through Z/Hainsey playing too tough comp, or hope they can pull it together.

I mean your original post was that you would rather have Carrick in the line than Zaitsev at this point. I disagree. I think any way you slice it Zaitsev is a better defender than Carrick at this point and I'm a fan of Carrick.

Zaitsev performed admirably in a 1st pairing role then had a rough sophomore year on the 2nd pairing and your writing him off as a 3rd pairing defender. Doesn't make sense to me at all, he had one good season and one bad season.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

That's funny cause Carrick is the type of guy who doesn't really back down from anyone. He's pretty in your face and gritty for a player his size.

Sometimes it is not about the size of the dog in the fight it is about the size of the fight in the dog.

 

[Liminality]

Sometimes it is not about the size of the dog in the fight it is about the size of the fight in the dog.

Exactly. I don't think that translates into being a good defender but he does push back in those situations.

 

[Mess]

Sometimes it is not about the size of the dog in the fight it is about the size of the fight in the dog.

Not sure that matters as Babcock keeps him well leashed in the pressbox.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Not sure that matters as Babcock keeps him well leashed in the pressbox.

Polak is more defensively inclined so I get it sort of, also Babcock probably didn't want a very young third pairing of Dermott and Carrick. However I expect we will see Dermott and Carrick on the third pairing this year.

 

[Mess]

Polak is more defensively inclined so I get it sort of, also Babcock probably didn't want a very young third pairing of Dermott and Carrick. However I expect we will see Dermott and Carrick on the third pairing this year.

Babcock is likely hoping Dubas can bring in some defenseman help so he doesn't need to play Carrick at all next year.