Manitoba Moose 2018-19 Season

[Whileee]

As even the developer of that model would tell you:
1) It's descriptive, not predictive (it uses on-ice GF/60 RAPM without any sh% regression as a large source of offense)
2) It's not relative to ice time (Ex: Petan has a higher GAR/60 than Lemieux)
3) RAPM would be the model you would use for that type of analysis to test your hypothesis.

RAPM:

Thanks for the important clarification. Any way to stratify the data to see if what looks like improvement in Lemieux' effectiveness is bearing out in the analytics?

I like your idea of trying Petan up the lineup, or perhaps like this...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Petan-Copp-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Appleton

 

[KingBogo]

Thanks for the important clarification. Any way to stratify the data to see if what looks like improvement in Lemieux' effectiveness is bearing out in the analytics?

I like your idea of trying Petan up the lineup, or perhaps like this...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Petan-Copp-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Appleton

Maybe I'm not following along on all parts of the discussion but our preferred lineup no longer includes Connor?

 

[Whileee]

Maybe I'm not following along on all parts of the discussion but our preferred lineup no longer includes Connor?

Oof... Too many NHL wingers.

 

[garret9]

if only tanev was as good as petan.never mind roslovic or Lemieux.

Tanev has better xGoals, just not better Corsi.

Your milage may vary on that difference.

If you'd like to learn more:
Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

 

[garret9]

Thanks for the important clarification. Any way to stratify the data to see if what looks like improvement in Lemieux' effectiveness is bearing out in the analytics?

I like your idea of trying Petan up the lineup, or perhaps like this...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Petan-Copp-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Appleton

Plus Connor.

Tanev is weakest link in your line up, but neither Petan nor Roslovic I think "fit" on the Lowry line for role... so Petan or Roslovic may have to sit... then again... I don't think they'd do bad.

Interestingly enough, and a random aside, I noticed Roslovic had a similar (albeit smaller) gap between xG and Corsi last year as well.

This year +1.18, -1.85
Last year +0.67, -1.14

Maybe I'm not following along on all parts of the discussion but our preferred lineup no longer includes Connor?

I think that was a mistake.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Thanks for the important clarification. Any way to stratify the data to see if what looks like improvement in Lemieux' effectiveness is bearing out in the analytics?

I like your idea of trying Petan up the lineup, or perhaps like this...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Petan-Copp-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Appleton

Close if you take Petan out and put in Connor I think you've got it.

 

[Whileee]

One thing has really emerged for me in the past couple of years... Lowry and Copp are really good 3/4 centres. I think Copp can probably play "up" to 2C at times because of his speed and general smarts. Both of them are really good defensively.

 

[ffh]

Tanev has better xGoals, just not better Corsi.

Your milage may vary on that difference.

If you'd like to learn more:
Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

based on the data. simple question then of the 2 who is the better hockey player. on your team does petan start over tanev if only 1 roster spot remained or does tanev start.

 

[garret9]

One thing has really emerged for me in the past couple of years... Lowry and Copp are really good 3/4 centres. I think Copp can probably play "up" to 2C at times because of his speed and general smarts. Both of them are really good defensively.

View attachment 179551

They are elite defenders.

 

[garret9]

based on the data. simple question then of the 2 who is the better hockey player. on your team does petan start over tanev if only 1 roster spot remained or does tanev start.

The true answer is it depends. Life is always more nuanced than simple. A lot of it comes down to role.

Tanev has better defensive results and better at drawing penalties. While RAPM is better than any other system or eye test at getting rid of the dirty collinearity in hockey, I do hypothesize that high amount of ice time with Lowry/Copp has bled some of their positive results to him.

Combining offense and defense, Petan has better overall results.

If I was talking about any other line than Lowry's line, I say Petan 365 days /365.
Lowry's line is a tougher call... and I probably go with Tanev... depending on the other winger.

 

[voyageur]

Back to the Moose:



Poolman looks like he is getting up to speed. I wonder if Logan Shaw will get any games with the Jets this year.

 

[Whileee]

Back to the Moose:



Poolman looks like he is getting up to speed. I wonder if Logan Shaw will get any games with the Jets this year.

I think Poolman will be on the roster, and might even be a third pair D next season. I doubt Shaw gets games unless the Jets have a bunch of injuries.

 

[sipowicz]

Dano with a goal for the Moose day as he makes a strong case to takeover from Petan as the official PB bench warmer and 13th forward on the Jets if not this season maybe next!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Dano with a goal for the Moose day as he makes a strong case to takeover from Petan as the official PB bench warmer and 13th forward on the Jets if not this season maybe next!

I think Dano still needs to pick it up a bit - but he is an ideal PB player. He can play both wings and I think he was a C at some point so could probably fill in there in a pinch. He plays a responsible game that at least won't hurt you when you have to put him in.

 

[trebendan]

Moose snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, losing it in the last minute. Comrie with another good game, though - 30 saves on 32 shots. Poolman with another assist.

 

[ffh]

Dano with a goal for the Moose day as he makes a strong case to takeover from Petan as the official PB bench warmer and 13th forward on the Jets if not this season maybe next!

Doubt the jets qualify either of them which would make them ufa's

 

[Gil Fisher]

I would think Dano plays in Europe next year.

Comrie is up to .921 for the season. His first 100 games in the AHL were at about a .907, the last 70 at about .918. Looks like reliable enough data to say he has made a marked improvement. Happy to be wrong about his prospect status.

 

[Atoyot]

Berdin with the 34 save shutout in a 2-0 win.

 

[DK59]

Looks like Poolman is starting to play well with 6 points in the last 5 games and a +3 over that time frame. Now that he is healthy and by all appearances playing well I could see him playing a role on this team down the stretch if injuries hit. Any comments on his play from anybody who has seen him play recently?

 

[portamoral]

Looks like Poolman is starting to play well with 6 points in the last 5 games and a +3 over that time frame. Now that he is healthy and by all appearances playing well I could see him playing a role on this team down the stretch if injuries hit. Any comments on his play from anybody who has seen him play recently?

watched the game on saturday he was very good. solid at both ends, best Dman by a mile. ripped a bomb from the point for the game winner. he's easily better than morrow, chiarot, kulikov. probably myers too

stanley was also surprisingly good

as an aside, the 5 man unit of dano-shaw-griffith / schilling-poolman is probably about as elite as you're gonna get in the AHL. the talent is pretty thin after that though..

 

[Gil Fisher]

watched the game on saturday he was very good. solid at both ends, best Dman by a mile. ripped a bomb from the point for the game winner. he's easily better than morrow, chiarot, kulikov. probably myers too

stanley was also surprisingly good

as an aside, the 5 man unit of dano-shaw-griffith / schilling-poolman is probably about as elite as you're gonna get in the AHL. the talent is pretty thin after that though..

Could Shaw be an option for 4th line C next year, if we were to run two of Little/Copp/Roslovic at wing?

(Thinking that Rosie could be 2C and our shutdown could be Copp-Lowry-Little most nights next year.)

 

[portamoral]

Could Shaw be an option for 4th line C next year, if we were to run two of Little/Copp/Roslovic at wing?

(Thinking that Rosie could be 2C and our shutdown could be Copp-Lowry-Little most nights next year.)

nah. he's not much of an NHL player, especially on a team as deep as the jets. petan, dano, appleton all much better options.

he's pretty solid at the AHL level though. been a really nice addition.

 

[Whileee]

watched the game on saturday he was very good. solid at both ends, best Dman by a mile. ripped a bomb from the point for the game winner. he's easily better than morrow, chiarot, kulikov. probably myers too

stanley was also surprisingly good

as an aside, the 5 man unit of dano-shaw-griffith / schilling-poolman is probably about as elite as you're gonna get in the AHL. the talent is pretty thin after that though..

Good to hear about Poolman.

I'm high on him and see him as a natural for 3 RD on a cheap contract for the next couple of seasons.

 

[snowkiddin]

Good to hear about Poolman.

I'm high on him and see him as a natural for 3 RD on a cheap contract for the next couple of seasons.

Yeah, his contract really is sweet for us. How did we get him to agree to such a team friendly deal? I think he finishes the year
on the Moose and then moved to the Jets full time with (likely) both Trouba and Myers gone.

 

[Atoyot]

I'm in a right foul mood so here's a quick Moose recap:

Moose crushed the Wolves tonight. Poolman was the best defenseman on the ice in a game that included Brannstrom, Hague, and Niku. Stanley did some old timey hockey stuff that I like and I know others do too, however that didn't include competently playing defense. He thinks the game slowly in his own zone. Harkins had a goal and an assist but will likely never be an NHL regular. He looks good if he's given room. He barely gets enough room to look competent at an AHL level and he would get even less in the NHL. If he can learn how to slow the game around him down a lot then he might be serviceable but I do not see that happening. I left before Comrie's last goal against but he didn't have to make a single difficult save the entire game unless it happened in the last minute. Niku looked fine. Griffith and Shaw have great chemistry. That's all I've got in me right now.