Man Mountain's partner

[Scriptor]

It all depends on Jerabek status. And since no one here saw him play with the big guy, any opinion is equal to the other.

I voted Davidson as his main partner, but wouldn't be surprised to see Jerabek being paired with Weber at the end of the season on the PP and at 5-on-5.

The thing is that Weber perfect fit would be a fast skating puck moving defensman with some offense. Beaulieu had all the physical aspects required for that spot, but was missing a few key brain connections to occupy it properly.

That's why right now I feel that Davidson will be the main partner for Weber this Fall... but to be honnest, I expect each and every L-D-man to play with him at some point.

Sounds right to me. A by committee approach, at least to start the year.

 

[Deebs]

The timeframe also benefits Weber over Chara.

Should do it from their 1st full NHL season to age 32 (Shea's current age) just to see

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Should do it from their 1st full NHL season to age 32 (Shea's current age) just to see

Not sure this will have the desired effect, as Weber was already a 1st team all-star with 3 top 10 Norris finishes by the age that Chara got his first Norris vote.

 

[Deebs]

Not sure this will have the desired effect, as Weber was already a 1st team all-star with 3 top 10 Norris finishes by the age that Chara got his first Norris vote.

Not sure it matters what their accolades are, it's more so just a comparison at the same age. Like I said in one of my other posts, it's nearly impossible to find fair ground, so it's more just for craps and giggles.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Not sure it matters what their accolades are, it's more so just a comparison at the same age. Like I said in one of my other posts, it's nearly impossible to find fair ground, so it's more just for craps and giggles.

Well, in the name of craps and giggles, then...

Active defensemen, from any age to 32:

Goals: 1st Weber 183 (2nd Bufyglien 150, 7th Chara 111)
Points: 1st Weber 485 (2nd Phaneuf 462, 15th Chara 363)
Shots: 2nd Weber 2235 (1st Phaneuf 2300, 5th Chara 1735)
(S/game: Weber 4th, Chara 28th)
(S%: Weber 6th, Chara 39th)
HR Point shares: 1st Weber 99.2 (2nd Suter 88.1, 8th Chara 77.6)

Norris finishes:
Weber 17, 4, 7, 2, 2, 8, 3, 4, 10, 6
Chara 4, 20, 3, 1, 8

 

[Captain Mountain]

They are certainly the most important metrics by which these guys are measured. Go ahead and add to it, then, instead of making lazy jabs at it. I'll grab another coffee.

So, in your estimation, the most valuable metrics to grading two-way defensemen with heavy shots are: (a) goals; (b) points per game; (c) Shots per game; (d) HR Point Shares (which is a hollistic metric with shoddy support); and (e) Norris voting?

Two out of your five metrics aren't even real metrics.

How about Chara, who has always been a strong possession player and relative possession player compared to Weber, both in tough minutes.

Chara: CF%=53.9%, CFRel=1.6
Weber: CF%=50.7%, CFRel=-0.5

Your also completely ignoring how good prime Chara was at moving the puck, something that has never really been part of Weber's game.

 

[Deebs]

Well, in the name of craps and giggles, then...

Active defensemen, from any age to 32:

Goals: 1st Weber 183 (2nd Bufyglien 150, 7th Chara 111)
Points: 1st Weber 485 (2nd Phaneuf 462, 15th Chara 363)
Shots: 2nd Weber 2235 (1st Phaneuf 2300, 5th Chara 1735)
(S/game: Weber 4th, Chara 28th)
(S%: Weber 6th, Chara 39th)
HR Point shares: 1st Weber 99.2 (2nd Suter 88.1, 8th Chara 77.6)

Norris finishes:
Weber 17, 4, 7, 2, 2, 8, 3, 4, 10, 6
Chara 4, 20, 3, 1, 8

Check out Neon Dion in some of those categories, lol.

Kind of neat to see those numbers, thanks for looking them up. Shea has had an excellent career to date and hopefully he keeps it up for the next few years and then turns into a defensive specialist like Z over his last half dozen years or so.

Brains can go a long ways in the NHL on defense.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

So, in your estimation, the most valuable metrics to grading two-way defensemen with heavy shots are: (a) goals; (b) points per game; (c) Shots per game; (d) HR Point Shares (which is a hollistic metric with shoddy support); and (e) Norris voting?

Yes. You'll find that a lot of any player's worth - particularly top line/pairing players - hinges very much on goals and points, as well as factoring into major award voting. Significantly, Weber runs away from the pack in those two categories in particular. Not just leads; runs away.

Two out of your five metrics aren't even real metrics.

Sure they aren't...

How about Chara, who has always been a strong possession player and relative possession player compared to Weber, both in tough minutes.

Chara: CF%=53.9%, CFRel=1.6
Weber: CF%=50.7%, CFRel=-0.5

Okay, now take your CF% and attempt to rank even just the top 10 defensemen in the league with it. I've got my coffee, and I'm ready for a good laugh. People really have to stop using corsi as a proxy for actual possession. It seemed like a good idea at the time (years ago when it was new), but we all know (or should know) better by now.

Your also completely ignoring how good prime Chara was at moving the puck, something that has never really been part of Weber's game.

I don't know where your romanticized version of Chara as a puck mover comes from, but both guys have always gotten the puck moving up the ice pretty much the same way: take ice when they give it to you, never overplaying the puck, and smart simple passes to skilled forwards whenever possible. If Chara was so much better moving the puck, it's highly unlikely that Weber would actually be the guy with 50 more assists by age 32 (as is the case, 302 to 252).

 

[aresknights]

He is an off the glass kind of guy. Or get it to my partner kind of guy. So is Weber, so is Benn.. so essentially, unless Alzner plays with Petry, there's no hope of getting out successfully.

But here's the rub. Alzner isn't a good skater. So I dump it into his corner and I have my retrieval forwards attack him while cutting off the lane to Petry. Killing the Habs possible transition, causing a turnover or simply stripping Alzner because of his lack of grip strength.


He legitimately sucks.

Im not arguing wether Alzner is a good fit on our D. Ill let that play out first before judging.

But there are other ways to clear a zone than the couple effective ways you gave. If the retrievers attack the dump in ( more teams are trying to carry the zone as a trend thou)
And you are quick enough to cut off the other D for an outlet you can bring your C down lower as an option, heck even the strong side wing. Have the weakside blast thru the centre or to strong side for a pass to exit the zone. For every way to attack there is a counter and vice versa. Its not rocket science. All staffs know these things. Its getting the buy in. Its about playing your systems and matching at a higher raye than opponent.
Or just being good enough to impose your will.

 

[Price is Wright]

The gang in March: Benn is amazing, what a steal!

The gang in April: it doesn't matter that Benn was one of our worst D men in the playoffs! He was really good after being traded! That never happens to players!

Yeah, this was a Hab fan posting on the Stars board in April: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2218871

Not trying to stir up anything in the slightest here.

I want to know why Jordie, who's been insanely good for the Habs and now in a top 4 role with Jeff Petry, was even on Nill's trade list to begin with?

What was so bad about his game that made him expendable? I have feeling that will pick Benn over Beaulieu on the protected player list next month.

Again, I'm not here to annoy or make fun of anyone.

Thanks guys.

"Insanely Good"

 

[Drew4u]

I'm suprised many people are voting Alzner. He is pretty much Girardi 2.0.

 

[Kant Think]

I've voted Streit, not because I want him there, but because I think this is what's going to happen.

I hope to Godot that I'm wrong, but then again the comedic value of it all may just make the season interesting.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

So, in your estimation, the most valuable metrics to grading two-way defensemen with heavy shots are: (a) goals; (b) points per game; (c) Shots per game; (d) HR Point Shares (which is a hollistic metric with shoddy support); and (e) Norris voting?

Two out of your five metrics aren't even real metrics.

How about Chara, who has always been a strong possession player and relative possession player compared to Weber, both in tough minutes.

Chara: CF%=53.9%, CFRel=1.6
Weber: CF%=50.7%, CFRel=-0.5

Your also completely ignoring how good prime Chara was at moving the puck, something that has never really been part of Weber's game.

You forget OJ's long history of touting GA/60 as an important stat.

Chara was basically the best goals against defenseman of the modern era. He consistently elevated both his team's goals for and goals against rates to a considerable degree over large sample sizes, something Shea Weber hasn't been consistently successful at. Its why from the period between he started with the Bruins in 06-07 to his last great season in 13-14 Zdeno Chara was a combined +140 (2nd amoungst defensemen over that time frame after Lidstrom).


Zdeno Chara was a force. He was the best even strength defenseman in the league once Lidstrom retired and it showed by how consistently his team played incredibly well with him on the ice. The only times Shea Weber has provided that level of a boost to his team was when he was paired with Ryan Suter at the very peak of his career.


Chara was a giant of the sport, a legitimate superstar, in a way Shea Weber simply isn't and won't be for Montreal going forward. When Chara went on the ice he controlled what happened to an extraordinary degree. To suggest they are comparable because Weber is good at getting power play goals and the media loves him his bogus. They're simply not on at a similar level of performance.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

The gang in March: Benn is amazing, what a steal!

The gang in April: it doesn't matter that Benn was one of our worst D men in the playoffs! He was really good after being traded! That never happens to players!

And then other people saying a guy who had played over 300 games in the league was just in the NHL because his brother is Jamie Benn.

 

[Wats]

You forget OJ's long history of touting GA/60 as an important stat.

Chara was basically the best goals against defenseman of the modern era. He consistently elevated both his team's goals for and goals against rates to a considerable degree over large sample sizes, something Shea Weber hasn't been consistently successful at. Its why from the period between he started with the Bruins in 06-07 to his last great season in 13-14 Zdeno Chara was a combined +140 (2nd amoungst defensemen over that time frame after Lidstrom).


Zdeno Chara was a force. He was the best even strength defenseman in the league once Lidstrom retired and it showed by how consistently his team played incredibly well with him on the ice. The only times Shea Weber has provided that level of a boost to his team was when he was paired with Ryan Suter at the very peak of his career.


Chara was a giant of the sport, a legitimate superstar, in a way Shea Weber simply isn't and won't be for Montreal going forward. When Chara went on the ice he controlled what happened to an extraordinary degree. To suggest they are comparable because Weber is good at getting power play goals and the media loves him his bogus. They're simply not on at a similar level of performance.

I'd say Weber is a legitimate superstar. Chara is just a surefire hall of famer. Weber does not compare in terms of consistent ES and playoff impact (offense and defense) but hopefully he can match the longevity. At least people stopped comparing Weber to Pronger, nos that was a joke. Chara, I can at least understand.

 

[Toene]

You forget OJ's long history of touting GA/60 as an important stat.

Chara was basically the best goals against defenseman of the modern era. He consistently elevated both his team's goals for and goals against rates to a considerable degree over large sample sizes, something Shea Weber hasn't been consistently successful at. Its why from the period between he started with the Bruins in 06-07 to his last great season in 13-14 Zdeno Chara was a combined +140 (2nd amoungst defensemen over that time frame after Lidstrom).


Zdeno Chara was a force. He was the best even strength defenseman in the league once Lidstrom retired and it showed by how consistently his team played incredibly well with him on the ice. The only times Shea Weber has provided that level of a boost to his team was when he was paired with Ryan Suter at the very peak of his career.


Chara was a giant of the sport, a legitimate superstar, in a way Shea Weber simply isn't and won't be for Montreal going forward. When Chara went on the ice he controlled what happened to an extraordinary degree. To suggest they are comparable because Weber is good at getting power play goals and the media loves him his bogus. They're simply not on at a similar level of performance.

Not sure if you're serious. I'm not the biggest Weber fan but the guy is one of the best d-men since the 05 lock-out. Reliable, physical, productive... the exact same words Id use to describe Chara...

 

[Belial]

Well the numbers suggest that he is...

Apparently he had injury issues last year. Maybe he'll be a little better. But he's nowhere near Markov. For the life of me I can't figure out how this guy was some kind of priority for us.

GF/60 this season:

Orlov 3.1
Orpik 3.0
Schmidt 3.0
Alzner 2.8
Niskanen 2.8
Carlson 2.7
Shattenkirk 2.5

No, because his ice-time clearly indicates that he wasn't on the top-pair. And the argument is that he isn't top-4 is that while he played top competition, he also got run over defensively and got carried offensively. Anyone can get their ***** pushed in against top competition, that's what Montreal used Emelin for.

Ok, tell me who was Washington's first pair of D?

 

[RickP]

Okay, now take your CF% and attempt to rank even just the top 10 defensemen in the league with it. I've got my coffee, and I'm ready for a good laugh. People really have to stop using corsi as a proxy for actual possession. It seemed like a good idea at the time (years ago when it was new), but we all know (or should know) better by now.

CF% is a % stat, so someone may play 1 game and have a 100% CF%. So it's important to take a look at time on ice.

If someone plays 12-13 minutes per game (5 on 5) and has a 60% CF%, good for him, but that obviously doesn't mean he's better than top pairing Ds who have a worse CF%.

If you look at CF% leaders and TOI leaders, you get Dmen like:

Doughty
Subban
Burns
Ekholm
Hedman
Letang
Josi

Sure, you may also find names that don't belong there (like Petry), but it's the same with every stats. Look at +/-, David Savard is 2nd in the league. He's great, but yeah, he's not a top 10 Dman.

If you look at points, you get Shattenkirk at #4. Again, he's great, but he's not a top 10 Dman (IMO).

 

[Price is Wright]

Ok, tell me who was Washington's first pair of D?

When the Caps season began (vs. Penguins 10/13):

Alzner - Niskanen
Orlov - Carlson
Orpik - Schmidt

Around December he was moved to Carlson's line while Orlov moved up to Niskanen. Trotz would play them around the same minutes.

Post-Shattenkirk (Coach Trotz was basically playing each pairing evenly)

Orlov - Niskanen
Alzner - Carlson
Orpik - Shattenkirk

Playoffs (Game 7 vs. Pens)

Orlov - Niskanen
Orpik - Carlson
Schmidt - Shattenkirk
Alzner (as 7th D)

He was often scratched for Schmidt in the playoffs, "healthy" or otherwise. Hence why he only played 7 games. His TOI/G took a nosedive as well as the season wore on.

October - December: 20:16 (3rd among Caps D)
January - March: 19:26 (5th among Caps D, he was also 5th in ES TOI/G but 2nd in SH TOI/G. As I said, Trotz tried balanced pairings so six D averaged between 18-22 minutes total TOI/G)
Playoffs: 15:45 (last among Caps D in all minute categories except 1st in SH TOI/G)

 

[Belial]

When the Caps season began (vs. Penguins 10/13):

Alzner - Niskanen
Orlov - Carlson
Orpik - Schmidt

Around December he was moved to Carlson's line while Orlov moved up to Niskanen. Trotz would play them around the same minutes.

Post-Shattenkirk (Coach Trotz was basically playing each pairing evenly)

Orlov - Niskanen
Alzner - Carlson
Orpik - Shattenkirk

Playoffs (Game 7 vs. Pens)

Orlov - Niskanen
Orpik - Carlson
Schmidt - Shattenkirk
Alzner (as 7th D)

He was often scratched for Schmidt in the playoffs, "healthy" or otherwise. Hence why he only played 7 games. His TOI/G took a nosedive as well as the season wore on.

October - December: 20:16 (3rd among Caps D)
January - March: 19:26 (5th among Caps D, he was also 5th in ES TOI/G but 2nd in SH TOI/G. As I said, Trotz tried balanced pairings so six D averaged between 18-22 minutes total TOI/G)
Playoffs: 15:45 (last among Caps D in all minute categories except 1st in SH TOI/G)

I think it was made clear that he was injured during the PO, I don't know why you bring up his minutes...

And for the rest of the season, it just proves my point.

I guess you could argue it was an #1A and #1B with Orlov because they ended up with roughly the same TOI/GP at the end of the season but if you take a look at the quality of the opposition it was Alzner that was on the ice against the Crosby, McDavid, Tavares, Bergeron, Giroux, O'Reilly and Malkin of this world and not Orlov.

 

[Link67]

CF% is a % stat, so someone may play 1 game and have a 100% CF%. So it's important to take a look at time on ice.

If someone plays 12-13 minutes per game (5 on 5) and has a 60% CF%, good for him, but that obviously doesn't mean he's better than top pairing Ds who have a worse CF%.

If you look at CF% leaders and TOI leaders, you get Dmen like:

Doughty
Subban
Burns
Ekholm
Hedman
Letang
Josi

Sure, you may also find names that don't belong there (like Petry), but it's the same with every stats. Look at +/-, David Savard is 2nd in the league. He's great, but yeah, he's not a top 10 Dman.

If you look at points, you get Shattenkirk at #4. Again, he's great, but he's not a top 10 Dman (IMO).

And to show you the Flip Side of that stat, and how it CANNOT be used as the main tool to judge a Dman's value and worth, take a look at some of the absolute Studs with worse CF% than even Weber.

Shea Weber= CF%: 51.3 TOI: 25:05
Eric Karlsson= CF%: 50.3 TOI: 26:50
Ryan Sutter= CF%: 50.2 TOI: 26:56
Duncan Keith= CF%:50.7 TOI: 25:37
Alex Pietrangelo = CF%:50.2 TOI: 25:17
Ryan McDonagh= CF%: 46.7 TOI: 24:21


The eye test counts for a lot too, Hockey knowledge while watching the game is almost more important than any stat, but the proper combination of Visual and Statistical Judgment trumps all. The list of Killers I just presented would be welcome on my D-core at any time, arms wide open, but if you evaluate them based on CF%, they would be considered poison to any team. I know from watching them over the years, they are all top tier Dmen, most of them are the #1 Dman on their respective team. I will not sit here and pretend to even consider their CF% makes them terrible no more than I would consider the CF% of the players you mentioned makes them GOATs.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

GF/60 this season:

Orlov 3.1
Orpik 3.0
Schmidt 3.0
Alzner 2.8
Niskanen 2.8
Carlson 2.7
Shattenkirk 2.5

Meaningless. He isn't going to get that here. And based on the numbers we've seen he's going to give up a lot more chances than he creates.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I have to disagree as I think their careers have been pretty much on par with each other at the same age. Now, Z has been on the better teams throughout his career, but nevertheless.

I'd give the edge offensively to Shea while Big Z holds it defensively.

If those two ever played together during their respective primes, it would be a greatest shutdown pair of all time

Chara was much, much better defensively.

Since Weber's rookie season ('05/06)

Goals:
Weber 183
Chara 147

Points/PPG:
Weber 485/0.58
Chara 472/0.53

Shots/Shots per game/%:
Weber 2235/2.66/8.2%
Chara 2288/2.57/6.4%

HR Point shares:
Weber 99.2
Chara 100.9

Norris finishes:
Weber DNF, DNF, 17, 4, 7, 2, 2, 8, 3, 4, 10, 6
Chara 4, 20, 3, 1, 8, 3, 3, 5, 2, DNF, DNF, DNF

Aside from actually winning the Norris once instead of finishing 2nd a second time, there is absolutely nothing "significantly better" one from the other, especially during their career overlap.

Shea Weber was great with Suter. After that? Not so much.

As has been said many times, his value comes from his shot. He's great at scoring PP goals. Apart from that I'll take Chara all day long.

 

[RickP]

And to show you the Flip Side of that stat, and how it CANNOT be used as the main tool to judge a Dman's value and worth, take a look at some of the absolute Studs with worse CF% than even Weber.

Shea Weber= CF%: 51.3 TOI: 25:05
Eric Karlsson= CF%: 50.3 TOI: 26:50
Ryan Sutter= CF%: 50.2 TOI: 26:56
Duncan Keith= CF%:50.7 TOI: 25:37
Alex Pietrangelo = CF%:50.2 TOI: 25:17
Ryan McDonagh= CF%: 46.7 TOI: 24:21


The eye test counts for a lot too, Hockey knowledge while watching the game is almost more important than any stat, but the proper combination of Visual and Statistical Judgment trumps all. The list of Killers I just presented would be welcome on my D-core at any time, arms wide open, but if you evaluate them based on CF%, they would be considered poison to any team. I know from watching them over the years, they are all top tier Dmen, most of them are the #1 Dman on their respective team. I will not sit here and pretend to even consider their CF% makes them terrible no more than I would consider the CF% of the players you mentioned makes them GOATs.

Yeah a stat tells you one thing, but you can't use one stat to decide if a player is good. Like you said, the eye test is much more important than any stat.

I think CF% is a very relevant stat, and you have to give credit to those who are the top, but you still have to look at the big picture, just like every other stats.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Chara was much, much better defensively.

He was better defensively by about the amount that Weber has been better offensively by the same stage of their careers. As of right now, obviously, Chara barely registers for comparison. There's no "much, much" between them in either direction. That's just foolish to suggest, and the only people I've seen exaggerate to that extent are the ones with the most blatantly obvious agendas/biases behind their posting.

Shea Weber was great with Suter. After that? Not so much.

Yeah, I mean, finishing in the top 10 of Norris voting literally every year since is probably not "great". Neither is consecutive 2nd team all-star finishes after Suter's departure. Or posting THE lowest GA numbers in the league this past season. Probably just "okay", when you think about it.

As has been said many times, his value comes from his shot. He's great at scoring PP goals. Apart from that I'll take Chara all day long.

Maybe YOU keep saying his value comes mainly from his shot. Pretty sure he hasn't been anchoring all those PK duties over the years with the expectation his shot will come in handy, though, for just one example among many...