Value of: Make a Trade with Washington

[Revelation]

I would offer a pretty penny from Calgary for Tom Wilson.

Shame that the only penny pretty enough is about to make twice what he's making

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

What kind of contract is Connolly expected/expecting to get?

He'll get at least $4mm/year, I would think. Wouldn't be surprised if he got $20mm or more from someone desperate for scoring or a team that thinks he can be a 2RW. If he wants to stay in Washington it'll have to be for less total money and even then probably spread out over more term.

 

[txpd]

Rubtsov or Vorobyev + #41?

We'll also throw in Hagg who can replace Orpik.

There is no replacing Orpik. Certainly not with a throw in

 

[txpd]

, I say do it.

I am saying MacLellan isn't going to do it. You might but he wont. You can make a good case either way but MacLellan hasn't shown any signs of throwing everything in for one more shot. Its my read that he thinks the team can be kept competitive for the rest of Ov's career and he will need that first round pick.

Either he will trade or he wont. We will see. Right?

 

[Tripod]

Ideally I think they'd want a higher upside forward prospect from an offensive production standpoint but something like this is sensible if they can't get more of a blue chipper and they're intent on moving him. Not sure they'd deal inside the division or if those two centers would carry as much value with only 4C maybe somewhat free but Hagg at $1.15M would have some value for them if Orpik goes. Decent offer.

So to expand on that offer:

Rubtsov or Vorobyev + #41 + Hagg + Laczynski

Adding Laczynski gives the Caps a prospect with 2nd line upside added to the deal. Playing on college he had:

2 years ago 32 pts in 34 games
1 year ago 47 pts in 41 games
This year 30 pts in 27 games

 

[Langway]

As far as package deals go it's not bad. I'd probably still take more of a slam dunk type top six forward prospect if offered but this would perhaps give them two immediately useful depth contributors and PKers on the cheap and then a couple of prospects going forward. It's a better deal than they got for Johansson, though the timing forced their hand somewhat on that one. Not sure they'd get anything too much better as far as futures are concerned and that's likely their primary objective along with opening up cap space. I'm not sure they need to target quantity over quality or anything but the quality isn't too bad and also helps them a bit immediately. It's the type of deal I could see them doing at least.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Caps won't trade Orlov - that'd be dumb. He's our #2 d-man and cost-controlled for years, while about to hit his prime.

 

[YP44]

any interest in Kovalchuk with ~$2M retained?

Was rumored to be interest at the deadline in him with that retention. Not sure if Washington was in on him but I could see them be.

 

[txpd]

Caps won't trade Orlov - that'd be dumb. He's our #2 d-man and cost-controlled for years, while about to his his prime.

Simple questions. Which is easier to replace? The lead defenseman on your shutdown pair and your 1st pk. The player who is either 1st or 2nd in toi in each game played or the wing man on the shutdown pair that plays in no other defensive situations and rarely on the pp?? Second question. How many 2d are neither on the pp1 as a primary player or on the pk1 as a primary player?

 

[txpd]

As far as package deals go it's not bad. I'd probably still take more of a slam dunk type top six forward prospect if offered.

Clearly MacLellan wants to adjust the salary cap structure and trading Niskanen for futures like that makes perfect sense. A top 6 forward prospect ready for NHL call up games but not projected as a regular rookie til 2020-2021 fits the bill. That creates enough cap space for a $3m defensive defenseman for shutdown and pk and $2m for a decent pk forward for the bottom 6.

 

[Curufinwe]

Ideally I think they'd want a higher upside forward prospect from an offensive production standpoint but something like this is sensible if they can't get more of a blue chipper and they're intent on moving him. Not sure they'd deal inside the division or if those two centers would carry as much value with only 4C maybe somewhat free but Hagg at $1.15M would have some value for them if Orpik goes. Decent offer.

I don't think Frost, Farabee or Ratcliffe would be on the table, so I went with the best of the rest that are signed. Plus Russians seem to do well in Washington.

 

[Deen]

Shame that the only penny pretty enough is about to make twice what he's making

Not sure he is worth Tkachuk. In fact I know he isn't. It would be like Valimaki from our side.

 

[Hivemind]

So to expand on that offer:

Rubtsov or Vorobyev + #41 + Hagg + Laczynski

Adding Laczynski gives the Caps a prospect with 2nd line upside added to the deal. Playing on college he had:

2 years ago 32 pts in 34 games
1 year ago 47 pts in 41 games
This year 30 pts in 27 games

Quantity doesn't make up for quality. Frost or Farabee.

 

[Tripod]

Quantity doesn't make up for quality. Frost or Farabee.

Then it's an easy no.

We were all going off the Muzzin return as a comparable...3 assets for 1. I added Laczynski to give the Caps another cheap prospect with 2nd line upside.

Teams don't trade A assets for 1-2 year rentals.

 

[Langway]

I don't think Frost, Farabee or Ratcliffe would be on the table, so I went with the best of the rest that are signed. Plus Russians seem to do well in Washington.

Ratcliffe probably should be, esp. if they take yet another forward at 11. If they're after top prospects over picks or other returns then Ratcliffe probably could be beaten by a team like Dallas if they're so inclined.

I don't know if Rubtsov is on the level of Durzi or Grundstrom per se but Niskanen is also older than Muzzin. Whoever they pick at 41 would probably be the best player included if they shoot for upside there. Rubtsov or Vorobyov could help kill penalties and maybe give them a shutdown depth presence in the future. I think quantity could beat quality if the market isn't as strong as they'd hope and the right fit lines up. Something like that could be more appealing than a package of picks that are all further off anyway.

 

[Hivemind]

Then it's an easy no.

We were all going off the Muzzin return as a comparable...3 assets for 1. I added Laczynski to give the Caps another cheap prospect with 2nd line upside.

Teams don't trade A assets for 1-2 year rentals.

Laczynski is returning to Ohio State for his senior season, and will be a UFA next summer. He has little value without an NHL contract, because he can simply walk away from the Flyers (or whoever trades for him) after he completes his senior season.

"Rentals" typically refer to players on expiring contracts acquired at or near the trade deadline. Niskanen has a full 2 seasons remaining on his contract (which is a nice blend of having time remaining and not being weighted down into a long-term contract that could become an albatross as the player ages). "A assets" are absolutely traded in that type of scenario. A single season of Max Pac brought back Nick Suzuki. Two years of Schenn fetched you guys two first round picks. 1.5 seasons of Duchene got Colorado Samuel Girard and a 1st. Two years of Niskanen is precisely the type of scenario in which the Flyers could convert some of their copious prospect assets into NHL assets. The Capitals don't absolutely need to trade Niskanen, you have to make it worth the Capitals' while (and especially for an in-division trade).

 

[Revelation]

Not sure he is worth Tkachuk. In fact I know he isn't. It would be like Valimaki from our side.

I'd rather have Wilson at 5 million through his prime over Tkachuk at 9-10. That's too much of a difference in cap hit and Wilson brings some valuable things Tkachuk doesn't (and vice versa)

Valimaki would be a non starter unless we were expressly shopping him, it would be like trading Samsonov for Monahan if Calgary was organizationally strong in goal.

 

[Curufinwe]

Laczynski is returning to Ohio State for his senior season, and will be a UFA next summer. He has little value without an NHL contract, because he can simply walk away from the Flyers (or whoever trades for him) after he completes his senior season.

Allison or Laczynski would only be traded if they were ready to sign with the team trading for them.

That's what the Flyers did with Marody last year.

Cooper Marody Trades - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Simple questions. Which is easier to replace? The lead defenseman on your shutdown pair and your 1st pk. The player who is either 1st or 2nd in toi in each game played or the wing man on the shutdown pair that plays in no other defensive situations and rarely on the pp?? Second question. How many 2d are neither on the pp1 as a primary player or on the pk1 as a primary player?

You keep talking about replacing Niskanen like we're talking about the Niskanen of 2017-18. He was bad most of last year and there's no guarantee that's not a sign of things to come. He may just be on his last legs, unfortunately.

Simple question: who do you think will be better value in terms of their contract and contributions from the 2019-20 season onward, Niskanen or Orlov?

 

[miscs75]

How did Burakovsky play under Trotz? I could see the Isles possibly going after him if it’s a buy low type of trade since it’s within the division.

 

[txpd]

You keep talking about replacing Niskanen like we're talking about the Niskanen of 2017-18. He was bad most of last year and there's no guarantee that's not a sign of things to come. He may just be on his last legs, unfortunately.

Simple question: who do you think will be better value in terms of their contract and contributions from the 2019-20 season onward, Niskanen or Orlov?

1. Answer to your question. Orlov because Orlov has "onward". Niskanen has 2 years left. That said I am concerned about winning next year and not concerned about contract value in 20-21 right now.

2 Yes, I am talking about replacing Niskanen. 17 18 or 18 19. I don't care. Whether his game devolved or he bounces back the fact is that his minutes need to be replaced if he is traded. Orlov doesn't do that. Niskanen was 2nd on the team in TOI/G. Niskanen lead the team in SHTOI/G. Orpik was 2nd. Orlov doesn't play SH.

Are you in that group of people that thinks Orlov is an ace defender that was being saved from that for other duty??

 

[txpd]

How did Burakovsky play under Trotz? I could see the Isles possibly going after him if it’s a buy low type of trade since it’s within the division.

Erratically. He would play badly enough every season to take a series of healthy scratches. He would balance that with a hot streak. No difference year to year

 

[Hivemind]

@txpd The Capitals literally won the Cup while Orlov was playing regular PK shifts during that playoff run. Stop basing your entire opinion around SHTOI stats that suit your narrative.

 

[Silky mitts]

What's Washington want from Edmonton for Burakovsky?

Ask for a 4th take a 5th

 

[txpd]

@txpd The Capitals literally won the Cup while Orlov was playing regular PK shifts during that playoff run. Stop basing your entire opinion around SHTOI stats that suite your narrative.

Orlov was 4th among defense that playoffs. Niskanen and Orpik played more then 3 mins per game. Orlov played 1.5mins per game. This is because Kempny and Djoos were worse. This past playoffs Orlov didn't play pk. We have established that.

Are you seriously suggesting that with Niskanen AND Orpik gone the Caps are good in pk and critical defensive situations because they have Orlov??