Proposal: MacKinnon for Hanifin +

[Cousin Eddie]

Okay, but if Hanifin hasn't proven to be anything other than a bottom pairing defenseman (which he hasn't but I digress), why are Avs fans so desperate to get him in return for a 26-year old #1C who has the 5th most ES points among all NHL centres in the last 4 years, is the best faceoff man in the NHL and is good enough to be on HC's roster for events like the World Cup and Olympics? Seems a little bit of an underwhelming return, no?

Yes, our risk is "exponentially greater" because there is a legitimate chance that the player we're acquiring isn't even on the team in 2 seasons. We have everything to lose here. You'd have Hanifin under team control for at least 4-5 years and the odds of him not showing any growth are minuscule. Even then, you still get a 3-4 defenseman for the foreseeable future. Something is always better than nothing.

Because it's worth the risk with the Avs having other depth down the middle. Plus it's known Duchene pretty much wants out. The Avs haven't had a top pairing LHD since 01. Hanifin is a long ways away from becoming one but the chance is there and I think it's worth the risk.

Making trades isn't about making the trade value meters equal like they do in video games. If that was the case of course Hanifin alone would be an underwhelming return for Duchene. Real NHL trades are based on team needs and from Colorado's standpoint Duchene for Hanifin makes sense. Whether the trade does for Carolina or not I don't know. I never discussed that. I just discussed you calling taking on Duchene being an exponentially greater risk than the Avs taking on with Hanifin which at this point is a laughable statement.

 

[Chan790]

I attempted and couldn't find an easy way to look this up.

I think all of this speaks more to Canes fans, their franchise, and their faith in a "star" player signing or re-signing there.

No one has brought up Duchene's potential stats on a contract year(s) too. I would hope for the next two years he is in balls out mode playing incredibly.

Also, good chance Skinner will play with Duchene and/or MacKinnon at the World Championships. Will be interesting to watch chemistry there.

I'm not sure. It's only one of two concerns for me honestly. Even before he crapped the bed post-TDL, Duchene didn't really look like even a low-end 1C last season and this...it feels like this is the "new normal", one that makes Duchene not merit a 1C return. He's a 2C and 2Cs don't warrant a premium return.

I don't go better than Fleury+ or Bean+ because I just don't think he merits a return with a higher-end defenseman in it; I'd have done Faulk at the TDL but that's off the table now.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm curious now. How often do star players that get traded within 2 years of UFA leave their teams? Maybe being Friday I can't think of good examples, but I get the feeling it's less than those that do sign.

I looked back for <30 year old forwards who actually made it to UFA, and the list is pretty short. Lucic and Okposo are the only guys who were anything more than 2nd liners looking for a paycheck.

 

[Brock Anton]

I think all of this speaks more to Canes fans, their franchise, and their faith in a "star" player signing or re-signing there.

Well, duh. When was the last time a star player signed, or even considered signing in Carolina?

The most prominent player you can point to in recent memory would be Jordan Staal (and while a valuable player, I doubt anyone would call him a star), and that was only because of his brother. I highly doubt he'd have been interested in a long-term deal if Eric wasn't there. He'd have been a Ranger in all likelihood, or he would have stayed in PIT.

We know we have no chance to compete in the FA market because of our refusal to hand out bonuses in contracts. It's exactly why we're so against trading Hanifin for Duchene. Frankly, it'd be dumb for Duchene and his agent to sign a long-term deal with no bonuses in Carolina when they know they'd be able to attract multiple offers on the open market for probably more $$ and with bonuses.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I'm not sure. It's only one of two concerns for me honestly. Even before he crapped the bed post-TDL, Duchene didn't really look like even a low-end 1C last season and this...it feels like this is the "new normal", one that makes Duchene not merit a 1C return. He's a 2C and 2Cs don't warrant a premium return.

I don't go better than Fleury+ or Bean+ because I just don't think he merits a return with a higher-end defenseman in it; I'd have done Faulk at the TDL but that's off the table now.

"Feels like this is the new normal"?? Are you joking?

Matt Duchene's career before this season: 64 points per 82 games played
Matt Duchene in 15/16: 64 points per 82 games played
Matt Duchene in calander year 2016: 64 points per 82 games played
Matt Duchene October 2016 to Jan 1 2017: 64 points per 82 games played
Matt Duchene January 1 2017 to seasons end: 32 points per 82 games played

Not just consistency, but legit symmetry everywhere over his entire career. Even including last season and the first half of this season. Then all of a sudden when the trade rumors started and the team went to crap his production cut exactly in half and you think this is the "new normal"? You think a then 25 year old hockey player turned into exactly one half of the hockey player he was a day earlier offensively?

Come on. A players career doesn't change literally overnight unless there's some type of injury or something. Duchene checked out on his team. Simple as that. He admitted being open to change, the team went to **** and his production shows. But to think this is the new norm is ridiculous.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Well, duh. When was the last time a star player signed, or even considered signing in Carolina?

The most prominent player you can point to in recent memory would be Jordan Staal (and while a valuable player, I doubt anyone would call him a star), and that was only because of his brother. I highly doubt he'd have been interested in a long-term deal if Eric wasn't there. He'd have been a Ranger in all likelihood, or he would have stayed in PIT.

We know we have no chance to compete in the FA market because of our refusal to hand out bonuses in contracts. It's exactly why we're so against trading Hanifin for Duchene. Frankly, it'd be dumb for Duchene and his agent to sign a long-term deal with no bonuses in Carolina when they know they'd be able to attract multiple offers on the open market for probably more $$ and with bonuses.

Staal was a RFA when he got traded to Carolina and signed his extension, wasn't he?

Wouldn't Semin be the answer to your question? That was only 5 years ago. I doubt the Canes would have been earnestly trying to sign big name UFAs since then, since they have been a rebuilding team on an internal budget. Or do you want to pretend that they have gone after guys in order to claim Duchene is definitely leaving?

 

[Brock Anton]

Come on. A players career doesn't change literally overnight unless there's some type of injury or something. Duchene checked out on his team. Simple as that. He admitted being open to change, the team went to **** and his production shows. But to think this is the new norm is ridiculous.

I realize that there were multiple factors behind the scenes in Colorado that led to this, but couldn't that be seen as a red flag for a team looking to acquire Duchene? If Carolina, or whoever, trades for Duchene and has a bad season who's to say he won't check out on them too?

I'm sure you can point to poor team seasons like 2011 and 2013 as years when he didn't check out and that's fair. But, especially in sports, once people speculate that you quit on your teammates, **** like that sticks with you, unfairly or not.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I realize that there were multiple factors behind the scenes in Colorado that led to this, but couldn't that be seen as a red flag for a team looking to acquire Duchene? If Carolina, or whoever, trades for Duchene and has a bad season who's to say he won't check out on them too?

I'm sure you can point to poor team seasons like 2011 and 2013 as years when he didn't check out and that's fair. But, especially in sports, once people speculate that you quit on your teammates, **** like that sticks with you, unfairly or not.

If half your teammates quit on you in September because your coach rage quit in August, and you continue to push and play hard until February, when you finally struggle to stay motivated, is that a major personality flaw?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I realize that there were multiple factors behind the scenes in Colorado that led to this, but couldn't that be seen as a red flag for a team looking to acquire Duchene? If Carolina, or whoever, trades for Duchene and has a bad season who's to say he won't check out on them too?

I'm sure you can point to poor team seasons like 2011 and 2013 as years when he didn't check out and that's fair. But, especially in sports, once people speculate that you quit on your teammates, **** like that sticks with you, unfairly or not.

I don't know how to prove it lol. But I can say that I've watched every game Matt Duchene has played since he's 18 and I never once in my life saw him give any less than 110% until January of this year. Even when he slumps and doesn't score he gives his all. He's always been known for his character and loyalty. When he was drafted he was considered one of the best interviews that teams had seen in years.

It sucks that he checked out but even for somebody as loyal as him I completely get it. He took a discount contract to sign long term and at the time he said his reasoning was so that it could free up cap space for the AVS to sign othe impact players. Since that happened his best friend Paul Stastny wasn't re-signed, his most productive line mate ROR was traded away and all that extra money was put into names like Carl Soderberg, Jarome Iginla, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau and Francois Beauchemin. On top of his loyalty and effort he was the subject of trade rumors almost all of 15/16. He battled those rumors off, played his ass off and it was all out to rest. Fast forward a few months later, Duchene is off to his regular consistent start, the Avs started struggling, he became subject of rumors AGAIN and then he completely stopped giving an effort. He looked mentally exhausted in his interviews. He was sick of it.

This isn't me trying to sell you on trading for Matt Duchene. We're both fans. We don't have that type of ability. I just want to educate people on the process of Matt Duchene becoming the player he was in 2017. I get pissed off when is we people calling him out and saying this is the norm. If you put the heart and dedication that Matt Duchene put into the Avalanche for the last near decade (and he only just turned 26) and had to deal with the crap he's gone through you'd check out too. And I get it, he's a hockey player making millions of dollars. He should be fortunate to just make it. But that's not Matt Duchene. He's one of the biggest competitors in the game and just being a hockey player isn't what he wants. He wants to win on a team that wants to win.

 

[Brock Anton]

Staal was a RFA when he got traded to Carolina and signed his extension, wasn't he?

Wouldn't Semin be the answer to your question? That was only 5 years ago. I doubt the Canes would have been earnestly trying to sign big name UFAs since then, since they have been a rebuilding team on an internal budget. Or do you want to pretend that they have gone after guys in order to claim Duchene is definitely leaving?

I'm pretty sure Staal was heading towards UFA. 2012-13 (the last year before his extension kicked in) was his 7th season in the NHL.

I guess you could count Semin, but I'm not sure many would point to him being a star player that summer. He was probably the most polarizing player in the league at the time and was still on the market in late July, so I doubt he was a priority FA for many. To answer your last question, before signing Semin in 2012, we quite publicly made offers to both Parise and Suter (we also tried trading for Nash, but his NTC got in the way), to my knowledge that is the last time we tried to do anything substantial in FA. So yes, we have tried.

 

[Brock Anton]

I don't know how to prove it lol. But I can say that I've watched every game Matt Duchene has played since he's 18 and I never once in my life saw him give any less than 110% until January of this year. Even when he slumps and doesn't score he gives his all. He's always been known for his character and loyalty. When he was drafted he was considered one of the best interviews that teams had seen in years.

It sucks that he checked out but even for somebody as loyal as him I completely get it. He took a discount contract to sign long term and at the time he said his reasoning was so that it could free up cap space for the AVS to sign othe impact players. Since that happened his best friend Paul Stastny wasn't re-signed, his most productive line mate ROR was traded away and all that extra money was put into names like Carl Soderberg, Jarome Iginla, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau and Francois Beauchemin. On top of his loyalty and effort he was the subject of trade rumors almost all of 15/16. He battled those rumors off, played his ass off and it was all out to rest. Fast forward a few months later, Duchene is off to his regular consistent start, the Avs started struggling, he became subject of rumors AGAIN and then he completely stopped giving an effort. He looked mentally exhausted in his interviews. He was sick of it.

This isn't me trying to sell you on trading for Matt Duchene. We're both fans. We don't have that type of ability. I just want to educate people on the process of Matt Duchene becoming the player he was in 2017. I get pissed off when is we people calling him out and saying this is the norm. If you put the heart and dedication that Matt Duchene put into the Avalanche for the last near decade (and he only just turned 26) and had to deal with the crap he's gone through you'd check out too. And I get it, he's a hockey player making millions of dollars. He should be fortunate to just make it. But that's not Matt Duchene. He's one of the biggest competitors in the game and just being a hockey player isn't what he wants. He wants to win on a team that wants to win.

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

There aren’t too many examples of major trades involving marquee players 2 years away from UFA. Two that come to mind are Olli Jokinen to Phoenix in 2008 and Bobby Ryan to Ottawa in 2013. Jokinen did not re-sign in Phoenix. He ended up getting dealt to Calgary in 2009 and then to the Rangers in 2010. Jokinen did sign with the Flames as a UFA.

Ryan did re-sign with Ottawa. So, that’s an example that works against our collective argument. There’s a big caveat with the Ryan trade, however. Ryan wasn’t dealt in a 1-for-1, quality for quality trade; Ottawa only gave up “quantity†for the 2 guaranteed years of Ryan.

Carolina would take on the risk of Duchene if the trade is "quantity" for quality.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm pretty sure Staal was heading towards UFA. 2012-13 (the last year before his extension kicked in) was his 7th season in the NHL.

I guess you could count Semin, but for one, 5 years is a long time in sports and two I'm not sure many would point to him being a star player that summer. He was probably the most polarizing player in the league at the time and was still on the market in late July, so I doubt he was a priority FA for many. To answer your last question, before signing Semin in 2012, we quite publicly made offers to both Parise and Suter (we also tried trading for Nash, but his NTC got in the way), to my knowledge that is the last time we tried to do anything substantial in FA. So yes, we have tried.

Yeah, I looked at the wrong years on Capfriendly for Staal. But, still, he signed an extension to stay in Carolina after they acquired him, even if it was because of his brother. The reason someone signs isn't as important as the fact that they sign, right?

I agree that Semin wasn't exactly a star, but he was one of the higher profile UFAs that season, and chose Carolina. He also signed a long term extension in Carolina (which was subsequently bought out, but that's a different issue).

Everyone made offers to Parise and Suter, and they both chose to sign with Minnesota. Considering they are from Minnesota and Wisconsin, I'm guessing they didn't snub the Canes so much as they chose to play closer to home. Not sure that proves you guys can't ever get high profile UFAs.

And Nash had a whole list of teams he didn't want to play for, including every Canadian team. Again, not sure I'd use that as proof that no high end players will ever want to play in Carolina.

 

[Brock Anton]

Yeah, I looked at the wrong years on Capfriendly for Staal. But, still, he signed an extension to stay in Carolina after they acquired him, even if it was because of his brother. The reason someone signs isn't as important as the fact that they sign, right?

I agree that Semin wasn't exactly a star, but he was one of the higher profile UFAs that season, and chose Carolina. He also signed a long term extension in Carolina (which was subsequently bought out, but that's a different issue).

Everyone made offers to Parise and Suter, and they both chose to sign with Minnesota. Considering they are from Minnesota and Wisconsin, I'm guessing they didn't snub the Canes so much as they chose to play closer to home. Not sure that proves you guys can't ever get high profile UFAs.

And Nash had a whole list of teams he didn't want to play for, including every Canadian team. Again, not sure I'd use that as proof that no high end players will ever want to play in Carolina.

We rarely/never go after big name players. So examples of us being rebuffed for top level guys are rare (or at least rarely reported). Before the summer of 2012, the last time we noticeably went gunning for big name players was in the late 1990's/early 2000's when we tried to get Fedorov with an offer sheet, brought back Francis and swung trades for Sandis Ozolinsh and Brind'Amour. Other than that, most of our moves have been for second level guys like Stillman and Whitney and bit players like Kostopoulos, McClement, Alberts etc. Semin, Stillman and Whitney would probably be our most notable UFA signings since the 04-05 lockout, and Staal is the most notable trade.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

We rarely/never go after big name players. So examples of us being rebuffed for top level guys are rare (or at least rarely reported). Before the summer of 2012, the last time we noticeably went gunning for big name players was in the late 1990's/early 2000's when we tried to get Fedorov with an offer sheet, brought back Francis and swung trades for Sandis Ozolinsh and Brind'Amour. Other than that, most of our moves have been for second level guys like Stillman and Whitney and bit players like Kostopoulos, McClement, Alberts etc. Semin, Stillman and Whitney would probably be our most notable UFA signings since the 04-05 lockout, and Staal is the most notable trade.

So, you don't regularly try to sign big name UFAs, but the subsequent lack of big name UFA signings due to not trying still somehow indicates that Duchene will refuse to re-sign in Carolina and go UFA? There is a quote about missing 100% of the shots you don't take that seems fitting here.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So, you don't regularly try to sign big name UFAs, but the subsequent lack of big name UFA signings due to not trying still somehow indicates that Duchene will refuse to re-sign in Carolina and go UFA? There is a quote about missing 100% of the shots you don't take that seems fitting here.

Recent history, Canes traded for Sekera with 2 years left on his deal and tried very hard to sign him, but he wouldn't sign. Using Staal (signed because of his brother) and Semin (signed because nobody else wanted him) are pretty terrible examples.

Let's not act like a re-signing of Duchene is a foregone conclusion, because it isn't.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

So, you don't regularly try to sign big name UFAs, but the subsequent lack of big name UFA signings due to not trying still somehow indicates that Duchene will refuse to re-sign in Carolina and go UFA? There is a quote about missing 100% of the shots you don't take that seems fitting here.

Even if they do re sign Duchene, it will be an expensive long term contract that guarentees one of Skinner, Staal or Faulk is gone.

The only good solution os if Duchene signs a team friendly deal which he won't.

 

[McMetal]

Recent history, Canes traded for Sekera with 2 years left on his deal and tried very hard to sign him, but he wouldn't sign. Using Staal (signed because of his brother) and Semin (signed because nobody else wanted him) are pretty terrible examples.

Let's not act like a re-signing of Duchene is a foregone conclusion, because it isn't.

No. But it's not out of the question, either.

Canes fans all generally agree that you need to make the playoffs next year, or else. Duchene can help you achieve that particular short term goal. If you had made the trade at the deadline, it might have even happened this year. You were right in the thick of it at the time.

So the Hanifin for Duchene deal makes sense for you in the short term, dealing from a position of strength to address a position of need. Good hockey trade. If you're worried about the long term, you have two years to convince Duchene that he belongs there, and will likely have the cap space to do so and a playoff team to offer, as well as an increased role for him (MacKinnon has largely eclipsed that spotlight here). Is it a guarantee? No, but it's a risk a club desperate to make the postseason might be willing to take.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Recent history, Canes traded for Sekera with 2 years left on his deal and tried very hard to sign him, but he wouldn't sign. Using Staal (signed because of his brother) and Semin (signed because nobody else wanted him) are pretty terrible examples.

Let's not act like a re-signing of Duchene is a foregone conclusion, because it isn't.

Him walking as a UFA isn't a foregone conclusion either. There is risk, but not "exponentially greater" risk than the Avs would be taking with Hanifin. Worst case, you'd do the same thing you did with Sekera, and trade Duchene at the 2019 TDL for a 1st + prospect (or more). Who wouldn't want that kind of return for a guy who might end up being a bottom pairing D in a worst case scenario?

 

[spockBokk]

No. But it's not out of the question, either.

Canes fans all generally agree that you need to make the playoffs next year, or else. Duchene can help you achieve that particular short term goal. If you had made the trade at the deadline, it might have even happened this year. You were right in the thick of it at the time.

So the Hanifin for Duchene deal makes sense for you in the short term, dealing from a position of strength to address a position of need. Good hockey trade. If you're worried about the long term, you have two years to convince Duchene that he belongs there, and will likely have the cap space to do so and a playoff team to offer, as well as an increased role for him (MacKinnon has largely eclipsed that spotlight here). Is it a guarantee? No, but it's a risk a club desperate to make the postseason might be willing to take.

Or else...heh...only took 5 pages for someone to insinuate that not trading Hanifin for Duchene will lead the franchise to QC

 

[Roboturner913]

Canes fans all generally agree that you need to make the playoffs next year, or else. Duchene can help you achieve that particular short term goal.

Or he could suck again and score 40 points, and meanwhile Fleury/Carrick or whoever is in no way ready to play a top-4 role in the NHL to replace Hanifin. So now we've barely upgraded our forward unit and destablilized our defense.

Surely Avs fans must understand that Duchene is a major risk at the price you are asking to acquire him. We have to A) hope he bounces back; B) hope he re-signs in two years; C) hope that we have suitable personnel to replace Hanifin, which is no sure thing by far; D) hope that Hanifin doesn't meet his potential and make us look like complete and total idiots a couple years down the road, aka, this is still the same team that traded away a 20-year-old Chris Pronger, and lemme tell ya, people still have not forgotten that.

With the Avs, hell, you are trading away a guy you don't really want and who doesn't want to be there anyway, and getting at worst a really good 2nd pair d-man with nothing but upside, and you're shedding salary to help your rebuild. Your risk is minimal by comparison.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Him walking as a UFA isn't a foregone conclusion either.

Correct, and I've never said otherwise. Thing is, Avs fans want to completely discount the possibility that it could happen. "He's a loyal guy"; "He loves hunting and fishing"; "He loves country music", etc..etc..

There is risk, but not "exponentially greater" risk than the Avs would be taking with Hanifin. Worst case, you'd do the same thing you did with Sekera, and trade Duchene at the 2019 TDL for a 1st + prospect (or more). Who wouldn't want that kind of return for a guy who might end up being a bottom pairing D in a worst case scenario?

If we end up trading Hanifin for deadline picks / prospects at the deadline, it's a complete fail IMO. So while Avs fans like to throw that out, IMO, that's a terrible return.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Correct, and I've never said otherwise. Thing is, Avs fans want to completely discount the possibility that it could happen. "He's a loyal guy"; "He loves hunting and fishing"; "He loves country music", etc..etc..



If we end up trading Hanifin for deadline picks / prospects at the deadline, it's a complete fail IMO. So while Avs fans like to throw that out, IMO, that's a terrible return.

Those reasons are generally given when Canes fans pretend he won't sign in Carolina. No one has said he's 100% going to sign that I've seen, just that it isn't as impossible as some pessimistic Canes fans want to claim.

I agree that trading Hanifin for picks/prospects would be a failure. So would trading Duchene for a bottom pairing D. But being 100% risk averse doesn't lead to many opportunities to potentially make your team better. Eventually, you either make a move or you end up watching other teams seize your missed opportunities and prosper.

 

[Roboturner913]

But being 100% risk averse

Here we go again. Please stop with the strawman stuff. Just because somebody does not want to trade Hanifin for Duchene, does not make them "100% risk averse."

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Those reasons are generally given when Canes fans pretend he won't sign in Carolina. No one has said he's 100% going to sign that I've seen, just that it isn't as impossible as some pessimistic Canes fans want to claim.

I agree that trading Hanifin for picks/prospects would be a failure. So would trading Duchene for a bottom pairing D. But being 100% risk averse doesn't lead to many opportunities to potentially make your team better. Eventually, you either make a move or you end up watching other teams seize your missed opportunities and prosper.

Please. Stop with the "Pretend" and "pessemistic canes fans" and "make this move or others will seize the opportunity". It's (his contract) is a real concern, even Friedman said the contract was a concern so stop acting like it is a non-issue. Like I said earlier, if Francis thinks he can re-sign him, then he may make a deal like this, but if not, he won't.