Proposal: MacKinnon for Hanifin +

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Please. Stop with the "Pretend" and "pessemistic canes fans" and "make this move or others will seize the opportunity". It's (his contract) is a real concern, even Friedman said the contract was a concern so stop acting like it is a non-issue. Like I said earlier, if Francis thinks he can re-sign him, then he may make a deal like this, but if not, he won't.

There are some Canes fans who act like there is a 0% chance Duchene would ever sign in Carolina, and want to value him accordingly. Is that not pessimistic? Is that not pretending to know the future?

The claims about eventually making a move is something every fan base should understand. You can't build a team solely through the draft, and the UFA market hasn't been very good over the last 5-10 years. So, you either make hockey trades to fill the holes in your roster, or you likely won't get far in the playoffs.

With that said, I'm not suggesting Duchene would make the Canes a contender. I'm just saying that you guys will eventually need to swap one of your D for scoring help. If you're willing to be patient, maybe someone better than Duchene will be available, or PLD will develop into a 1C, or you'll find someone through the draft. Maybe that's the prudent choice.

On that note, maybe keeping Duchene for another year and hoping he returns to form is the prudent choice for the Avs. He can't walk for nothing yet, so why not see if he can't recover some value.

 

[Roboturner913]

You can't build a team solely through the draft

Uhhhh.....haven't the Red Wings pretty much been one of the most successful teams over the last two decades by doing exactly that? Blues, Penguins, Sharks, Ducks, Lightning, Leafs, Blackhawks, blah blah are all successful teams that have built success with almost entirely homegrown players.

If Saarela comes up next year and is a 20-25 goal scorer the way Aho was, that lineup hole is fixed. There's no rule whatsoever that says they HAVE to look for offensive help from outside the organization. That kind of talk is just the product of impatience.

 

[DJN21]

Uhhhh.....haven't the Red Wings pretty much been one of the most successful teams over the last two decades by doing exactly that? Blues, Penguins, Sharks, Ducks, Lightning, Leafs, Blackhawks, blah blah are all successful teams that have built success with almost entirely homegrown players.

Blues successful? I'll bite...statsny...

Pens...recchi etc

Sharks...burns, thornon

Lightning...if we are talking their cup winning team then basically their whole roster.

Leafs...lol most successful? Wtf were you thinking?

Hawks...hosea

Maybe your definition of success is different? You have a few teams who have yet to accomplish anything outside of the blues being decent in the regular season and the
Leafs barely sneaking in, alongside cup winning teams who had significant pieces added via trade..,

 

[Roboturner913]

Blues successful? I'll bite...statsny...

Pens...recchi etc

Sharks...burns, thornon

Lightning...if we are talking their cup winning team then basically their whole roster.

Leafs...lol most successful? Wtf were you thinking?

Hawks...hosea

Maybe your definition of success is different? You have a few teams who have yet to accomplish anything outside of the blues being decent in the regular season and the
Leafs barely sneaking in, alongside cup winning teams who had significant pieces added via trade..,

Sorry, can't tell if you are purposely being dense for effect or really don't understand, the point is all those teams are built through the draft. They may have added a player or two through trades or free agency but by and large aren't reliant on that to be competitive. There's no one way to build a team. If the Canes are willing to be patient and keep drafting well, with guys like Saarela, Gauthier, Wallmark, Kuokkanen, Roy, Fleury, Bean, Carrick, McKeown ready to step in the next couple years, add that to Skinner/Rask/Aho/Lindholm/Faulk/Slavin/Hanifin/Pesce, it won't be long before they can have an almost totally homegrown core that should be one of the better young teams in the league. They don't NEED to rush it.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Even if they do re sign Duchene, it will be an expensive long term contract that guarentees one of Skinner, Staal or Faulk is gone.

The only good solution os if Duchene signs a team friendly deal which he won't.

Assuming they do re-sign him for big money/long term, that means over the course of the next two years in a hurricanes uniform, he would have earned it right? Seems worth the risk under that assumption.

But then, assuming Duchene does well causes him to sign a big deal, which then creates a domino effect causing you to lose other big names is screaming of being scared to make a move to make the team better.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

It was interesting to look back on the trades involving “star†players with 1-2 years of term left on their deals since the beginning of the decade. There’s a common theme to the trades involving Burns, O’Reilly, Gaborik, Spezza, Lucic, Staal, Yandle, Ryan and Vanek: the trade is a 2-4-for-1 headlined by a good to very good, but not high-end, piece.

I think the Ryan trade works as a good expectation setter for Duchene. Ryan had been a top-line caliber producer that was on a bit of downward trajectory prior to the trade and had 2 years of term left on his contract. There is a positional difference and that works in Colorado’s favor, but only to a certain extent, considering that Ryan was coming off a more normal season prior to the trade.

Ryan returned a very good, but not elite, prospect in Silfverberg, a recent mid-late 1st in Noesen and an unprotected 1st. That unprotected 1st turned out to be the 10th overall pick, but I imagine Ottawa expected to do much better in 13-14.

Now, Sakic may not do that kind of trade and even if he were, there are probably teams better equipped to offer a Silfverberg-like centerpiece than Carolina. Montreal with Sergachev is a fit in that sense.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Uhhhh.....haven't the Red Wings pretty much been one of the most successful teams over the last two decades by doing exactly that? Blues, Penguins, Sharks, Ducks, Lightning, Leafs, Blackhawks, blah blah are all successful teams that have built success with almost entirely homegrown players.

If Saarela comes up next year and is a 20-25 goal scorer the way Aho was, that lineup hole is fixed. There's no rule whatsoever that says they HAVE to look for offensive help from outside the organization. That kind of talk is just the product of impatience.

Sorry, can't tell if you are purposely being dense for effect or really don't understand, the point is all those teams are built through the draft. They may have added a player or two through trades or free agency but by and large aren't reliant on that to be competitive. There's no one way to build a team. If the Canes are willing to be patient and keep drafting well, with guys like Saarela, Gauthier, Wallmark, Kuokkanen, Roy, Fleury, Bean, Carrick, McKeown ready to step in the next couple years, add that to Skinner/Rask/Aho/Lindholm/Faulk/Slavin/Hanifin/Pesce, it won't be long before they can have an almost totally homegrown core that should be one of the better young teams in the league. They don't NEED to rush it.

This is an absolutely ridiculous and asinine analogy. If you can't stick to hockey conversation without skirting around insults and insinuations pointed at Canes fans then you need to stop discussing this. Canes fans are talking about this from a pure business standpoint, but all you can provide is pedantic psychobabble and generalization bullcrap. And hell, I don't even agree with half of them.

What is that saying about calling the kettle black? Some Canes fans have been rational and provide detail like Big Daddy Cane above. Others go right belittling and insulting other teams, especially one off a historically bad season which is very unlikely to be repeated.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Sorry, can't tell if you are purposely being dense for effect or really don't understand, the point is all those teams are built through the draft. They may have added a player or two through trades or free agency but by and large aren't reliant on that to be competitive. There's no one way to build a team. If the Canes are willing to be patient and keep drafting well, with guys like Saarela, Gauthier, Wallmark, Kuokkanen, Roy, Fleury, Bean, Carrick, McKeown ready to step in the next couple years, add that to Skinner/Rask/Aho/Lindholm/Faulk/Slavin/Hanifin/Pesce, it won't be long before they can have an almost totally homegrown core that should be one of the better young teams in the league. They don't NEED to rush it.

None of those teams were built solely through the draft. Every single one has added players through trades to round out what they were able to build through the draft. That was my point, which you apparently didn't fully get.

But, if you want to pin your hopes on your drafted prospects all reaching their full potential, I wish you luck. I don't think it will work out, but I'm interested to see what happens.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

But then, assuming Duchene does well causes him to sign a big deal, which then creates a domino effect causing you to lose other big names is screaming of being scared to make a move to make the team better.

Trading Duchene for Hanifin and one of Staal, Skinner or Faulk does not make the team better.

 

[Goulet17]

It was interesting to look back on the trades involving “star†players with 1-2 years of term left on their deals since the beginning of the decade. There’s a common theme to the trades involving Burns, O’Reilly, Gaborik, Spezza, Lucic, Staal, Yandle, Ryan and Vanek: the trade is a 2-4-for-1 headlined by a good to very good, but not high-end, piece.

I think the Ryan trade works as a good expectation setter for Duchene. Ryan had been a top-line caliber producer that was on a bit of downward trajectory prior to the trade and had 2 years of term left on his contract. There is a positional difference and that works in Colorado’s favor, but only to a certain extent, considering that Ryan was coming off a more normal season prior to the trade.

Ryan returned a very good, but not elite, prospect in Silfverberg, a recent mid-late 1st in Noesen and an unprotected 1st. That unprotected 1st turned out to be the 10th overall pick, but I imagine Ottawa expected to do much better in 13-14.

Now, Sakic may not do that kind of trade and even if he were, there are probably teams better equipped to offer a Silfverberg-like centerpiece than Carolina. Montreal with Sergachev is a fit in that sense.

The Ottawa-Anaheim trade and the CO-Buffalo trade involving seemed to involve some similarities in terms of the future pieces.

What would be an Ottawa-Anaheim equivalent trade from Carolina for Duchene? Carolina's 2017 first round pick (not top-3), Haydn Fleury, and one of Roland Mckeown/Nicolas Roy? I not saying that Carolina would do that trade, but it seems to be in line. I sincerely doubt that either organization has any interest in trading Hanifin or MacKinnon.

Before anyone is upset with the "equivalent comparable" value that I presented, you should take a detailed look at the value of the pieces that Ottawa received at the time of that 2013 trade.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

There's also Hall for Larsson and Johansen for Jones as comparables, not just the Ryan or ROR trades. Ducks were going to lose Ryan and moved him for the best value they could. Avs were going to lose ROR and went after a better prospect than Fleury in Zadorov. Getting Compher, Meloche and a 2nd in the process.

If the Avs end up against a wall (they're not) then Duchy for Bean, Gauthier, 1st is about the minimum equivalent to the ROR deal. Or Hanifin to be equivalent to a Johansen deal.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Trading Duchene for Hanifin and one of Staal, Skinner or Faulk does not make the team better.

I agree with that. I haven't seen anyone offer Duchene for Hanifin AND Staal/Skinner/Faulk.

 

[Cassano]

There are some Canes fans who act like there is a 0% chance Duchene would ever sign in Carolina, and want to value him accordingly. Is that not pessimistic? Is that not pretending to know the future?

What star players have the Canes signed?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

What star players have the Canes signed?

What star players have they traded for and lost for nothing? And, no, Sekera isn't a star player.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I agree with that. I haven't seen anyone offer Duchene for Hanifin AND Staal/Skinner/Faulk.

If the Hurricanes have to let Skinner walk because they sign Duchene to a long term deal, they have given up Skinner and Hanifin for Duchene. Or Staal, Faulk, etc. And that's the "good" ending here.

It's simply not worth it.

If Duchene does get traded, I think Avalanche fans will be disappointed with the return.

What star players have they traded for and lost for nothing? And, no, Sekera isn't a star player.

lol

 

[Brock Anton]

There's also Hall for Larsson and Johansen for Jones as comparables, not just the Ryan or ROR trades. Ducks were going to lose Ryan and moved him for the best value they could. Avs were going to lose ROR and went after a better prospect than Fleury in Zadorov. Getting Compher, Meloche and a 2nd in the process.

If the Avs end up against a wall (they're not) then Duchy for Bean, Gauthier, 1st is about the minimum equivalent to the ROR deal. Or Hanifin to be equivalent to a Johansen deal.

Where's the comparison to Hall/Larsson and Johansen/Jones? You may think there's one because you want a top young defenseman in return for Duchene, but there's no comparison. All of those guys either had long term contracts already (Hall/Larsson) or were headed towards RFA (Jones/Johansen). Duchene falls under neither.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Are we still on this? We didn't trade for Duchene because his contract was a concern. You can argue that it shouldn't have been, but what's done is done. Unless something changes in that regard, the Canes won't give up anything major for Matt Duchene.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Where's the comparison to Hall/Larsson and Johansen/Jones? You may think there's one because you want a top young defenseman in return for Duchene, but there's no comparison. All of those guys either had long term contracts already (Hall/Larsson) or were headed towards RFA (Jones/Johansen). Duchene falls under neither.

When Johansen was traded, he was 2.5 years away from potential UFA status. All he had to do was play out the 1.5 years remaining on his contract, sign his QO when it's done, and he could be a UFA and Nashville doesn't have a lot of leverage to stop him.

Right now, Duchene is 2 years from UFA. Not sure why 6 months of team control makes that much difference.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Johansen still has to negotiate with Nashville as an RFA.

He was also 4 years younger than Duchene at the time of trade.

Nashville was also viewed (not without reason) as a star center away from being a contender.

Just some minor differences.

 

[Brock Anton]

When Johansen was traded, he was 2.5 years away from potential UFA status. All he had to do was play out the 1.5 years remaining on his contract, sign his QO when it's done, and he could be a UFA and Nashville doesn't have a lot of leverage to stop him.

Right now, Duchene is 2 years from UFA. Not sure why 6 months of team control makes that much difference.

Okay, but he's still an RFA. Not to mention, almost always, these situations end with a long term deal. Johansen will be no different, especially when you add in that Nashville is a perennial playoff contender.

But since you like to play this game though, when was the last time a high quality RFA was traded for, played out his contract, then only signed a QO and bailed for UFA a year later?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Johanson still has to negotiate with Nashville as an RFA.

He was also 4 years younger than Duchene at the time of trade.

Nashville was also viewed (not without reason) as a star center away from being a contender.

Just some minor differences.

No, he actually doesn't have to negotiate with them at all. All he has to do is wait for them to give him a QO (which they obviously will) and he signs that. No negotiations are needed.

Age doesn't really matter that much if he leaves as a UFA in 2.5 years, right?

Yes, Nashville was farther along in their build than Carolina is. But, they both drafted a lot of good defensemen and it's not crazy to think that Carolina will need to follow a similar path and swap a D for a forward if they want to progress beyond being a team with a strong D core.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Okay, but he's still an RFA. Not to mention, almost always, these situations end with a long term deal. Johansen will be no different, especially when you add in that Nashville is a perennial playoff contender.

But since you like to play this game though, when was the last time a high quality RFA was traded for, played out his contract, then only signed a QO and bailed for UFA a year later?

It has happened just as frequently as a star player is acquired in a trade and has walked as a UFA for nothing.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Where's the comparison to Hall/Larsson and Johansen/Jones? You may think there's one because you want a top young defenseman in return for Duchene, but there's no comparison. All of those guys either had long term contracts already (Hall/Larsson) or were headed towards RFA (Jones/Johansen). Duchene falls under neither.

If we're arguing details, both Larsson and Jones were better at the time of trade than Hanifin is now too. Hall's contact is literally one year longer than Duchene's so when Duchy had three seasons remaining during the year the contract complaints were even less relevant.

The point is that star for star has merit, Duchy isn't just a good player worth an assembly of good prospects if past trades are being taken into account. If he were in Carolina the opinion would be the same.

I don't really care about not wanting him, I've already pointed out I understand. I just think it is misguided to use one set of past trades as proof and not others. Similarly disagree with the people who think Duchy is washed up or not a first line center. Without those statements continuing I think this thread would be dead.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The Ottawa-Anaheim trade and the CO-Buffalo trade involving seemed to involve some similarities in terms of the future pieces.

What would be an Ottawa-Anaheim equivalent trade from Carolina for Duchene? Carolina's 2017 first round pick (not top-3), Haydn Fleury, and one of Roland Mckeown/Nicolas Roy? I not saying that Carolina would do that trade, but it seems to be in line. I sincerely doubt that either organization has any interest in trading Hanifin or MacKinnon.

Before anyone is upset with the "equivalent comparable" value that I presented, you should take a detailed look at the value of the pieces that Ottawa received at the time of that 2013 trade.

That's about what I would expect a Duchene to Carolina trade to look like if it were to go down. Silfverberg was a better prospect than Bean is now, but what most likely will be the 11th overall pick is more valuable than Ottawa's unprotected 2014 1st was at the time of the trade. Roy is comparable to Noesen. Duchene probably could pull another less valuable piece to compensate for the positional difference.

As I say that, I do think the Avs may be able to get a defensive prospect a level above Bean or Fleury. It won't be a Chabot or McAvoy, but maybe a Sergachev. I'm bearish on the possibility of Duchene to Carolina because of that.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

If we're arguing details, both Larsson and Jones were better at the time of trade than Hanifin is now too. Hall's contact is literally one year longer than Duchene's so when Duchy had three seasons remaining during the year the contract complaints were even less relevant.

The point is that star for star has merit, Duchy isn't just a good player worth an assembly of good prospects if past trades are being taken into account. If he were in Carolina the opinion would be the same.

I don't really care about not wanting him, I've already pointed out I understand. I just think it is misguided to use one set of past trades as proof and not others. Similarly disagree with the people who think Duchy is washed up or not a first line center. Without those statements continuing I think this thread would be dead.

Carolina has a comparable asset in Jeff Skinner. Skinner basically has the same remaining contract (he comes in at a slightly cheaper cap hit.)

If the Canes were to make him available for some reason, I wouldn't expect quality. Recent history suggests that the expectation should be quantity.