Speculation: Let's Talk Contracts - RFA Qualifying Offers Due June 25th, 2019

[tsujimoto74]

Term. I think we can upgrade on McCabe on the left side (Dahlin/Pilut are already better) within the next 3 years and he hasn’t looked good playing on the right.

McCabe is just too unreliable for large portions of the season. He’s a defense first defenseman that isn’t that great at defending.

I do wonder with him, if you went back and looked at his bad v good games, whether the inconsistency is just him or if it's a product of him sometimes being played above his capabilities in the line-up. I'm not particularly attached to having him on the roster, but I suspect he might generally look good playing as a #5 and have a rough go of it when asked to do more.

 

[OkimLom]

I’d expect Girgensons to be someone who may have a re-birth with Krueger. He thrives under the motivation type of players.

This could be an interesting offseason. I could see Botterill not bringing most of those up for QO back. I can see Ullmark coming back, Girgensons as well.

This could be the start of Botterill finally having contracts come off the books through UFA and RFA and reshaping the roster. Seeing as he did the absolute minimum these previous 2 years, this could be very well the year he was waiting for to make the changes.

I could see none of these players coming back quite honestly. I could also see him bring back the majority of them.

This is the first offseason in a while that I can’t guess what’s the purpose. Do they use Krueger’s first year much like they used Housley’s first to review what they have with Krueger?

 

[Chainshot]

I’d expect Girgensons to be someone who may have a re-birth with Krueger. He thrives under the motivation type of players.

This could be an interesting offseason. I could see Botterill not bringing most of those up for QO back. I can see Ullmark coming back, Girgensons as well.

This could be the start of Botterill finally having contracts come off the books through UFA and RFA and reshaping the roster. Seeing as he did the absolute minimum these previous 2 years, this could be very well the year he was waiting for to make the changes.

I could see none of these players coming back quite honestly. I could also see him bring back the majority of them.

This is the first offseason in a while that I can’t guess what’s the purpose. Do they use Krueger’s first year much like they used Housley’s first to review what they have with Krueger?

If they flat out do nothing, that's foolish. There is a clear need to improve talent. That said, the guys at the NHL level are bodies who can either be retained for roles in the coming season or used in trade for similar players from other teams. If they let cheap NHL players go by not tendering them, that would be most troubling.

 

[old kummelweck]

I’d expect Girgensons to be someone who may have a re-birth with Krueger. He thrives under the motivation type of players.

The sabres don't have the type of ice time a guy like Girgensons needs to be marginally productive.

 

[OkimLom]

If they flat out do nothing, that's foolish. There is a clear need to improve talent. That said, the guys at the NHL level are bodies who can either be retained for roles in the coming season or used in trade for similar players from other teams. If they let cheap NHL players go by not tendering them, that would be most troubling.

I agree with all of this, but if there’s something I have learned from Botterill is that he does things that I don’t necessarily agree with most of the time, hahaha.

Most of the guys that are eligible QO’s are guys from past regimes that one can convince themselves they can improve upon and Botts has made it pretty clear he’s ready to move on from guys if he can.

 

[OkimLom]

The sabres don't have the type of ice time a guy like Girgensons needs to be marginally productive.

Yeah they do. Whether they can, is another issue.

 

[Chainshot]

I agree with all of this, but if there’s something I have learned from Botterill is that he does things that I don’t necessarily agree with most of the time, hahaha.

Most of the guys that are eligible QO’s are guys from past regimes that one can convince themselves they can improve upon and Botts has made it pretty clear he’s ready to move on from guys if he can.

Yeah, I agree on your first point. And my issue is that for two years now Botterill has not added to his bottom 6 or any defensemen who one could think are even adequate players. If he's making decisions based on "his guys"... heaven help us.

 

[OkimLom]

Yeah, I agree on your first point. And my issue is that for two years now Botterill has not added to his bottom 6 or any defensemen who one could think are even adequate players. If he's making decisions based on "his guys"... heaven help us.

Preaching to the choir.

 

[brian_griffin]

So it's that time of year aga--no, not the draft lottery. So it's that time of ye--no, not wondering who the coach will be, we just did that. So it's that ti... *sigh* no, there is no news on Ristolainen or Skinner! Shheeeeessh...

Okay, so it's that time of year again: RFA qualifying season! *crickets* Ahem... The Sabres have five roster players, all arbitration eligible, to qualify:

Johan Larsson: 26, 1-year QO would be $1.55 million, he'd be eligible to be UFA at the end of it if signed (27 years old)
Zemgus Girgensons: 25, QO would be $1.6 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer (7 seasons)
Evan Rodrigues: 25, QO would be $715,000 and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed
Jake McCabe: 25, QO would be $1.775 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer like Gus (7 seasons)
Linus Ullmark: 25, QO would be $840K and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed.

So they don't have anyone due an outsized payday like Lehner who they didn't qualify for good reason. None of these guys should be overpaid at their QO, and some should be extended on value deals. There is no reason not to QO any of them. It would be stupid if they don't.

Moving down to players who ended the season in the minors, RFA:

Eric Cornel: 23, Finished his ELC, played in all the Amerks games up to the playoffs, but what's the upside? Do they think there is a depth piece there or do they move on or do they give him one more year?
Jack Dougherty: 23, RHD always seem like a find, probably gets a QO
Remi Elie: 24, tweener waiver-bait the last few years... he'd be one I would be on the fence about but again, lack of signed depth is a concern that might tip it for extending.
Sean Malone: 24, Had another injury-plagued year, kind of on the fence about giving him a deal, but a lack of signed center depth might be the push in his favor
Brycen Martin: Never played a game in their development system last year, seems like an easy no for a QO
CJ Smith: 24, Easy yes.

So I have them not extending QO's to only one player. None of the guys on the team are in the position Lehner was, where the QO was a risk to retain a player not worth the contract. There is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA. I will type that again, in case someone can't see it... but there is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA.

At the moment, they have 30 contracts, including Pekar's that can slide when they send him back to the OHL. If they QO everyone but Martin, that puts them at 41. Signing Skinner and replacing/signing Pominville puts them at 43. They need to sign a #3 veteran tweener goalie so that's 44.

Of the Group VI guys (O'Regan, Leier, Wilcox, and Wedgewood), one goalie obviously will be in the fold, possibly two (45 contracts). O'Regan has had little opportunity and the rumors about the DEL, he might not want to be back without an NHL deal. Leier too they like but again, is that enough for the NHL level deal? Signing/replacing both puts them at 47. The UFA's in the minors are Moulson (see ya!), Tennyson (see ya?), and Porter (AHL deal?) who I could see one deal being needed (Tennyson's "vet" replacement as the 8/9). That would put them at 48 with a slide option....

The easier way to have contract flexibility would be to let one or two of the AHL-level guys go and possibly ride out having a bunch of inexperienced defense recall options. That allows a little future flexibility if they want to sign UDFA or make a move at the NHL-level.

I'd qualify all the the current NHLer's, and probe for contracts to ERod, Larsson, and Girgs which affordably buy one or more years of UFA. The reason is it's not clear to me who ascending from the AHL is a lock for the future. We have hopes - but hope is not a plan.

As for the AHLer's, Definite "no" to Martin and definite "yes" to Smith. The remainder I'm ambivalent to. I'd hope the Sabres enter UFA season with at least 5 open contract slots, even 6. I'd like them to push for AHL deals for a couple pending RFA Amerks, with the obvious possibility they could be signed to an NHL deal if the circumstances were favorable.

I want the Sabres to have leverage of picking up a couple RFA-eligible AHLer's who are upgrades from their current pipeline, and see the opportunity for NHL playing time in the Sabres system.

 

[DJN21]

I'd retain all 3 of erod, girgs, and Larsson and that's my 4th line. Erod provides some offense and is capable defensively. When injuries happen all 3 can play center or wing and slide up the line up....that relegates Okposo to 3rd line or not in the lineup however

 

[kp2575]

They can qualify all the NHL guys, I get from an asset management point of view you have to do it but I sure hope they move some of them. Only two guys are coming out of the lineup next year in Pommers and potentially Skinner. Space needs to be created for bringing talent in, be it promotions or outside routes, it feels like every time we talk about this roster we continue to jam in the same guys we have had for years. When does "I think they can turn it around" turn into "they aren't helping this team enough"?

 

[old kummelweck]

They can qualify all the NHL guys, I get from an asset management point of view you have to do it but I sure hope they move some of them. Only two guys are coming out of the lineup next year in Pommers and potentially Skinner. Space needs to be created for bringing talent in, be it promotions or outside routes, it feels like every time we talk about this roster we continue to jam in the same guys we have had for years. When does "I think they can turn it around" turn into "they aren't helping this team enough"?

The big question is who is the 2nd line center? It's not Mittelstadt and I think Botterill as much acquiesced this when he referred to him as a 'top 6 forward' in recent interviews. If they sign an UFA center for the second line (Hayes or Duchene), or pull of a trade for one leveraging Risto (like Nugent-Hopkins), that makes one or two of 71, 22, or 28 expendable. I'm all for the 'you can never have enough centers' philosophy, but not at the expense of playmakers and/or shooters, which are scarce currently on the roster.

Again - qualify them all. It's short money. That doesn't mean they are here in October.

 

[Chainshot]

They can qualify all the NHL guys, I get from an asset management point of view you have to do it but I sure hope they move some of them. Only two guys are coming out of the lineup next year in Pommers and potentially Skinner. Space needs to be created for bringing talent in, be it promotions or outside routes, it feels like every time we talk about this roster we continue to jam in the same guys we have had for years. When does "I think they can turn it around" turn into "they aren't helping this team enough"?

I have no issue if they aren’t back as part of trades even if it is for another warty player or some sort of change of scenery deal. But not qualifying them would be foolish.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Yeah, I agree on your first point. And my issue is that for two years now Botterill has not added to his bottom 6 or any defensemen who one could think are even adequate players. If he's making decisions based on "his guys"... heaven help us.

Are you talking about bringing in players in general or bringing in UFAs in particular?

 

[Chainshot]

Are you talking about bringing in players in general or bringing in UFAs in particular?

Checking line and defensively worthwhile in trade, free agency or waivers. His depth stuff has not turned out.

 

[Chainshot]

The big question is who is the 2nd line center? It's not Mittelstadt and I think Botterill as much acquiesced this when he referred to him as a 'top 6 forward' in recent interviews. If they sign an UFA center for the second line (Hayes or Duchene), or pull of a trade for one leveraging Risto (like Nugent-Hopkins), that makes one or two of 71, 22, or 28 expendable. I'm all for the 'you can never have enough centers' philosophy, but not at the expense of playmakers and/or shooters, which are scarce currently on the roster.

Again - qualify them all. It's short money. That doesn't mean they are here in October.

I don’t think qualify or not qualifying the RFA’s will solve the second line C. But they do have some intrinsic value as NHL players, and we see these sort of guys shuffle every summer. Gus in particular seems like someone who could be used in a stagnant in/stagnant out sort of move.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Checking line and defensively worthwhile in trade, free agency or waivers. His depth stuff has not turned out.

Scandella (2017/18), Pilut... Technically he also bought in Montour although clearly not a 'depth' move. I generally like what he has done with the D given the mess Murray left him.

Bottom 6/checking line/depth forwards... Wilson? I thought Berglund was good for that role aswell but he obviously can't count as a good signing. I would agree most of his signings have been crap here. But would also say there were/ are good players already in the organisation to fill these type of roles. IE I would be far more critical of him letting the likes of Larssensons go for nothing instead of complaining about him getting signings like Josefson wrong.

 

[old kummelweck]

I don’t think qualify or not qualifying the RFA’s will solve the second line C. But they do have some intrinsic value as NHL players, and we see these sort of guys shuffle every summer. Gus in particular seems like someone who could be used in a stagnant in/stagnant out sort of move.

What I'd like to see from Gus and Larsson's roster spots is (1) 50% better point production, (2) more dynamic and effective PK (top 3rd, and dangerous short-handed), (3) maintain shot suppression metrics/defensive game. Those players should on occasion be able to move up the lineup with injuries or late-game line shuffling. Right now Gus and Larsson aren't effective above a 3rd line. Of course, all this could happen with a different coach.

 

[Member 308457]

Suffering since 1970.

 

[SundherDome]

I want to move on from Girgs not for the team but for his career. He would be very good if he was on Columbus or Boston.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

So it's that time of year aga--no, not the draft lottery. So it's that time of ye--no, not wondering who the coach will be, we just did that. So it's that ti... *sigh* no, there is no news on Ristolainen or Skinner! Shheeeeessh...

Okay, so it's that time of year again: RFA qualifying season! *crickets* Ahem... The Sabres have five roster players, all arbitration eligible, to qualify:

Johan Larsson: 26, 1-year QO would be $1.55 million, he'd be eligible to be UFA at the end of it if signed (27 years old)
Zemgus Girgensons: 25, QO would be $1.6 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer (7 seasons)
Evan Rodrigues: 25, QO would be $715,000 and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed
Jake McCabe: 25, QO would be $1.775 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer like Gus (7 seasons)
Linus Ullmark: 25, QO would be $840K and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed.

So they don't have anyone due an outsized payday like Lehner who they didn't qualify for good reason. None of these guys should be overpaid at their QO, and some should be extended on value deals. There is no reason not to QO any of them. It would be stupid if they don't.

Moving down to players who ended the season in the minors, RFA:

Eric Cornel: 23, Finished his ELC, played in all the Amerks games up to the playoffs, but what's the upside? Do they think there is a depth piece there or do they move on or do they give him one more year?
Jack Dougherty: 23, RHD always seem like a find, probably gets a QO
Remi Elie: 24, tweener waiver-bait the last few years... he'd be one I would be on the fence about but again, lack of signed depth is a concern that might tip it for extending.
Sean Malone: 24, Had another injury-plagued year, kind of on the fence about giving him a deal, but a lack of signed center depth might be the push in his favor
Brycen Martin: Never played a game in their development system last year, seems like an easy no for a QO
CJ Smith: 24, Easy yes.

So I have them not extending QO's to only one player. None of the guys on the team are in the position Lehner was, where the QO was a risk to retain a player not worth the contract. There is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA. I will type that again, in case someone can't see it... but there is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA.

At the moment, they have 30 contracts, including Pekar's that can slide when they send him back to the OHL. If they QO everyone but Martin, that puts them at 41. Signing Skinner and replacing/signing Pominville puts them at 43. They need to sign a #3 veteran tweener goalie so that's 44.

Of the Group VI guys (O'Regan, Leier, Wilcox, and Wedgewood), one goalie obviously will be in the fold, possibly two (45 contracts). O'Regan has had little opportunity and the rumors about the DEL, he might not want to be back without an NHL deal. Leier too they like but again, is that enough for the NHL level deal? Signing/replacing both puts them at 47. The UFA's in the minors are Moulson (see ya!), Tennyson (see ya?), and Porter (AHL deal?) who I could see one deal being needed (Tennyson's "vet" replacement as the 8/9). That would put them at 48 with a slide option....

The easier way to have contract flexibility would be to let one or two of the AHL-level guys go and possibly ride out having a bunch of inexperienced defense recall options. That allows a little future flexibility if they want to sign UDFA or make a move at the NHL-level.

Johan Larsson: Retain - unless he's included in a deal to upgrade the team. We know what Larsson is, and there will never be more of a ceiling. He thrived again, having a set role on the team.
Zemgus Girgensons: Retain - unless he's included in a deal to upgrade the team. I think at this point retaining him on a 1 year contract would be best. This is a spot where you can upgrade for sure.
* Evan Rodrigues: If I'm choosing between Rodrigues and Larsson, then it's Rodrigues, even though his defensive game isn't as on point as Larsson's.
Jake McCabe: Trade him.
Linus Ullmark: Qualify him. Retain until UPL is ready.

Eric Cornel: For me this is a Non-Tender
Jack Dougherty: Retain for 1 more season
Remi Elie: Non-Tender; to me there's too much of a hodge podge between Girgensons and himself.
Sean Malone: Non-Tender
Brycen Martin: Non-Tender
CJ Smith: Retain - easiest of any of the RFA's for me.

 

[Chainshot]

What I'd like to see from Gus and Larsson's roster spots is (1) 50% better point production, (2) more dynamic and effective PK (top 3rd, and dangerous short-handed), (3) maintain shot suppression metrics/defensive game. Those players should on occasion be able to move up the lineup with injuries or late-game line shuffling. Right now Gus and Larsson aren't effective above a 3rd line. Of course, all this could happen with a different coach.

Well I would love to see more production out of those roster spots, I think I am fine with them as a penalty killing duo. And I would be interested to see what sort of bumps in production they have if they were to spend two out of five shifts starting in the offense of zone instead of one out of eight. I honestly think both have shown enough scoring chops that they might be able to have a bump just by a small change in deployment.

 

[Chainshot]

Scandella (2017/18), Pilut... Technically he also bought in Montour although clearly not a 'depth' move. I generally like what he has done with the D given the mess Murray left him.

Pilut is a clear plus. Montour is not someone I would view as depth. Scandella, Hunwick have both struggled. Antipin.... and Scandella was a start but they needed more sooner.

ttom 6/checking line/depth forwards... Wilson? I thought Berglund was good for that role aswell but he obviously can't count as a good signing. I would agree most of his signings have been crap here. But would also say there were/ are good players already in the organisation to fill these type of roles. IE I would be far more critical of him letting the likes of Larssensons go for nothing instead of complaining about him getting signings like Josefson wrong.

Pouliot, Josefson, Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson, Nolan, Elie...

 

[Chainshot]

Did anyone suffer through the PHam bit last night at 6:30 on GR? I only caught part of it, but he again lead with them possibly not qualifying NHLers as his lead.

 

[Baccus]

Did anyone suffer through the PHam bit last night at 6:30 on GR? I only caught part of it, but he again lead with them possibly not qualifying NHLers as his lead.

Why do you make yourself suffer? Isn't just watching the team enough?