Speculation: Let's Talk Contracts - RFA Qualifying Offers Due June 25th, 2019

Chainshot

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So it's that time of year aga--no, not the draft lottery. So it's that time of ye--no, not wondering who the coach will be, we just did that. So it's that ti... *sigh* no, there is no news on Ristolainen or Skinner! Shheeeeessh...

Okay, so it's that time of year again: RFA qualifying season! *crickets* Ahem... The Sabres have five roster players, all arbitration eligible, to qualify:

Johan Larsson: 26, 1-year QO would be $1.55 million, he'd be eligible to be UFA at the end of it if signed (27 years old)
Zemgus Girgensons: 25, QO would be $1.6 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer (7 seasons)
Evan Rodrigues: 25, QO would be $715,000 and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed
Jake McCabe: 25, QO would be $1.775 million and if signed would leave him UFA next summer like Gus (7 seasons)
Linus Ullmark: 25, QO would be $840K and he'd still be RFA at the end of it if signed.

So they don't have anyone due an outsized payday like Lehner who they didn't qualify for good reason. None of these guys should be overpaid at their QO, and some should be extended on value deals. There is no reason not to QO any of them. It would be stupid if they don't.

Moving down to players who ended the season in the minors, RFA:

Eric Cornel: 23, Finished his ELC, played in all the Amerks games up to the playoffs, but what's the upside? Do they think there is a depth piece there or do they move on or do they give him one more year?
Jack Dougherty: 23, RHD always seem like a find, probably gets a QO
Remi Elie: 24, tweener waiver-bait the last few years... he'd be one I would be on the fence about but again, lack of signed depth is a concern that might tip it for extending.
Sean Malone: 24, Had another injury-plagued year, kind of on the fence about giving him a deal, but a lack of signed center depth might be the push in his favor
Brycen Martin: Never played a game in their development system last year, seems like an easy no for a QO
CJ Smith: 24, Easy yes.

So I have them not extending QO's to only one player. None of the guys on the team are in the position Lehner was, where the QO was a risk to retain a player not worth the contract. There is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA. I will type that again, in case someone can't see it... but there is NO REASON TO NOT EXTEND A QO TO EVERY SINGLE NHL RFA.

At the moment, they have 30 contracts, including Pekar's that can slide when they send him back to the OHL. If they QO everyone but Martin, that puts them at 41. Signing Skinner and replacing/signing Pominville puts them at 43. They need to sign a #3 veteran tweener goalie so that's 44.

Of the Group VI guys (O'Regan, Leier, Wilcox, and Wedgewood), one goalie obviously will be in the fold, possibly two (45 contracts). O'Regan has had little opportunity and the rumors about the DEL, he might not want to be back without an NHL deal. Leier too they like but again, is that enough for the NHL level deal? Signing/replacing both puts them at 47. The UFA's in the minors are Moulson (see ya!), Tennyson (see ya?), and Porter (AHL deal?) who I could see one deal being needed (Tennyson's "vet" replacement as the 8/9). That would put them at 48 with a slide option....

The easier way to have contract flexibility would be to let one or two of the AHL-level guys go and possibly ride out having a bunch of inexperienced defense recall options. That allows a little future flexibility if they want to sign UDFA or make a move at the NHL-level.
 
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truthbluth

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Nice write up. I can’t imagine Cornel gets a QO, when his position could be filled by a guy of Botts’ choosing. I probably give Malone a QO, but I’ve always had a soft spot for the local boy.
 

Husko

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Girgensons and Larsson should both get QOs. They should both accept them since the upside in negotiation is probably throwing away a year of UFA for a minor raise (2 X 2?). Their best interests are just getting to UFA.

Rodrigues obviously gets a QO and there could be some mutual interest in a semi long term deal that gets him to UFA. Sabres have all the leverage though.

Ullmark should accept his QO. He didn’t do anything noteworthy enough to earn a real contract or risk an offersheet.

McCabe we obviously give a QO too. I hope they stick to their guns and don’t feel the need to give him anything more, which he will surely ask for. I could see a GM that overvalued him thinking bows the perfect time to lock him down for a few years at low end top 4 money. That would disgust me. Let him play out his QO and get to UFA it go earn an offer sheet.

I’d qualify all the minor guys except Martin. I still have hopes of Malone carving out a role as a 4th line center. He’s getting old though.
 

Chainshot

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Nice write up. I can’t imagine Cornel gets a QO, when his position could be filled by a guy of Botts’ choosing. I probably give Malone a QO, but I’ve always had a soft spot for the local boy.

They pumped Cornel's tires hard toward the end of the year and then Taylor left him out of the playoff lineup. He was a glue guy, but at the AHL level. If he was 27, getting him to sign a Redmond sort of AHL deal would seem easy. But... he's 23. I'm sure the dream of an NHL game is still alive for him, even if it seems pretty distant. I don't think he'd take an AHL deal so that leaves qualifying him and getting what they got, or perhaps he has a bump in a bigger offensive role (I have doubts).

As for Malone, the injuries have been such a derailing element for years now. He seemed poised to take a step into NHL contention with how he finished 2018, but he needed to build on that. Instead...

If he wasn't local, I'd cut him loose. And if they could find someone to take the contract, finding a home for Devante Stephens would be the other move to free up a spot. I don't know if they can give him the Jonathan Parker treatment, but if they do make a trade this summer, I wouldn't be surprised if someone like him is attached as an ancillary piece. When the Amerks needed a defenseman late in the year, Gosselin pushed his way in and looked great doing it. He's on an AHL level deal and passed Stephens on the depth chart. It's too bad he still has a year left, because I don't see enough there to merit the contract slot.
 

MackAttack26

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Larsson - 2 x 1.75m
Girgensons - QO
Rodrigues - 4 x 2.2m
McCabe - 2 x 2m
Ullmark - 2 x 1.25m

QO - Dougherty, Malone, Smith
Bye - Cornel, Martin

The only one I would like to do more than bridge on is ERod if possible to get good value for medium term. But don't know if that is realistic.
 

Husko

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Larsson - 2 x 1.75m
Girgensons - QO
Rodrigues - 4 x 2.2m
McCabe - 2 x 2m
Ullmark - 2 x 1.25m

QO - Dougherty, Malone, Smith
Bye - Cornel, Martin

The only one I would like to do more than bridge on is ERod if possible to get good value for medium term. But don't know if that is realistic.
Not sure why either would accept those. They could just accept the QO, make almost as much money, and get to UFA in a year, where they’d both surely get raises.
 
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MackAttack26

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Not sure why either would accept those. They could just accept the QO, make almost as much money, and get to UFA in a year, where they’d both surely get raises.

That's true. I'd do something like 2 x 2 for Larsson I guess if it made a difference.

McCabe I would be fine just giving his QO. But doubt that happens. I don't want to do more than 2 years on him. Hopefully he doesn't get paid too much more or given more term, because he hasn't done anything to deserve it really.
 

Chainshot

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I suppose a question would have to be: can they find better than Cornel and Elie (and O'Regan and Leier or Porter) from the rest of the unqualified folks or low-end UFA's out there? Will there be guys to fill those additional emergency recall spots who are possibly more productive? I tend to think so.
 

old kummelweck

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I think they should qualify all of them for now - they all have value. I don't think all these players will be on the rosters come training camp. There will be some they may want to work out a longer term deal (I'm talking 2 or 3 years at most like ERod, Mccabe, and Larsson), but I'm not convinced that list of players won't get tweaked around the draft and UFA, and perhaps even after arbitration starts.

Lots to look forward to this summer.
 

Chainshot

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I think they should qualify all of them for now - they all have value. I don't think all these players will be on the rosters come training camp. There will be some they may want to work out a longer term deal (I'm talking 2 or 3 years at most like ERod, Mccabe, and Larsson), but I'm not convinced that list of players won't get tweaked around the draft and UFA, and perhaps even after arbitration starts.

Lots to look forward to this summer.

Agreed, I don't think all of the RFA NHLers start camp.

I'm just tired of the chatter from someone like PHam who seems to think walking off from below-league average contracts for the sake of contract slots is backwards.
 

itwasaforwardpass

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Erod and Larsson are the only two I'd consider giving more than a QO but I'm expecting them to extend McCabe even though his play and injuries might not warrant it.
 

old kummelweck

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I posted this in another thread, but it's very much relevant to this discussion. These players hold arbitration rights. I've starred the ones I think will file.

Girgensons
Larsson
Rodrigues*
McCabe** - possibly may file, his yearly is low given his age and years in the league.
Ullmark*
Smith
Malone
Elie

And by the way, Wilcox and Wedgewood are group 6, so the Sabres will need more goalies. May impact the Ullmark contract.
 

Chainshot

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I posted this in another thread, but it's very much relevant to this discussion. These players hold arbitration rights. I've starred the ones I think will file.

Girgensons
Larsson
Rodrigues*
McCabe** - possibly may file, his yearly is low given his age and years in the league.
Ullmark*
Smith
Malone
Elie

And by the way, Wilcox and Wedgewood are group 6, so the Sabres will need more goalies. May impact the Ullmark contract.

I mentioned about Wilcox and Wedgewood. :D I'd like to see them get a better #3 and then sign an AHL contract for a 4. I was not impressed by either. I don't think that should drive Ullmark's deal in the least. Having Johansson and UPL both shelved with surgery though is a problem.
 

Sabreality

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I'm hoping 3 years for Larsson, I want to keep our good hockey players. The role he provides is an important one that he fills well. There's nobody in the system who is guaranteed to be able to come in and fill his role in the coming few seasons and the ability to bring in quality bottom 6ers has been lost on Botts. Actually reward him with a multi year offer and don't dick around with a 1yr QO that takes him to UFA and entices him to walk away when he can.
 

Gabrielor

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In my mocking, I usually go:

QO Dougherty Malone Smith Cornel

Larsson: trying to get 3 years; 1.8 - 2.0 mil per seems reasonable.

Girgensons: I don't expect him on the team, usually because of a trade

Rodrigues: 3+ years for sure. Salary varies depending on the years.

Ullmark: 2 years: 1.75 mil per. I'm still not sold on him long term, and I don't think anyone should be. Hold serve until Luukkonen is further along.

McCabe: 3 years, 2.75 - 3 mil per. Prepare to have him (hopefully) fall down the depth chart because better talent comes in. Trade if there's a good deal to be made.


Martin, Elie: let walk.
 
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HogtownSabresfan

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Girgensons and Larsson should both get QOs. They should both accept them since the upside in negotiation is probably throwing away a year of UFA for a minor raise (2 X 2?). Their best interests are just getting to UFA.

Rodrigues obviously gets a QO and there could be some mutual interest in a semi long term deal that gets him to UFA. Sabres have all the leverage though.

Ullmark should accept his QO. He didn’t do anything noteworthy enough to earn a real contract or risk an offersheet.

McCabe we obviously give a QO too. I hope they stick to their guns and don’t feel the need to give him anything more, which he will surely ask for. I could see a GM that overvalued him thinking bows the perfect time to lock him down for a few years at low end top 4 money. That would disgust me. Let him play out his QO and get to UFA it go earn an offer sheet.

I’d qualify all the minor guys except Martin. I still have hopes of Malone carving out a role as a 4th line center. He’s getting old though.

I think it comes down to what guys (at NHL level) Freddy Krueger feels have some potential still
 

Vito_81

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Erod and Larsson are the only two I'd consider giving more than a QO but I'm expecting them to extend McCabe even though his play and injuries might not warrant it.

Because of the injuries and up and down play, I think you should try to get McCabe for 3 yrs at 2.5 AAV

He’s only 25. Still some hope he can finally settle into being a consistent guy back there. Especially in a 3rd pair role
 

Snippit

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In my mocking, I usually go:

QO Dougherty Malone Smith Cornel

Larsson: trying to get 3 years; 1.8 - 2.0 mil per seems reasonable.

Girgensons: I don't expect him on the team, usually because of a trade

Rodrigues: 3+ years for sure. Salary varies depending on the years.

Ullmark: 2 years: 1.75 mil per. I'm still not sold on him long term, and I don't think anyone should be. Hold serve until Luukkonen is further along.

McCabe: 3 years, 2.75 - 3 mil per. Prepare to have him (hopefully) fall down the depth chart because better talent comes in. Trade if there's a good deal to be made.


Martin, Elie: let walk.

Dislike that McCabe deal. He doesn’t deserve it.
 

old kummelweck

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Dislike that McCabe deal. He doesn’t deserve it.
Cost or term? I honestly haven't spent much time looking at projected salaries for players like Mccabe, but with 6 full pro seasons and them buying 2 years of UFA, I'm betting that's about where his salary would be. He can skate, play physical. The knock on him has been injuries, but he's played over 50 games each of the last two seasons. I think his defensive lapses are way overstated for a guy that could be a bottom pairing. As long as they don't give him any movement clauses (which would be unlikely), I think you can trade a guy like him if you want to move talent up from Roch.
 

Snippit

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Cost or term? I honestly haven't spent much time looking at projected salaries for players like Mccabe, but with 6 full pro seasons and them buying 2 years of UFA, I'm betting that's about where his salary would be. He can skate, play physical. The knock on him has been injuries, but he's played over 50 games each of the last two seasons. I think his defensive lapses are way overstated for a guy that could be a bottom pairing. As long as they don't give him any movement clauses (which would be unlikely), I think you can trade a guy like him if you want to move talent up from Roch.

Term. I think we can upgrade on McCabe on the left side (Dahlin/Pilut are already better) within the next 3 years and he hasn’t looked good playing on the right.

McCabe is just too unreliable for large portions of the season. He’s a defense first defenseman that isn’t that great at defending.
 
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