Lets talk about William Nylander.

[Gary Nylund]

I'd love to say I think these are the absolute highest they'll sign for, but I'm not sure. I definitely think Marner/Nylander might be willing to sign for closer to $7M, but Auston is a whole other beast.

Considering McDavid signed for $12.5 when the cap was $75M, I wouldn't be surprised to see Auston's agent push for at least $12M. No, he doesn't have the point production that 97 had when he extended (or the awards), but his goal scoring is historic for a player his age, and his 2-way game is better. If you assume that 34 will have a +50-goal peak, and average 40-45, while putting up 90+ points per season, it's not out of the realm of possibility he comes close to matching McDavid's contract. If we can get Mitch/Willy to take a discount, then it doesn't really matter, but I don't know that they will. I think a worst case scenario is $29M between the 3 (13/8/8), which is still doable, but I don't think it comes to that. Anything under $27M is fantastic, and I could see it being as low as $25.5M for them.

Another huge plus is that we have 3 more years of Freddy @ $5M, and 4 more years of Rielly and Kadri @ a combined $9.5, which is amazing for our window!

I see McDavid as on his own tier, his agent would have to get super creative to argue Matthews is in the same league. I haven't seen McDavid play that much but I can only assume his two way game is more than adequate considering how his +20 really stands out on that terrible team. I love Matthews, I really do but McDavid is something else.

Agree those last 3 contracts you mentioned are really good for us. Really hope we can add Gardiner to that list next.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Oh dear, it's too late for you. By all accounts Nylander is being groomed to replace Bozak. Nylander also played C in the SHL and the AHL. Someone recently posted that he took almost as many faceoffs as Matthews this season. Nylander played almost one quarter of the season at center (without Matthews even playing) getting 3 goals and 11 points in 20 games. It's a fairly small sample but did you watch those games? It wasn't good for Nylander and Lou knows and Nylander's agent knows it. Nylander is a product of Matthews.

Without playing with Matthews, Nylander is at best a 50 point 2-3 line center and should get paid like one. Similar to Kadri, better skills, weaker IQ and no grit, but not there yet, as I said from day one. Him and Hyman just hold Matthews back and pad their stats but hopefully next season when Nylander takes Bozak's spot we'll see.

It's sad that I have to repeat myself because you can't read a thread.

Oh dear, it looks like you didn't even read my post. Why would you quote me and "respond" if you're not going to respond to what I posted? Here it is again:

Now back to the subject at hand - did you see the text below? Did you understand it? Do you have anything to refute the contention that Nylander plays mostly on the wing and if not, why are you referring to him as a 2nd line centre?

He's had two 61-point seasons; spent more than 82 percent of his games on the wing and was one of our best players in the playoffs last year. The Leafs won't pay him just for his 34 games at center which he played over 2 1/4 seasons.

 

[IBeL34f]

Well I guess in that case then if Hymen got some PP time he'd probably be almost as good as Nylander. Get it?

Hyman's production at 5v5 is nothing close to Nylander's, just so you know. In addition to getting 11 more EVP than Hyman this year, the per-60 numbers are even more drastic (and this is coming from someone who has praised Hyman constantly for his efforts).

Nylander was 47th in the League this year in EVP/60, whereas Hyman ranked 132nd. Hell, Hyman has improved leaps and bounds from last year to this year, and his sophomore numbers don't even match Nylander's rookie numbers.

Nylander is a prolific scorer compared to a guy like Hyman (watching the games, as well as how each player puts up points, certainly corroborates this) and to repeatedly suggest that Nylander has low IQ/vision implies that you either have no idea what the hell you're looking at, or that you're not looking at anything at all except maybe some numbers on a page.

 

[Silver91]

I see McDavid as on his own tier, his agent would have to get super creative to argue Matthews is in the same league. I haven't seen McDavid play that much but I can only assume his two way game is more than adequate considering how his +20 really stands out on that terrible team. I love Matthews, I really do but McDavid is something else.

Agree those last 3 contracts you mentioned are really good for us. Really hope we can add Gardiner to that list next.

I definitely do, as well. I just think that Brisson will point to Matthews' goal scoring ability (74 goals in 144 games) vs. McDavid's (87 in 209), Matthews' PPG sophomore season, and the belief that he still has barely scratched the surface, along with the rising cap, to push for a similar contract.

I don't think he'll get it, but I won't be surprised to hear that he starts at $13M before they find a middle ground.

And yeah, I'd love to have Gardiner extend as well. Anything under $6M would be a solid deal for him going forward, depending on term.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I definitely do, as well. I just think that Brisson will point to Matthews' goal scoring ability (74 goals in 144 games) vs. McDavid's (87 in 209), Matthews' PPG sophomore season, and the belief that he still has barely scratched the surface, along with the rising cap, to push for a similar contract.

I don't think he'll get it, but I won't be surprised to hear that he starts at $13M before they find a middle ground.

And yeah, I'd love to have Gardiner extend as well. Anything under $6M would be a solid deal for him going forward, depending on term.

Start at 13M, sign for 10M, works for me.

If Lou can get Gardiner for under 6M I'll be impressed. I'd extend him for 6x6 today if I could and wouldn't be surprised if he cost more than that - like you said, the cap is going up.

 

[Discordia]

Can't play Center for a Babcock coached team - Minus value.
Can't score at a high rate without being with Matthews - Minus value.
Coach consistently questions his work ethic and defensive ability - minus value.

5 Milli.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Can't play Center for a Babcock coached team - Minus value.
Can't score at a high rate without being with Matthews - Minus value.
Coach consistently questions his work ethic and defensive ability - minus value.

5 Milli.

Is that you Minus Mitch?

 

[kindalaidback]

Can't play Center for a Babcock coached team - Minus value.
Can't score at a high rate without being with Matthews - Minus value.
Coach consistently questions his work ethic and defensive ability - minus value.

5 Milli.

1) He does not need to play center for this team to be a fantastic player
2) He had 12 points in 20 games without Matthews; both on the wing and at center
3) Babcock also praised him, said that he is the player that has improved the most and that he had one of his best games at center against Malkin.

 

[666]

Oh dear, it looks like you didn't even read my post. Why would you quote me and "respond" if you're not going to respond to what I posted? Here it is again:

Now back to the subject at hand - did you see the text below? Did you understand it? Do you have anything to refute the contention that Nylander plays mostly on the wing and if not, why are you referring to him as a 2nd line centre?

He's had two 61-point seasons; spent more than 82 percent of his games on the wing and was one of our best players in the playoffs last year. The Leafs won't pay him just for his 34 games at center which he played over 2 1/4 seasons.

I can't help you understand any better than that. You don't get it. We're done here.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Is that you Minus Mitch?

It must be difficult to manage so many accounts.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I can't understand any better than that. I don't get it. We're done here.

FYP.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It must be difficult to manage so many accounts.

Maybe they have their own private forum with Interactif/TWS where they share tips?

 

[Discordia]

1) He does not need to play center for this team to be a fantastic player

he does if he wants big money.

2) He had 12 points in 20 games without Matthews; both on the wing and at center

Garbage production. He's a coat-tail rider like Hyman who plays on the powerplay.

3) Babcock also praised him, said that he is the player that has improved the most and that he had one of his best games at center against Malkin.

I call bullshit.

 

[Discordia]

Everyone who has a different opinion is member xyz. Everyone who has a different political opinion is russian bot!

You people are idiotic.

 

[Faltorvo]

Yeah that was a bad choice of words by me. I think if he does end up at center behind Matthews, he's not going to be your typical 2nd line scoring center. If they decide he needs to work more at center (Which I think they do and hope they do) I think he has 70 point potential in that position.

OOf, geez man, thats a really high bar

70p lands you 20th is C scoring this season.

 

[Silver91]

Start at 13M, sign for 10M, works for me.

If Lou can get Gardiner for under 6M I'll be impressed. I'd extend him for 6x6 today if I could and wouldn't be surprised if he cost more than that - like you said, the cap is going up.

Would love that for Matthews, but I don't think he'll settle that low. Anything between Eichel and McDavid is fine, obviously closer to Eichel is better.

As for Gardiner, his closest comparable is probably Fowler, who is almost literally the exact same player through both their careers, and got 6.5*8.

Fowler was 3 years younger though, so I think a 6-6.5*6 contract should be right in that wheel house.

At the time of extension (assuming Gardiner extends this summer)

Gardiner (28): 489 GP | 42 G | 173 A | 215 P | 0.44 PPG
Fowler (25): 494 GP | 45 G | 172 A | 217 P | 0.44 PPG

The biggest difference is that Jake had a stronger year pre-extension (5/47/52 vs 11/28/39), which might net him an extra year or a higher AAVV.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Found this quite interesting:


His back pressure can be a thing of beauty.

 

[666]

Hyman's production at 5v5 is nothing close to Nylander's, just so you know. In addition to getting 11 more EVP than Hyman this year, the per-60 numbers are even more drastic (and this is coming from someone who has praised Hyman constantly for his efforts).

Nylander was 47th in the League this year in EVP/60, whereas Hyman ranked 132nd. Hell, Hyman has improved leaps and bounds from last year to this year, and his sophomore numbers don't even match Nylander's rookie numbers.

Nylander is a prolific scorer compared to a guy like Hyman (watching the games, as well as how each player puts up points, certainly corroborates this) and to repeatedly suggest that Nylander has low IQ/vision implies that you either have no idea what the hell you're looking at, or that you're not looking at anything at all except maybe some numbers on a page.

You are totally missing the point. No one is saying Nylander and Hyman are similar but they do both benefit greatly from playing with Matthews and management knows it.

I'll try one last time. You have to look at it from a management perspective. If Hyman's agent goes into his next negotiation and suggests that Hyman is a 40 point 5v5 top line winger he'll get laughed out of the office. Just look at his WOWY stats without Matthews. How much value do you think Matthews adds to Hymans value? The answer is nothing because management isn't stupid. Sometime coaches play 3rd and 4th liners on the first line. It doesn't mean that they are first liners. Hyman will never get paid like a first liner because he isn't one.

Now re-read all that apply the same reasoning to Nylander but change 3rd and 4th liner to 2nd liner. What option do you think management will pick:

1) pay Nylander as an elite top line winger who can carry a line on his own even though he's never been a top line winger without Matthews in the NHL.

2) pay Nylander as a second line winger which he seems to be when he plays wing on other lines.

3) pay Nylander as a second or third line center that he's obviously being groomed for and has played a quarter of the season as.

It's that simple. If you pay Nylander big bucks because Matthews makes him look good then you're gonna have to pay Hyman big bucks too just not as much.

 

[Liminality]

OOf, geez man, thats a really high bar

70p lands you 20th is C scoring this season.

Maybe it is, I was thinking that'd be in his prime if he was 2nd line C. He's got the potential PP point increase and development that could happen. Looking at other teams I think it's doable for the Leafs to have two scoring line centers that are pretty effective too. Larkin at 63 and Zetterberg at 56, Eichel at 64 and O Reilly at 61, Barkov at 78 and Trocheck at 75, Barzal at 85 and Tavares at 84, Giroux at 102 and Couturier at 76, Malkin at 98 and Crosby at 89, Pavalski at 66 and Couture at 61, Stamkos at 86 and Point at 66.

 

[IBeL34f]

You are totally missing the point. No one is saying Nylander and Hyman are similar but they do both benefit greatly from playing with Matthews and management knows it.

I'll try one last time. You have to look at it from a management perspective. If Hyman's agent goes into his next negotiation and suggests that Hyman is a 40 point 5v5 top line winger he'll get laughed out of the office. Just look at his WOWY stats without Matthews. How much value do you think Matthews adds to Hymans value? The answer is nothing because management isn't stupid. Sometime coaches play 3rd and 4th liners on the first line. It doesn't mean that they are first liners. Hyman will never get paid like a first liner because he isn't one.

Now re-read all that apply the same reasoning to Nylander but change 3rd and 4th liner to 2nd liner. What option do you think management will pick:

1) pay Nylander as an elite top line winger who can carry a line on his own even though he's never been a top line winger without Matthews in the NHL.

2) pay Nylander as a second line winger which he seems to be when he plays wing on other lines.

3) pay Nylander as a second or third line center that he's obviously being groomed for and has played a quarter of the season as.

It's that simple. If you pay Nylander big bucks because Matthews makes him look good then you're gonna have to pay Hyman big bucks too just not as much.

Every time you call Nylander a 2nd-liner, you're missing the point, and displaying your ignorance.

I think management will pay him for what he is - a 1st-line player showcasing elite offensive abilities, skating and vision, and a willingness to improve his all-around game, with essentially limitless potential, who has yet to put everything together.

I think my biggest issue with your stance is that you seem to have decided that Nylander simply is what he is, and that management should pay him solely based on that, even though that completely goes against the current trend of NHL contracts for RFAs - Guys like Willy, who have been excellent, but still have more to prove, are going to see some of their pay come from management banking on their potential.

If you want to say that Willy is only a 60-point player right now because he's been playing with Matthews, then I can't stop you, and there's not a large enough sample-size to try and prove you wrong. But to actually watch this player and then suggest that he'll never be more than what he is now showcases either a complete lack of foresight and awareness, or a bias so deep-seated that objectivity has been rendered impossible.

Your views on Nylander are frankly just wrong. All one needs to be equipped with is eyes to see, and they can tell you this. Nylander has spent his entire life being excellent at hockey, and only the last 2 years of it being excellent at hockey with Auston Matthews. It's pretty obvious that Matthews elevates Nylander, but does not make him.

 

[666]

Every time you call Nylander a 2nd-liner, you're missing the point, and displaying your ignorance.

I think management will pay him for what he is - a 1st-line player showcasing elite offensive abilities, skating and vision, and a willingness to improve his all-around game, with essentially limitless potential, who has yet to put everything together.

I think my biggest issue with your stance is that you seem to have decided that Nylander simply is what he is, and that management should pay him solely based on that, even though that completely goes against the current trend of NHL contracts for RFAs - Guys like Willy, who have been excellent, but still have more to prove, are going to see some of their pay come from management banking on their potential.

If you want to say that Willy is only a 60-point player right now because he's been playing with Matthews, then I can't stop you, and there's not a large enough sample-size to try and prove you wrong. But to actually watch this player and then suggest that he'll never be more than what he is now showcases either a complete lack of foresight and awareness, or a bias so deep-seated that objectivity has been rendered impossible.

Your views on Nylander are frankly just wrong. All one needs to be equipped with is eyes to see, and they can tell you this. Nylander has spent his entire life being excellent at hockey, and only the last 2 years of it being excellent at hockey with Auston Matthews. It's pretty obvious that Matthews elevates Nylander, but does not make him.

I appreciate the civil discussion and respect your opinion but you've got it wrong.

Nylander's contract is up. It is highly likely that he will replace Bozak next year as a 2nd/3rd line C. If you don't agree with that then that's cool because it certainly isn't guaranteed. It would appear that he's got the ability to do that job, he'll probably get it and so he'll probably get paid like it.

He's certainly not going to be getting first line center money or elite first line winger money like Laine.

He is what he is. Who he plays with doesn't change that. Same for Hyman (a third liner), same for Marner (an elite first line winger that can carry his own line), same for everyone. That's how it works. Lou knows this.

 

[IBeL34f]

I appreciate the civil discussion and respect your opinion but you've got it wrong.

Nylander's contract is up. It is highly likely that he will replace Bozak next year as a 2nd/3rd line C. If you don't agree with that then that's cool because it certainly isn't guaranteed. It would appear that he's got the ability to do that job, he'll probably get it and so he'll probably get paid like it.

He's certainly not going to be getting first line center money or elite first line winger money like Laine.

He is what he is. Who he plays with doesn't change that. Same for Hyman (a third liner), same for Marner (an elite first line winger that can carry his own line), same for everyone. That's how it works. Lou knows this.

That's why they gave Kadri another bridge contract (his 2nd over a 3-year span) when trying to determine his long-term value to the organization, right?

These are 20-year-old kids who are in the process of this thing called development. If Nylander is what he is, then what he is is a work-in-progress - He's got tons left to show us, but what he's already shown has also been way better than you're willing to give credit for.

I definitely agree that he won't be paid like an elite 1st-liner, as he hasn't become one of those yet. I expect him to fall in the $6-7M range over 7 years (barring a bridge contract, which I could certainly see his agent recommending) - Within 2 years of that contract or less, I expect it to be a steal.

 

[Muston Atthews]

he does if he wants big money.



Garbage production. He's a coat-tail rider like Hyman who plays on the powerplay.



I call bull****.

Lmao

 

[IBeL34f]

he does if he wants big money.



Garbage production. He's a coat-tail rider like Hyman who plays on the powerplay.



I call bull****.

It's literally the headline of the first article I clicked on:
Mike Babcock on William Nylander: "I thought he played one of his best games in our lineup at center head-to-head against Malkin" | Maple Leafs Hotstove

"I thought he played one of his best games in our lineup at center. Head-to-head against Malkin, I thought he did a great job last game. He had the great tip and could’ve scored easily. I don’t think Willy is off it at all. I actually think he’s playing really well."

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Everyone who has a different opinion is member xyz. Everyone who has a different political opinion is russian bot!

You people are idiotic.

Who you calling "you people"?