Leon Draisatl - time to prove?

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It's also the first time in his career that he played with two capable wingers in RNH and Yamamoto. So comparing his rates during this recent stretch to what he did historically, with worse wingers, is a bit dubious.

Are those really capable wingers, though? And more importantly, if his numbers do fall off, will people still refer to them as capable wingers, or will the blame for his failures be shifted to them?

 

[4EDM14OIL93]

Fun stats. Compared the last 20 games for Draisiatl and Lindholm, since they've both been playing the 2C role for the majority of that time frame.

Draisaitl:
11 Goals, 18 Assists, 29 Points - 1.45PPG
Goals = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Assists = 12 Non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 17 non PP points (59%) 12 PP points (41%)
Goals Assisted by McDavid = 5 (45%)
Assists Including McDavid = 6 (33%)
Points Including McDavid = 11 (38%)

Lindholm
7 Goals, 11 Assists, 18 Points - 0.9PPG
Goals = 6 non PP, 1 on the PP
Assists = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 11 non PP points (61%), 7 PP points (39%)
Goals Assisted by Monahan = 0 (0%)
Assists Including Monahan = 3 (17%)
Points Including Monahan = 17%

Draisiatl has been proving that he can Center his own line over the last several weeks, there's no doubt about that, but at an "Elite top 5" level is still one heck of a stretch.
Nearly 40% of Draisaitls points still include McDavid. If you pro-rate McDavids impact on Draisaitl to compare to Monahans on Lindholm, it looks like this:

Goals
Non PP = 5 - 1 McDavid Assisted = 4
PP = 6 - 4 McDavid Assisted = 2
Total Goals = 6 * 0% Boost from 1C

Assists
Non PP = 12 - 0 McDavid Assisted = 12
PP = 6 - 6 McDavid Assisted = 0
Total Assists = 12 * 17% boost from 1C = 14

Total = 6 Goals, 14 Assists, 20 Points = 1.0PPG
Nothing to scoff at, but no one is calling Lindholm an Elite top 10 C in the league, even though he produces comparable numbers to Draisaitl when driving his own line.

I’m assuming this is a joke

 

[KlefDown]

If you want a subjective assessment, would say that his overall point rate in that small sample is largely driven by a fortunate rate of secondary assists that is not sustainable. However, it is still certainly strong production, and miles ahead of what he has previously done away from McDavid in his career. We will see if he keeps it up in the coming weeks.

Over the course of the full season, along with the seasons before this one, he scores at a much lesser rate at 5-on-5 when he plays without McDavid.

His "fortunate" rate of secondary assists would wash away his unfortunate rate for primary assists and goal scoring then.

Name me one player who, in your opinion, would produce at more or equal rate away from McDavid as opposed to with McDavid factoring in the Oilers constraints.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Are those really capable wingers, though?

In comparison to playing with the likes of Lucic, Rieder, Chiasson, etc. that he's played with the previous seasons when not on a line with McDavid? I'd say yes, they are more capable.

And more importantly, if his numbers do fall off, will people still refer to them as capable wingers, or will the blame for his failures be shifted to them?

Depends on the context. Are we talking about during McDavid's absence? Or with McDavid in the lineup with Kassian and whoever else on his line?

I can't see his production falling off too much in the latter case, but obviously with McDavid out and that line being the ONLY capable offensive line and teams focusing literally their entire efforts on shutting it down, I can see his numbers falling off slightly.

 

[voxel]

There's good Draisaitl (uses linemates, fewer blind passes) and there's bad-I'm-Taylor-Hall Draisaitl who hogs the puck, rushes into 1-on-3s, and makes blind passes to nobody for giveaways. Bad Draisaitl appears for a few games once in a while but thankfully it's been rare this season.

Oilers have D depth to sustain injuries but at forward... it's pretty scary.

 

[4EDM14OIL93]

Are those really capable wingers, though? And more importantly, if his numbers do fall off, will people still refer to them as capable wingers, or will the blame for his failures be shifted to them?

RNH is and has been a very solid player for his entire career. Yamamoto is showing to be an effective player thus far. If you can’t see that these players are much better than ones he has previously centred I don’t know what to say.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

His "fortunate" rate of secondary assists would wash away his unfortunate rate for primary assists and goal scoring then.

Name me one player who, in your opinion, would produce at more or equal rate away from McDavid as opposed to with McDavid factoring in the Oilers constraints.

I’m not following the logic in the first portion of your post. Not all points are created equal, and while secondary assists have some value, a secondary assist rate in excess of 1 per hour and equal to or greater than the goal and primary assist rate shows that the secondary assist rate is probably fortunate and not sustainable.

There is nobody on earth who has ever said that in his minutes without McDavid, he needs to match his performance in the minutes with McDavid. Literally not one person has ever suggested that. You are arguing against a straw man that you built.

 

[Beerfish]

Well he has already proved he is a great player the last two years.

What happens now I won't put too much stock in. He is about the only forward worth spit om the team right now.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Which is what he has done this season.


the uninformed ....

I disagree, but anywhere we can find a list of all of Drais's points so we can dissect how many are with McDavid and how many are first/secondary assists? And assuming Drais has been doing on ihis own, there has to be a certain amount of weight on McDavid taking every best defensive player away and Drais getting the leftovers. Now Drais will get the best.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

RNH is and has been a very solid player for his entire career. Yamamoto is showing to be an effective player thus far. If you can’t see that these players are much better than ones he has previously centred I don’t know what to say.

I’m not saying these players aren’t better than the linemates he has had in the past.

I am asking if we can hold them to the standard of “capable wingers” going forward, or if this perception will shift as soon as things are no longer roses and daisies.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I disagree, but anywhere we can find a list of all of Drais's points so we can dissect how many are with McDavid and how many are first/secondary assists? And assuming Drais has been doing on ihis own, there has to be a certain amount of weight on McDavid taking every best defensive player away and Drais getting the leftovers. Now Drais will get the best.

You can find all of this on Natural Stat Trick. Use the Player Index, find Draisaitl, look at teammates, compare to player summary, etc.

Leon Draisaitl - Teammates - Individual - Natural Stat Trick

Leon Draisaitl - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

 

[KlefDown]

I’m not following the logic in the first portion of your post. Not all points are created equal, and while secondary assists have some value, a secondary assist rate in excess of 1 per hour and equal to or greater than the goal and primary assist rate shows that the secondary assist rate is probably fortunate and not sustainable.

There is nobody on earth who has ever said that in his minutes without McDavid, he needs to match his performance in the minutes with McDavid. Literally not one person has ever suggested that. You are arguing against a straw man that you built.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Secondary assists - new study

Second, look at which players recorded the most 5-on-5 secondary assists per 60 minutes. If we use 6,000 minutes (over the entire 12 year period) as a cutoff, the top twelve consists of H. Sedin, Benn, Getzlaf, Backstrom, St. Louis, Williams, Thornton, Kucherov, Scheifele, Ribiero, Datsyuk and Crosby. With the exception of Justin Williams, these are all top offensive players (McDavid would have been 2nd on the list, had he met the minutes cutoff). It seems obvious that the players recording the most secondary assists per 60 aren't depth players, leaching off the offensive talents of their teammates - they're among the best offensive players in the league, and the driving forces behind their teams.

You have literally suggested countless times your opinion of Drai and him not being a #1 C or top 10 forward and that he's a lesser player due to the fact that his production drops away from McDavid

 

[Sempiternal]

3 weeks isn't going to prove anything. Drai has been great centering his own line for the past little bit but even that is not a huge sample size. If he can keep it up for an 82 game period I believe that will help silence the doubters.

Nah, some people would give the excuse that his line gets the weaker defense pairing.

 

[4EDM14OIL93]

I’m not saying these players aren’t better than the linemates he has had in the past.

I am asking if we can hold them to the standard of “capable wingers” going forward, or if this perception will shift as soon as things are no longer roses and daisies.

Assuming Yamamoto’s play doesn’t fall off a cliff (he is a rookie after all) they will be more than capable regardless of the circumstances

 

[Kamaya Painters]

Might actually be a good thing if the rest of Oilers team show up instead of putting all their hope to one player.

 

[HugginThePost]

So this essentially splits RNH & Drai up. RNH will need to be the #2 C. That second line is going to be a huge issue.

And I hope McDavid isn't going to go through what Crosby went through in his early years with injuries. The similarities arethere though. McDavid's chances at the Hart take a huge hit too.

The first line is going to be an issue too.

Kass - Drai - Yamo??

Yikes......

 

[4EDM14OIL93]

It’s like people forget that Draisaitl currently leads the league in points by a fairly significant amount.

Might actually be a good thing if the rest of Oilers team show up instead of putting all their hope to one player.

Case in point.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

No one is saying he is a bad players by any means. Top 20 player in the league, but he's always had the McDavid crutch and so far has been on the ice 70% with McDavid. That is a lot of time to already "prove" he can do it on his own.

And their schedule isnt awful for the next could weeks, but hardly easy either.

 

[Dustin]

Nah, some people would give the excuse that his line gets the weaker defense pairing.

Well you will never convince everyone I suppose but I think the logical people would just like a larger sample size to be certain. This upcoming challenge will certainly be a good measure for Drai however even if he can't sustain his numbers during this period doesn't suddenly mean he's not great either.

 

[McFlash97]

I disagree, but anywhere we can find a list of all of Drais's points so we can dissect how many are with McDavid and how many are first/secondary assists? And assuming Drais has been doing on ihis own, there has to be a certain amount of weight on McDavid taking every best defensive player away and Drais getting the leftovers. Now Drais will get the best.

He is better then Eichel though.... I know it hurts but its the truth man. Leftovers , top players, with McDavid, Without McDavid .... primary assists, secondary assists ... it is what it is, sorry man.

 

[BAM]

RNH is and has been a very solid player for his entire career. Yamamoto is showing to be an effective player thus far. If you can’t see that these players are much better than ones he has previously centred I don’t know what to say.

Perfect, so if LD does go on a scoring drought in McDavid's absence, Oiler fans better not be shifting the blame onto RNH and Yamamoto.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

With Mcdavid out, Draisatl can either silence the critic's or prove them right...for the next 2-3 weeks it's time to put the spotlight on him and his true value to the Oilers and ranking in the NHL.

Thoughts ?

50 goal season. Leads the NHL in points. What does he need to prove?

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

100% yes. We all think McDavid drives him. Time to see what he can do on his own

We all?

Speak for yourself and about 10 other trolls

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He is better then Eichel though.... I know it hurts but its the truth man. Leftovers , top players, with McDavid, Without McDavid .... primary assists, secondary assists ... it is what it is, sorry man.

As an outsider, I think Eichel is the better player.

 

[BAM]

He is better then Eichel though.... I know it hurts but its the truth man. Leftovers , top players, with McDavid, Without McDavid .... primary assists, secondary assists ... it is what it is, sorry man.

Eichel goes ppg with worse wingers than what LD has to work with.

What Oiler fans spent previous years complaining about (LD's lack of wing talent on the Oilers) has been Eichel's entire career in Buffalo.

This stretch where LD has to carry the team with McDavid out has been Eichel's career pretty much.

LD and Eichel are close, but Eichel is a tad better at comparative ages IMO.