Leon Draisatl - time to prove?

[ElysiumAB]

Dont need to prove nothing anymore

So... he needs to prove something now? Trying to figure out the linguistics here.

 

[sufferer]

McDavid's out? Well, yeah.

 

[Hockeyholic]

So this essentially splits RNH & Drai up. RNH will need to be the #2 C. That second line is going to be a huge issue.

And I hope McDavid isn't going to go through what Crosby went through in his early years with injuries. The similarities arethere though. McDavid's chances at the Hart take a huge hit too.

 

[Ctrain2k]

Yeah...

The Oilers should just forfeit the next 3 weeks of games.

Drai really can't score at all without McDavid.
He is bar none the worst 50 goal 100 point scorer in NHL history. All of his goals are easy taps into open nets, and all his assists are phantom secondary assists.

Even this year, he's drawing all the easy match-ups which is how he's beating McDavid in the scoring race.

The Oilers should really consider trading Draisaitl away for depth (2x 25 goal scorers)


I would show you a series of strange math of obscure advanced stats and random calculations to show how ineffective Draisaitl really is.










Am i doing it right?

Yes, you’re doing it perfectly actually

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

No matter what happens in the next few weeks, Draisaitl is a good player. Just accept it.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Draisaitl doesn’t have anything to prove to a bunch of message board experts who clearly never watch him play.

 

[McFlash97]

Leon Onemanteamsaitl is about to be unleashed .....

 

[Connor McConnor]

Leon is going to have to play with Neal/Kassian while Nuge centres a line of kids (assuming Benson gets the call-up again). You just hope that Leon can give you that .8-1 PPG at ES with those linemates like Connor was doing.. I think the PP will still get some goals but damn, I hope its closer to 6-7 games than 10+

Edit: EJ seems to think they will keep the RNH-Drai-Yamamoto line together and have the 3 worst lines in hockey behind them.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

100% yes. We all think McDavid drives him. Time to see what he can do on his own

 

[McFlash97]

100% yes. We all think McDavid drives him. Time to see what he can do on his own

Which is what he has done this season.


the uninformed ....

 

[notsocommonsense]

Uhhhhhhh, he leads the league in scoring

Anyone who still doubts him is clearly being willfully ignorant at this point

 

[Rubi]

The Real Deal will be back in the lineup soon. No need to panic.

 

[wretched34]

Fun stats. Compared the last 20 games for Draisiatl and Lindholm, since they've both been playing the 2C role for the majority of that time frame.

Draisaitl:
11 Goals, 18 Assists, 29 Points - 1.45PPG
Goals = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Assists = 12 Non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 17 non PP points (59%) 12 PP points (41%)
Goals Assisted by McDavid = 5 (45%)
Assists Including McDavid = 6 (33%)
Points Including McDavid = 11 (38%)

Lindholm
7 Goals, 11 Assists, 18 Points - 0.9PPG
Goals = 6 non PP, 1 on the PP
Assists = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 11 non PP points (61%), 7 PP points (39%)
Goals Assisted by Monahan = 0 (0%)
Assists Including Monahan = 3 (17%)
Points Including Monahan = 17%

Draisiatl has been proving that he can Center his own line over the last several weeks, there's no doubt about that, but at an "Elite top 5" level is still one heck of a stretch.
Nearly 40% of Draisaitls points still include McDavid. If you pro-rate McDavids impact on Draisaitl to compare to Monahans on Lindholm, it looks like this:

Goals
Non PP = 5 - 1 McDavid Assisted = 4
PP = 6 - 4 McDavid Assisted = 2
Total Goals = 6 * 0% Boost from 1C

Assists
Non PP = 12 - 0 McDavid Assisted = 12
PP = 6 - 6 McDavid Assisted = 0
Total Assists = 12 * 17% boost from 1C = 14

Total = 6 Goals, 14 Assists, 20 Points = 1.0PPG
Nothing to scoff at, but no one is calling Lindholm an Elite top 10 C in the league, even though he produces comparable numbers to Draisaitl when driving his own line.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Prove what, he already leads the league in points without playing with McD 5 on 5.

At 5-on-5, he has played 536 of his 885 minutes (over 60%) with McDavid.

 

[KlefDown]

At 5-on-5, he has played 536 of his 885 minutes (over 60%) with McDavid.

and the rest of the time he's gotten zero points right?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

and the rest of the time he's gotten zero points right?

Well, my post was merely for the purpose of correcting an incorrect statement, and had absolutely nothing to do with his performance in those minutes.

However, since you’re curious, he has scored 6 goals, 4 primary assists, and 6 secondary assists in those minutes. Among players with at least 500 minutes played at 5-on-5:

His 5-on-5 goal scoring rate of 1.03 goals/60 would rank 49th in the league.

His 5-on-5 primary scoring rate of 1.72 primary points/60 would rank 60th in the league.

His 5-on-5 point scoring rate of 2.75 would rank 11th in the league.

 

[Kranix]

Draisaitl could lead the Oilers to an 10-0-0 record without McDavid and have 28 points over that stretch that there would be people whining that the sample size is too small.

He currently leads the league in scoring, he doesn’t have to do anything other than what he’s already doing.

And he could get 0-0-0 and the Oilers go 1-9 and you'd say the sample size is too small.

 

[KlefDown]

His 5-on-5 point scoring rate of 2.75 would rank 11th in the league.

hmm so you're saying his overall 5v5 scoring rate w/o mcdavid is pretty elite. thank you for confirming

 

[Icarium]

At 5-on-5, he has played 536 of his 885 minutes (over 60%) with McDavid.

Yes and once they were separated not only did he start scoring more but the team started winning a lot more. Coincidence?

 

[Kamiccolo]

I'll eat my Morgan Rielly jersey if he ever tops this season. This is likely his career peak. Nothing wrong with that, but not much room to improve offensively, just defensively.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

hmm so you're saying his overall 5v5 scoring rate w/o mcdavid is pretty elite. thank you for confirming

No, I didn’t say that. I didn’t post anything in this thread except for statistical facts, and you’ve merely inferred subjective assessments from them.

If you want a subjective assessment, would say that his overall point rate in that small sample is largely driven by a fortunate rate of secondary assists that is not sustainable. However, it is still certainly strong production, and miles ahead of what he has previously done away from McDavid in his career. We will see if he keeps it up in the coming weeks.

Yes and once they were separated not only did he start scoring more but the team started winning a lot more. Coincidence?

Over the course of the full season, along with the seasons before this one, he scores at a much lesser rate at 5-on-5 when he plays without McDavid.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

And he could get 0-0-0 and the Oilers go 1-9 and you'd say the sample size is too small.

Considering the rest of the season he’s only led the NHL in scoring, you’re goddamn right.

Anyone saying Draisaitl is anything less than an elite player at this point is either uneducated or simply has an axe to grind.

 

[OiledGun]

Fun stats. Compared the last 20 games for Draisiatl and Lindholm, since they've both been playing the 2C role for the majority of that time frame.

Draisaitl:
11 Goals, 18 Assists, 29 Points - 1.45PPG
Goals = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Assists = 12 Non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 17 non PP points (59%) 12 PP points (41%)
Goals Assisted by McDavid = 5 (45%)
Assists Including McDavid = 6 (33%)
Points Including McDavid = 11 (38%)

Lindholm
7 Goals, 11 Assists, 18 Points - 0.9PPG
Goals = 6 non PP, 1 on the PP
Assists = 5 non PP, 6 on the PP
Total = 11 non PP points (61%), 7 PP points (39%)
Goals Assisted by Monahan = 0 (0%)
Assists Including Monahan = 3 (17%)
Points Including Monahan = 17%

Draisiatl has been proving that he can Center his own line over the last several weeks, there's no doubt about that, but at an "Elite top 5" level is still one heck of a stretch.
Nearly 40% of Draisaitls points still include McDavid. If you pro-rate McDavids impact on Draisaitl to compare to Monahans on Lindholm, it looks like this:

Goals
Non PP = 5 - 1 McDavid Assisted = 4
PP = 6 - 4 McDavid Assisted = 2
Total Goals = 6 * 0% Boost from 1C

Assists
Non PP = 12 - 0 McDavid Assisted = 12
PP = 6 - 6 McDavid Assisted = 0
Total Assists = 12 * 17% boost from 1C = 14

Total = 6 Goals, 14 Assists, 20 Points = 1.0PPG
Nothing to scoff at, but no one is calling Lindholm an Elite top 10 C in the league, even though he produces comparable numbers to Draisaitl when driving his own line.

Why are we comparing to points with Monahan? Wouldn't Gaudreau be more appropriate if we are pulling off power play points for the best power play player? Your analysis shows that he's not benefiting from playing 5 on 5 with McDavid. Weird analysis

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If you want a subjective assessment, would say that his overall point rate in that small sample is largely driven by a fortunate rate of secondary assists that is not sustainable. However, it is still certainly strong production, and miles ahead of what he has previously done away from McDavid in his career. We will see if he keeps it up in the coming weeks.

It's also the first time in his career that he played with two capable wingers in RNH and Yamamoto. So comparing his rates during this recent stretch to what he did historically, with worse wingers, is a bit dubious.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

After all the tire pumping Oiler fans have been doing, I think its fair to see how LD responds to this opportunity to lead the team.