Value of: Leon Draisaitl
- Thread starter Hockeyholic
- Start date
McNuge
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780il
edm
780il
edm
Name them. Go ahead. Do it. Pls I would love to know.
780il
edm
McNuge
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oilerbear
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- Jun 2, 2008
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I have been posting on blogs for the last 12 years.
Presenting my 20+ base theories:
My philosophical approach to the anslysis was imperical.
Human mechanics with video support.
GF and GA looking at past history non top 16 GA were 30% more likely to make playoffs than non top 16 GF teams.
Top 5 GA teams can win a cup as a bottom 30 GF team.
Top 5 GF team can only win a cup with better than avg (15th) GA.
When Button tied into servelli on TV about GF more important than GA. It was an outright lie or showing truly uneducated moronic narrative by a fool. When it comes to system facts. game play or true mechanics of play anslysis he is a real bad.
2 critical observations allowed me to 100% break down def Ga play.
1. 5 yr old me observing and 14 yr old (50 yr ago) me Realizing the violence of Clarke , Leach, Stoughtn Flin Flon bombers violence was about defending the net and going to the net. Forwards willing to penetrate the area in front of the net were bomber though. high danger shot density was observed 50 years ago.
- High danger sh density chart (rickisbox) now called homeplate 12 years later. HD sh go in 5 times more than perimeter.
- elite HD Dmen Manson, Chara, Larsson, ....
- Dpairs establish the Save% avg a goalie performs around.
7.00 HD sh 23 LD shots = .932 save% average
10.5 HD sh 19.5 LD = .916 Save% average
14.5 HD 15.5 LD = .898 save% avg. see Calgary’s Defence.
- Goalie performance is +/- save% measure relative to established save %
2. Played street (sand ) hockey with a 7 year old boy as a 10 year old (44 yrs ago). He wanted to play and trade cards. We let him play net and out. But we liked him in net. He did not stand up and drop to butterfly. He moved with the puck like a table hockey goalie with a high hit rate. Closed shots - 0% chance going in.
I have been contacting all those people who I observed or talked to about my proprietary theories. Including that young man.
Ron Gunville Player Personel Director for the PA Raiders.
Which is a whole line 0f def theory.
- Table hockey goalie.
- 0% corsi = (blocks + misses + closed shots)
- elite 0% corsi dmen = 0%corsi/corsi against. #1 3yrs K. Russell.
- High danger open shot density chart.
- Dpairs establish HD Open shot save% average goalies perform around.
The first one I presented was
- player dituation matrix: 512 groups of 3d matrix ( matricies) based on Desjardins Team, Comp, ZS. 10 years ago.
All 3 axis are critical. The copied versions were presented as 2 axis player usage charts which are a useless inaccurate representation.
- modifying results for 60% of ZS - FO ZS. Which can cause +/- 15 CF/ CA variances.
- modifying results for 40% of ZS - coaches bench change with or without pocession.
- baseline avg and +/- ranges for any player situation for allmeasurable /60 variables.
Traditional plus minus ( unit differential) is a variable that gets a situation avg and ranges. It is a great reference measure for players.
Shawn horcoff had an expected +/- avg of -31 in
06-07 -22 he was +9 better than -31
09-10 -29 he was +2 better than -31
11-12 -23 he was +8 better than -31
All, that is being discussed here needs situation, WOWY, and system structure freference in any discussion. I have presented a lot of the simplified basics of my theories on this site.
I look for high ratio variance actors.
- HD sh go in 5 times more than LD Perimeter sh.
- offensive Dmen abandon def of HD area. By Zone structure I defined them as a rover. The traditional def structure is a triangle.
2D - 1G. I defined OFf dmen as a rover 3f - 1R - 2D - 1G or a 4th forward 4f - 1D - 1G leads to a lot of opp man advantage satracks in ourDZ
- theory: offensive Dmen are offensive. since Off dmen are not dmen but occupy Fwd area by structure. Thier performance is measured against forwards. Forwards generate even offence 4 times more effectively than Off dmen. (Rovers) .
This goes back 8 years. The articles
- Forwards running NZ trap is the most critical actor affect on Zone entry.
- a lot of the Cf, GF, had 10 to 100 times less affect than high actors. Which makes them ignored ( due in significant value) in Boolean and Heyting algebra.
This is were analysis was at 12 years ago. But my human action aproach was figured out at age 12.
You don’t not have even 1/3 the story in your discussions.
Turn quicknreferences you provide does have performance value.
oilerbear
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2008
- 3,168
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Monahans draft -1 season (16 yr) performance suggested he was
Mackinnon level.
#1, #2, #3 center, LW, RW is defined by what chomp you can successfully perform against.
I was the guy who pointed out Gaudreau was lit up like a Christmas tree on the road on this board. Established with another blogger on Lowetide. Sportsnet 960 started talking about 9 months later.
Monahan proved he could successfully play against 1st comp without Johnny.
Monohan dragged up Johnny,s goal diff performance against tougher comp.His +/- (unit differential) got a lot better on the road.
Monohan has 116g 247p averaged 29g 62p last 4 seasons.
Only 7 centers had 116/247 in 4 years.
Yeah was hoping he dropped to us cause of his injury draft year.
Mackinnon level.
#1, #2, #3 center, LW, RW is defined by what chomp you can successfully perform against.
I was the guy who pointed out Gaudreau was lit up like a Christmas tree on the road on this board. Established with another blogger on Lowetide. Sportsnet 960 started talking about 9 months later.
Monahan proved he could successfully play against 1st comp without Johnny.
Monohan dragged up Johnny,s goal diff performance against tougher comp.His +/- (unit differential) got a lot better on the road.
Monohan has 116g 247p averaged 29g 62p last 4 seasons.
Only 7 centers had 116/247 in 4 years.
Yeah was hoping he dropped to us cause of his injury draft year.
Our second line Center just outscored your first line Center 2 years in a row
Lmao, no he didn't. You can't qualify a guy as a centre playing McDavid's wing. Do you even understand hockey at all?
Ever notice the only ones disagreeing are Oiler fans? Lol. Ok though, keep rocking that basement.
XXIV97
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- Jun 2, 2016
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Yes, in hockey, players do not play on single line throughout the season. In fact, the coach will change lines in game.
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Even funnier is by that evidence not including PP with McDavid Drai is... oh wait a 56 point player. We will throw that out the window though, so without McDavid he is a 64 point player that you guys are paying 8.5M a year for. And you are ok with that.
Hiya ghosty.
So you’ve come to the conclusion that if you eliminate McDavid entirely Draisaitl would have 56 points at even strength?
You know that’s good, right?
t0nedeff
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- Jun 29, 2010
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Drai is just better than Monohan it is what it is at this point. Monohan is basically what RNH was when his numbers were being propped up by Hall. Take away Gaudeau and your team doesn't actually have a number 1 or number 2 center just a bunch of number 3's.
Gaylord Q Tinkledink
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- Apr 29, 2018
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I'm not an Oilers fan, but I would like you to name 31 better centres than Draisaitl.
CageRage
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- Aug 15, 2009
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Flames have won just as many playoff rounds as the Oilers in the last decade. Just sayin'
Connor McConnor
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- Nov 22, 2017
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Why are you guys letting this Flames homer troll you so bad? Even if he's serious his opinion has been completely discredited multiple times yet you keep responding lol. Let him continue thinking our 22 year old German beast is nothing more than a 2C, he probably thinks Monahan is a top 20C too. I wonder how long his hate mail was to NHL Network when they had Drai at 20 and Monahan wasn't.
You just called him a second line center, and monahan is a 34 point player without gaudreau, so its not hard to beat monahan.
Did you forget the flames have been abysmal too, for just as long?
Maybe you should stick to roaming the streets of calgarypuck, im sure more people there share your opinion.
yababy
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- Jun 26, 2015
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Connor McConnor
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- Nov 22, 2017
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6.5m would have been less than what Pasta got on a bridge deal, $1.3m less than Kuz on similar length and performance (at time of contract + he's 3.5 years younger), $1.5m less than RyJo...
This idea that the Draisatl contract is completely abysmal is just a fallacy. He was overpaid by about $0.5-1m but when you consider his age, position, and versatility it is not that bad and most Oiler fans are not complaining. I guarantee you it'll look like a value contract within 2 years especially after the contracts we've seen shelled out this offseason to guys like E. Kane, JVR, Stone etc.
Kane, JVR, and Stone are all UFA's. Btw, Kuznetsov actually centers his line and puts up a ppg and also had more UFA years being bought, so that isn't a 1 on 1 comparison either. Wonder what his production will be when he's not on Mcdavid's wing and has to center Lucic and Pulijarvi full time.
Doesn't matter, I don't blame Draisatl for signing the contract, but Chia could've done a lot better.
