Value of: Leon Draisaitl

[McNuge]

Well lets just say Rattie gets 50 points and Pulijarvi gets 40. Puli would probably want a 2-3 million bridge, and Rattie could probably command over 4 million dollars (unless you think Chia could negotiate those numbers down). Either that or they perform poorly and Edmonton likely doesn't get anywhere this year. Plus there are other guys Edmonton has to resign as well...

You mean the top 6 or bust player who has not been able to do anything substantial after being drafted 7 years ago? He is 100% a product of McDavid in his short time on his line. He in no way is getting $4mil a year. Can't play defense and can't be the puck carrier on his line. This type of player is easily replaced by rookies or other cheap wingers on the market.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

Draisaitl in the top 20 Centres in the league for the 2nd straight year.

#NHLTopPlayers: Top 20 Centers

He is less of a centre than Giroux who is not on that list but is by far the better player.

 

[780il]

He is less of a centre than Giroux who is not on that list but is by far the better player.

Giroux played wing on the top line with Couts all year long... Smh, the effort this guy puts in just to try and make the Oilers/their players look bad.

 

[yababy]

He is less of a centre than Giroux who is not on that list but is by far the better player.

Experts disagree

 

[terrible dee]

It was very disheartening to see a player who was OBVIOUSLY being paid to carry a line, start whining along with the "Captian" Conor "yeah, I'm playing for the Art Ross" Mc David about how they want to play TOGETHER.

Drai KNEW he wasn't being paid that salary to play pond hockey side-kick to Mr. Personality, THAT is a drag for Oilers fans, shows the attitudes aren't quite where they need to be.

 

[John Bruins]

Not as overrated as Matthews is by leafs fans

Oh boy, even I know better than to tell Leaf fan that his player is over rated. This is not going to end well.

 

[John Bruins]

Someone on the Bruins page mentioned Pastrnak for Draisaitl as a comparable trade.

Can’t see Edmonton doing it because they don’t have another centre that I know of to play line 2.

If they did though would they pull the trigger on that? Just wondering really

Listen there is always one in every fan base that is willing to trade your top player. The majority of Bruins fan would never Trade Pastrnak for Draisaitl. Pastrnak has great chemistry with Bergeron & Marchand and he’s putting up better numbers than Draisaitl. Boston does NOT need any more Centermen

 

[McSuper]

Our second line Center just outscored your first line Center 2 years in a row

That doesn't prove a thing . A 3rd line C on a good team may out score a first line on Montreal this year .

This has to be the dumbest argument ever . People writing a player off because he produces with another line mate . I also see when a fan posted stats showing the difference with Draisaitl on the ice with Larsson then with Russell not one comment . I guess it doesn't suit the bash Draisaitl mob mentality .

Draisaitl is better with McDavid ....wow really
Draisaitl is worst playing with Lucic .... Man whats with him
Draisaitl is an offence driver with Larsson on the ice . Bum needs Larsson
Draisaitl is worst with Russell on the ice . Loser should be able to carry the offence and defend the D zone better

McDavid offence is better with Draisaitl and so is Draisaitl . Draisaitl is a product of McDavid .

Every player in the NHL develops chemistry with certain players on their team and produces better with them . That a fact . Let Draisaitl centre a line with 2 good wingers and he will produces like a 1c . Put him with scrubs and he still produces like a lower end 1 C and he gets crap on . Really some of the arguments and thick head people on here reminds me of 10 year old kids arguing . he refuse to believe the facts right in front of them .

Edit : No they don't remind me of 10 year old kids . The remind of of the flat earth people on youtube or the we never been to space people . it all lies . Draisaitl's production is all lies LOL

 

[McSuper]

Oh boy, even I know better than to tell Leaf fan that his player is over rated. This is not going to end well.

Better not tell them then that JT contract will be a nightmare before it is done

 

[McSuper]

I don't see the point in comparing Draisaitl to Kuznetzov. It is better to compare like with like. When people bring up the extra UFA years on the Kuz deal, I have to say that yes, UFA years should cost more, but that invites one to look at what happened in all those previous years. Kuznetzov had a slower ascent than Draisaitl, was less proven at the time of signing despite being older, and of course was drafted much lower. UFA years are worth a lot because of leverage, sure, but those big UFA numbers only go to players who were consistent in those RFA years. That's why Johansen only costed 8 million AAV despite having all those UFA years.

I don't think that Kuznetzov was used as the main comparable for the Draisaitl contract. I strongly believe that during that offseason, the agents of Drai and McDavid used a cap percentage argument. McDavid's comparable was Crosby, and sure enough the cap percentage was a bit less than Crosby's 1st contract after his ELC (although McDavid gave us more term). The comparable for Drai was Kopitar, and I can tell this because the cap percentage of that 1st contract was very similar to Drai's

Btw, I'd like to point out that Kuznetzov's contract is better than Drai's as of today. A lot of people looked at that Kuznetzov contract sideways at the time (wasn't there also a comment from the GM at the time about how he overpaid because he had to?), but the guy was arguably the best player on a cup winning team. If he were re-signed today, it would be for 9 million, if not more.

The problem with most fans like to compare contracts signed years before . The economics of the NHL changes yearly with a cap and can change big time if there an expansion as we seen this year with Vegas . So if you going to compare Draisaitl contract you have to compare it to other young centres that put up similar numbers and signed around the same time . if it was a year early + the % the cap increased to the contract .

I tell you right now I would take Draisaitl and his contract over JT . Call me a homer , call me delusional i don't care . TML fans ( some ) Like to argue Matthews is on McDavid's level . I think Matthew s one of the best young C in the game and he will have to be paid . Is he being paid as a 2C ? Or will he be a 1 C . He should be paid as a 1 C at a slightly lower rate then McDavid . Let say he gets 11 million that is 22 million in 2 C's . Where the money coming from for signing the rest of the guys ? Not all players will take a cap friendly deal for the team .

 

[McSuper]

Listen there is always one in every fan base that is willing to trade your top player. The majority of Bruins fan would never Trade Pastrnak for Draisaitl. Pastrnak has great chemistry with Bergeron & Marchand and he’s putting up better numbers than Draisaitl. Boston does NOT need any more Centermen

Come on now . If he has good chemistry with good players thats a negative . Read this thread and you will be educated

 

[McNuge]

It was very disheartening to see a player who was OBVIOUSLY being paid to carry a line, start whining along with the "Captian" Conor "yeah, I'm playing for the Art Ross" Mc David about how they want to play TOGETHER.

Drai KNEW he wasn't being paid that salary to play pond hockey side-kick to Mr. Personality, THAT is a drag for Oilers fans, shows the attitudes aren't quite where they need to be.

Huh? Neither one of these players is a drag to Oilers fans. The f*** are you talking about?

 

[easton117]

Listen there is always one in every fan base that is willing to trade your top player. The majority of Bruins fan would never Trade Pastrnak for Draisaitl. Pastrnak has great chemistry with Bergeron & Marchand and he’s putting up better numbers than Draisaitl. Boston does NOT need any more Centermen

Not saying I’d do it, but Boston absolutely needs a centreman. Specifically one in Draisaitl’s age/skill level.

The best days of Krejci are gone. Bergeron won’t last forever either. After those two it’s throw rookies to the wolves time or put Backes in a time machine to when he remembered he was one too.

And don’t say Kuraly. I like his motor but he’s a 4th liner for life

 

[oilerbear]

Around 07-08 I presented a Boolean 3D matricie consisting of 1152 then 512 groups of player situation avg and performance ranges for each group based on a Team, Comp, ZS. (Creates a performance baseline to measure true performance)
Later presented by others as a 2D player usage chart. (A pretty picture with no accurate reference)

A forward with similiar easy ZS can have a EVP/60 baseline of 1.36 for 1 st comp and 2/3rd teammates. To 2.90 EVP/60 for 3/4 comp and 1st teamates. So you kind of need to know situational pbaseline with each player they are with comparing production.

Take RNH:
He had one of the 5 best 18 yr seasons of modern era facing 2 Nd comp with 1st/2nd teammates. .84 ppg.

The 2 other times he has run vs 2nd comp he was
.38+ gpg .95+ ppg with Eberle.
.500 gpg 1.06 ppg with Mcdavid.

He had similiar even production to Toews, Bergeron, and the best Even PVP centers in his 3 healthy seasons.

Tavares has never been asked to take on a PvP roll.
Reflected in his higher production. But relative to baseline not out of ordinary.

You need by teammate situation averages to compare performance. I have presented what I thought was 20+ base theories on hockey. As I visit blogs ( while on LT disability for Cancer) and re capture all the ideas that MSM and analytic community has copied over the last 12+ years.
It is closer to 50+ theories.

Most of the analytic community is Academic linear anslytics, who keep themselves in a box sheltered from real world factors that affect play. Single variable approach.

From day one my theories were from observations.
1. A 4-5 year old watching the flin Flon bombers of Clarke, Leach, Stoughton. The violence was about going to the net and defending the net. As save % improved created a high ratio goal diff variance between perimeter shots. My High danger shot theory 5:1 ratio was the basis for 1/2 of GA break down.

2. 44yr ago Played street hockey with a 7r old boy when I was 10.
We let him play net. He did not stand up and flop to Esposito butterfly. He followed the puck like a table hockey goalie. The puck hit him at a high rate. JVB and Roy were the first goalies with the first phase of puck tracking.
Lad to a seperate portion to def anslysis.

Thier is a series of logical mechanisms of play that yield high end goal diff results. All my theories were developed to map at the best and worst high ratio results.

Players performance isbound by
1. the system they are asked to play in.
Off failure yeilds CA the def triangle is asked to defend.
Standard (3f-2D-1G)
Off dmen are not dmen they are rovers (3f-1R-1D-1G) or forwards (4f-1D-1G). Been told by WHL scouts that progressive teams accept my rover portion of my theory.
2. Team, comp, 60% FO ZS situation baseline.
3. 40% bench change ZS with or without pocession.
4. Failure for forwards to run NZ trap biggest factor on Zone entry.

Thier are very complex actions that establish expected baseline performance for any player. You have to break down them into a collection of baselines to see a player in each specialized situation they are asked to play in.

That is were I was at 12 years ago.
That lead it a simplified identification of cup core Theory I have presented for years on hear
The players you want.

On April 8, 2017 I said the expansion draft would let Vegas get to the cup final.
Might want to compare thier exp selections to that theory.

Who is better?
What is your system.
Is the player a elite +ve player in any given situation.
Unit diff can vary from -29 +/- 9 to +30 +/- 12 for a player.

I gave a simplified representation of Draisatl earlierbon in this.

Ran into a cup wining coach the summer he was considering stepping away from the game. I congratulated him on there org replacing a veteran by trading for a young dman my prospect standard suggested he could be an elite HD Dman.

“Your into analytics”
“Yes”
“ we are turning players into robots.”

Knew right away why he wanted to walk away.

As teams start to identify ( copy) best Goal diff play it becomes robotic in nature.
That coach is 100% correct.

Draisatl:
Reg season he is not a PvP center yet.

But situationally is ideal as a 2nd comp Even Center.
With top 5/center Even production.
And
Can run PvP in the playoffs.

Currently untouchable!

 

[yababy]

Better not tell them then that JT contract will be a nightmare before it is done

In 3 years would be my guess

 

[ManofSteel55]

He is less of a centre than Giroux who is not on that list but is by far the better player.

Giroux didn't play C at all last year.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It was very disheartening to see a player who was OBVIOUSLY being paid to carry a line, start whining along with the "Captian" Conor "yeah, I'm playing for the Art Ross" Mc David about how they want to play TOGETHER.

Drai KNEW he wasn't being paid that salary to play pond hockey side-kick to Mr. Personality, THAT is a drag for Oilers fans, shows the attitudes aren't quite where they need to be.

I think its time for you to stop posting.

 

[McShogun99]

In 3 years would be my guess

I'm willing to bet that some fans will be calling it a bad contract by the end of next season. They are essentially paying 11 million to Tavares to be a 1B, 70-80 point center.

 

[Mr Positive]

I'm willing to bet that some fans will be calling it a bad contract by the end of next season. They are essentially paying 11 million to Tavares to be a 1B, 70-80 point center.

That could happen, but look at Pittsburgh. There might actually be an advantage points-wise in separating players, not just for the team but for the players. When you have what amounts to 2 first lines, you can start exploiting opposition checkers better and expose any lack of depth much easier. This is something we'd be trying to do in Edmonton with Drai on the 2nd line.

 

[McShogun99]

That could happen, but look at Pittsburgh. There might actually be an advantage points-wise in separating players, not just for the team but for the players. When you have what amounts to 2 first lines, you can start exploiting opposition checkers better and expose any lack of depth much easier. This is something we'd be trying to do in Edmonton with Drai on the 2nd line.

I like the Tavares signing for that reason. Plus he is young enough where he should still produce for his entire contract.

 

[yababy]

I'm willing to bet that some fans will be calling it a bad contract by the end of next season. They are essentially paying 11 million to Tavares to be a 1B, 70-80 point center.

I get that Leafs got Tavares without giving up a roster player, but if Matthew's is over 10m they have to give one up anyway.
I honestly don't understand why the didn't shore up the defence instead

 

[Mr Positive]

I get that Leafs got Tavares without giving up a roster player, but if Matthew's is over 10m they have to give one up anyway.
I honestly don't understand why the didn't shore up the defence instead

well it's not like there was a superstar UFA Dman available this offseason. Tavares was available to them... so this can be their identity. There's no rule that says that you need perfect balance all over the roster, with one elite in every position. You can leverage a huge advantage too, and make up for imbalance that way.

 

[yababy]

well it's not like there was a superstar UFA Dman available this offseason. Tavares was available to them... so this can be their identity. There's no rule that says that you need perfect balance all over the roster, with one elite in every position. You can leverage a huge advantage too, and make up for imbalance that way.

I can't think of a cup winner without an elite defenceman, like ever. Maybe back to 1974 Flyers...but I'd bet against Leafs bucking a 44 year trend

 

[McShogun99]

I can't think of a cup winner without an elite defenceman, like ever. Maybe back to 1974 Flyers...but I'd bet against Leafs bucking a 44 year trend

2006 Hurricanes

 

[Mr Positive]

2006 Hurricanes

or how about the last two Pittsburgh cups? Letang is not the Dman he once was, and Schultz was pretty great but hardly anything special. Daley too. Definitely no Pronger there.