Leon Draisaitl vs Sebastian Aho

[Binister]

Worth noting that Aho has played about as much time at C in the NHL as Draisaitl has; didn't he just switch to C fulltime last season?

If I remember correctly then yes - Aho changed to full time C last season.

 

[Saltcreek]

Because what Draisaitl achieved last season is what they expected in a career year where absolutely everything went right for Matthews.

They don't like the fact that he's a closer comparable to Draisatl than McDavid so they seek to tear him down and act as if he's some third line scrub who doesn't compliment McDavid and carry his own weight on that line.

Jealously is one hell of a drug.

This is pretty much it. It is actually really sad.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This thread is making me lean towards thinking that Aho is slowly becoming the most overrated player in the league.

Carolina's blue line's offensive strategies (mainly Pesce/Hamilton) and the way they drive possession are incredible, how much impact they have on the team and their forwards really can't be understated enough.

That may be the case, but that's too simple of an analysis and can be a bit misleading. Here's why. (sorry for the wall of text).

1) Canes have had a strong possession team for 5 years, but the only forward to eclipse 60 points other than Aho and Teravain was Jeff Skinner for 1 season. You can't on the one hand ignore the McDavid influence on Draisaitl and then chalk up Aho's success to the "defense". The same people stating that "other players couldn't produce with McDavid" would have to apply the same to the "Canes defense".

2) Aho has a strong track record of excellent performance in multiple leagues, teams and tournaments.
13-14: 4th leading scoring in Liiga JR A
15-16: Lead Karpat in Scoring as an 18 year old. 9th in the league in scoring. 2nd in the league in PPG.
15-16: 2nd leading scorer in WJC20 while playing out of his natural position (at the time).
15-16: 7 point in 10 games in the WC as an 18 year old playing against the best in the world, while in a more limited role.
16-17: 9th leading scorer in WC, tied with Gaudreau and ahead of Larkin, Rantanen, Skinner, Scheifele, etc... while playing out of his natural position.
16-17: 2nd on Carolina in scoring as a rookie and 3rd leading goal scorer among rookies that season.
17-18: 2nd leading scorer in WC just behind Patrick Kane, just ahead of Connor McDavid and highest PPG.
17-18: Leading scorer in Carolina and 1st Hurricane to hit 65 points since Eric Staal's 70 points in 2011-2012
18-19: Other than Jeff Skinner, only Hurricane to hit 30 goals since Eric Staal's 33 in 2010/2011.
18-19: First Hurricane to surpass 80 points since Eric Staal's 82 in 2007/2008 and he did this while switching to C full time, which was not his natural position.

Tournaments are small sample sizes where sometimes teams run up a score so I take those with a bit of a grain of salt, but the point is, he's pretty much excelled in every league and every tournament he's played in the past 3-4 years.

3) Aho and Draisaitl, overall, were on similar quality teams for the 3 years Aho was in the league.
16/17: EDM 103Points, CAR 87Points
17/18: EDM 78Points, CAR 83Points
18/19: EDM 79 points, CAR 99 points

Total for 3 years: EDM: 260 points. CAR: 269 points
Total Goals scored over those 3 years: EDM 701. CAR: 680

4) Aho and Draisaitl's production is very similar at the same points in their career when they were both full time NHLrs (D+2, D+3, D+4). Draisaitl is almost a year older than Aho at each of these seasons as well (9 months to be exact).
Draisaitl: 232 Games, 73G, 198P
Aho: 242 Games, 83G, 197P

Draisaitl's 50G, 105P season in his D+5 season is the clincher for me and why I voted for him. I don't care if it came on McDavid's wing, the list of guys that have hit 50G and/or 100+ points is small and that puts Drai in some elite company. Whether Aho can or cannot reach those heights, who knows, but as of right now, he hasn't. I doubt he'll get as much TOI as Drai got this year though, simply because the Canes don't need to play him that much so I don't think he will right away, but long term, maybe.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If I remember correctly then yes - Aho changed to full time C last season.

Aho changed to C with about 15 games left in the 17/18 season and then played if for all 82 games in the 18/19 season. My understanding is that he's been pretty much a winger the rest of his career other than international tournaments where he's been used (out of necessity) as a C.

 

[BKarchitect]

One of the rare polls where the actual votes reflect reality better than the comments.

Lots of ridiculous hyperbole in the comments. Poll results seem accurate though - slight edge to Drai at the moment for producing an epic scoring season. Upsides with all things being equal (linemates, team strength, normalized shooting %) are probably around the same level. Both are franchise cornerstone forwards. One just happens to play with McJesus which obviously works for him on the ice but a bit against him in perception.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Because what Draisaitl achieved last season is what they expected in a career year where absolutely everything went right for Matthews.

They don't like the fact that he's a closer comparable to Draisatl than McDavid so they seek to tear him down and act as if he's some third line scrub who doesn't compliment McDavid and carry his own weight on that line.

Jealously is one hell of a drug.

Truer words were never spoken.

Frankly speaking, Jack Eichel/Auston Matthews/Leon Draisaitl are all similar tiers of player and they can't stand it after all the Matthews>McDavid silliness from the last couple seasons.

Matthews(910 faceoffs and 52% LY, 688 and 54.5% the year before) and Draisaitl (1340 and 50.5% LY, 1198 and 56.1% the year before) are both pretty good on the draw, Eichel (47% career high) is awful but improving every year.

Neither Eichel or Matthews can stay healthy.

Matthews is the best "natural" goal scorer, Draisaitl is the best playmaker, Eichel is the best skater.

All three are similar sized (Drai 6'2, 208, Matthews 6'3, 216, Eichel 6'2, 201)

Matthews PPG is .99 over the last 3 seasons, Eichel's is .97, Draisaitl's is 1.04.

Leon is the oldest of the three (there's about a year between Drai and Eichel and about a year between Eichel and Matthews), but it's looking strongly that Draisaitl will have the best contract.

All in all very comparable players, and Aho is approaching that tier as well.

 

[NotLeddy]

That may be the case, but that's too simple of an analysis and can be a bit misleading. Here's why. (sorry for the wall of text).

I needed more context to my statement I guess, because you misunderstood what I initially meant. I know Aho's track record of being a good player, even without Pesce and Hamilton.

I think Aho is good, just not the level of player that a lot of people think he is. For example, right now, among this thread there's this narrative that he's absolutely a top 15 center in the league, who carried the Canes this season and his 83 points is all what's needed to justify this. I've seen comments on HF, Reddit, Twitter etc that Aho is interchangable with Marner, Stamkos, Matthews, etc and it just doesn't make any sense to me.

It was his first full season at center, and he produced at a 1.46 p1/60. 39 points at 5v5 and only 29 of them were primary points. I'm one of the opinion that secondary assists are not completely irrelevant, but generally they are more unsustainable from season to season and shouldn't be valued as much as primary points should be. The past three seasons he's struggled defensively ala Micah's HockeyViz graphs (first year at center, can be forgiven). Staal was Brind'Amour's matchup center who he matched with the majority of tough competition as well (not talking about zone starts, , and yet this wasn't an advantage for Aho this season, as well as the Pesce/Hamilton factor of driving possession. And it wasn't an "unlucky" situation, he had a PDO over 100.
If he was the level offensively that many hockey fans think he is, regardless of his raw point totals last season, he would've fared better at 5v5. He had a lot of help to do so. I think Aho will take a bigger step next season, but right now I stand by he's not the level of player that a lot of people believe he is.

You compare him to Larkin, for example (second full season at center), who had an atrocious blue line behind him at breaking out the puck and zone exits that was so much worse than Carolina's (4th worst possession team vs 2nd best possession team), and yet he outproduced Aho at 5v5, played against the top centers all season and excelled (until mid-March where Blashill had AA share some of the competition), was better defensively, PDO of 98, was better at making his teammates better, almost the exact same possession metrics taking out relativity, it goes on. So if Aho's not better than Larkin right now by the majority of advanced stats taking in the context of how Pesce and Hamilton affect his expected goals for, how is better than Marner, Stamkos, Matthews, and even Draisaitl? That's what I meant by my initial statement of Aho being overrated. He's just not the level of player right now that a lot of people believe he is.

 

[6ix]

Truer words were never spoken.

Frankly speaking, Jack Eichel/Auston Matthews/Leon Draisaitl are all similar tiers of player and they can't stand it after all the Matthews>McDavid silliness from the last couple seasons.

Matthews(910 faceoffs and 52% LY, 688 and 54.5% the year before) and Draisaitl (1340 and 50.5% LY, 1198 and 56.1% the year before) are both pretty good on the draw, Eichel (47% career high) is awful but improving every year.

Neither Eichel or Matthews can stay healthy.

Matthews is the best "natural" goal scorer, Draisaitl is the best playmaker, Eichel is the best skater.

All three are similar sized (Drai 6'2, 208, Matthews 6'3, 216, Eichel 6'2, 201)

Matthews PPG is .99 over the last 3 seasons, Eichel's is .97, Draisaitl's is 1.04.

Leon is the oldest of the three (there's about a year between Drai and Eichel and about a year between Eichel and Matthews), but it's looking strongly that Draisaitl will have the best contract.

All in all very comparable players, and Aho is approaching that tier as well.

Now do their career ppg. Matthews basically ppg playing with Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen.

Draisaitl is a career under ppg being strapped to McDavid or Hall with 1 outlier season last year.

Draisaitl is ineffective when he’s “the guy” on the line. He only produces elite numbers when being strapped to McDavid, and 2nd line C numbers when being strapped to hart winner Taylor Hall.

When those 2 aren’t on his line it gets ugly.

Draisaitl will always be overrated until he carries his own line and and consistently helps the Oilers contend for the playoffs as opposed to a lottery finish.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Now do their career ppg. Matthews basically ppg playing with Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen.

Draisaitl is a career under ppg being strapped to McDavid or Hall with 1 outlier season last year.

Draisaitl is ineffective when he’s “the guy” on the line. He only produces elite numbers when being strapped to McDavid, and 2nd line C numbers when being strapped to hart winner Taylor Hall.

When those 2 aren’t on his line it gets ugly.

Draisaitl will always be overrated until he carries his own line and and consistently helps the Oilers contend for the playoffs as opposed to a lottery finish.

So the year Edmonton hit 103 points and Draisaitl was far and away Edmonton's best player in the playoffs (leading them deeper than Matthews ever has the Leafs) doesn't count?

Nylander "definitely a top line winger" Kapanen "definitely a top line winger" Brown "top six player on the Oilers and "top line player Zack Hyman"? The poor darling.

Any combination of Matthews' regular linemates would be the two best players Draisaitl has ever played with when not with McDavid since Hall got dealt. Matthews is downright spoiled by comparison - to say nothing of having an offensive defenceman like Rielly.

 

[6ix]

So the year Edmonton hit 103 points and Draisaitl was far and away Edmonton's best player in the playoffs (leading them deeper than Matthews ever has the Leafs) doesn't count?

Nylander "definitely a top line winger" Kapanen "definitely a top line winger" Brown "top six player on the Oilers and "top line player Zack Hyman"? The poor darling.

Any combination of Matthews' regular linemates would be the two best players Draisaitl has ever played with when not with McDavid since Hall got dealt. Matthews is downright spoiled by comparison - to say nothing of having an offensive defenceman like Rielly.

Draisaitl feasted on weaker competition because the ducks shadowed McDavid with Kessler.

Does Drai > McDavid since he had more points that playoff? The stats also show Draisaitl has a much higher ppg in general against the ducks over any other team.

If that playoff performance was a true indicator of Draisaitl producing away from McDavid, He would be putting up a respectable 60-80 points over the regular season centreing his own line.

 

[6ix]

So the year Edmonton hit 103 points and Draisaitl was far and away Edmonton's best player in the playoffs (leading them deeper than Matthews ever has the Leafs) doesn't count?

Nylander "definitely a top line winger" Kapanen "definitely a top line winger" Brown "top six player on the Oilers and "top line player Zack Hyman"? The poor darling.

Any combination of Matthews' regular linemates would be the two best players Draisaitl has ever played with when not with McDavid since Hall got dealt. Matthews is downright spoiled by comparison - to say nothing of having an offensive defenceman like Rielly.

To add, why is it so hard to fathom that non Oiler fans want to see similar ppg production to Matthews and Eichel when centering his own line before putting him into that tier.

Malkin produced elite numbers consistent without Crosby on his line, and Pitt always had no name wingers.

Draisaitl would still be on the same PP with McDavid, so why does he need to be strapped with McDavid at ES?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Draisaitl feasted on weaker competition because the ducks shadowed McDavid with Kessler.

Does Drai > McDavid since he had more points that playoff? The stats also show Draisaitl has a much higher ppg in general against the ducks over any other team.

If that playoff performance was a true indicator of Draisaitl producing away from McDavid, He would be putting up a respectable 60-80 points over the regular season centreing his own line.

so...points against the Ducks don't count either?

Funny enough, the stats show Draisaitl would have produced 80+ points last season if he didn't play a single second with McDavid at 5 on 5, centring scrubs like Lucic and Rieder.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

To add, why is it so hard to fathom that non Oiler fans want to see similar ppg production to Matthews and Eichel when centering his own line before putting him into that tier.

Malkin produced elite numbers consistent without Crosby on his line, and Pitt always had no name wingers.

Draisaitl would still be on the same PP with McDavid, so why does he need to be strapped with McDavid at ES?

See my last post. The data shows that Draisaitl would have had 80+ points last year if he played all year on his own line at 5 on 5. Thoughts?

Also, the data shows that McDavid would have had ~95 points without Draisaitl. If he'd played with him all year, he'd have had over 130. Point of fact, Draisaitl makes McDavid better.

Matthews and Eichel have consistently gotten significantly better wingers that Draisaitl has post Hall trade.

No name wingers would be a massive improvement over the likes of Lucic and Rieder.

Draisaitl is not now, and might never be, as good as a prime Malkin was, but he does have commonality with Malkin in the sense that he will always be criminally underrated because he's the 2nd best player on his team with a generational star, and there will always be those looking to downplay his contributions.

 

[McDNicks17]

Draisaitl feasted on weaker competition because the ducks shadowed McDavid with Kessler.

Does Drai > McDavid since he had more points that playoff? The stats also show Draisaitl has a much higher ppg in general against the ducks over any other team.

If that playoff performance was a true indicator of Draisaitl producing away from McDavid, He would be putting up a respectable 60-80 points over the regular season centreing his own line.

You realize Drai was getting Getzlaf while McDavid got Kesler, right?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I needed more context to my statement I guess, because you misunderstood what I initially meant. I know Aho's track record of being a good player, even without Pesce and Hamilton.

I think Aho is good, just not the level of player that a lot of people think he is. For example, right now, among this thread there's this narrative that he's absolutely a top 15 center in the league, who carried the Canes this season and his 83 points is all what's needed to justify this. I've seen comments on HF, Reddit, Twitter etc that Aho is interchangable with Marner, Stamkos, Matthews, etc and it just doesn't make any sense to me.

It was his first full season at center, and he produced at a 1.46 p1/60. 39 points at 5v5 and only 29 of them were primary points. I'm one of the opinion that secondary assists are not completely irrelevant, but generally they are more unsustainable from season to season and shouldn't be valued as much as primary points should be. The past three seasons he's struggled defensively ala Micah's HockeyViz graphs (first year at center, can be forgiven). Staal was Brind'Amour's matchup center who he matched with the majority of tough competition as well (not talking about zone starts, , and yet this wasn't an advantage for Aho this season, as well as the Pesce/Hamilton factor of driving possession. And it wasn't an "unlucky" situation, he had a PDO over 100.
If he was the level offensively that many hockey fans think he is, regardless of his raw point totals last season, he would've fared better at 5v5. He had a lot of help to do so. I think Aho will take a bigger step next season, but right now I stand by he's not the level of player that a lot of people believe he is.

Last year in Marner and Aho discussions, when Aho had a 5v5 G/60 of .97 and a P/60 of 2.38 and P1/60 of 1.97 and Marner had a 5v5 G/60 of .77, P/60 of 2.03 and P1/60 of 1.43, HF repeatedly said: "So PP doesn't matter? The game isn't just played even strength." Now that the numbers have swapped for a year (in a year Marner got to play winger with Tavares) and Marner's G/60 was .79, P/60 2.87 and P1/60 was 2.57, "Aho isn't in his league", even though Aho who is a natural winger switched to C. We Canes fans also heard for years that our D was overrated and that the only reason we have good possession numbers is that the team just shoots from everywhere. Now though, it's used as a reason to discount a players production. People sure like to pick and choose their stats to make whatever point they want, don't they.

Anyhow, I understand where you are coming from. I voted Draisaitl anyhow so whether people say Aho is a 15th ranked C or a 20th ranked matters little to me. In the end, only time will tell.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

You realize Drai was getting Getzlaf while McDavid got Kesler, right?

No, I'm sure he doesn't, and I'm also sure he doesn't remember that Getzlaf was in full God mode that playoff series. RNH couldn't handle the matchup, so Edmonton flipped Draisaitl to his own line, and took control of the series. They let it slip away - with a hand from the war room in Toronto - but it wasn't on Draisaitl, that's for sure.

 

[6ix]

See my last post. The data shows that Draisaitl would have had 80+ points last year if he played all year on his own line at 5 on 5. Thoughts?

Also, the data shows that McDavid would have had ~95 points without Draisaitl. If he'd played with him all year, he'd have had over 130. Point of fact, Draisaitl makes McDavid better.

Matthews and Eichel have consistently gotten significantly better wingers that Draisaitl has post Hall trade.

No name wingers would be a massive improvement over the likes of Lucic and Rieder.

Draisaitl is not now, and might never be, as good as a prime Malkin was, but he does have commonality with Malkin in the sense that he will always be criminally underrated because he's the 2nd best player on his team with a generational star, and there will always be those looking to downplay his contributions.

My thoughts are if those stats are true then he would of centred his own line the whole season while obviously playing the PP with McDavid. Say McDavid only gets 95 points like you said without Drai, and Drai gets 80 on his own line, that would make the oilers a productive 2 line team. Better than an overstacked 1 line team that plays for fantasy points instead of NHL standings points...

 

[ChaoticOrange]

My thoughts are if those stats are true then he would of centred his own line the whole season while obviously playing the PP with McDavid. Say McDavid only gets 95 points like you said without Drai, and Drai gets 80 on his own line, that would make the oilers a productive 2 line team. Better than an overstacked 1 line team that plays for fantasy points instead of NHL standings points...

I'm not the coach, so my opinion doesn't matter much, but yes I would have had them on their own lines.

What happened *a lot* last year is because our wingers were so punchless and our goaltending was so bad we got stuck playing from behind a lot, so Draisaitl would be moved up to McDavid's wing to try to tie it up, and if they did it he'd tend to stay there to try to get the win.

I think you, and most people, are severely underestimating just how poor our wingers were.

 

[KlefDown]

you'd think after 3 seasons people would stop sleeping on Drai but here we are

 

[Leafsrock95]

Why is it that Leafs fans will say Matthews is a 40 goal center when he has only done this once? Would it not be more accurate to say that he is only a 30 goal center if we use your logic?

Matthews did it himself with rookies as a rookie never got carried by mcdavid nice try tho

 

[NotLeddy]

Last year in Marner and Aho discussions, when Aho had a 5v5 G/60 of .97 and a P/60 of 2.38 and P1/60 of 1.97 and Marner had a 5v5 G/60 of .77, P/60 of 2.03 and P1/60 of 1.43, HF repeatedly said: "So PP doesn't matter? The game isn't just played even strength." Now that the numbers have swapped for a year (in a year Marner got to play winger with Tavares) and Marner's G/60 was .79, P/60 2.87 and P1/60 was 2.57, "Aho isn't in his league", even though Aho who is a natural winger switched to C. We Canes fans also heard for years that our D was overrated and that the only reason we have good possession numbers is that the team just shoots from everywhere. Now though, it's used as a reason to discount a players production. People sure like to pick and choose their stats to make whatever point they want, don't they.

Anyhow, I understand where you are coming from. I voted Draisaitl anyhow so whether people say Aho is a 15th ranked C or a 20th ranked matters little to me. In the end, only time will tell.

Well for me, I'm not one of the opinion that the Canes D is underrated, I think it is among the best in the league, I'd give almost anything to have Pesce, Hamilton or Slavin on my team. I don't think anyone who tries to discredit them and their effectiveness on the team watches Carolina very much. It's an absolutely fantastic blueline.

Marner had a very high PDO (103) this season and had a lot of help, both on the power play and even strength. His p/60 isn't a good argument to discredit other players in comparison because chances are he doesn't produce at that same level at 5v5 again. Saying he's not in the same league as Aho is just blind homerism for anyone who wants to argue that. Either way, I provided other stats that suggest that Aho isn't the same level of player that many think he is (quality of competition, PDO, defensive game) to support my argument, because you're right, you can't live and die by one stat without context. I do however, think Marner is quite a bit better offensively than Aho which has to factor into how I rank the players, but for devil's advocate reasoning, Marner doesn't drive play and isn't much to write home about defensively, so it's all a matter of someone's preference to how they rank players. I know a few analytic fans who rank Mark Stone as the best winger in the league, but to me, although I love Stone, I personally can't say he's better than Kucherov because of the big gap between them in offensive production.

 

[Navx94]

Matthews did it himself with rookies as a rookie never got carried by mcdavid nice try tho

Still doesn’t change the fact that he’s only done it once. That’s like calling kucherov a 125 point winger.

 

[Saltcreek]

Matthews did it himself with rookies as a rookie never got carried by mcdavid nice try tho

Oh look, goal posts moved again. Matthews is a 30 goal center according to your metrics. How does it feel to pay 11 million for 30 goals?

 

[Crabapple]

Yes, Draisaitl plays with McDavid and probably wouldn't hit 50G without him, but he also wishes he had dmen like Slavin, Hamilton, Pesce, and Faulk slinging him up passes. Carolina is a much better team than Edmonton is, and even though he plays with one world class player, it doesn't mean he's tapping in backdoor passes or Connor's banking them in off his ass. If Klefbom's hurt, it's oftentimes McDavid and Drai vs. the entire teams themselves, and they still get it done.

Aho is still very good, and he'll have season that he'll do better than Drai. I don't begrudge anyone for taking Aho over Drai, and I'm sure both teams would rather keep their guy, but Draisaitl is getting extremely underrated in this thread. He's a player with multiple top 10 finishes in points, 50g scored (only players to do this in the last 10 years are Ovi 6x, Perry, Stamkos 2x, Crosby and Malkin) and 100 pts.

 

[KidLine93]

Close but Aho has shown he can be a ppg+ player without Mcdavid....Draisait hasnt shown that..throw him on line 2 and watch him get 70-75pts again

Put aho on oilers 2nd line with Lucic and whatever winger is in the top 6 that day. He doesn’t get anywhere near the points he had this season