Leon Draisaitl vs Sebastian Aho

[Zamuz]

Put aho on oilers 2nd line with Lucic and whatever winger is in the top 6 that day. He doesn’t get anywhere near the points he had this season

These assumptions are the funniest, Aho is the kind of player Who makes others around him better. He has been like that his entire career. I bet he would reignite Lucic

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

Put aho on oilers 2nd line with Lucic and whatever winger is in the top 6 that day. He doesn’t get anywhere near the points he had this season

Did you check Carolina players point totals last season?

 

[Regal]

These assumptions are the funniest, Aho is the kind of player Who makes others around him better. He has been like that his entire career. I bet he would reignite Lucic

McDavid couldn't make Lucic produce but Aho is going to?

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I like Aho's overall consistency and what he brings to a team on a nightly basis even if he doesn't get rewarded. You know he's going to skate up and down the ice and work his ass off, steal pucks, make plays, set up chances, get chances and just be a positive for your team in any way you can think of.

I think Draisaitl isn't always the same in game to game impact, and it's probably skating what makes this difference, Aho is such a natural at it while Drai probably needs to work a little bit harder to skate at his best.

But at the end of the day Leon has shown a higher gear when he decides to take over, at least in terms of effectiveness on the scoresheet. Slight edge to him.

 

[Binister]

These assumptions are the funniest, Aho is the kind of player Who makes others around him better. He has been like that his entire career. I bet he would reignite Lucic

That hot take just burned my soul.

 

[Jugitsu]

Aho for me. Right now Drai is the better player IMO, that 50 goal and 105 point campaign is unreal. I also prefer the player type Draisaitl represents over Aho. But if I'm looking into the future, I choose Aho but it's extremely close. Many people seem to forget that Draisaitl is only 23, soon to be 24 years old so it's not like he doesn't have room to improve. Maybe not points wise (who knows) but his overall game. I love both players even though I dislike both teams.

 

[Zamuz]

McDavid couldn't make Lucic produce but Aho is going to?

easily.

 

[KidLine93]

These assumptions are the funniest, Aho is the kind of player Who makes others around him better. He has been like that his entire career. I bet he would reignite Lucic

mcdavid+draisaitl on a line couldn't even reignite lucic. he killed plays non-stop, and its not like he wasn't given more than enough chances to prove himself

 

[KidLine93]

Did you check Carolina players point totals last season?

yeah Neiderreiter and williams smoked edmontons wingers

 

[ijif]

Lol, he’s not a legit 100 point scorer, despite scoring 100 points.

In what ****ing universe does a 100 point season gets invalidated?

I think legit can be used in two different ways. One way is "did x actually do y?", but it can be used in "can x be expected to do y consistently?" I think that is where the difference is coming from.

Also, I don't think it is invalidated. It is possible to recognize the great season it was and recognize that it is a year where the raw point totals may not be repeated. This is important only because the most common arguments made for Draisaitl are raw point arguments. For me, Draisaitl is probably going to be a "legit" 100 point scorer in the same way that Kopitar is a "legit" 90 point player. For an example closer to home, he is probably going to be a "legit" 100 point scorer in the same way that Eberle is a "legit" near point per game player.

 

[Tuffy gosewich]

Aho is better.

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

yeah Neiderreiter and williams smoked edmontons wingers

Yeah you´re right, they totally carried Aho last season!

 

[Fourier]

I’m not setting nothing if he can’t do that then I wouldn’t take him above aho really fkn simple. He hasn’t proven he can carry a line and without mcDavid he is definitely not a 100 pt player. Unless he can prove otherwise centering his own line I’ll take the player who has proven he can drive a line and is younger and imo better.

I really don’t understand what you don’t get

Lets see how the two really do compare in driving their own lines. Here are the stats over the last two years:

Leon without Nuge or McDavid: 1053 min 5 vs 5-----Team GF/60 2.16

Aho without Williams or Taravainen: 419 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 2.15

Now how does the rest of the team do without these guys:

Edmonton without McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl: 2896 min 5 vs 5---Team GF/60 1.26

Carolina without Aho, Williams or Taravainen: 3284 min 5 vs 5----Team GF/60 1.92

It would seem that Draisaitl manages to hold his own 5 vs 5 with significantly less help. If you add Nuge you get

Leon and Nuge without McDavid: 147 min 5 v 5 ---Team GF/60 2.85 (small sample size noted)

As far as McDavid carrying the load no matter who he plays with here are his numbers without Leon and Nuge;

Without Nuge, Leon 860 min 5 vs 5 -----Team GF/60 2.72

With Leon but not Nuge 1260 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 3.94ES

The reality is that even a generational talent like McDavid cannot do it all by himself. Today's defensive schemes are too good. To be successful everyone needs at least one other guy on his line that has skill and that he has chemistry with. Leon without Nuge or McDavid means pretty much plugs as line mates. Last year for example of the 500 or so minutes he played away from Nuge and McDvaid 127 of those were in the first 8 games. For the first five his linemates were Yamamoto and Lucic. The last three they were Rieder and Puljujarvi. Those 4 combined for 9 ES goals all year. In that 8 game stretch Leon had 8 points. He had 3 5 vs 5. They were all goals. That means he was on a pace for 30 5 vs 5 goals over that stretch but when no one else you are playing with can finish assists don't come easy. Even if you are a tremendous playmaker, as anyone who watches Leon would realize he is.

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

Lets see how the two really do compare in driving their own lines. Here are the stats over the last two years:

Leon without Nuge or McDavid: 1053 min 5 vs 5-----Team GF/60 2.16

Aho without Williams or Taravainen: 419 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 2.15

Now how does the rest of the team do without these guys:

Edmonton without McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl: 2896 min 5 vs 5---Team GF/60 1.26

Carolina without Aho, Williams or Taravainen: 3284 min 5 vs 5----Team GF/60 1.92

It would seem that Draisaitl manages to hold his own 5 vs 5 with significantly less help. If you add Nuge you get

Leon and Nuge without McDavid: 147 min 5 v 5 ---Team GF/60 2.85

As far as McDavid carrying the load no matter who he plays with here are his numbers without Leon and Nuge;

Without Nuge, Leon 860 min 5 vs 5 -----Team GF/60 2.72

With Leon but not Nuge 1260 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 3.94ES

The reality is that even a generational talent like McDavid cannot do it all by himself. Today's defensive schemes are too good. To be successful everyone needs at least one other guy on his line that has skill and that he has chemistry with. Leon without Nuge or McDavid means pretty much plugs as line mates. Last year for example of the 500 or so minutes he played away from Nuge and McDvaid 127 of those were in the first 8 games. For the first five his linemates were Yamamoto and Lucic. The last three they were Rieder and Puljujarvi. Those 4 combined for 9 ES goals all year. In that 8 game stretch Leon had 8 points. He had 3 5 vs 5. They were all goals. That means he was on a pace for 30 5 vs 5 goals over that stretch but when no one else you are playing with can finish assists don't come easy. Even if you are a tremendous playmaker, as anyone who watches Leon would realize he is.

What about GA/60? I mean i haven´t looked it up but i guess maybe it didn´t help your case?

 

[ijif]

What about GA/60? I mean i haven´t looked it up but i guess maybe it didn´t help your case?

Draisaitl without Hopkins and McDavid at 5v5
2018-19: 40.00 GF%
2017-19: 40.86 GF%
2016-19: 41.67 GF%

Aho without Teravainen and Williams at 5v5
2018-19: 57.14 GF%
2017-19: 50.00 GF%
2016-19: 46.56 GF%

 

[VoluntaryDom]

it may surprise some ppl here that i am voting this way...

but for me its pretty easily draisaitl.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I find that too often in these player vs. player comparisons, there doesn't seem to be enough discussion about each player's respective strengths and weaknesses. It usually devolves into stuff like so and so can only produce with so and so, or so and so has unsustainable production, but rarely delving into the "why" of it.

Take Draisaitl, for instance. All this talk about what he can or can't do away from McDavid, but no real discussion about what parts of his skillset he's lacking that suggest he can't produce away from McDavid. On the surface, Draisaitl appears to be a high-end playmaker, with good vision, and an underrated shot. Whether that translates to 50 goals and 105 points without McDavid is up in the air, but his actual skillset suggests he should be able to perform without McDavid.

Essentially, it would be nice to see evaluations of players based on what they're good/bad at, rather than just coming to conclusions based on p/60 stats with or without certain linemates to draw those conclusions.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Truer words were never spoken.

Frankly speaking, Jack Eichel/Auston Matthews/Leon Draisaitl are all similar tiers of player and they can't stand it after all the Matthews>McDavid silliness from the last couple seasons.

Matthews(910 faceoffs and 52% LY, 688 and 54.5% the year before) and Draisaitl (1340 and 50.5% LY, 1198 and 56.1% the year before) are both pretty good on the draw, Eichel (47% career high) is awful but improving every year.

Neither Eichel or Matthews can stay healthy.

Matthews is the best "natural" goal scorer, Draisaitl is the best playmaker, Eichel is the best skater.

All three are similar sized (Drai 6'2, 208, Matthews 6'3, 216, Eichel 6'2, 201)

Matthews PPG is .99 over the last 3 seasons, Eichel's is .97, Draisaitl's is 1.04.

Leon is the oldest of the three (there's about a year between Drai and Eichel and about a year between Eichel and Matthews), but it's looking strongly that Draisaitl will have the best contract.

All in all very comparable players, and Aho is approaching that tier as well.

Draisaitl @ 8.5/8yrs vrs Matthews @ 11.63/5yrs

I'm thinking in a year or two the contract status may not be needed to gain the same results.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Draisaitl @ 8.5/8yrs vrs Matthews @ 11.63/5yrs

I'm thinking in a year or two the contract status may not be needed to gain the same results.

I loved the one guy who justified f***ing jersey sales to why Matthews earned his money lol

 

[Fourier]

What about GA/60? I mean i haven´t looked it up but i guess maybe it didn´t help your case?

I didn't post GA/60 since this number was irrelevant to the point I was addressing. The question at hand was Draisaitl's relative ability to generate offense without McDavid. What the stats show is that Draisaitl and Aho have had similar on ice results when away from two specific team mates over the last two years. For the Oilers I chose McDavid and Nuge because beyond those two Draisaitl has little else to work with. For Aho I chose Teravainen and Williams simply because these were his two wingers being mentioned most often in this thread. But in fact, the more relevant numbers are the team performance without any of the three on the ice. In the case of Draisaitl the drop off is almost 1 goal in 60. That shows you how little offensive production is being generated by players other than McDavid, Nuge and Leon. Where as in the case of Aho the drop off was relatively minor in comparison. This means that away from the two wingers I mentioned he is likely still playing with teammates who are capable of contributing offensively. This is the context that makes these numbers relevant to the discussion at hand. Without context these sorts of stats are nearly meaningless.

In the end though the main point is that the narrative about Draisaitl not being able to carry his own line is false and typically the statistics posted to support the claim are false. (My stats don't actually prove that Leon>Aho by the way. They simply give context to each players circumstances away from their specific team mates.

If people simply watch the kid play they would see he is more than capable of carrying his on load. He is a high end talent who given something to work with is a handful to manage. He started out with elite passing skills and a playmakers mentality. He ha snow added a really effective shot to his arsenal. If people choose Aho over Draisaitl, so be it. Aho is also a great talent. But the argument that McDvaid carries Draisaitl is ridiculous.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Lets see how the two really do compare in driving their own lines. Here are the stats over the last two years:

Leon without Nuge or McDavid: 1053 min 5 vs 5-----Team GF/60 2.16

Aho without Williams or Taravainen: 419 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 2.15

Now how does the rest of the team do without these guys:

Edmonton without McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl: 2896 min 5 vs 5---Team GF/60 1.26

Carolina without Aho, Williams or Taravainen: 3284 min 5 vs 5----Team GF/60 1.92

It would seem that Draisaitl manages to hold his own 5 vs 5 with significantly less help. If you add Nuge you get

Leon and Nuge without McDavid: 147 min 5 v 5 ---Team GF/60 2.85

As far as McDavid carrying the load no matter who he plays with here are his numbers without Leon and Nuge;

Without Nuge, Leon 860 min 5 vs 5 -----Team GF/60 2.72

With Leon but not Nuge 1260 min 5 vs 5 ----Team GF/60 3.94ES

The reality is that even a generational talent like McDavid cannot do it all by himself. Today's defensive schemes are too good. To be successful everyone needs at least one other guy on his line that has skill and that he has chemistry with. Leon without Nuge or McDavid means pretty much plugs as line mates. Last year for example of the 500 or so minutes he played away from Nuge and McDvaid 127 of those were in the first 8 games. For the first five his linemates were Yamamoto and Lucic. The last three they were Rieder and Puljujarvi. Those 4 combined for 9 ES goals all year. In that 8 game stretch Leon had 8 points. He had 3 5 vs 5. They were all goals. That means he was on a pace for 30 5 vs 5 goals over that stretch but when no one else you are playing with can finish assists don't come easy. Even if you are a tremendous playmaker, as anyone who watches Leon would realize he is.

Good job

 

[Fourier]

Draisaitl without Hopkins and McDavid at 5v5
2018-19: 40.00 GF%
2017-19: 40.86 GF%
2016-19: 41.67 GF%

Aho without Teravainen and Williams at 5v5
2018-19: 57.14 GF%
2017-19: 50.00 GF%
2016-19: 46.56 GF%

And none of these numbers have any meaning with respect to the discussion at hand. GF% in its raw form is not statistic that has much if any value comparing players on different teams or who play different roles. It is essentially a plus minus derivative. And as such without context it has all the flaws of plus minus plus some others that come from the fact that it is calculated as a ratio.

To illustrate my point lets look at the top ten players in GF% from last year with the additional condition that they must have played 500+ minutes 5 vs 5. At the top is Crosby with 65.60%. This is actually quite remarkable but who else is there.
2) Teravainen 65.06%
3) Andrew Copp 6.81%
4) Tomas Tatar 64.52
5) Andres Lee 64.29%
6) Danton Heinen 63.79%
7) Nick Bonino 63.77%
8) David Backes 63.64%
9) Derek Ryan 62.96%
10) Michael Frolik 62.86%

Alex Killorn is ahead of Kucherov. So this is hardly a who's who of NHL greats. In fact Connor McDavid sits at 261st on this list just behind guys like Kenny Agostino. If you took his numbers without Leon or Nuge he would sit around 370th or so. Some other notables:

Barkov 210th
Couturier 298th
Malkin 320th
Couture 351st
Koptar 423rd

More to the point, let's look at Aho and Teravainen's GF% with and without one another over the last two years

Aho and Teravainen 60.16%
Teravainen without Aho 60.34%
Aho without Teravainen 55.70%

Now if these raw GF% numbers are to be considered relevant to the discussion at hand than one should conclude that Aho was being carried by Teravainen. Or is it possible that GF% in isolation and without context is a very poor way to compare players.

To be honest it is not possible from your post to determine if you were suggesting anything with your response to Backcheckmonster3 or simply providing a list of numbers so I am not going to assume that you meant to mislead. But the numbers you presented certainly do if someone is to read into them any relevance in comparing Aho vs Draisaitl. Unfortunately, it is all too common on HF that people present statistical data without understanding what they can and cannot actually say. And even more common that when presented with an actual valid statistical argument it is not understood.

 

[klozge]

Biased German voting Draisaitl

 

[ijif]

And none of these numbers have any meaning with respect to the discussion at hand. GF% in its raw form is not statistic that has much if any value comparing players on different teams or who play different roles. It is essentially a plus minus derivative. And as such without context it has all the flaws of plus minus plus some others that come from the fact that it is calculated as a ratio.

To illustrate my point lets look at the top ten players in GF% from last year with the additional condition that they must have played 500+ minutes 5 vs 5. At the top is Crosby with 65.60%. This is actually quite remarkable but who else is there.
2) Teravainen 65.06%
3) Andrew Copp 6.81%
4) Tomas Tatar 64.52
5) Andres Lee 64.29%
6) Danton Heinen 63.79%
7) Nick Bonino 63.77%
8) David Backes 63.64%
9) Derek Ryan 62.96%
10) Michael Frolik 62.86%

Alex Killorn is ahead of Kucherov. So this is hardly a who's who of NHL greats. In fact Connor McDavid sits at 261st on this list just behind guys like Kenny Agostino. If you took his numbers without Leon or Nuge he would sit around 370th or so. Some other notables:

Barkov 210th
Couturier 298th
Malkin 320th
Couture 351st
Koptar 423rd

More to the point, let's look at Aho and Teravainen's GF% with and without one another over the last two years

Aho and Teravainen 60.16%
Teravainen without Aho 60.34%
Aho without Teravainen 55.70%

Now if these raw GF% numbers are to be considered relevant to the discussion at hand than one should conclude that Aho was being carried by Teravainen. Or is it possible that GF% in isolation and without context is a very poor way to compare players.

To be honest it is not possible from your post to determine if you were suggesting anything with your response to Backcheckmonster3 or simply providing a list of numbers so I am not going to assume that you meant to mislead. But the numbers you presented certainly do if someone is to read into them any relevance in comparing Aho vs Draisaitl. Unfortunately, it is all too common on HF that people present statistical data without understanding what they can and cannot actually say. And even more common that when presented with an actual valid statistical argument it is not understood.

The poster asked for GA numbers, so I provided the GF% numbers because that includes both goals for and goals against, obviously. I just posted the numbers to give some information to the poster. There is no misleading happening. I take Draisaitl in this poll.

 

[Fourier]

The poster asked for GA numbers, so I provided the GF% numbers because that includes both goals for and goals against, obviously. I just posted the numbers to give some information to the poster. There is no misleading happening. I take Draisaitl in this poll.

Thanks! As I said it was not clear that you were asserting any meaning to those numbers which was why my response was not specifically directed at you but rather those who might misinterpret the numbers or use them improperly. My apologies if this was not clear. I am more than happy to take you at your word that you had no intent to mislead but experience in this debate (Draisaitl is carried by McDavid) tells me that this data will be used by some in exactly that way.