Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

[ACC1224]

Based on the regular season eye test the x/Hardwork compete analytic was average at best and disappointing at worst. When the going got tough and the checking got tight it seemed the Leafs x/Hardwork factor dropped noticeably to almost disinterested levels at times.

Zach Hyman is really the only Leaf reliable player with a x/Hardwork stat that is among the best in the league, game in and game out, and shift in and shift out. Hopefully more Leaf teammates follow his lead and dog on bone tenacity into battle and engage when it comes to compete level with and without the puck. Fancy skating is not going to get the job done if more players are not willing to get their hands dirty and pull up their socks when required to. IMO

Hard work defensively will go along way towards success. We all know defense wins Championships

 

[Dekes For Days]

We all know defense wins Championships

It doesn't. Offense and goaltending do.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

The round Robin games are being played under regular season rules. Shootout will determine winner.

 

[ACC1224]

At the end of the day the Team is too skilled to lose this series. Once they get into the playoffs though it’s hard to see them advancing with the below average goaltending, PK and defense. The Team is still lacking the most important components for success.
Here’s to hoping Keefe can find a magic elixir during camp to correct these problems

 

[Knies iT]

Johnsson skating is good news. I believe the original timeline had him returning in August so he may be on track for that.

 

[kb]

Yup thats what Bob said. If games go longer, then so be it. The games afterwards will be pushed back. Imagine starting a game at 11 PM EST

Yikes.....I am getting too old for that. lol

 

[kb]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation#:~:text=In statistics, the phrase "correlation,association or correlation between them.

Hahahahaha....so well played.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It doesn't. Offense and goaltending do.

Did you not see that he clearly said "we all know"? What more evidence do you need, plenty of broadcasters have said it as a vague platitude without context.

 

[ToDavid]

F***s Sake August 2nd can’t come soon enough.

If we lose to the Habs on the 28th the next five days will feel like an eternity.

 

[Merrrlin]

Agreed

I believe one of the underlying factors in this reason why Andersen #'s are declining post coaching change that is not often mentioned is player usage ... If you up the TOI/g of your star players increasing their minutes to push the offense, the cost of that is at the expense or your team defense, but also more importantly how longer shifts are not necessarily more productive shifts as tired players cause more turnovers/mistakes and that leads to more high danger scoring chances against or odd man rushes and by extension more qualtity shots and thus goals against etc. This seems to be reflective in Andersen's declining sv% and goaltending stats and perhaps explain why those numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

Many coaches will tell you shorter shifts make for more productive results offensively and defensively based on player energy level during that shift, and where longer shifts can lead to more breakdowns due to fatigue. With the long layoff even star players fitness and conditioning levels will not be at peak performance allowing for the same ATOI/g as previous to the stoppage without expecting adverse fallout effects. This is something worth watching as how teams our Leafs included handle this issue.

Unless we're expecting Andersen to steal games by himself then you would need a more reliable Dcore that you trust defensively to help mask this current Leafs style of play and strategy. IMO

Then how do you explain how our player defensive metrics all improved?

You are saying that Andersen's numbers are down because our star players played more and they are bad at defence, except that we improved statistically in almost every category outside GAA.

I am not sure I buy your explanation...

 

[kb]

I'd welcome Anderson into the BJ lineup, he's a net negative at this point. Struggled mightily to start the year and has now been off for like 8 months.

Clifford fighting Foligno didn't work out so well last time. Honestly, if he's just a physical presence and brings leadership, that's all I want.

I think both Foligno and Clifford understand that it was a solid punch that could have gone the other way too. But there are very few fights in the playoffs anyway.

Anderson will be way behind, and shoulders are a terrible place for a player to be injured.

 

[lovemyleafs]

Yup thats what Bob said. If games go longer, then so be it. The games afterwards will be pushed back. Imagine starting a game at 11 PM EST

Imagine staying up till 4am just to watch your team lose in triple OT

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Did you not see that he clearly said "we all know"? What more evidence do you need, plenty of broadcasters have said it as a vague platitude without context.

It was crazy when St. Louis was the 6th worst team in goals against and then suddenly their defense became cup worthy around the same time they upgraded their goaltending. Just bizarre timing

 

[kb]

Then how do you explain how our player defensive metrics all improved?

You are saying that Andersen's numbers are down because our star players played more and they are bad at defence, except that we improved statistically in almost every category outside GAA.

I am not sure I buy your explanation...

In that world....

Incorrect and bizarre musings >>> Fact based stats.

 

[kb]

It was crazy when St. Louis was the 6th worst team in goals against and then suddenly their defense because cup worthy around the same time they upgraded their goaltending. Just bizarre timing

So odd.

I thought it was because they were beastly physical?

 

[stopclickbait]

So odd.

I thought it was because they were beastly physical?

Their Grit level matched their Hard work level = GUD Pros winning the cup

 

[67Leafs67]

This is a good watch for a bit of a refresher on how we matched up against the Blue Jackets in the regular season. Obviously those games were early in the season (October 4th and October 21st) and well before the Columbus Blue Jackets had completely tuned into the details of Tortorella's structure, and also well before the Toronto Maple Leafs even had their new head coach, Sheldon Keefe, behind the bench (who as well all know, changed a lot about the team's play).

It was a 4-1 win in our second game of the season, and a 4-3 OT loss in the tenth game of the season. These are a few things from the highlights of those two games that stood out to me:

- Top-end skill absolutely has the potential to turn the tide of the series. The highlights from the first game really exemplify this, specifically Marner's second goal, where he dances Werenski and weaves into the slot, and Matthews' 4-1 goal, where he absolutely snipes it. The creativity and skill we have cannot be stopped by any structure if our guys are dialed in and ready to go. In that first game, the Blue Jackets largely outplayed the Leafs at 5v5, but our top guys took over the game regardless.

- The powerplay will be very important in this series. The Maple Leafs were able to get the puck moving quickly, and utilize the middle of the ice and bumper position to score twice on the PP in the 4-1 victory. For this reason, I'd prefer to see Rielly getting the spot on PP1...less useless shots from the point into shin pads, a better transition option, and more willing to quickly throw the puck over to Marner & Matthews on the flanks.

- Speed is a huge advantage for us. In the second game, Kapanen draws a penalty with his speed, getting a slower guy like Jenner clutching and reaching through the neutral zone. Playing against the 1-2-2 with tons of speed, and not allowing them to get settled into their structure and slow down the game and clog it up could be huge. That's why we need a ton of attention to detail on the breakouts, and creative passing routes through the neutral zone.

- The bane of the Maple Leafs' in these games is their own stupidity and lack of attention to detail in the d-zone. Sloppy turnovers (the biggest one being Marner's turnover on the PP leading to a short-handed goal against) are what the forechecking Blue Jackets prey on, and create most of their offense with. They aren't going to beat us with skill, speed, and creativity, but will play with focused aggression to force turnovers, and if the Leafs aren't careful, it will bite us. We can neutralize their offense by simply taking care of the puck. Under Keefe our defensive game hasn't been horrendous for 90% of the time, but every so often we have those games, or moments in the games, where we implode, and Andersen has not been good enough to bail us out this year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Their Grit level matched their Hard work level = GUD Pros winning the cup

This. I still can't figure out how they went from chokers to GUD Pros overnight but that is what happened.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Andersen #'s GAA and SV% were better under Babcock system in front the same Dcore than he was under Keefe system. The longer Keefe had to implement his system from taking over in mid November the worse Andersen's sv% got. We're not talking a bad week here, as this sample is trending downwards for months.

Case in point lets look at Freddy Andersen under Sheldon Keefe system.

December totals (11 games) ... .904 sv%
January totals (11 games) ......... .893 sv%
February totals (10 games) ..... .884 sv%

For the record he had a .912 (first 23 games) under Babcock (with a yearly average at .913) and a .908 under Keefe this year, where he finished with a .909 sv% full season.

It seems Andersen is struggling under the new coach's system based on these trending patterns. People are generally putting all that on Andersen personally in a team sport, but how are we ruling out that the new system is not a factor in these stats?

What does the system have to do with Freddy getting beat high glove, constantly letting in five hole goals and allowing goals that would squeak through the body on a regular basis? When he is on his game, his glove is near unbeatable, he regularly deflects pucks into the corner with his blocker, is usually ahead if the shot and looks like he is playing with authority. It was clear as the season went on he didn't look comfortable and was chasing the puck. Goalie coaches will tell you that if you're letting in squeakers, that you aren't tracking the puck. That is a confidence issue.

The guy was in a slump. Losing 3 of your D men for a month or so doesn't help either.

 

[ACC1224]

So odd.

I thought it was because they were beastly physical?

St Louis put everything together at the right time.
Physical team with solid defense.

Fair to say they were an example of the importance of defense in winning a championship.

 

[kb]

St Louis put everything together at the right time.
Physical team with solid defense.

Fair to say they were an example of the importance of defense in winning a championship.

They were worse than Toronto on D until they changed coaches, and put in Binnington. They were dead last in the NHL around Christmas.

IMO I'd say it shows how important getting stellar goaltending is. The team didn't change anything else.

 

[ACC1224]

They were worse than Toronto on D until they changed coaches, and put in Binnington. They were dead last in the NHL around Christmas.

I'd say it shows how important getting stellar goaltending is. The team didn't change anything else.

My post was in reference to the Playoffs in their Stanley Cup winning season.

 

[Martin Skoula]

St Louis put everything together at the right time.
Physical team with solid defense.

Fair to say they were an example of the importance of defense in winning a championship.

So you can have one of the worst defenses in the league straight through the new year as long as they "put it together" at the right time (in front of a rookie goalie at that).

So why worry about our defense? I'm sure they'll just "put it together" with no changes to the roster just like St Louis did.

 

[kb]

My post was in reference to the Playoffs in their Stanley Cup winning season.

They rode the hot hands. Agreed that it all came together at the right time. They weren't on my radar at the outset of the playoffs because of their decade of playoff futility.

The team needs Andersen to get hot. If he does, there is no telling how far this team could go.

 

[weems]