Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

[Dekes For Days]

So, if we win the play-in against CBJ, are we going to play Washington or the Bruins?
I've been looking a playoff charts and it seems like that might be the case?
Is this correct, or are there too many possibilities to even worry about this now?

We could play any of the top-4. It depends on how each of the 4 teams do in their round robin, and whether lower ranked teams than us win their play-in series.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I love how one of the first things people always say about Columbus is that they're healthy now and that will make the difference in this series.

Jones/Werenski/Savard Missed a total of 21 games between the three of them. Rielly/Muzzin had 39 between just the two of them. Columbus lost 95 man games to guys currently in their top 9 (All from Texier/Bjorkstrand/Atkinson/Wennberg) We lost 100 man games from our projected top 9 (Tavares/Hyman/Johnsson/Mikheyev/Nylander/Marner/Kerfoot all missed time).

The other go too is picking on the Leafs defense, but they only played about 2 periods together this year, so how do we even know how good they are / can be as a unit? We have never had the full group healthy at the end of a completed game.

Well this post begs the question of what the heck is true. Great post by the way champ!!
I had posted a couple Of times that we had a full line up for 49 minutes all year before too.
This statement that Columbus missed the most man games is a block statement.
Much different when broken down to the quality of players lost.

 

[Big Muddy]

We could play any of the top-4. It depends on how each of the 4 teams do in their round robin, and whether lower ranked teams than us win their play-in series.

OK thx.

 

[ACC1224]

So, if we win the play-in against CBJ, are we going to play Washington or the Bruins?

I've been looking a playoff charts and it seems like that might be the case?

Is this correct, or are there too many possibilities to even worry about this now?

I believe they play one of the 4 round robin teams

 

[deltamachine]

If the stars aligned and the leafs won the cup would we be allowed to have a parade? It would be awesome if we win this year but with all the “plan the parade“ jokes through the years it would be the luck of the leafs fan that we couldn’t have one.

It'd be funny if the rest of the province opened up except for the GTA and we'd have to have to designate a hub city for the parade.

 

[Big Muddy]

I believe they play one of the 4 round robin teams

Thx. Guess I'm looking too far ahead.

 

[ToDavid]

So, if we win the play-in against CBJ, are we going to play Washington or the Bruins?

I've been looking a playoff charts and it seems like that might be the case?

Is this correct, or are there too many possibilities to even worry about this now?

Too many possibilities. The second (first?) round will be re-seeded 1 through 8 in each conference and the matchups will be 1v8, 2v7, etc.

1, 2, 3, 4 could go to any of the bye teams based on the results of their round robin. 5, 6, 7, 8 will be based on the regular season point % of the winners of the qualifying round. So the Leafs could end up anywhere between 5th, if Florida, NYR, and Montreal win, or 8th, if Pittsburgh, Carolina, and NYI win.

 

[willmma]

Anyone knows how the round robin works? like regular season: 2pts per win or 1 pt for OT/SO loss ? or is it like playoffs - OT until someone wins?

 

[Big Muddy]

Too many possibilities. The second (first?) round will be re-seeded 1 through 8 in each conference and the matchups will be 1v8, 2v7, etc.

1, 2, 3, 4 could go to any of the bye teams based on the results of their round robin. 5, 6, 7, 8 will be based on the regular season point % of the winners of the qualifying round. So the Leafs could end up anywhere between 5th, if Florida, NYR, and Montreal win, or 8th, if Pittsburgh, Carolina, and NYI win.

OK thx. If I were Boston (or a Bruins fan), I'd be pretty pissed off I think i.e., not much of the reward for having the best record during the regular season which has been a principle built into the league for years.

Could be good for us though.

 

[kb]

Anyone knows how the round robin works? like regular season: 2pts per win or 1 pt for OT/SO loss ? or is it like playoffs - OT until someone wins?

It's playoff rules starting with the play in round. OT until a winner.

 

[ACC1224]

Anyone knows how the round robin works? like regular season: 2pts per win or 1 pt for OT/SO loss ? or is it like playoffs - OT until someone wins?

All games are under playoff rules

 

[X66]

It's playoff rules starting with the play in round. OT until a winner.

So does that leave room for games to potentially get pushed back a lot if some go to OT etc?

 

[kb]

So does that leave room for games to potentially get pushed back a lot if some go to OT etc?

That is what I was wondering when the schedules were announced. Doesn't appear to leave a lot of time between games if any go into any significant OT sessions.

 

[Stephen]

This is a false assessment of what's going on. It's not political at all. It's literally just using the correct metrics to evaluate what we're looking to evaluate. Nobody has said "it's all Andersen's fault". Nobody has said everything else about the team is perfect. However, the reality is that our defense is not as bad as it has been for years, and not as bad as the current perception. The reality is that our goaltending, even from Andersen, was atrocious this year. Literally everything suggests this.

Should we look to improve our defense? Sure, if good options are available. We should always look to improve areas that are league average.
Is it so bad that it will prevent us from winning? No, we're fully capable of winning with this defense, especially when healthy and with a training camp.
Will the goaltending we have gotten this year prevent us from winning? Absolutely, if it stays this bad.

That's why goaltending is the main focus right now.

Andersen has been terrible for most of this past season, so we are on the same page as far as goaltending is concerned.

But the research and analysis that’s been brought up usually comes to the conclusion that the defense and PK is not as bad as you think, the individual Dmen in question are better than you think, and therefore blame the goalie. Well yes, but if our blueline stepped it up or improved on the personnel department and foreword commitment to defense was bettter, at least that might insulate the crappy goalie until he finds his groove.

 

[ACC1224]

Andersen has been terrible for most of this past season, so we are on the same page as far as goaltending is concerned.

But the research and analysis that’s been brought up usually comes to the conclusion that the defense and PK is not as bad as you think, the individual Dmen in question are better than you think, and therefore blame the goalie. Well yes, but if our blueline stepped it up or improved on the personnel department and foreword commitment to defense was bettter, at least that might insulate the crappy goalie until he finds his groove.

Yep, the concept of a Team is lost on some.

 

[willmma]

Andersen has been terrible for most of this past season, so we are on the same page as far as goaltending is concerned.

But the research and analysis that’s been brought up usually comes to the conclusion that the defense and PK is not as bad as you think, the individual Dmen in question are better than you think, and therefore blame the goalie. Well yes, but if our blueline stepped it up or improved on the personnel department and foreword commitment to defense was bettter, at least that might insulate the crappy goalie until he finds his groove.

Yes it was a strange up and down season for Freddie. Not all bad, but a terrible couple of months.

Anderson save percentage per month

Oct: .905 : 10 Games. Standard October Freddie
Nov: .953 : 11 Games. Just BRILLIANT
Dec: .917 : 11 Games. The Freddie we know and love.
Jan: .891 : 8 Games. Slumping
Feb: .886 : 9 Games. WTF Freddie!?
Mar: .976 : 2 Games. Freddie recovered?

* note, these save percentages are based only on 5v5 play.

In fact, in his last 8 games starting Feb 17th to the pause, Freddie has recovered and was back to his standard .916 save percentage

I believe if he stays above .910 and we have healthy defense we will win the series against the Blue Jackets.


Question for you all, do you think Jack Campbell should play one of the back to backs in this series?

 

[Mess]

Andersen has been terrible for most of this past season, so we are on the same page as far as goaltending is concerned.

But the research and analysis that’s been brought up usually comes to the conclusion that the defense and PK is not as bad as you think, the individual Dmen in question are better than you think, and therefore blame the goalie. Well yes, but if our blueline stepped it up or improved on the personnel department and foreword commitment to defense was bettter, at least that might insulate the crappy goalie until he finds his groove.

Andersen #'s GAA and SV% were better under Babcock system in front the same Dcore than he was under Keefe system. The longer Keefe had to implement his system from taking over in mid November the worse Andersen's sv% got. We're not talking a bad week here, as this sample is trending downwards for months.

Case in point lets look at Freddy Andersen under Sheldon Keefe system.

December totals (11 games) ... .904 sv%
January totals (11 games) ......... .893 sv%
February totals (10 games) ..... .884 sv%

For the record he had a .912 (first 23 games) under Babcock (with a yearly average at .913) and a .908 under Keefe this year, where he finished with a .909 sv% full season.

It seems Andersen is struggling under the new coach's system based on these trending patterns. People are generally putting all that on Andersen personally in a team sport, but how are we ruling out that the new system is not a factor in these stats?

 

[ACC1224]

Yes it was a strange up and down season for Freddie. Not all bad, but a terrible couple of months.

Anderson save percentage per month

Oct: .905 : 10 Games. Standard October Freddie
Nov: .953 : 11 Games. Just BRILLIANT
Dec: .917 : 11 Games. The Freddie we know and love.
Jan: .891 : 8 Games. Slumping
Feb: .886 : 9 Games. WTF Freddie!?
Mar: .976 : 2 Games. Freddie recovered?

In fact, in his last 8 games starting Feb 17th to the pause, Freddie has recovered and was back to his standard .916 save percentage

I believe if he stays above .910 and we have healthy defense we will win the series against the Blue Jackets.


Question for you all, do you think Jack Campbell should play one of the back to backs in this series?

It would depend on how the series is going. Which games are back to back?

 

[willmma]

It would depend on how the series is going. Which games are back to back?

Games 3 and 4 on Aug 6th and 7th, which means we have lost at least one game and one at least one game.

 

[ACC1224]

Games 3 and 4 on Aug 6th and 7th, which means we have lost at least one game and one at least one game.

4 games in 6 days is a lot.
I guess it depends on workload but I would be surprised if Andersen doesn’t start every game.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Andersen #'s GAA and SV% were better under Babcock system in front the same Dcore than he was under Keefe system. The longer Keefe had to implement his system from taking over in mid November the worse Andersen's sv% got. We're not talking a bad week here, as this sample is trending downwards for months.

Case in point lets look at Freddy Andersen under Sheldon Keefe system.

December totals (11 games) ... .904 sv%
January totals (11 games) ......... .893 sv%
February totals (10 games) ..... .884 sv%

For the record he had a .912 (first 23 games) under Babcock (with a yearly average at .913) and a .908 under Keefe this year, where he finished with a .909 sv% full season.

It seems Andersen is struggling under the new coach's system based on these trending patterns. People are generally putting all that on Andersen personally in a team sport, but how are we ruling out that the new system is not a factor in these stats?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation#:~:text=In statistics, the phrase "correlation,association or correlation between them.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Apparently Anderson might be an option for CBJ now.

I think Clifford is going to need to fight at least once in this series vs Foligno or Anderson.

 

[Mess]

OK thx. If I were Boston (or a Bruins fan), I'd be pretty pissed off I think i.e., not much of the reward for having the best record during the regular season which has been a principle built into the league for years.

Could be good for us though.

Leafs were trending towards playing TB in round #1 and if they won then Boston in round #2 under the old system.

Now Leafs have a 50/50 chance of playing TB or BOS if they advance.

Who are you hoping Leafs would play in round #1 after post play-in round?.

 

[Big Muddy]

Leafs were trending towards playing TB in round #1 and if they won then Boston in round #2 under the old system under the old system.

Now Leafs have a 50/50 chance of playing TB or BOS if they advance.

Who are you hoping Leafs would play in round #1 after post play-in round?.

I'd like to avoid Boston because of our history.

I'm really not sure who of the remaining three I'd like us to face. I'd guess either Tampa or Philly, but its pretty much a toss up between those other 3.

 

[stickty111]

So does that leave room for games to potentially get pushed back a lot if some go to OT etc?

That is what I was wondering when the schedules were announced. Doesn't appear to leave a lot of time between games if any go into any significant OT sessions.

Yup thats what Bob said. If games go longer, then so be it. The games afterwards will be pushed back. Imagine starting a game at 11 PM EST