Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

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Marshy

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The Leafs need to win at least one of the above and they should be ok as they have a decisive talent advantage. Columbus can win this series but they need to overcome the talent disadvantage by coming out ahead in both of the above.
 

Isaac Nootin

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Sep 28, 2017
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Apparently Anderson might be an option for CBJ now.

I think Clifford is going to need to fight at least once in this series vs Foligno or Anderson.

I'd welcome Anderson into the BJ lineup, he's a net negative at this point. Struggled mightily to start the year and has now been off for like 8 months.

Clifford fighting Foligno didn't work out so well last time. Honestly, if he's just a physical presence and brings leadership, that's all I want.
 
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Mess

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The Leafs need to win at least one of the above and they should be ok as they have a decisive talent advantage. Columbus can win this series but they need to overcome the talent disadvantage by coming out ahead in both of the above.

Those above categories you listed are unfortunately known strengths of CBJ and weaknesses of our Leafs. CBJ is known as a lunch pail, blue collar, hard working team lead by strong netminding. Our Leafs are a high skilled, fast skating team built for offense.

Which suggest Leafs must overcome their known weaknesses to advance despite their vaulted offense while CBJ if they simply play to their strengths could come out ahead despite their limited offense.

Probably why both teams finished with the same points% and 81 points, they just used different strengths and weaknesses to arrive at that position.

Our Leafs are favoured because of the offense, but I agree they must either outwork, or outplay or have their goaltender outperform the opposition as this will be a hard fought battle.
 
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Stephen

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Andersen #'s GAA and SV% were better under Babcock system in front the same Dcore than he was under Keefe system. The longer Keefe had to implement his system from taking over in mid November the worse Andersen's sv% got. We're not talking a bad week here, as this sample is trending downwards for months.

Case in point lets look at Freddy Andersen under Sheldon Keefe system.

December totals (11 games) ... .904 sv%
January totals (11 games) ......... .893 sv%
February totals (10 games) ..... .884 sv%

For the record he had a .912 (first 23 games) under Babcock (with a yearly average at .913) and a .908 under Keefe this year, where he finished with a .909 sv% full season.

It seems Andersen is struggling under the new coach's system based on these trending patterns. People are generally putting all that on Andersen personally in a team sport, but how are we ruling out that the new system is not a factor in these stats?

It’s not hard to explain. The Leafs were trying to play to their offensive strengths as a team and were looking to rely on Andersen to bail them out. An example of this would be like Pat Quinn’s Curtis Joseph led Leafs in 1999 when they took a skilled young group and let them run wild with a superstar goalie to bail them out. Obviously in this case, it’s to very mixed success with Andersen.

And so yes. The goaltending has been poor. But let’s also acknowledge that the team is constructed in a way and coached in a way to make use of their offensive strength as well. And to make this game plan work long term you may need to upgrade the blueline.
 

Dekes For Days

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But the research and analysis that’s been brought up usually comes to the conclusion that the defense and PK is not as bad as you think, the individual Dmen in question are better than you think, and therefore blame the goalie. Well yes, but if our blueline stepped it up or improved on the personnel department and foreword commitment to defense was bettter, at least that might insulate the crappy goalie until he finds his groove.
People were just fine with our goaltending massively covering our horrible defense for 2-3 years under this core. Now, when our defense has seen a significant improvement despite massive injuries, and goaltending plays horribly, suddenly our defense is atrocious and it's an issue that strikes to a fundemental flaw in how the team is built? No, I'm not buying it.

Defensively, at 5v5, Leafs have gone from 27th in 2017-2018 to 25th in 2018-2019 to 17th in 2019-2020 to 15th under Keefe with significant injuries.
Defensively, on the PK, Leafs have gone from 20th in 2017-2018 to 10th in 2018-2019 to 7th in 2019-2020 to 3rd under Keefe with significant injuries.

Yet 2017-2018 is held up as some holy grail because our journeyman backup goalie decided to play out of his mind as the best goalie in the league in the games he played. Did people expect to jump from last to 1st defensively in a single season? If not, you should be happy with consistent improvement, especially when it comes despite more difficult circumstances.

"Well we could have just suddenly been perfect in every other way" is not justification for dismissing valid criticism for the rightful target in order to blame a target that is less deserving of criticism.
 

Mess

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It’s not hard to explain. The Leafs were trying to play to their offensive strengths as a team and were looking to rely on Andersen to bail them out. An example of this would be like Pat Quinn’s Curtis Joseph led Leafs in 1999 when they took a skilled young group and let them run wild with a superstar goalie to bail them out. Obviously in this case, it’s to very mixed success with Andersen.

And so yes. The goaltending has been poor. But let’s also acknowledge that the team is constructed in a way and coached in a way to make use of their offensive strength as well. And to make this game plan work long term you may need to upgrade the blueline.

Agreed

I believe one of the underlying factors in this reason why Andersen #'s are declining post coaching change that is not often mentioned is player usage ... If you up the TOI/g of your star players increasing their minutes to push the offense, the cost of that is at the expense or your team defense, but also more importantly how longer shifts are not necessarily more productive shifts as tired players cause more turnovers/mistakes and that leads to more high danger scoring chances against or odd man rushes and by extension more qualtity shots and thus goals against etc. This seems to be reflective in Andersen's declining sv% and goaltending stats and perhaps explain why those numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

Many coaches will tell you shorter shifts make for more productive results offensively and defensively based on player energy level during that shift, and where longer shifts can lead to more breakdowns due to fatigue. With the long layoff even star players fitness and conditioning levels will not be at peak performance allowing for the same ATOI/g as previous to the stoppage without expecting adverse fallout effects. This is something worth watching as how teams our Leafs included handle this issue.

Unless we're expecting Andersen to steal games by himself then you would need a more reliable Dcore that you trust defensively to help mask this current Leafs style of play and strategy. IMO
 
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Gary Nylund

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People were just fine with our goaltending massively covering our horrible defense for 2-3 years under this core. Now, when our defense has seen a significant improvement despite massive injuries, and goaltending plays horribly, suddenly our defense is atrocious and it's an issue that strikes to a fundemental flaw in how the team is built? No, I'm not buying it.

Defensively, at 5v5, Leafs have gone from 27th in 2017-2018 to 25th in 2018-2019 to 17th in 2019-2020 to 15th under Keefe with significant injuries.
Defensively, on the PK, Leafs have gone from 20th in 2017-2018 to 10th in 2018-2019 to 7th in 2019-2020 to 3rd under Keefe with significant injuries.

Yet 2017-2018 is held up as some holy grail because our journeyman backup goalie decided to play out of his mind as the best goalie in the league in the games he played. Did people expect to jump from last to 1st defensively in a single season? If not, you should be happy with consistent improvement, especially when it comes despite more difficult circumstances.

"Well we could have just suddenly been perfect in every other way" is not justification for dismissing valid criticism for the rightful target in order to blame a target that is less deserving of criticism.

That's not what he said. Try again.
 
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stickty111

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People were just fine with our goaltending massively covering our horrible defense for 2-3 years under this core. Now, when our defense has seen a significant improvement despite massive injuries, and goaltending plays horribly, suddenly our defense is atrocious and it's an issue that strikes to a fundemental flaw in how the team is built? No, I'm not buying it.

Defensively, at 5v5, Leafs have gone from 27th in 2017-2018 to 25th in 2018-2019 to 17th in 2019-2020 to 15th under Keefe with significant injuries.
Defensively, on the PK, Leafs have gone from 20th in 2017-2018 to 10th in 2018-2019 to 7th in 2019-2020 to 3rd under Keefe with significant injuries.

Yet 2017-2018 is held up as some holy grail because our journeyman backup goalie decided to play out of his mind as the best goalie in the league in the games he played. Did people expect to jump from last to 1st defensively in a single season? If not, you should be happy with consistent improvement, especially when it comes despite more difficult circumstances.

"Well we could have just suddenly been perfect in every other way" is not justification for dismissing valid criticism for the rightful target in order to blame a target that is less deserving of criticism.
Thank you.
 

rumman

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Sep 10, 2008
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Those above categories you listed are unfortunately known strengths of CBJ and weaknesses of our Leafs. CBJ is known as a lunch pail, blue collar, hard working team lead by strong netminding. Our Leafs are a high skilled, fast skating team built for offense.

Which suggest Leafs must overcome their known weaknesses to advance despite their vaulted offense while CBJ if they simply play to their strengths could come out ahead despite their limited offense.

Probably why both teams finished with the same points% and 81 points, they just used different strengths and weaknesses to arrive at that position.

Our Leafs are favoured because of the offense, but I agree they must either outwork, or outplay or have their goaltender outperform the opposition as this will be a hard fought battle.
hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard, lets hope for some next level work ethic from this team............
 

Stephen

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Feb 28, 2002
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People were just fine with our goaltending massively covering our horrible defense for 2-3 years under this core. Now, when our defense has seen a significant improvement despite massive injuries, and goaltending plays horribly, suddenly our defense is atrocious and it's an issue that strikes to a fundemental flaw in how the team is built? No, I'm not buying it.

Defensively, at 5v5, Leafs have gone from 27th in 2017-2018 to 25th in 2018-2019 to 17th in 2019-2020 to 15th under Keefe with significant injuries.
Defensively, on the PK, Leafs have gone from 20th in 2017-2018 to 10th in 2018-2019 to 7th in 2019-2020 to 3rd under Keefe with significant injuries.

Yet 2017-2018 is held up as some holy grail because our journeyman backup goalie decided to play out of his mind as the best goalie in the league in the games he played. Did people expect to jump from last to 1st defensively in a single season? If not, you should be happy with consistent improvement, especially when it comes despite more difficult circumstances.

"Well we could have just suddenly been perfect in every other way" is not justification for dismissing valid criticism for the rightful target in order to blame a target that is less deserving of criticism.

The bolded part of your comment needs to be highlighted as an example of what I mean when I say it's "political." Because the whole premise is based on the notion that our defense has improved by adding Barrie and Ceci to the mix, and job well done Dubas.

After all, we got two RHD and stayed under budget. In theory, we balanced the D pairs, added two skilled players who upgraded the skating and transition game, let's us play less in our own zone and all good. It's an elegant design! But as we saw with how the season played out there was quite a gap between those expectations and the way things really happened on the ice.

At the end of the day, it's much easier to assign blame to Andersen (who deserves it) and Hutchinson (since banished) than looking under the hood to see if there are bigger design problems with why the goaltending is so bad. Cause let's face it, we don't have a lot money moving forward to fix those looming problems.

And like you said, you don't want to think there are deeper structural problems, so you spend your analytical energy trying to downplay them. At the end of the day, it's "political."
 

Mess

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hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard, lets hope for some next level work ethic from this team............

Playoffs tend to do that by nature of the importance of the games now.

You see players give greater % of effort and more willing to take hits to make plays or block shots etc when the season is on the line.

Playoffs tend to elevate and motivate players to compete harder and work smarter.

Our Leafs are not going to go deep in the playoffs on skill alone, it will require hard work and consistent effort that has not always been Leafs trademark during the course of the regular season.
 
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Morgs

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Jul 12, 2015
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Andersen #'s GAA and SV% were better under Babcock system in front the same Dcore than he was under Keefe system. The longer Keefe had to implement his system from taking over in mid November the worse Andersen's sv% got. We're not talking a bad week here, as this sample is trending downwards for months.

Case in point lets look at Freddy Andersen under Sheldon Keefe system.

December totals (11 games) ... .904 sv%
January totals (11 games) ......... .893 sv%
February totals (10 games) ..... .884 sv%

For the record he had a .912 (first 23 games) under Babcock (with a yearly average at .913) and a .908 under Keefe this year, where he finished with a .909 sv% full season.

It seems Andersen is struggling under the new coach's system based on these trending patterns. People are generally putting all that on Andersen personally in a team sport, but how are we ruling out that the new system is not a factor in these stats?

Because the Leafs gave up FAR less shots/chances when Keefe took over. Went from one of the five worst teams in the league defensively to top half of the league over the Keefe stretch.

It's like when Fred had to stand on his head, his stats were good. When the games got easier, he forgot how to goalie. It's why stats people are primarily blaming Fred. It's not because we don't like him or don't believe there are other factors involved, he just played like a bottom 5~ starter when Keefe took over:

Series Talk: - Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!
 

ACC1224

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Aug 19, 2002
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Playoffs tend to do that by nature of the importance of the games now.

You see players give greater % of effort and more willing to take hits to make plays or block shots etc when the season is on the line.

Playoffs tend to elevate and motivate players to compete harder and work smarter.

Our Leafs are not going to go deep in the playoffs on skill alone, it will require hard work and consistent effort that has not always been Leafs trademark during the course of the regular season.
Any idea what their xHardwork number comes in at?
 
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Stephen

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Because the Leafs gave up FAR less shots/chances when Keefe took over. Went from one of the five worst teams in the league defensively to top half of the league over the Keefe stretch.

It's like when Fred had to stand on his head, his stats were good. When the games got easier, he forgot how to goalie. It's why stats people are primarily blaming Fred. It's not because we don't like him or don't believe there are other factors involved, he just played like a bottom 5~ starter when Keefe took over:

Series Talk: - Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

Would be curious to see what the difference between quality chances vs Andersen were between the two coaches, as well as types of scoring chances. Certainly under Keefe we still saw a lot of issues with being able to manage momentum from time to time and you could always see when the Leafs would get burned on the counter attack.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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The bolded part of your comment needs to be highlighted as an example of what I mean when I say it's "political." Because the whole premise is based on the notion that our defense has improved by adding Barrie and Ceci to the mix, and job well done Dubas.

After all, we got two RHD and stayed under budget. In theory, we balanced the D pairs, added two skilled players who upgraded the skating and transition game, let's us play less in our own zone and all good. It's an elegant design! But as we saw with how the season played out there was quite a gap between those expectations and the way things really happened on the ice.

At the end of the day, it's much easier to assign blame to Andersen (who deserves it) and Hutchinson (since banished) than looking under the hood to see if there are bigger design problems with why the goaltending is so bad. Cause let's face it, we don't have a lot money moving forward to fix those looming problems.

And like you said, you don't want to think there are deeper structural problems, so you spend your analytical energy trying to downplay them. At the end of the day, it's "political."

Nobody is saying the defense isn't still a problem. There's always room for improvement.

The reason why a bunch of us are primarily blaming goaltending for what a lot in here consider overall team defense is that under Keefe we played our best defense since the kids came up. Sure it might not always look good to the eye test, but the shot attempts/xGA show a clear gigantic improvement basically the moment Babcock was fired. What's strange about that is Fred (who was having a decent season to that point (.912 sv%) just absolutely fell apart even though the defense improved.

Would be curious to see what the difference between quality chances vs Andersen were between the two coaches, as well as types of scoring chances. Certainly under Keefe we still saw a lot of issues with being able to manage momentum from time to time and you could always see when the Leafs would get burned on the counter attack.

That post has a link that has the Leafs rank in xGA and Freds GSAA under both Babcock and Keefe, and both 5v5 and all-situations.
 

Dekes For Days

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The bolded part of your comment needs to be highlighted as an example of what I mean when I say it's "political." Because the whole premise is based on the notion that our defense has improved by adding Barrie and Ceci to the mix, and job well done Dubas.
The only one to have brought up Ceci or Barrie or Dubas here is you, so that's a weird claim. Our defense has seen significant improvement despite massive injuries. There is nothing about that statement that is incorrect or "political", and it's not only about Ceci/Barrie/Dubas.
In theory, we balanced the D pairs, added two skilled players who upgraded the skating and transition game, let's us play less in our own zone and all good. It's an elegant design! But as we saw with how the season played out there was quite a gap between those expectations and the way things really happened on the ice.
No, there wasn't much of a gap. The only time there is a gap between expectations (especially when including the context of injuries) and what really happened is when you look at a stat like GA that includes the play of TWO positions, and attribute it primarily to the position that has less impact on it, while ignoring all evidence that says otherwise. But that's not an issue with the stats. The an issue with using the GA stat incorrectly.
At the end of the day, it's much easier to assign blame to Andersen (who deserves it) and Hutchinson (since banished) than looking under the hood to see if there are bigger design problems with why the goaltending is so bad.
Actually, as you can see by this and every other thread in this forum, it's quite hard to assign blame to the goaltending, even when it's the beyond obvious rightful target. Lots of pushback. Mistakes happen all of the time in hockey, and they are brushed off as nothing, but if there is any remote trace of a mistake happening at some period of time before a goal, chances are that in the minds of most hockey fans, the goalie will be absolved and the defense will be blamed. Every motion and decision gets micro-analyzed and played on repeat. People tend not to understand or don't want to accept how much impact a goaltender has individually on team results.

Nobody here is against "looking under the hood" to see where the issues really lie. In fact, that's exactly what many of us have done, but the overwhelmingly obvious answer is that the issue mainly lies in our goaltending playing bad this year. I'm not sure why some can't accept that and there has to be some huge convoluted reason. Goaltending fluctuates a lot. That's the nature of the sport.
Cause let's face it, we don't have a lot money moving forward to fix those looming problems.
What looming problems would that be?
And like you said, you don't want to think there are deeper structural problems, so you spend your analytical energy trying to downplay them. At the end of the day, it's "political."
No. At the end of the day, there aren't massive structural problems, so I spend time explaining the facts and data to people who wish to push media narratives. The only ones making it "political" are those willfully ignoring and dismissing the best information we have to make evaluations.
 

TheGroceryStick

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I wont crap on the extended numbers , stats , probability etc.

But this isnt baseball and this is the playoffs.... in which we start with a shortened track meet of a series after a lay off.

Get prepared, and score more goals than they do. Doesnt matter if it's a 6-5 game.... get it done, settle in ...develop on the fly.
 

Mess

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Any idea what their xHardwork number comes in at?

Based on the regular season eye test the x/Hardwork compete analytic was average at best and disappointing at worst. When the going got tough and the checking got tight it seemed the Leafs x/Hardwork factor dropped noticeably to almost disinterested levels at times.

Zach Hyman is really the only Leaf reliable player with a x/Hardwork stat that is among the best in the league, game in and game out, and shift in and shift out. Hopefully more Leaf teammates follow his lead and dog on bone tenacity into battle and engage when it comes to compete level with and without the puck. Fancy skating is not going to get the job done if more players are not willing to get their hands dirty and pull up their socks when required to. IMO
 
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Gary Nylund

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Based on the regular season eye test the x/Hardwork compete analytic was average at best and disappointing at worst. When the going got tough and the checking got tight it seemed the Leafs x/Hardwork factor dropped noticeably to almost disinterested levels at times.

Zach Hyman is really the only Leaf reliable player with a x/Hardwork stat that is among the best in the league game in and game out and shift in and shift out. Hopefully more Leaf teammates follow his lead and dog on bone tenacity into battle and engage when it comes to compete level with and without the puck. Fancy skating is not going to get the job done if more players are not willing to get their hands dirty and pull up their socks when required to. IMO

Is that you Babs?
 

Morbo

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Based on the regular season eye test the x/Hardwork compete analytic was average at best and disappointing at worst. When the going got tough and the checking got tight it seemed the Leafs x/Hardwork factor dropped noticeably to almost disinterested levels at times.

Zach Hyman is really the only Leaf reliable player with a x/Hardwork stat that is among the best in the league game in and game out and shift in and shift out. Hopefully more Leaf teammates follow his lead and dog on bone tenacity into battle and engage when it comes to compete level with and without the puck. Fancy skating is not going to get the job done if more players are not willing to get their hands dirty and pull up their socks when required to. IMO

I really feel you could have squeezed a few more old timey cliches in there Babs. Disappointing.
 
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