Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets - Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

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supermann_98

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I hope this doesn't mean Engvall is out. I think he'd be useful
Engvall is very useful and has speed and reach Robertson can only ever dream of. Engvall will be given the keys to start on the 3rd line because he earned his stripes with Keefe on the Marlies and tbh, he’s a man when you see how jacked and in-shape he is and all that jazz ... BUT, if the team needs a boost from the bottom 2 lines and Engvall is just skating around not moving the needle nor getting involved enough, I could see Robertson getting in the lineup.

Personally I’d put Spezza as 4th line C and have Engvall and Clifford on his wings. That’s a nice little balance of speed, playmaking and grit, while also getting Robertson some scoring opportunities on the 3rd line
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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We are so lucky to have Tavares, his hands and release are amazing, he only looks mortal because Matthews’ hands and shot are even more ridiculous
I think we will definitely see a big difference this year with Columbus' two best centers being Dubois and Wennberg rather than Bergeron and Krejci. Having that kind of advantage down the middle bodes well
 

Stephen

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Feb 28, 2002
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The only one to have brought up Ceci or Barrie or Dubas here is you, so that's a weird claim. Our defense has seen significant improvement despite massive injuries. There is nothing about that statement that is incorrect or "political", and it's not only about Ceci/Barrie/Dubas.

I'm not referring to this conversation in particular, but the ongoing mad lib conclusions that usually fall under categories of "X is surprisingly effective," "since Keefe took over, Y has been much better than at first though" and "it's mostly Z's fault." X and Y variables are usually personnel and defensive characteristics, and Z is goaltending.

No, there wasn't much of a gap. The only time there is a gap between expectations (especially when including the context of injuries) and what really happened is when you look at a stat like GA that includes the play of TWO positions, and attribute it primarily to the position that has less impact on it, while ignoring all evidence that says otherwise. But that's not an issue with the stats. The an issue with using the GA stat incorrectly.

There is no misuse of the GA stat. The Leafs were strong on paper, we expected them to be major contenders but have the Leaf have the 5th worst GA totals in the league as of the stoppage, were barely in a playoff spot as of the shut down.

And no, GA is not a reflection of two positions. It's the result of a whole team effort which can be further broken down into backchecking, prioritizing the attacking game vs commitment to defense, puck recovery, defensive zone coverage, effectiveness in managing a transition game, limiting shot attempts, physical play, shot blocking, goaltending, rebound control, managing momentum shifts, and a host of other factors. It's not simply the defense did their job surprisingly well and Freddie was awful (which he is).

Actually, as you can see by this and every other thread in this forum, it's quite hard to assign blame to the goaltending, even when it's the beyond obvious rightful target. Lots of pushback. Mistakes happen all of the time in hockey, and they are brushed off as nothing, but if there is any remote trace of a mistake happening at some period of time before a goal, chances are that in the minds of most hockey fans, the goalie will be absolved and the defense will be blamed. Every motion and decision gets micro-analyzed and played on repeat. People tend not to understand or don't want to accept how much impact a goaltender has individually on team results.

Freddie has been trash. I don't defend him at all and I question whether he has any kind of future on the Leafs. Hutchinson was even worse. But harping on the goaltending and then making claims that this team is a strong playoff performer, defense is pretty good looks like you're going out of your way to white wash a lot of the other problems on this team.

Nobody here is against "looking under the hood" to see where the issues really lie. In fact, that's exactly what many of us have done, but the overwhelmingly obvious answer is that the issue mainly lies in our goaltending playing bad this year. I'm not sure why some can't accept that and there has to be some huge convoluted reason. Goaltending fluctuates a lot. That's the nature of the sport.

What looming problems would that be?

No. At the end of the day, there aren't massive structural problems, so I spend time explaining the facts and data to people who wish to push media narratives. The only ones making it "political" are those willfully ignoring and dismissing the best information we have to make evaluations.

Are you really going to play the fake news card and represent yourself like the authority on this post mortem?
 

Stephen

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It doesn't. Offense and goaltending do.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall when you're condescendingly explaining this concept to Alex Pietrangelo on why he was able to lift the Stanley Cup last year.

"Alex, before you skate around the rink with that cup, I just want to let you know that Binnington and David Perron are why you're celebrating right now."

maxresdefault.jpg
 
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SeaOfBlue

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They could be trying out Robertson as a proxy for Johnsson if he returns from injury.
 

Kamiccolo

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I think the plan is to go full skill against CBJ based on the lines and based on Rielly's comment earlier "We need to play our game and not change how we play". Engvall is there if that doesn't work and we need to switch it up to a heavier game.

But I think the Leafs are banking on skill overcoming a rusty system.
 

X66

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Aug 18, 2008
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St Louis put everything together at the right time.
Physical team with solid defense.

Fair to say they were an example of the importance of defense in winning a championship.

They had FAR from solid defence when they won the cup, check out their high danger chances given up during that span.

Difference was goaltending bailed them out big time.
 
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CantLoseWithMatthews

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I'd love to be a fly on the wall when you're condescendingly explaining this concept to Alex Pietrangelo on why he was able to lift the Stanley Cup last year.

"Alex, before you skate around the rink with that cup, I just want to let you know that Binnington and David Perron are why you're celebrating right now."

maxresdefault.jpg
Good point. It would have been much more appropriate to stop the presentation of the Conn Smythe to Ryan O'Reilly and point out that it's actually defense that wins cups, not forwards
 
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CatchyTune

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Jan 8, 2016
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I'd love to be a fly on the wall when you're condescendingly explaining this concept to Alex Pietrangelo on why he was able to lift the Stanley Cup last year.

"Alex, before you skate around the rink with that cup, I just want to let you know that Binnington and David Perron are why you're celebrating right now."

maxresdefault.jpg
Just saying...

upload_2020-7-22_21-40-18.jpeg


And year before that

upload_2020-7-22_21-40-35.jpeg
 

Dekes For Days

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I'm not referring to this conversation in particular
You highlighted a part of my post, in this conversation, and labelled it incorrectly, while relating it to things that nobody here has talked about. Maybe we should stick to this conversation and not things you perceive to be happening in other conversations.
There is no misuse of the GA stat.
Yes, there was. If somebody is using GA to evaluate "defense", then they are misusing it. GA is not a measure of defense. It is a measure of defense and goaltending mixed together, and it's most impacted by goaltending.
The Leafs were strong on paper, we expected them to be major contenders but have the Leaf have the 5th worst GA totals in the league as of the stoppage, were barely in a playoff spot as of the shut down.
Leafs were 6th last in goals against, not 5th, and that was primarily due to goaltending. We were 3rd in GF; why no mention of that? Why only the negatives? Why no context about the obstacles we faced this season?

Most of the league was "barely in a playoff spot" as of the shutdown. Only like 7 teams in the league really created separation, and really only the top 4 did it without relying on the shootout. When you're switching coaches mid-season, facing ridiculous amounts of injuries, never winning a shootout, and getting horrible goaltending, it's pretty hard to create separation over 70 games. Did this season go as many of us had planned? No, but that doesn't mean it was a failure. The fact that this team was even in a playoff spot with everything that went wrong is, in reality, evidence of how good this team is. It basically means the floor of this core is 95 points, and the sky is the limit. We still haven't even concluded the season, so maybe hold the judgements.
And no, GA is not a reflection of two positions.
Yes, it is. It is a combination of defense and goaltending.
It's the result of a whole team effort which can be further broken down into backchecking, prioritizing the attacking game vs commitment to defense, puck recovery, defensive zone coverage, effectiveness in managing a transition game, limiting shot attempts, physical play, shot blocking, managing momentum shifts
In other words, "defense".
goaltending, rebound control
In other words, "goaltending".
a lot of the other problems on this team.
Once again, what are these "other problems" you refer to?
Are you really going to play the fake news card and represent yourself like the authority on this post mortem?
Fake news? Post-mortem? What are you even talking about? The data is the authority. Not you. Not me. Facts.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall when you're condescendingly explaining this concept to Alex Pietrangelo on why he was able to lift the Stanley Cup last year.

"Alex, before you skate around the rink with that cup, I just want to let you know that Binnington and David Perron are why you're celebrating right now."
Should I go post a picture of Crosby or Ovechkin lifting the cup and claim that you'd condescendingly tell them:

"Before you skate around the rink with that cup, I just want to let you know that Orlov/Schultz are why you're celebrating right now."

No, because doing something like that would be ridiculous. Just because offense and goaltending are on average more important, it doesn't mean that the team's best players aren't important to the win if they're defensemen. In reality, cup winners don't follow one single formula. It mostly takes being elite in 2 positions, or good-great in 3. But the idea that defense is more important than offense or goaltending is just flat out wrong. It's the opposite.
Stanley Cup Champion, GF/60 rank, regular season

2007-2008: 3rd
2008-2009: 6th
2009-2010: 3rd
2010-2011: 5th
2011-2012: 29th
2012-2013: 2nd
2013-2014: 25th
2014-2015: 17th
2015-2016: 3rd
2016-2017: 1st
2017-2018: 9th
2018-2019: 15th

Average: 9.8

Stanley Cup Champion, xGA/60 rank, regular season

2007-2008: 1st
2008-2009: 17th
2009-2010: 3rd
2010-2011: 20th
2011-2012: 6th
2012-2013: 4th
2013-2014: 8th
2014-2015: 11th
2015-2016: 6th
2016-2017: 27th
2017-2018: 29th
2018-2019: 1st

Average: 11.1

Stanley Cup Champion, Team SV% rank, regular season

2007-2008: 13th
2008-2009: 14th
2009-2010: 24th
2010-2011: 1st
2011-2012: 3rd
2012-2013: 2nd
2013-2014: 2nd
2014-2015: 2nd
2015-2016: 2nd
2016-2017: 10th
2017-2018: 16th
2018-2019: 13th

Average: 8.5

Stanley Cup Champion, GF/60 rank, playoffs

2007-2008: 1st
2008-2009: 1st
2009-2010: 3rd
2010-2011: 5th
2011-2012: 3rd
2012-2013: 6th
2013-2014: 1st
2014-2015: 3rd
2015-2016: 2nd
2016-2017: 1st
2017-2018: 2nd
2018-2019: 5th

Average: 2.8

Stanley Cup Champion, xGA/60 rank, playoffs

2007-2008: 1st
2008-2009: 6th
2009-2010: 10th
2010-2011: 3rd
2011-2012: 4th
2012-2013: 2nd
2013-2014: 12th
2014-2015: 11th
2015-2016: 3rd
2016-2017: 9th
2017-2018: 5th
2018-2019: 4th

Average: 5.8

Stanley Cup Champion, Team SV% rank, playoffs

2007-2008: 3rd
2008-2009: 11th
2009-2010: 9th
2010-2011: 1st
2011-2012: 1st
2012-2013: 4th
2013-2014: 7th
2014-2015: 6th
2015-2016: 7th
2016-2017: 3rd
2017-2018: 5th
2018-2019: 11th

Average: 5.7

So Stanley Cup winners average out to:
-a rank of 9.8 in the regular season and 2.8 in the playoffs for offense
-a rank of 11.1 in the regular season and 5.8 in the playoffs for defense.
-a rank of 8.5 in the regular season and 5.7 in the playoffs for goaltending.

This indicates that level of importance in terms of winning a championship goes:

Offense > Goaltending > Defense
 

Kiwi

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Mar 5, 2016
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We are so lucky to have Tavares, his hands and release are amazing, he only looks mortal because Matthews’ hands and shot are even more ridiculous

Sure you can praise Tavares but did you not see Leafs great Marty Marincin out there to?

Magnificent :sarcasm:
 
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